We’re back with more selections for today’s card at Hollywood Park. There are 10 races today. We’ll focus our handicapping efforts on the early and late pick 4 sequences. Today’s card features the Grade 1 Hollywood Starlet, for promising 2 year old fillies. Up-and-comer Country Star looks to take on contenders such as Grace Anatomy and Set Play. We last saw Grace Anatomy in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile where she obviously didn’t take to the sloppy surface. Perhaps today will spell redemption?
We’ll start with the early pick 4 ticket.
Total Cost : $27
- Race 1: 2, 3, 6
- Race 2: 1, 2, 4
- Race 3: 7
- Race 4: 1, 4, 6
Race 1:
- #6 Ingrid the Gambler (9/5*)
- #2 Toll Road (2/1)
- #3 Ghostly Girl (8/1)
The first race today is a $45k Allowance race for fillies and mares 3 years old and upward going 6 furlongs over the turf track. Right away when handicapping this race it becomes apparent that their is no shortage of front running early speed types. The problem is that the few horses which don’t fit that bill don’t appear talented enough to prevail. I settled on #6 Ingrid the Gambler at 9/5 since she looks like the “speed of the speed.” #2 Toll Road would have to be considered the top rival for said “speed of the speed” title. #3 Ghostly Girl was a late addition to the ticket after I had handicapped other races. I just didn’t feel comfortable playing this race without someone that wasn’t going to rocket for the front. Ghostly Girl split foes down the stretch late in her last outing, and today’s pace setup has to boost her chances.
Race 2:
- #2 In Daddy’s Honor (8/5*)
- #4 Hawaiian Afleet (5/1)
- #1 Naturally Perfect (6/1)
The second race of the day is a 32000 Maiden claimer for 2 year old fillies going 6 furlongs over the main track. The race features a fairly strong favorite in #2 In Daddy’s Honor. She sports the lethal Baze/Mitchell combination (36% when combined 2006 through 2007) and moves in from the 14th position last out. #4 Hawaiian Afleet does have improvement written all over here though and I didn’t think you could toss her with Talamo taking the mount. Lastly, #1 Naturally Perfect shows signs of being a live first timer. This isn’t exactly a field to be intimidated by, and note that Potts is hitting at 36% for the Jeff Mullins barn. I’ll take that at 6/1 all day long.
Race 3:
- #7 Si Chimi (2/1*)
Today’s third race is a 12500 open claimer for 3 year olds and upward going 1 1/16 miles over the main track. Like the Spartans at Thermopylae, it is here that we have decided to make our stand!!! In looking over the field, I decided I would be thoroughly surprised if #7 Si Chimi didn’t prevail today. He’s taking the biggest drop of the field (from Alw 50400 level) and picking up M.C. Baze. He’s also the most accomplished runner at this distance and at Hollywood in this field. That should be too much for the others to overcome and I can’t see any of them with a strong chance to prevail. This seemed the logical place to take a stand and defend the ticket. If we get past this we pretty much sail home. Can you feel the drama building already? Enough of that…..let’s not get ahead of ourselves here.
Race 4:
- #1 Vital Force (7/1)
- #6 Dancing Wildfire (5/2)
- #4 Dr. Zaentz (2/1*)
We wind up the early pick 4 sequence with a Maiden Special Weight event for $42k going 6 furlongs over the turf. Hopefully we’ve made it past our single in race 3 and can take advantage of the opportunity to go a little deep here and cover the logical win selections to round out the ticket. #1 Vital Force was the beaten favorite last time out from the Bob Baffert barn. it looks like he encountered some difficulty as the comment line denotes he was steadied at the first turn. If he gets a better trip today it appears he has a good chance to break the maiden here. #6 Dancing Wildfire is a debut horse for the Neil Drysdale barn that has attracted the attention of jockey Garrett Gomez. Drysdale is always liable to fire with his first time starters and the workouts appear at least decent for this one. #4 Dr. Zaentz is one we’ve played before and has the makings of a vulnerable favorite to me. Still, in maiden events it doesn’t take much to convince me to back horses that have at least been in-the-money after previous efforts, and Dr. Zaentz has finished 2nd in 3 of his last 5 attempts, including the most recent 2. I’ll play him one more time here, although I don’t like the odds.
