Updated on 11/14/07 to reflect scratches and show odds:
Pick 4 Ticket:
- Race 5: 5,9,12,
- Race 6: 5,6,8
- Race 7: 2
- Race 8: 3,4,8
Total Cost ($27)
This is my first post detailing upcoming race selections, and will focus on the late Pick-4 (races 5-8) on the Hollywood Park card for tomorrow, 11/14/07. Note that odds were not yet available when these selections were made. Hopefully we’re not entirely chalk heavy here.
Race 5
Looking at this race, there are 14 horses entered and I could make a compelling case for roughly half of them to win. Not exactly the best way to start a handicapping blog, is it? So, with that in mind let’s try and figure this thing out, shall we? Right away you’ll notice there is an abundance of early speed/front running types in this race. While I doubt all of them will go for broke right out of the gate, this does make me look to the horses with more tactical or closing speed for my top selection. I settled on #5 Manhattan Express (7/2) for several reasons. I like his late closing kick and think the race could set up nicely for him. Getting leading jockey Garrett Gomez aboard only solidifies the deal. I like #12 Zayed (6/1) enough to include him as well as I think he may rate a bit off the pace in this one. He’s also got some bullet works in the bag that make me think he is live if he gets a good trip. Of course, if you use him, you’ve also got to include #9 Smokin Forest (9/2), as he’s defeated Zayed twice in his last 3 races.
Selections: #5 Manhattan Express (7/2), #12 Zayed (6/1), #9 Smokin Forest (9/2)
Race 6:
Thankfully race 6 isn’t quite as deep as race 5. I found three horses in here that I think you toss at your own risk. #8 Dealer Choice (5/2) seems to be the logical one to beat and it might be a tall order to do so. He was rank and steadied his last out as a chalk favorite. He’s freshened off a layoff and coming in for the always dangerous Frankel barn. #6 Seeking Answers (3/1) seems to be a player as well with a nice stretch running kick. He is moving up into the 62500 claiming level, which might be a challenge, but I’ll take that as a vote of confidence in his abilities. Rounding out my selections is #5 Midwesterner (7/2), who picks up the aforementioned Gomez and returns to the scene of his best race at Hollywood.
Selections: #8 Dealer Choice (5/2), #6 Seeking Answers (3/1), #5 Midwesterner (7/2)
Race 7:
One of the joys of playing the Pick-4 is determining where to use your single if other races appear deeper. I chose race #7 to use my single play, primarily because races 5 and 8 were so deep. I settled on #2 Mr. Katz (5/2) as my check-mark selection. He ran great his last time over the cushion at Hollywood, and trainer Richard Matlow has some gaudy statistics in our favor here as well (20% Synthetic surface winner, 67% going from turf to synthetics, 35% off the layoff, etc.). If you’re looking to beat me, I’d say that #3 Fly Dorcego (9/5 favorite) and #4 Sohgol (12/1) have the best shots. The horse I can’t quite put my finger on is #1 Masterpiece (7/2).
Selections: #2 Mr. Katz (5/2)
Race 8:
A typical end of the day maiden race with relatively equal horses. I usually look for standout first time starters or horses that have come close in previous races, although those tend to be rather “captain obvious” plays. I think you have to go 3 deep here to cover yourself, beginning with #8 Cheryl’s Surprise (4/1). If she could just carry that speed a bit farther she’d have broken her maiden in her 2nd try. #3 Amybelle (3/1) intrigues me as well. Do note that she competed with La Mina in her last out and finished a respectable 4th. Finally, I’ll toss in #4 Fire n’ Brimstone (7/2). He’s been close in the past, and admittedly I’m hedging my bet here on his Pulpit/A.P.Indy pedigree. Hopefully one of these 4 can bring our ticket home.
Selections: #8 Cheryl’s Surprise (4/1), #3 Amybelle (3/1), #4 Fire n’ Brimstone (7/2)
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