THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

The weekend kicks off with a big day of racing at Santa Anita on Saturday.  We’ve got an 11 race card to cover including 5 Stakes races.  Tiago is back in action looking to turn the tables on Air Commander in the Grade 2 Strub.  Hysterical lady, who finished second behind Eclipse Award winner Ginger Punch in the Breeder’s Cup Distaff heads a field of 6 in the Grade 1 Santa Monica Handicap.  Awesome Gem drops in from the Thunder Road Handicap after finishing 3rd behind Curlin and Hard Spun in the Breeder’s Cup Classic.   The feature races appear to be a bit favorite heavy, but let’s take a closer look at the card and see if we can’t separate out some winners nonetheless.

Race 1

• #1 Two Turns (4/1)
• #12 Bearing Point (15/1)
• #13 Dee’s Fling (7/2)

The first race is a $25k maiden claimer going 1 1/8 miles over the main track.  #1 Two Turns ran a pretty good race last time out to grab second late.  I could see this one rolling again late as long as the inside post doesn’t cause a problem. #13 Dee’s Fling will have to draw in from the also eligible list in order to run, but if he does it looks like he would be a huge threat to beat this field.  There’s not a whole lot of talent here and the outside post could be an issue, but most of those to the inside appear to be slightly lesser.  #12 Bearing Point takes the biggest class drop of the field from Maiden Special Weight $45k level.  That’s an angle I always give a lot of attention to since the special-weight ranks are usually so much more competitive than these relatively cheap maiden claimers.  I’ll take 15/1 on such a drop all day long.

Race 2

• #2 Lavender Sky (8/5*)
• #9 Forest Melody (9/2)
• #8 Le Cirque (15/1)

The second race is a $40k N1X optional claimer for fillies and mares 4 years old and upward going 1 1/4 miles over the turf.  #2 Lavender Sky looks like the obvious choice here dropping in from solid performances in back to back Grade 2 events.  The 102 Beyer speed figure last time out leaps off the page.  Note that she ran 3rd behind Citronnade in the Dahlia at Hollywood on December 16.   Everyone else should be running for place and show.  To fill out the single race exotics, I like the looks of #9 Forest Melody and #8 Le Cirque.  Forest Melody  could attempt to strike the front, or could decide to rate a bit due to the extreme outside post position.  Her last three races look impressive enough to me to consider her the top pick for place honors.  #8 Le Cirque picks up Eclipse Award winner Joe Talamo and has been moving well late.  Talamo could get a little brave here and try to get her rolling in the final strides.  I could see her passing most of these late and grabbing show honors.

Race 3

• #3 Behindatthebar (6/5*)
• #4 Tiz West (3/1)
• #9 El Martillo (8/1)

The third race is maiden special weight for $49k going 7 furlongs over the main track.  #3 Behindatthebar willl take all the play at the windows here and for obvious reasons.  He ran a heck of a debut to finish 2nd behind Afleet Ruler and his workouts look exceptionally sharp.  This one may be a one horse race as well if he’s able to improve off that 1st effort.  #4 Tiz West stretches out from 6 furlongs and picks up Rafael Bejarano.  That wasn’t a bad debut to grab show honors last time out.  I could see this one moving forward today with the added distance and experience.  Richard Mandella is hitting with roughly 1/4 of his 2nd time starters.   #9 El Martillo obtains the services of Garrett Gomez and drops in from the $52k level.  Note that he’s cutting back from 1 1/16 today and that there’s a chance from looking at his first two races that 7 furlongs might be his ideal set up.  It’s all speculation of course, but what else have you in such events.  The class drop isn’t much, but it’s enough to expect a modest move forward at least.   There’s a horse I’m anxious to see in the post parade before assessing and that’s #8 Streets of Heaven.  I might be convinced to toss this one in if he looks good. 

Race 4

• #7 Tommy’s Luck (6/1)
• #4 Coronas at Delmar (3/1)
• #5 Warren’s Attack Cat (6/1)

The 4th race is a $40k Starter Allowance N2L for 3 year olds going 7 furlongs over the main track.   #7 Tommy’s Luck looks very playable to me here at 6/1.  He’s dropping in from the San Pedro where he finished 4th behind the talented Gayego last out.  I like that he’s won at this distance in the maiden claiming levels before.  Also note that he’s been moving really well at Hollywood in recent workouts.  For the life of me I can’t figure out what was going on in the morning line to make this one 6/1.  He seems the logical choice here to me. #4 Coronas at Delmar looked like a contender to me as well.  He’s always right there in the thick of things.  He’ll get an extra furlong to run at today and should get a better setup than he did last time out. #5 Warren’s Attack Cat seems to be progressing as he gets more experience and has been finishing well in his last few races.  I could see this one getting place or show late, but he’ll need his best effort to prevail. 

Race 5

• #2 Crown of Thorns (9/5*)
• #3 Coast Guard (9/2)
• #1 Indian Sun (5/2)

The 5th race of the day is our first Graded Stakes event on the card, the $200k Grade 2 R. B. Lewis for 3 year olds going 1 1/16 miles over the main track.  #2 Crown of Thorns is a colt a lot of people are whispering about.  He ran away breaking his maiden by 7 lengths last time out and posted a very respectable 92  Beyer speed figure.  I’ll make him the top selection since there’s nothing I love more than a fastly improving 3 year old this time of year.   Still, this race came up wide open to me despite only drawing a 5 horse field.  In fact, the only one I can’t see winning is #5 Meal Penalty, so let the tote board dictate your options here.   You can make a case that #3 Cost Guard is a threat to take the lead and try to wire them.  Crown of Thorns should be just behind him, but if those two go at it than suddenly things open up for Indian Sun and Reflect Times.   Of the two I sided with Indian Sun in the selections because of the class advantage from having run in Graded Stakes before and given a decent account of himself. 

