Saturday was up and down for me at Santa Anita. We hit 7 out of 9 races in the selections, but both pick 4′s were burned. We had 3 double digit winners with Outlaw James, Trick’s Pic, and P Town Princess, but particularly early in the first two races did not have the two long-shots of the day. Sunday brings a chance at redemption with 10 races on the card. The feature event of the day is The San Pedro for $75,000.
Race 1
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#2 Lady in Love (5/2*)
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#4 Debbie Ginsburg (4/1)
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#1 Carly Effect (9/2)
The first race is an open claimer for $62k for fillies going 7 furlongs over the main track. #2 Lady in Love goes out for the Gomez/Hollendorfer jockey/trainer tandem and hast to be respected. She excels on the synthetics and should be tough to beat. #4 Debbie Ginsburg looks like she was simply outmatched in that last race. I like the return to M.C. Baze who has been aboard for a winning trip at this distance back on 6/24/07. #1 Carly Effect is a horse I tend to use even though she’s very hit or miss. If you scratch off that last race she seems playable with this field.
Race 2
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#2 Cultured (3/1*)
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#1 Silver Dust (5/1)
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#3 Pointed Home (4/1)
The second race is a $50k maiden claimer going 1 mile over the main track. #2 Cultured should get the lead here based on that last effort. Perhaps the cut back in distance from 1 1/16 will help as well. That workout on 1/17 at Santa Anita looks deceptively good to me as well. #1 Silver Dust drops back down to the level he originally tried. His loan attempt over the synthetic surface was really his best effort thus far. #3 Pointed Home takes the biggest collective class drop of the field compared to what he’s been facing. Perhaps the blinkers can wake him up? He may need to be involved more early on to get up in time though.
Race 3
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#6 Chhaya Dance (2/1*)
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#5 Austie (7/2)
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#7 Stormin Jack (6/1)
The third race is a $40k starter allowance going 6 furlongs over the main track. $#6 Chhaya Dance is a son of A.P. Indy with much to like about him. He cuts back to 6 furlongs after just missing at 1 mile on the turf. The risk is that it’s the first try on the synthetic surface, but there isn’t a whole lot to be scared of in this field. #5 Austie looks like the logical competition. She should get the benefit of a hot pace today and I could see this one coming on strong late trying to steal it. #7 Stormin Jack had me waffling a bit. I thought of using #1 instead, but settled with Stormin Jack because I think he’ll at least be forwardly placed and involved early on and he has won despite being in a speed duel before.
Race 4
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#4 Cajun Gent (2/1*)
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#3 No Lien Here (12/1)
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#8 High Stakes Silver (5/2)
The fourth race is a maiden special weight for $48k going 6 furlongs over the main track. #4 Cajun Gent looks like a life debut colt for John Shirreffs, who is plugging away with 20% winners in their initial attempts. His sire has produced 19% debut winners, and that’s enough for me to take notice especially when coupled with the solid workout tabs and trainer form. #3 No Lien Here should have more ability than what was shown in the debut considering he was a $400k purchase last February. Nakatani takes the reins and will try to move this one forward today. #8 High Stakes Silver is an interesting debut horse for trainer Craig Dollase who also wins at a 20% clip with such horses.
Race 5
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#6 Minister Blair (7/2)
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#2 Dealer Choice (5/2*)
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#1 Uffizi (6/1)
The fifth race is an open claimer for $50k going 1 1/8 miles over the turf course. #6 Minister Blair looks like the logical choice to take the lead in an otherwise pace-less race, which means instant gate-to-wire threat. #2 Dealer Choice was once running against Graded Stakes company, and although those days have passed he seems nicely placed here. #1 Uffizi defeated Dealer Choice last out but closed into a decent pace. He probably won’t be so lucky today, but came up as my 3rd choice nonetheless.
Race 6
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#5 Rock Creek Pass (5/2*)
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#6 The Emerald King (6/1)
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#7 Slews the Believer (7/2)
The sixth race is a $25k maiden claimer going 5 1/2 furlongs over the main track. #5 Rock Creek Pass looks like the natural top choice here. he’s got some nice early zip and is cutting back from 1 1/6 miles to today’s distance. The last bullet work looks t have him on his toes. #6 The Emerald King is one I’d rather not use but kept coming back to. I typically won’t touch a 6 year old maiden, but this is bottom-rock company for Santa Anita so if he’s ever going to get it done it’s here…..despite the fact that he’s already 0-3 so far at this level. The workouts suggest there is more here, but then again it’s hard to trust workouts at Santa Anita anymore as they all look lightning fast. #7 Slews the Believer always winds up in the tri or superfecta.
