If you’ve been following along here at the Aspiring Horseplayer it will be old news to you that the major prep races for the 2008 Kentucky Derby are a focal point of attention at the moment. After the Hallandale Beach and the Sam F. Davis Stakes this past weekend, in which favorites Cowboy Cal and Z Humor failed to prevail, I’ve reshuffled the current rankings on the Road to 2008 Kentucky Derby page. Clicking on the preceding link will take you straight to that page for updates, or you can click here.
So what have we learned? Well, not a whole lot to be honest. It was very disappointing that Cowboy Cal in particular did not prevail in the Hallandale Beach Stakes, which appeared to be a very light contest for him as he remained on the turf for the moment. A result of that performance is that he’s dropped completely from my top 10 list of contenders.
War Pass and Pyro are still on tops of the class. War Pass by virtue of his 2 year old champion status, and Pyro for his jaw dropping run in the Risen Star, which if you haven’t already seen yet was the most impressive move by a 3 year old yet this year.
Right behind them I still have Majestic Warrior and Court Vision. In my mind they’ve got the pedigree and the talent and are proven winners, although I’m starting to get anxious waiting for the 2008 debuts. Other horses are starting to nip at their heels in the rankings.
After those two there is a slew of winners, many of them recent winners that I feel deserves consideration, including El Gato Mal, Colonel John, and newcomers Crown of Thorns and Georgie Boy. This may seem a bit west coast heavy but these colts have all shown a fair amount of promise. The good news is that we ought to get some separating in this portion of the field very soon as they should all face each other over the coming month.
Anak Nakal and Tale of Ekati are next on my list because while they have tremendous upside and all the makings of Derby competitors on paper, I haven’t really seen anything on the track that yet warrants their rankings. We should find out more about these guys in the next 30 days as well.
Into Mischief barely hangs on warranting a #11 ranking for me. He’s another of the west-coasters that should get a chance at redemption but is starting to slip behind his rivals. He’ll need to turn the tables quickly if he’s to remain on the Derby trail.
I’m curious to know if any of you out there are keeping your own Derby watch lists, and if so what your thoughts are? As I’ve mentioned above, I think it’s fair to say there’s a bit of a west coast bias on my list. I think that criticism is fair. Most of that is that I simply have better access to those horses through TVG and other services. I’m just that much more familiar with them.
I’d love to hear from some of our friends on the east coast about which colts they think have a legitimate shot to perform well in the Derby or simply deserve mentioning at this point in the season.
I’ll be travelling for work this week and not around to make regular updates, but will be looking forward to a return to action on Friday when I get home. Until then, take care and happy horse watching!
1. War Pass 2. Pyro 3. El Gato Malo
The Derby usually isn’t the best race for a speed horse as he’ll usually have to set a very fast pace to maintain a lead. This is particularly bad when going a mile and a quarter for the first time. On the other hand those that come from off the pace will likely encounter traffic problems (unless you’re Street Sense.) War Pass looks like a brilliant horse. Nick Zito may want to take a chance in his first prep race to see if he can rate behind horses. Then again, he may want to just keep winning.
Pyro has been beaten by War Pass so we’ve seen what he’s got when he’s forced to go all out. He does however have the running style to be able to possibly turn the tables on his foe in the Derby.
El Gato Malo… Undefeated. Winning easily. Perfect running style. What’s not to like?
I don’t get to see all the race with no horse racing channel here, but Pyro did well last time out with his big win. I still think so far War Pass is in a different league than the others. If War Pass is only front runner in Derby he will have a shot. Hard Spun just missed with a big run from Street Sense.
Roman Emperor I am watching because he is from Empire Maker who came in 2nd in Derby. Others.
I have not been following as closely as I should but Pyro’s run was real impressive and he is a beautiful horse!!
I’m not taking any of the west cost synthetic track horses real serious until they prove they can run on conventional dirt.
Pyro – Has the 2 year old foundation and his 3 year old debut was impressive, has a jump on most.
War Pass – Obviously a contender. Does he improve off his 2 year old form? That is always the question with these precocious types that have great 2 year old form.
Dennis of Cork – Undefeated. Graded stakes winner, can win from off pace. His rally in the maiden breaker look impressive. Was 4 wide every step of the way in his Alw win at the Fair Grounds.
Cowboy Cal – Can he transfer that turf form? He’s hurt I believe, so we may not find out this spring. I played this horse in the Future bets.
I also played these 3:
I also played Giant Moon at 51-1. An undefeated New York bred his seems to do just what he has too, maybe he’ll run fast enough but at 51-1 I’ll find out.
Blackberry Road at 47-1 was a play, late runner who seemed to have run at the Fair Grounds the other day but traffic was heavy infront of him.
Z Fortune at 37-1 was also a play. Runner with tactical speed and room to improve.
I think the big question with War Pass is – Will he be able to get away in :47 in the Derby like War Emblem? If so, he’ll romp. He’s proven he can whip Pyro with ease if he get’s a comfortable lead. I think War Pass will need to be seriously pressured early in a race if Pyro has a chance to run him down. Of course that is very possible in the Derby. In any case Pyro should avoid War Pass in preps unless he’s content with running second.
El Gato Malo is at a disadvantage prepping on that crazy fast synthetic surface. Dirt might seem like quicksand when he gets on it the first time. I don’t think you can take anything away from him though. I think he would distance Pyro in a race tomorrow if it were at Santa Anita. Too bad there’s not much they can do to work on the stamina that he’ll need in the Derby. Maybe they can train him in the desert climbing sand dunes?
Intersting picks guys. I think it’s a two horse show at the moment with War Pass and Pyro, but El Gato Malo looks really interesting. Sorry for being away for days on end but business travel sent me to Los Angeles yet again. I’m back……and dying to watch some good racing this weekend with the Fountain of Youth and War Pass running on Sunday.