Race 6

• #4 Ariege (8/5*)
• #7 Passion (7.2)
• #2 Fanatical (15/1)

The 6th race is the Grade 3 La Habra for $100k going 6 1/2 furlongs over the downhill turf course.  #4 Ariege seems to be the logical top selection after seemingly encountering a trip from hell last time out.  The comments indicate she was “blocked” and “steadied”, yet she still gave a good account of herself.  #7 Passion is a horse I’ve used before successfully.  She’s one for one over the downhill turf course thus far, which can be tricky the first time around to many horses.  #2 Fanatical looks like a very playable contender at the morning line odds of 15/1.  I think a lot of times we tend to skim over the European running lines and not give them as much attention. Some of the information looks slightly foreign to amateur horseplayers.  Note that we’re dealing with a deceptive 7th place finish last time out.  The race was a lot closer than it looks on paper.  The post parade will make or break the play on this one, but if she’s shipped well and makes a good appearance she could be mighty dangerous at long odds.

Race 7

• #5 Hystericalady (6/5*)
• #1 Pussycat Doll (2/1)
• #2 Society Hostess (8/1)

The 7th race is the Grade 1 Santa Monica Handicap for fillies and mares four years old and upward going 7 furlongs over the main track for $250k.  #5 Hystericalady was last seen finishing 2nd behind eventual Eclipse Award winner Ginger Punch in the Breeder’s Cup Distaff.   The 104 Beyer tht day in the slop screams off the page, as do many of her previous efforts. Clearly this is the one to beat today.    She gets Bejarano back aboard today and he’s won with her before.  #1 Pussycat Doll looks like the biggest threat but she might have to push a bit breaking from the rail. #2 Society Hostess is my longshot of the race as she’s at least a Graded Stakes winner, albeit at the G3 level last January. 

Race 8

• #3 Awesome Gem (4/1)
• #7 Lang Field (9/2)
• #4 Storm Military (5/2*)

The 8th race is the Thunder Road Handicap for four year olds and upward going 1 miles over the turf course.   #3 Awesome Gem ran gamely behind Curlin and Hard Spun in the Breeder’s Cup Classic last time out, eventually passing Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense.  I don’t see any horses like that in this field, so I’ll play him at 4/1.  True, the turf might be a concern, but if he could handle that slop at Monmouth, I’ve got to think he’ll be fine today….even if that was dirt in the Classic.  #7 Lang Field and #4 Storm Military look like logical contenders as well.  Lang Field is a threat to get lose on the lead and try to wire the field.  #4 Storm Military cuts back to a mile and certainly is capable. I’m just not sure I’d accept him at 5/2 as the favorite with a guy like Awesome Gem in here. 

Race 9

• #3 Tiago (7/5*)
• #7 Giant Gizmo (10/1)
• #1 Monterrey Jazz (5/1)

The 9th race is the $300k Grade 2 Strub going 1 1/8 miles over the main track.  Boy this sure looks like the field for the San Fernando all over again. Tiago got compromised by the scratch of Monterrey Jazz in that one and ended up losing to longshot Air Commander at nearly 50/1.  I think that was a fluke personally, but we’ll see.  Tiago may have needed that race and he should get a better pace set up today.  He’s one of my favorite 4 year olds and I’ll pretty much play him whenever he runs unless he starts turning in clunkers.  I think we’ll see the real Tiago today.   #7 Giant Gizmo looked like a horse moving forward to me.  Sure these are tougher competitors but I’m as much of a fan of a forward move into Grade 2′s and Grade 3′s as I am of a class drop in the claiming and maiden levels.  I like confidence.  I enjoy boldness.  He looks like he’s got the talent on paper and could get a nice stalking trip here today.   Watch out.   #9 Monterrey Jazz, despite drawing an outside post, looked like the best of the speed horses to me. 

Race 10

• #4 On Overdrive (7/2)
• #6 Warren’s Secret (9/2)
• #9 Tall Tonic (8/1)

The 10th race of the card is a $25k N2L Claimer for four year olds and upward going 7 furlongs over the main track.   I didn’t spend a lot of time on this race due to the more prominent races early on.  #4 On Overdrive drops from the $40k level and reverts back to Joe Talamo.  #6 Warren’s Secret ran behind a horse I like a lot, Asteri, at the $10k level last time out.   #9 Tall Tonic was simply unavoidable in this race when you factor in the Gomez/Hollendorfer tandem that is hitting at absurd 50% clip over the last year, and 43% over the past 2 years despite a small sample size. 

Race 11

• #2 Shem Tov (7/2)
• #3 No Jeopardy (5/1)
• #7 It’snotjustagame (15/1)

We end the day with a $50k Maiden Special Weight for 3 year olds going 1 1/8 miles over the turf course.  #2 Shem Tov has been running well recently at this level and just missed by a neck last time out.  Tyler Baze sticks around and he gets another furlong for today’s race.  #3 No Jeopardy has really run into a slew of talented horses for only having made 3 career starts. Cost Guard, Gayego, Hood’s Up, and Afleet Ruler all flatter the past performances.  He’ll need to move forward today to prevail but it’s certainly possible.  #7 Itsnotjustagame has the looks of an end of day thief to me.  I like that he’s been involved in all three efforts and has posted respectable Beyers.  He’ll have to earn it today as he’s up against more speed than he’s ever seen, but he’s also eligible to move forward a bit in his second start of the year. 

Best of luck to all and be sure to check for late scratches and/or changes.   Happy Saturday everyone!