Race 7
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#8 Battle Won (5/2)
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#7 Pass the Heat (8/1)
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#1 El Manuel (7/2)
The seventh race is an $80k optional claimer N3X going 6 1/2 furlongs over the downhill turf course. #8 Battle Won drops in from the Grade 1 level and has to be considered the top dog. #7 Pass the Heat is quite playable at 8/1. Note the turf record (4 -3-0-1) and the switch to Tyler Baze as jockey. William Morey does a good job with limited starters and the workouts and Beyer figures look in order to compete here. Upset specialist! #1 El Manuel drops in from the $125k level and the Grade 3 level prior to that. He’s got 3 wins in 7 tries over the turf for his career. It was close between him and #2 Don’t Ya Lovett for my 3rd pick, and honestly there are a couple of other horses you could make cases for in here as well. Not exactly the best race to start a pick 4 sequence on, so I may pass on that play and just play win bets today along with trifectas and exactas.
Race 8
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#4 Irish Express (5/2*)
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#7 Warren’s Adventure (5/1)
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#5 Gone Californian (9/2)
The 8th race of the day is an open $16k claimer for fillies going 6 furlongs over the main track. #4 Irish Express won last out at the $12.5k level and retains the services of Corey Nakatani as jockey. Should be able to sit a stalking trip and get first run turning for home. #7 Warren’s Adventure drops in from the starter allowance levels. She’s flashed some talent before and it’s good to see Gomez stick around. I’d expect a move forward today. #5 Gone Californian was right there with Irish Express in their last meeting. Probably better suited for the exacta and trifecta but she came up as my 3rd choice.
Race 9
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#8 Sea of Pleasure (2/1)
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#6 Gayego (9/2)
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#2 Cardinal Zin (6/1)
The 9th race of the day is the 17th running of the San Pedro for $75k going 6 1/2 furlongs over the main track. I’m going to play beat the favorite here with #3 Meal Penalty and not even list him in the selections. That’s largely because I think #8 Sea of Pleasure will win this race with no contest. He’s 2 for 2 and will break from the outside today but should head straight for the front. Will have to hold some of the others off in the stretch and this will be his biggest challenge thus far. #6 Gayego looks to be a bit overlooked on the morning line at 9/2. Both lifetime starts have been impressive and I could see this one stealing it late from off the pace. #2 Cardinal Zin is confidently stepped up from a maiden score last lout. This one looks talented to me and I’m expecting him to make himself known today in the stretch. Might not get up for the win but should at least threaten for in the money.
Race 10
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#9 Justice is Brief (5/2*)
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#11 Geribeca (8/1)
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#4 Christiana’s Heat (12/1)
We end the day with a $28k starter allowance (N2L) going 1 mile over the turf course. #9 Justice is Brief returns to the turf where some of her best races have been run. #11 Geribeca is a threat from the outside coming off a nice progression through maiden ranks and a very good first try at this level last out missing by a length. #4 Christiana’s heat perked up in her second trip over the turf, but goes back to the mile distance that she struggled at previously. Nakatani gets the call and is hitting at a 30% clip when paired with Barry Abrams horses. Workout on January 16th suggests she’s ready to roll today at long odds.
Best of luck, and as always be sure to check for late scratches and/or changes to the card.
Don’t mean to hi-jack your Santa Anita thread. But have a couple thoughts/insights for you.
First off, I just got done doing the speed figures for yesterdays Laurel card and Ah Day got a 114 Beyer Figure for winning the Fire Plug stakes. This card came up pretty straight forward ( makes sense, no real variations/track changes ), unless you split this race out from the rest of the card, the 114 makes perfect sense. I don’t like to split single races out like that without concrete, no other way type evidence. Obviously I’m very interested to see what the Beyer Boys do with this number, my guess is they split it out but I could be wrong. If they do that ( it will probably come back about 100-105 ), you’ll want to check back here the Sunday before Presidents Day when Ah Day shows up in the General George, he could end up being an overlay depending on who else shows up.
Riddle me this one ( and this is good info to have to handicap with ), since the winter weather has set in, 16 of 57 ( 28% ) races have been won wire to wire going 6 furlongs, however only 10 of 65 ( 15% ) of winners have gone wire to wire at 7 furlongs. So it would make sense that ( atleast to me ) the percentage of wire to wire wins would drop going 1 mile right? Wrong! 23 of the 73 ( 32% ) 1 mile races have gone wire to wire in the same time period. Interesting huh? I’m not sure the track or surfac has anything to do with it. I think it is more the jockeys ride the races much differently. It seems they don’t take into consideration that extra furlong going from 6 to 7 furlongs and ride it like a normal sprint race. Add in the 8th furlong and call it a one mile race and they are all taking hold and waiting to make a late run, all the while the horse on the front end gets away with a 24.0 or slower first quarter and turns it into a 6F sprint. That is my theory, perhaps the chute plays differently from the race of the track but my money is on the races being run and ridden differently.
