Tiago, the half brother to 2005 Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo, is set to run in Saturday’s Grade 2 San Fernando Stakes at Santa Anita. When we last saw Tiago he was chasing Curlin, Awesome Gem, Hard Spun, and Street Sense in the Breeder’s Cup Classic at Monmouth. He finished 5th that day in the horrid conditions and has been in training ever since preparing for his 4 year old campaign.
I’ve liked Tiago ever since his triumph in the Santa Anita derby last spring. In fact, he was one of the horses I played in last year’s Kentucky Derby along with Curlin and Hard Spun. Obviously he didn’t prevail, but the colt has continued to develop nicely for trainer John Shirrefs. Tiago is 4 for 9 lifetime with two grade 1 stakes victories in the Santa Anita derby and the Goodwood. Additionally, he triumphed in the grade 2 Swaps at Hollywood Park on July 14. You can check out the replay of Tiago’s thrilling victory in the Goodwood stakes against Awesome Gem (who finished 3rd behind Curlin and Hard Spun in the Classic) below.
An off the pace type, Tiago will need some pace to run at in order to prevail. The good news is that he should get just that with the entry of Sir Beufort stakes winner Monterrey Jazz to the outside, and grade 1 Malibu stakes winner Johnny Eves towards the inside. The bad news is of course the uncertainty surrounding exactly which surface Tiago will be running on.
As of Friday night, no official announcement concerning the fate of the synthetic surface at Santa Anita has been announced. Heavy rains last week created dangerous conditions that forced the cancellation of many races. Tiago shouldn’t be too bothered either way in my opinion. In fact, he’s prevailed on both synthetic and dirt surfaces at Santa Anita.
Considering I was willing to play Tiago in the Kentucky Derby against the other 3 year old top dogs, it goes without saying that I expect him to prevail here. Tiago is currently listed as the third ranked older horse in the Daily Racing Form standings compiled by Mike Watchmaker, just behind Curlin and Daaher.
The San Fernando represents the only race I feel safe enough to wager on for the Saturday Santa Anita card. Until more information is known about the fate of the synthetic surface there, I’ll be playing it cautious and taking a “wait and see” approach.
Look for Tiago to be flying late as the field rumbles down the stretch. He faced a historically speed biased track in the Breeder’s Cup Classic, and while the Santa Anita track has been favoring speed somewhat in recent racing days, he has the experience at this location to prevail. After all, it was here at Santa Anita that he first became a true Kentucky Derby contender when he closed from 9th to 1st in the Santa Anita Derby to defeat King of the Roxy, Sam P and others.
Put simply, if he was good enough for me in the Derby, he’s good enough for me here. I’d use Johnny Eves, Monterrey Jazz, and Ravel to fill out the ticket, and possibly consider using Great Hunter, who should also benefit from the pace setup and is quite capable of better than we saw last out in the Malibu.
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