The Aspiring Horseplayer figures it is time to give a little more attention to my “local track” at Laurel Park today. Today’s card is nine races, consisting of maiden level races, claimers, and low level allowance races. The best news is that it looks like we’ve got some vulnerable favorites and it seems a terrific day to try and catch some prices at Laurel. I need to disclaim here that I won’t actually be playing my selections today, as I’ll be at work during the races. Still, in the event that any of our regular readers are interested in the racing action at Laurel, I thought it wise to reveal my selections.
Race 1:
The first race of the day is a 6 furlong $16,000 Maiden Claimer for 2 year olds with 7 horses comprising the field. I think we’ve got a standout winner in this one in #5 Big Brother. He’s dropping in from Maiden Special Weight company, which is typically a bit more stout, and has John Rigatierri working him, a veritable ace at these conditions. Perhaps most importantly that 5 furlong workout on November 24th tells me this one will run this competition out of their shoes. I don’t think their is anyone in this field that can compete. #3 Easy Burn is an interesting first timer that is probably worth using at 9-2 on the morning line. I can only foresee the odds-on favorite #1 Thank You Note running for 2nd or 3rd place.
Race 2:
The second race is a much more competitive looking $10,000 claimer for two year old fillies going 1 mile on the dirt. I basically turned the morning line on it’s head in this one, but still thought there were 4 horses that warrant attention here. #1 Love to Date is my check-mark selection, and I expect the drop in from allowance level (even if N1X level) and return of J.D. Acosta will be enough to get this gal home on top. #7 Extria looks like one that folks may overlook at 10-1. I think we haven’t seen the best of this one yet and I’m convinced she can compete here, especially when you look deep on the past performances and see that she finished ahead of my top choice on September 13th. #4 I Don’t Know Maybe has every excuse to wake up off the biggest class drop in the field (in my opinion – some may disagree with me that the 3 horse deserves this honor, but I think of open claimers, even at the $10k level as “potentially” more competitive than low level N2L Allowance races). Lastly, the favorite #8 No Exposure deserves a play as she has one at a longer distance (1 mile and 70 yards), and her last out was flattered when the show horse came back to win.
Race 3:
The third race of the day is a $5000 1 mile claimer for fillies with some whacko conditions. Basically it’s an open claiming race for 3 year old fillies, but a conditional N2L race for older horses. Keep that in mind. #1 Top of the Tree is the standout to me at 5/1. She’s 6 lifetime wins, which is double what the next best horse in the field has, and is only 3 years old and eligible to take a big step forward this late in the year. #4 Carey Blue is my second choice at 7/2, dropping in from a similar $7500 level race. The favorite here is #8 Cat on the Moon at 3/1, but I don’t like favoring horses based on speed figures, however this one is dropping in class and facing less capable runners than her last out in open claiming company. Certainly she’ll have a chance here if she takes to the dirt.
Race 4:
The fourth race is a 6 furlong $7500 claimer. I think this one sets up nicely for the 9/5 favorite #7 Soft Day. She’s a monster at this distance (7 wins in 17 starts) and seems to be in peak form. She sure looks capable of wiring this field, but it’s possible she might get some pace challenge from the 2 and the 4 early on. If she gets cooked, I like #6 Belle’s Reef to pick things up as they reach the wire.
Race 5:
The fifth race on the card is a very interesting 5 1/2 furlong Maiden Special Weight event for $24k. There are several horses I think rate a decent chance to win here. I’ll start with #8 Mass, who probably has the most impressive bloodlines in the race today (being from Pulpit /A.P. Indy on the sire side and with connections to Forty Niner on the dam side). The pedigree hasn’t exactly shown up before, but perhaps today? #10 Bear Buckaroo has been working extremely quick for this group and might be able to crush this group if that speed shows today. #9 Packed is an interesting horse that looked very good in his debut, but than ran into some trouble. He’s been on the shelf for more than a year and will most likely need a race, but don’t be shocked if he shows up. While I won’t be covering this one on the exotics, I’d be anxious to see #7 Indian Max in the post parade at 20/1. If for some reason the race is moved to the main track, don’t forget about the obvious favorite #12 Jazz Seeker.
