THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

Indian Blessing: 2007 Two Year Old Filly Eclipse Award Winner - photo by Adam Coglianese / NYRA photo 

Saturday marks the first “big day” in the winter racing action on the Kentucky Derby trail.  Several other “prep races” have already been run, but the action at Fair Grounds this Saturday promises to feature some of the biggest names in the sport.  Highly regarded 3 year-old colt Pyro makes his 2008 debut in the Grade 3 Risen Star Stakes for trainer Steve Asmussen, after working hard alongside 2007 Horse of the Year winner Curlin.  The top 3 year old filly in the nation, Indian Blessing, has entered into the Grade 3 Silverbulletday, and a slew of other impressive horses fill out the rest of the card, including Better Talk Now, Euroears, Grasshopper, Daytona, and up and coming 3 year old Z Fortune.

Their are six stakes races on the card (races 4-9) that comprise the pick 6 sequence for the day.  I’m going to take a stab at the pick 6 and see if I can’t get lucky.   For those that are playing along, I’ve included my analysis of each of the races in the sequence. 

Race 4: 42nd Running of the Pan Zareta ($100k)

• #5 Graeme Six (3/1)
• #4 Tres Dream (2/1*)
• #8 Atlanta Highway (6/1)

The Pan Zareta is a 6 furlong sprint for fillies and mares 4 years old and up over the main track.  #5 Graeme Six should have held on for a win last time against another of today’s rivals, Sutra.  She was beaten by a nose in the photo finish to end the race.  I like that Jordan Leparoux has climbed aboard today and that trainer Thomas Amoss is a cool 24% in 2nd starts after a layoff.  I can see Graeme Six getting a nice stalking trip in this one and looking to pounce late.  #4 Tres Dream is the morning line favorite at 2/1.  She took the Esplanade last time out at Fair Grounds. She’s been resting late and it looks like trainer Steve Asmussen has her in sharp form.   She should be rolling late.  #8 Atlanta Highway is 3 for 4 at today’s 6 furlong distance.  Note that she was favored last time out against today’s favorite, Tres Dream. She ran big off a layoff on 12/1 and note how the Beyer speed progression has seemingly gone up, down, up, down in the last 4 races.   If that form holds true today she’s due to run a good one.   There are a couple of others I like in this field, including Sutra and Casino Transaction.  This is a fairly tough race to handicap for an opening to the pick 6.  My advice is to go somewhat deep here and look to play some of the favorites in the later races, but that all depends on how deep you can afford to go.

Race 5:  21st running of the Colonel Power ($100k)

• #11 Euroears (4/1*)
• #12 Fort Prado (6/1)
• #9 Stormin Baghdad (9/2)

The Colonel Power is a 5  1/2 furlong sprint for four year olds and upward over the turf course.   This is another tough race in the pick 6 sequence.   The better horses appear to be positioned outside, but those post positions have not faired so well in similar action at Fair Grounds.  #11 Euroears is the obvious top choice here.  He’s got speed and has prevailed even after having to duel in the past, which he’ll likely need to do again today to prevail.  He’s sporting a perfect 4 for 4 record although the competition has seemingly been getting closer to him with each race.  #12 Fort Prado has two extremely sharp workouts recently that caught my attention.  He’s a bit long in the years know at 7, but it’s hard to resist the 15 wins on turf and the $900k in lifetime bankroll.   Obviously the post position and the lack of upside are considerations for betters.   Robbie Albarado jumps on board though and she should be fresh, if not wound a bit tight from those workouts.  #9 Stormin Baghdad is a Steve Asmussen trained colt that dueled and lost to Euroears last out.  Still, he’s got to rate a decent  chance if someone is going to turn the tables on the favorite today.   The surface switch is a bit of a concern here, and the workouts aren’t exactly inspiring, but maybe that’s just who he is.    He ought to at least be involved and at 5 1/2 furlongs that should give him as good a chance as any. 

Race 6:  23rd running of the Grade 3 Mineshaft ($150k)

• #2 Grasshopper (5/2)
• #6 Magna Graduate (2/1*)
• #1 Encaustic (12/1)

The Mineshaft is a 1 1/16 mile route for four year olds and up over the main track, and routinely draws some of the better older horses in the nation.   #2 Grasshopper is the horse I really like here.  I have fond memories of watching Grasshopper run a big race against 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense in the Travers last year.  I like him to get the lead today and I think it will take  a huge race to get past him.  Grasshopper was not going to enter here if Curlin had chosen this race for his 2008 debut, but with the 2007 Eclipse Award winner headed to Dubai, Grasshopper’s connections like their chances against the rest.  Why not?  He almost knocked off Street Sense, who is one of the few to have defeated Curlin.   #6 Magna Graduate enters as the morning line favorite at 2/1.  He’s bagged over $2 million in earnings for trainer Todd Pletcher and drops in from the G2 Clark Handicap after encountering some trouble in that race.  He’s been working bullets and should be charging late.   My vision is that it will be him coming on to try and catch Grasshopper at the end.   #1 Encaustic is one I’ll definitely use on the bottom of my trifectas at least.  He looks outmatched, but note that Asmussen shipped him here from the Maryland circuit and seems to always wind up in or near the money.   If somehow Grasshopper were to get cooked in a speed duel, and Magna Graduate were not to fire, why not this one?

