Another week, another set of picks for Hollywood Park. The Wednesday card is full of possibilities and while we don’t get a major headlining Stakes event, we do get an appearance by The Green Monkey, the most expensive horse ever purchased at $16 Million – and this just might be the day he gets his maiden win.
Race 1:
Kicking things off in the opening $44k Maiden Special Weight event are a pair of horses I think have to be covered in the exotics wagers. #7 Gandolf drops in from G2 events in Canada after running competitive against a very good Celtic Dreamin’ last time time out. Stop and read that sentence again, then realize this is a maiden special weight race! Now take a look at the favorite, #6 Any Kind of Storm at 2/1. If you know me in these events, you know that I’ll always side against a horse that has finished 2nd the last 4 out if I can. The only trouble is that this one looks like he could get a perfect trip AND has Corey Nakatani aboard. Still….it’s a rule of thumb to single somewhere in the Pick 4 sequence, and this is the spot I chose. Dangerous indeed, but we didn’t come here to paddy-cake our way through the sequence, did we?
Race 2:
Looking at race #2, the first thing that has to stand out to handicappers is that this is an open claimer for $50,000. Usually you’d see some older guys that were growing a bit long in the tooth but with impressive earnings in such an event, but not today. Instead, only one horse, #3 Justinplace, has put up anything near an impressive winning percentage by winning thrice (that’s right, I just used “thrice” in a sentence) in six attempts. In fact, if you can toss that last race he might be a candidate to single on the Pick 4 ticket. That being said, I’ve decided to put a dusting on #5 Level Red , who certainly looks to be in the kind of form that he could wind up in the winner’s circle with ease. #4 Daytona has every reason to run a big one here as well after dropping back from 62500 and has to be used. I’ll go 3, 4, 5 on the Pick 4 here.
Race #3
Depending on how you see things, this race is either an obvious victory by the 9/5 favorite, #7 Regal Redemption, or a bit more deep then perhaps first appears. I like Regal Redemption, in fact she’s my top choice, but not enough to single her, and certainly not when potential value lurks in some of the logical contenders. Starting from the inside, I think you get a nice pair of horses with a shot by taking the combo of #1 Lots of Sunshine and #1A Peace by Peace. The horse I really give a shot to is #1 Lots of Sunshine here. After that #4 Hey Beautiful is one who I really think can step forward here with the Sadler/Tyler Baze combo. I’ll cover all 4 in my Pick 4 ticket, going 1, 4, 7
Race 4
Perhaps we should call this the Green Monkey Stakes. I mean seriously, if this horse goes 0-3 after being a $16 Million purchase is he suddenly ranked among the all times sports flops? He’s at least dangerously close. Thankfully for The Green Monkey, I happen to think today is his day. I’m tempered in my expectations in that he’s burned similar minded folks his last two times out, so I can’t single with him, but I will use him….especially at 5/2. That’s not bad considering his competition here. #5 Relentless Pursuit is the main threat just to the Green Monkey’s outside, and #9 Rather be lucky looks like he could pick things up very late if it comes down to it. I’ll cover all 3 since as the DRF comments advise, the Green Monkey has to prove himself before we can count on him. We’ll go 4, 5, 9 on the pick 4 ticket.
Early Pick 4:
- Race 1: 7
- Race 2: 3, 4, 5
- Race 3: 1, 4, 7
- Race 4: 4, 5, 9
Total Cost: $27
Race 5:
Race 5 boiled down to two horses for me: #2 Lucky Rylie and #4 Lady in Love. Lucky Rylie is 3 for 3 in the money with 2 wins and looks to be in decent form. Sure the layoff is a concern, but DeLima seems to do well at that angle from a short sampling. If she’s still in good shape after the layoff, she’s the one to beat. #4 Lady in Love picks up G. Gomez and is a huge threat on the Hollywood cushion.
Race 6:
First things first, if #16 Mr. Excessive draws into the field from the Also Eligible list, he becomes the favorite and our whole ticket needs adjusting. Just want to get that disclaimer out there, because I both don’t expect him to draw in and have a tough time taking a #16 as my top choice. Assuming he does not draw in, my favorite is #8 Indian Festival, who appears to be live for the Baffert barn in an otherwise fairly weak field. Apart from him, I expect real improvement from #7 Tommy’s Luck and #3 Johnny Be Bueno and will be using them as well. The main threat to our ticket then would be #14 Unbroken vow, but you’ve got to take a stand somewhere. Blinkers were the deciding factor for me on Johnny Be Bueno and Tommy’s Luck, as they just might be what the doctor ordered.
Race 7:
The elephant in the room in this race is #7 Solemn Promise and that 100 Beyer Speed, but if you’re a speed figure player, haven’t you also got to look at #4 Wild Diplomat, although that 90 was in a maiden special weight race? The horse that I think proves you can’t just handicap using speed figures is #6 Hurry Up Austin, who seems the perfect type to use underneath in exactas and trifectas. I look for Solemn Promise to beat this bunch, but will give the nod to #9 Highway Patrol if he falters with G.Gomez aboard for the hard hitting Clement barn in 2nd.
Race 8:
We’ll end the day with 3 selections in race 8 that look like they could bring the ticket home. Starting with #2 Bayngen Bartok who picks up the ubiquitous Gomez. I think you have to give him top notch for having at least been competitive at the starter allowance and open claiming levels. #8 Ford Island intrigues me enough to get 2nd selection. The workouts may look deceptively unimpressive to the untrained eye, but there’s some good signs there. Also note as stated in the DRF comments that he ran in a G1 in his second try. To answer their question – yes, I think that is a statement of confidence. #6 Black Mallou looks like a contender, although I would say he’s in the next tier down by the slightest of margins. It’s great to get Nakatani back on this one though because if anyone can do it, it’s him.
Late Pick 4:
- Race 5: 2, 4
- Race 6: 3, 7. 8
- Race 7: 7, 9
- Race 8: 2, 6, 8
Total Cost: $36
Good luck!
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