Yesterday and Friday played out just like I had mentioned on here that Laurel does when it gets significant rain/snow. Friday, the first day, was sloppy/muddy and played towards speed ( 4 wire to wire winners of 9 races ) while Saturday was fast/good and played off the pace ( 0 wire to wire winners of 10 races ). I’d imagine it will be back to normal tomorrow, though with the sub-freezing temps the rail could be golden. Last winters favorable rail/stalking trip has only materialized once or twice this winter, last year it went for about all of Jan/Feb.
Mucho Margaritas goes tomorrow in the 8th race, seems to fit and in his last race I gave him a speed figure of 87 in his last, as oppose to the 79 he got from the Beyer guys. He looks like 2nd or 3rd choice but I think he’ll be tough. Didn’t look at the rest of the card, I’ve been waiting for him to run back after doing the figs for the card and seeing how the race was rated Beyer wise.
Wow….brutal. Did you see that succession of longshots at SA today?
R5 $26.80
R6 $27.80
R8 $39.60
R9 $10.20
R10 $29.60
It’s too dangerous to play that track. I’ll be in Los Angeles all of next week and away from my PC. I might switch to Oaklawn when I come back.
Phil, about your laurel track analysis. That’s mighty fascinating about the wire to wire winner statistics. Do you think it has anything to do with the turns? I remember in Davidowitz book he talks about the turns at Laurel as being the “toughtes piece of real estate in Maryland” during a meet there in the 70′s.
Funny you mention that about Santa Anita, my last real good day betting Santa Anita was the first analysis I put on your blog for that place. Think I had a $289 pick 3 for a dollar, two nice doubles in succession and was alive for like $2000 and $6000 in the pick 4 for a dollar. Didn’t get the pick 4 but the pick 3 and doubles made, plus I think the 2nd race exacta was decent which made it a real nice day. Since than I have either been spinning my wheels or going backwards so I laid off for a bit. I’ve been watching the races but can’t seem to figure out what I’m missing so I’m going to let them run for awhile ( the early days of the meet I did well just on trainer intentions … looking at who was winning early or horses that were pointed to certain spots, etc. if you remember that analysis I spoke of above I really never mentioned anything about the horses form, it was all trainer ) and see what happens when the track becomes stable ( perhaps an excuse for my poor handicapping but who knows lol ).
Oaklawn is a place I like to let run for a bit before I get serious, especially since they have an abundance of ship-in horses, trainers and jockeys ( Tampa Bay, Gulfstream, Fair Grounds, etc. are others I steer clear of for awhile unless I catch an angle with a trainer or the track ). There is no Arkansas “circuit”, so most of these horses come from different tracks and I like to see how they fit at Oaklawn. Plus I like to see which trainers are coming out guns a blazing and which ones are giving the stock they brought a race before getting serious. Add into the equation that Oaklawn revamped the surface this year and you end up with quite a few unknowns, too many for my liking.
I don’t have answers for the Laurel track. I really would attribute the wire to wire statistics to how the races are run/ridden. I can’t imagine the 2 furlongs out of the chute could affect the race that much, that is only 25% of a 1 mile race, so the jockey/pace is my guess. The only other idea I have that makes sense and has made sense to someone else I spoke with this about was that the 1 turn mile is usually recognized as the most demanding type of race on a horse, so I think no matter the pace, class etc all the horses are tired by the final couple furlongs and just can’t make up any ground. The times kind of support that because most 1 mile races at Laurel come home very slow, meaning the final fractions are pedestrian but no one is making up ground anyways.
As far as the dead rail is concerned after a rain, what happens at a lot of tracks ( You make several Davidowitz mentions in your post … in his book “Betting Thoroughbreds” he makes mention of the same “bias” at Saratoga and the Fair Grounds and explains it this way ) is that the banking of the racetrack flows the water towards the rail. Which means the rail is the last part of the track to dry out causing it to be deeper than the outer paths the day or two after a significant rain. In my theory, when we get a snow/rain and than a deep freeze the days following the rail is good because that water gets trapped along the rail and than freezes, making the rail path firmer and less tiring. If it doesn’t freeze the rail is dead. Beyer makes a mention of such a bias at Bowie in a few of his books, although it was in the middle of the track and noticeable to the naked eye on the surface of the track in that instance.
Ah Day’s Beyer fig for the Fire Plug just got posted on the DRF leaderboard … they gave him a 109.