Race 7:  21st running of the Grade 3 Fair Grounds Handicap ($150k)

• #8 Daytona (7/2)
• #5 Better Talk Now (3/1*)
• #10 Inca King (9/2)

The Fair Grounds Handicap is a 1 1/8 mile route for four year olds and up over the turf track.  I like #8 Daytona in here at 7/2.  I play this horse all the time out on the California circuit and he always seems to run a big race.  He’s won 3 in a row on the turf and is dropping in from the G2 level.   He should be on the lead early and will try and wire the field if no one can get up and challenge.  #5 Better Talk Now is a heck of a horse.  The Grade 1 winner from the always dangerous Graham Motion barn has amassed $4 million in lifetime earnings.  Also note that he’s defeated English Channel, who went on to win the Breeder’s Cup Turf in 2007.    You can’t leave him off your tickets either.   #10 Inca King has been in some tough races lately, which does worry me a bit.   Still, you have to respect that he’s 3 for his last 3 and even prevailed after needing to “await room” in that last effort.   If the top choices don’t fire, I’d say this is your thief. 

Race 8:  27th running of the Grade 3 Silverbulletday ($200k)

• #7 Indian Blessing (4/5*)
• #5 Proud Spell  (7/2)
• #1 Jolie The Cat (5/1)

The Silverbulletday is 1 1/16 mile route for fillies 3 years old and up over the main track.  #7 Indian Blessing is an Eclipse Award winner and the current top 3 year old filly in the nation.   You’ve got to like that she’s already 1 for 1 in 2008.   I can’t see taking anyone else on top until she’s proven to be beatable.   #5 Proud Spell is the logical second choice considering she’s run 2nd to Indian Blessing in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Fillies last October at Monmouth Park (NJ).  Larry Jones trains Proud Spell and she’s been working well late.   #1 Jolie the Cat hasn’t faced anyone like Indian Blessing before, but don’t hold that against her.   The Asmussen trained filly should be on the gas out of the inside post and might get loose on the lead.  Sean Bridgmohan takes the reins was aboard for her maiden win, although I doubt she can rate off the pace today like she did then.

 Race 9:  35th running of the Grade 3 Risen Star Stakes ($300k)

• #11 Z Fortune (7/2)
• #8 Pyro (3/1*)
• #3 Visionaire (6/1)

The Risen Star is  1 1/16 mile route for 3 year olds over the main track, and is considered a major prep race for the Kentucky Derby.   The two Asmussen colts look tops to me.  Pyro has been training with Curlin and reportedly trainer Steve Asmussen is worried that he’s been working a bit too hard.   When he says that, he isn’t talking about Pyro not being able to win today, he’s talking about him potentially peaking too soon for the Derby.   I like Pyro, even though I’m going to side against him for top honors today.  His Beyer’s jump off the page and he’s famously been running in 2nd behind the top horse in the division at the moment, War Pass.   My main problem is  that he’s never beaten winners, yet I see him ranked 2nd in so many Kentucky Derby contender lists.   I need to see more for that.   I’ll side with #11 Z Fortune for top choice her as “Z” is a Grade 3 winner of the Lecomte in his last effort.  The pace may be soft but he should still be placed in a decent position to make a run turning for home, and he’s been able to do that in every race so far in his stellar 3 for 3 career.  I’ll use Pyro as my second choice for the reasons already stated.  #3 Visionaire is the other horse that really interests me her.  His Beyer progression screams talent and he has the looks of a Grade 3 winner at least, if not more.  He’ll be charging late and my benefit from a bit more pace, but I’ll go with the raw talent in a field like this.    As far as the others go, Blackberry Road and Signature Move look like they require consideration for the exotics.   The Darp should be on the lead but he hasn’t shown he can hang on.  With the talent entered in this one I don’t think you can back that kind of form today. 

Best of luck to everyone and as always be sure to check for late changes and scratches.   Hopefully we’ll know a bit more about the 3 year old filly and colt divisions when the racing action is over.