THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

Sunday at Hollywood Park features the return of onetime Derby hopeful Nobiz Like Shobiz in the 66th running of the G1 Hollywood Derby.   Overall, the card looked fairly chalky, but all one need remember is the $200k pick 6 that was hit earlier in the year on what was an otherwise chalky card.  Clearly it pays to play at Hollywood.

Early Pick 4 Ticket:

• Race 1:   1, 6
• Race 2:   5, 7, 8
• Race 3:   3, 8
• Race 4:   2, 7, 8

Total Cost = $36

Race 1

• #6 Sorcerers Spell (4/1)
• #1 Laday Tale (2/1)
• # 3 Forseti’s Question (6/1)

#6 Sorcerers Spell looks like the one to beat here, as he’s well versed at this level.  Last time out he competed with the likes of Langfield, Bullish Yield, and Smart Hit, and I doubt he’ll find similar here. #1 Laday Tale has a chance to get a clear lead and attempt to wire this group.   

Race 2:

• #7 Our Rafaela (5/2)
• #5 Foreign (2/1)
• #8 Silver Moonshine (5/1)

I think that #7 Our Rafaela deserves top honors here.  The filly from Dynaformer also has Storm Cat in her pedigree and it looks like she can clear them all if she gets a good trip.  In case she doesn’t, I’ll also be using #5 Foreign today.  Foreign gets G. Gomez aboard and was moving forward in her last start and should continue to do so today.  #8 Silver Moonshine could get the early lead and be tough to take down, but I’m betting that she gets caught prior to reaching the wire. 

Race 3:

• #3 Midnighter (5/2)
• #8 Political High (7/2)
• #7 Corvinus (10/1)

#3 Midnighter looks like the top horse in this field.  He picks up leading jockey T. Baze and drops in from Alw 48200 N1X territory into this race.  The son of Gulch should move forward today with a return to the synthetic surface.  #8 Political High is another with an excuse to perk up a bit on the cushion track.  The addition of blinkers also suggests a return to previous form, which should be good enough to threaten here.  #7 Corvinus deserves a look on the post parade.  The long layoff is worrisome but this was a promising horse earlier on. 

Race 4:

• #2 Crimson Cowboy (5/1)
• #7 Warren’s Scooter (5/1)
• #8 Father Tim (5/2)

I’ll go three deep in the closer of the early pick 4 sequence today.  #2 Crimson Cowboy looks best to me on paper.  It looks like he was primed to win last time out and came up just short.  #7 Warren’s Scooter can roll as well. I’ll give him one more chance before I label him with a case of seconditis.  #8 Father Tim looks ready to fire in his debut and should absolutely be covered. 

Race 5:

• #2 Wait a While (8/5)
• #1 Lady of Vence (7/2)
• #3 Precious Kitten (9/5)

An incredibly tough race to handicap in the 26th running of the Matriarch G1 Stakes at Hollywood.  I settled on #2 Wait a While as top choice because I think she’ll fire fresh off the recent rest.  She ran well with Lahudood last out and has beaten the other rivals she’ll face  here.  #1 Lady of Venice needs to find some of that better form she had back in early summer.  This ought to be the right distance for that to happen.  #3 Precious Kitten is extremely competitive if you are willing to cross out that last effort, which I am perfectly willing to do. 

Race 6:

• #10 Joy’s Comet (9/2)
• #1 Pointing Star (12/1)
• #3 Fine Flyer (5/2)

I like #10 Joy’s Comet best as I think he’ll be able to handle the distance and surface with the most ease.  Note that he faced the talented Unusual Suspect last time out.  #1 Pointing Star has every right to move forward here as well.  He last faced the very talented Latin Rythms as well as Celtic Dreamin’.  The son of Point Given should be tough in the stretch if he gets a good trip here, but will need some pace to run at.  #3 Fine  could’ve moved forward even further last time out if not for a bump at the start.  He could be a handful today and very tough to take down. 

Race 7:

• #1A Switzerland (5/2)
• #2 Specialist Morgen J (9/2)
• #5 Johnny Eves (3/1)

I think this race will set up nicely for #1A Switzerland to sit a nice stalking trip and get first run at them turning for home.  #2 Specialist Morgen J should perk back up with the return to the Hollywood cushion track.  #5 Johnny Eves should get the early lead here, but I see enough pressure to the front runner that I doubt he could wire this field today. 

Race 8:

• #8 Nobiz Like Shobiz (2/1)
• #3 Daytona (9/2)
• #2 Twilight Meteor (4/1)

I really like what Nobiz Like Shobiz has done since focusing on turf races.  My only concern is the distance, but as this colt was once thought of as a legitimate Derby contender, I can’t say I’m too worried.  #3 Daytona may be the only one with a shot to run at him.  #2  Twilight Meteor should’ve won last time out, and wouldn’t surprise me if he was a thief today. 

Race 9:

• #3 Forest Danz (7/2)
• #7 Semi Lost (3/1)
• #4 Ridingwiththeking (15/1)

I thought there were three horses you had to use in this one, starting with #3 Forest Danz.  He might get a shot to wire the field in this one and has to be used.  #7 Semi Lost is in good form and should get first run at Forest Danz turning for home.  #4 Ridingwiththeking is severely undervalued at 15/1 on the morning line.  His recent form is disconcerting, but he’s run into some pretty good horses with the likes of Megabyte and Snow Fighter. 

Race 10:

• #6 Cohen Thebarbarian (7/2)
• #2 Afleet Ruler (4/1)
• #7 Devil’s Afleet (9/2)
• #5 Bazzoom (6/1)

I thought there were 4 horses here in similar form that had to be covered on the Pick 4.  #6 Cohen Thebarbarian (in addition to having a cool name) was a $500k purchase and has Pulpit, A.P. Indy, and Storm Cat in his bloodlines.  If that speed carries a tad farther this time out, he’s the one to catch.  Considering last time out he ran into Colonel John, the goings should be much easier today. #2 Afleet Ruler looks ready to fire in his debut with G. Gomez aboard.  #7 Devil’s Afleet, in addition to being our 2nd choice with the term “afleet” in his name, just missed at the maiden $100k level last out.  I don’t think he has quite enough to win today, but if anyone can get him a few extra yards it’s T. Baze.  Lastly, #5 Bazzoom deserves some attention here as well.  He faced a tough field including Into Mischief, Zetterberg, and Winds Legacy last out, and should face easier here.  I expect a major move forward today from this one.

Late Pick 4 Ticket:

• Race 7:   1, 2
• Race 8:   3, 8
• Race 9:   3, 4, 7
• Race 10: 2, 5, 6, 7

Total Cost:  $48

Best of luck today and enjoy the end of the Thanksgiving holiday weekend!