Race 6:
There isn’t a whole lot of talent in the 6th race today, but it is rather wide open nonetheless. #4 Johnny Wonder is the 3/2 favorite and is the one your eyes land on first. However, he’s finished 2nd five times in a row. Can he be trusted at those odds? The switch to Caraballo could be enough to get it done, but this one seems a bit vulnerable to me. #2 Darwin’s Peak looks like an interesting 1st timer here, and it helps that you’d get the entry mate #2x Extreme Monster as well. Lastly, #7 Changuirongo will warrant a look here as well. I love the cutback angle from over a mile to today’s 5 1/2 furlongs, but is there enough speed here?
Race 7:
The 7th race is a 7 furlong $15,000 claimer of the N2L variety. I like 3 horses in this one. #6 Duck Hunt is the one I settled on as my first choice at 3/1. The switch to dirt leaves many questions to answers, and those last two are not very encouraging for a horse at 3/1, but he certainly seems to have the talent to compete here. #10 Upscaled at 6/1 is very interesting. I like the level of competition he’s used to facing compared to this group. I also like that he’s worked at the 6 furlong distance on October 13th. Long drills are something I often use to separate horses. Lastly, I like #1 Taven’s First Book enough to mandate using him as well, even though he displays the alarming signs of “seconditis” I always caution against. Perhaps he’s more of a bottom filler on the trifectas and exactas? You do get the #1A Wisconsin along with him, so keep that in mind.
Race 8:
The eighth race on the card is a 5 1/2 furlong sprint for 3 year old fillies. Perhaps not surprisingly, there are several very equally talented gals in this one. At first glimpse you might think this is a classic race to “buy”, but at least the last two entries probably can’t run with the first 5. I honestly think any of the first 5 horses in this field can win it, but I’ll make my picks and settle on #3 Cape Codder as my top choice. Obviously the connections think this one is fit as they’ve entered her into a $125k and a $75k event already in her first five races. #4 She’s Not for Sale looks good enough to win here. She just missed her 2nd victory last time out by a neck. Clearly her form has picked up over those last 4 trips. #5 Bonnie’s Glow lost to a fairly talented horse last out and has every excuse to come back and run a big one. One to watch in the post parade is the #2 Forty Nine Roses. She might not look as impressive as some of the others, but she has every reason to step forward today in the August of her 3 year old season.
Race 9:
We end up the day with an ALW $26,000 N1X event at 1 1/16 miles on the turf. I really like #6 Gianna’s Princess in here at 15/1 (I should say especially at 15/1). I know she’s only just graduated from the maiden ranks, but she sure seems fit enough to compete here. #2 Rosamund looks to be in great form having won 2 races in a row. That certainly puts her up amongst the contenders here. Lastly I used #14 Deeliteful Star. I’d prefer having a better post position here, but if she runs anything like her last 2 races, the others will be running for place and show.
Pick 4 Ticket:
- Race 6: 2, 4, 7
- Race 7: 6, 10
- Race 8: 3, 4
- Race 9: 2, 6, 14
Total Cost: $36
I could use a good day this weekend. I’ve been close, but when I do get one, it pays 4-6 bucks. I spent a couple days at Laurel a while back. Are they still doing the reduced takeout on the pick 4′s. I know they did at the beginning of the fall meet. It really makes that Pick 4 an attractive bet. I haven’t done Hollywood yet today, but may get a quick post up later.
Good Luck
Sadly, no – the reduced takeout thing with the pick 4′s and pick 6′s was just a trial attempt to encourage more wagering over a 10-day period or so. I read somewhere that they did have increased wagering volume, but that a complete analysis of how succesful a program it was would take months to dissect. Andy Beyer wrote a piece that was in the DRF about how he liked the program and thought more tracks should do the same. Even worse, they were offering a $.50 cent Pick 6 during the same time, and now it’s back up to $1. I almost never play into the Pick 6 pools, mostly because I can’t stomach making a wager of anything near $100, but for $.50 a combo you almost had to play. I cashed on 5 out of 6 a couple of times before giving up on it and reverting back to my more familiar Pick 4 style.
I hear you about tonight….I haven’t started handicapping yet and will probably just be able to squeeze in blogging the selections.