Late Pick 4 Selections
Total Cost: $36
- Race 7: 3, 7, 8
- Race 8: 2, 6
- Race 9: 2, 3, 13
- Race 10: 12, 13
Race 7:
- #8 Fast Thought (9/5*)
- #7 Victorian Prince (4/1)
- #3 Chancellor (3/1)
The seventh race is a very competitive $48k N1X Allowance race going 1 mile over the turf for 3 year olds and upward. #8 Fast Thought is the horse that stands out the most with 2 very impressive tries for his career. He seems to have the talent to be a stakes winner if he can continue to progress. #7 Victorian Prince is another that simply looks to be in super form. That last race is deceptively unflattering as it was his debut in the U.S. I love playing European horses in turf races and this one looks to have enough form to win here. He sure took some action at the window last time out. #3 Chancellor is an interesting play dropping in from the $80k optional claiming level. As the DRF strongly advises, do note that this one is a half brother to Toccet, who won multiple G1 stakes races.
Race 8:
- #2 Grace Anatomy (5/1)
- #6 Country Star (3/1*)
The feature race on today’s card is the Grade 1 Hollywood Starlet for 2 year old fillies going 1 1/16 miles over the main cushion track. #6 Country Star is the one everyone is talking about and rightly so. She comes in off of two solid races in her career including a triumph in the G1 Alcibiades at Keeneland in her last effort. The problem is that today’s event doesn’t figure to give quite as much pace as there was in the Alcibiades, which will make it harder for Country Star to deliver that late kick that allowed her to triumph in the past. #2 Grace Anatomy ran third behind Country Star in the Alcibiades and then came back to disappoint in the slop on Breeder’s Cup day at Monmouth. I’m willing to forgive both efforts. The hot pace in the Alcibiades and the slop at Monmouth are enough for me to suspect that today’s conditions will be more to Grace’s liking. She should be parked right behind Foxy Danseur and get first run at that one as they approach the wire. Note that if anyone else on the ticket scratches, Foxy would be my top alternate. She’s probably the biggest threat to our ticket in the entire sequence.
Race 9:
- #3 Excessive B and B (5/1)
- #13 Adarlyn Cat (5/1)
- #2 Phoebe’s Song (4/1)
A rather large field presents itself in today’s 9th race, a $25k N2L open claimer for fillies and mares 3 years old and upward going 6 1/2 furlongs on the main cushion track. #3 Excessive B and B looks like a threat to wire the field here. The return to the cushion track could be enough to improve this one even further. #13 Adarlyn Cat turned in a pretty good performance last out in my opinion. We covered that race with a winning pick 4 selection and I remember seeing this one make a late run at Kula Girl. She sure seemed to enjoy the cushion at Hollywood and a repeat of that effort would most likely prevail today. #2 Phoebe’s Song has been running well against horses I think highly of, such as Asian Eyes, Carly Effect, Sportie’s Squeeze,and Placid Lake. It looks like he last race was a bit of a learning experience and I’m willing to bet that she’s better from it. Typically a front running type, she now knows she can compete from the rear if she blows the start. Perhaps somewhere inbetween the front and the rear is her true best position?
Race 10:
- #13 Renees Beauty (8/1)
- #7 Rockinanrollin (8/1)
We end the day with a maiden claimer for fillies going 6 furlongs over the main track for $32k. Surprisingly, I wound up backing two 8/1 long-shots in this one. Call me crazy, but the rest of the field just didn’t really do anything for me. #13 Renees Beauty was backed as the favorite in her debut and then blew the start. Scratch that race off and expect improvement. Melody Conlon doesn’t run many at this meet, but those that do run are hitting at ridiculous 40% clip (2 for 5). Talamo decided to take a chance with this one and so will I. Likewise,#7 Rockinanrollin seemed to find her grove late in her debut, moving from 11th to 6th before all was said and done. With that experience under her belt she should improve, and trainer Mike Puype is hitting at almost 20% with 2nd time starters.
Best of luck to all the Aspiring Horseplayers out there. We’ll be back tomorrow with Sunday Selections from Hollywood Park .
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