THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

Well, I’m back from California and it looks like I’m just in time for some excellent racing action this weekend.  Obviously Sunday is going to be the BIG day, with the Fountain of Youth and the return of War Pass, but Saturday’s got some excitement stored away for sure.  I figured the Magna Pick 5 was probably the best chance for a “big score’  on Saturday and decided to take a modest stab at the ticket without breaking the bank.

The Magna Pick 5 covers racing action from Laurel Park in Maryland, Santa Anita in California, and Gulfstream Park in Florida.  Today’s sequence has several interesting races, including the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf.  The ticket I felt comfortable with was $72, and features two singles.   That’s a rather risky proposition, but what can I say?  After that ridiculous $3 Million payout someone out there hit in the pick 6 at Santa Anita last week, it just feels like time to roll the dice and play. 

• Leg A:  1, 7, 8
• Leg B:  7
• Leg C: 3, 4, 7
• Leg D: 2, 4, 6, 7
• Leg E: 10

(3×1x3×4x1 = 36x$2 = $72 total)

• Leg A: Laurel Park Race 10
  • #1 Coya (15/1)
  • #8 Cryptoquip (5/2*)
  • #7 Try to Remember (4/1)

We start the Pick 5 off with the 8th running of the Maryland Racing Media Handicap ($80k) for fillies and mares three-years-old and upward going 1 1/8 miles over the main track.  The selections for this race are tricky considering the prospective weather conditions in the Maryland area.  Luckily most of the area just missed a major winter storm on Friday (I flew through it on my way back from L.A.), and the track will likely be wet.  This means that close inspection will need to be paid as to how speed is doing on the rail.  The entire outcome of the first leg may well depend on this factor. #1 Coya is the rail-runner today and could very well be the pace setter.  At 15/1 I think she deserves serious consideration if the track is playing favorably.  In fact, if it appears she won’t face a bias, she’d be my top choice.  If, however, the rail is playing dead, she’s a total toss.  #8 Cryptoquip seems to be the best horse of the field.  My primary concern is the outside post position here. Still, when you toss in Mr. 30%, Jeremy Rose, it’s hard to leave her off the ticket.  I think she’s a vulnerable favorite in the opener, but you’ve still got to use her.   #7 Try to Remember looks like a contender as well.  She’ll get a more favorable pace situation today as well as some extra distance.  Napravnik’s not a bad consolation prize for losing Jeremy Rose to Cryptoquip.  If you’re playing the tri, don’t forget about Hanalei Bay and Take a Check. 

• Leg B: Santa Anita Race 4
  • #7 New Rule (3/1)

The second leg of the Pick 5 is a $10,000 Claimer for four-year-olds and up going 6 furlongs over the main track.  I decided to play a single here due to all of the apparent speed entered into this race.  #7 New Rule seems to be the logical benefactor of what figures to be a hot early pace and has shown the ability to close into a decent pace before.  Of course, if the Santa Anita track has been favoring speed and not allowing off the pace types to close into them, this single will suddenly become very concerning.  It’s going to be hard to get an accurate read on the track in the first 3 races, so I just assumed everything would play fair and decided he was the one that would get it done.  You’ve got to take a stand somewhere, right?  I’d use Swing Your Partner and Currency Trader underneath in the single race exotics.

• Leg C: Gulfstream Park Race 9:
  • #4 Einstein (6/1)
  • #3 Zann (6/1)
  • #7 Shamdinan (4/1*)

The third leg og the Pick 5 is the 23rd running of the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf ($350k) for four-year-olds and upward going 1 3/8 miles over the turf.  #4 Einstein is my favorite horse of the field as I’ve been following him since his unfortunate trip in the Dixie on Preakness Day.  He looks to attempt to get a favorable stalking trip in today’s event and attempt to edge his way to the lead perhaps mid way to 3/4 of the way into the race.  He’s going to have to hold off a charge from #3 Zann, who figures to be rolling well late.  The favorite is #7 Shamdinan, and while it appears to be favorable to pick against the relatively weak 4/1 morning line odds, it’s a mistake to totally discount him.

• Leg D: Santa Anita Race 5
  • #4 Liver (5/1)
  • #2 Only Him (7/2)
  • #7 Wild Diplomat (5/2*)
  • #6 Cherokee Heaven  (10/1)

The fourth leg of the Pick 5 sequence is perhaps the hardest to separate. I counted 4 horses I could make a legitimate case for winning this event, so you know what that means?  Invariably, one of the ones I didn’t pick will defeat them all.  It’s the law of averages I suppose, only seemingly in reverse as I should expect to win by going so deep.  History unfortunately tells me that when I’m so indecisive, I hardly have a solid fix on the competition.  #4 Liver looks like the winning play to me.  Let’s count the angles shall we?  Blinkers, Gomez, Hollendorfer, bullet workouts…..get the picture?  #7 Wild Diplomat is the favorite and certainly a serious threat to win the race.  #2 Only Him was running well late last time out.  My longshot play of the race is #6 Cherokee Heaven who at 10/1 could be a steal if he improves like he seems capable of. 

• Leg E: Gulfstream Park Race 10
  • #10 Anachronism (5/2*)

We end the day with the tenth and final from Gulfstream Park, a Maiden Special Weight ($40k) for 3 year old fillies going 7 furlongs over the main track.   I thought it looked safe to single here and keep the ticket cost within reason today by playing the favorite, #10 Anachronism.  She lost in a photo finish last time out on January 31st after a slow start.  We should be able to expect improvement today, and it doesn’t look like it would even take an improvement at all to clear this field.  This feels like the safest bet on the card, although I’d prefer to be deeper if we are still alive at this point.

Best of luck to all and as always be sure to check for scratches, changes, and perhaps even more importantly than normal today, for track bias at Laurel Park (specifically how the rail is playing).  Here’s wishing all of you luck in your Saturday wagers.  Be sure to save some cash for Sunday though, as that’s going to be the main event of the weekend.