Curlin prevailed today easily in his first real trip around the Nad Al Sheba racecourse in Dubai in the $175,000 Jaguar Trophy Handicap. The colt broke well and was involved a bit more than usual early on. He was only racing against 5 competitors and this wasn’t considered a very stiff test for the reigning 2007 Horse of the Year Eclipse Award winner.
I think everyone knows by now how strongly I feel for the colt, so it’s worth it to level set a bit here and say that the race didn’t really show us much. It was impressive to see Curlin win without really being asked for anything, but the competition should be much fiercer when he faces off against the world’s finest next month in Dubai World Cup. Still, I think it’s worth tooting his horn a bit when you consider that he’s been off since the end of October and has travelled thousands of miles to race in Dubai. In other words, maybe he just makes it look easier than it really is. It certainly didn’t seem that he was pressed at all in today’s trip.
What I saw was a fit horse that still has those giant trademark strides. There’s just something about how this horse runs that I find mesmerizing, even when he’s doing so effortlessly. It truly is a sight to behold watching him “pick ‘em up and put ‘em down” as he travels the track. It’s this quality that I think first made him so attractive to me and got me whispering things that horseplayers usually keep fairly tight lipped, such as “he’s the best I’ve seen.” Such statements won’t win you many friends when you’re talking with folks that are just as passionate about great horses from previous eras, and I usually end up having to explain that I simply wasn’t around to see them.
Up next for Curlin is the Dubai World Cup for $6 million on March 29.
I rather fancy ending my Curlin posts these days with a fitting quote. If nothing else, he’s 1 for 1 now when I do so, and who am I to break from such obviously successfully tradition? 
For today’s post, what came to mind was a quote from the battle of Sterling in Braveheart, even though the film adaptation lacked the requisite bridge that made the actual battle so dramatic. My message to Curlin and his crew regarding the upcoming Dubai World Cup is simply:
“Send the horse……full attack!”
Good to hear Curlin is doing well!
Question: On what ratio does the success of a horse depend on the talent of the horse compared with the talent of the Jockey?
Man, does he have quite a last kick. Is he known for this? The videos I’ve seen on your site always show him chilling comfortably, and then Wham!
I’ve had to watch the video a couple of times to try and catch what you guys are talking about… the fact the Curlin seems to break away from the pack with ease towards the final length of the race is quite obvious, yet the strides only seemed a fraction different from the other horses, and I only think I noticed this because it was mentioned in the original post.
What I did notice was that the jockey seemed to be doing less then any of the other jockeys on the other horses, one guy was whipping away like mad towards the end of the race while Curlin, without any urging that is blatently obvious, just rolled forward and beyond.
If I were a trainer I would not want to put one of my horses up against him after watching how effortlessly he won this race.
@Lupideloop: The question about how much the jockey factors into handicapping is something that probably every horseplayer has a different answer for. I was first taught to assume the jockey is about 10-20%, while the horse is 80-90%, but I’m not much for percentages. Instead, I tend to try and go with or against jockeys when they are on hot/cold streaks. They get hot like batters in baseball sometimes. My general rule of thumb is to not over value the jockey. I’ve got a semi-humorous post about my inability to play the jockey angle correctly that I’ll post in my next reply once I catch up with all the comments here.
@Tamera – Yes indeed, he’s an off-the pace type that generally prefers to save himself for a late run. That’s one of the reasons that he didn’t win in the Belmont even though he probably should’ve. The other horses simply refused to give him a target to run at. It’s also the reason he lost in the KY Derby, as he broke from the 2 hole and had 18 horses to his outside. He got crunched in tight traffic and had to weave around folks in the stretch. Off-the-pace types tend to be the most exciting from a fan perspective, but they do need a bit of help pace wise. Curlin’s sort of a freak though. Even without a pace in the Belmont he was neck and neck in a dead sprint with Rags to Riches in the final furlong or two. You can also see in this replay that he’s able to win being fairly close to the pace (he’s in 2nd during most of the race here) as opposed to how he would typically run fairly far back for a good portion of the race in the Preakness and Classic, and then move into position in 3rd or 4th before unleashing his late run.
@Lupideloop again
See- now you’re doing basic handicapping. You’re picking things out with your eyes in a race replay. That’s one of the more important things to be able to do. You’re absolutely right, Robbie Albarado (Curlin’s jockey) had a very tight hold on him well into the stretch, so he basically only ran at about 75% today. That’s scary for his competition, although I have to admit that I know nothing about who he raced against, and that a Grade 1 Stakes champion ought to defeat Allowance types every time. To me the impressive thing was that it was his first race in 4 months, he’s thousands of miles from home, and he didn’t even need to break a sweat. Sheer perfection – I couldn’t have asked for the prep race to have gone any better.
@Amy (my wife): I’m not so sure. When you’re on the top you’ve got an X on your back and everyone is gunning for you. If you can get him caught in traffic or catch him a bit rusty/tired like they did in the Haskell, or if you can take a pace target away from him to run at it, it’s certainly possible to beat him. It’s when he gets to run “his race” that the other’s chances diminish greatly.
Here’s the article where I bash myself for my inability to avoid being burned by certain jockeys and trainers:
http://theaspiringhorseplayer.wordpress.com/2007/12/28/jockey-burn-these-wounds-wont-heal/
I’ll keep watching the incoming videos to get a feel of what you are talking about regarding his style. I did watch this one over again, so I understand what you mean.
You know what’s going to be funny, Tamera? You’re going to be somewhere on the first Saturday in May, and if by chance the Kentucky Derby comes on, you’re going to be able to talk about things like “I wonder if War Pass can hold his speed at this distance” and “You know, if the Pyro that showed up in the Risen Star shows up here today, we might have ourselves a heckuva race.”
Just watch….if you keep visiting with this regularity, it will happen. My wife was laughing about that last night while we shared a special memory that I had forgotten. We got married on June 8, 2002. Belmont Stakes day. We drove to the wedding together (unconventional, but that’s just us) with our best man in the car. We waited outside in the car before going in while we listened to the race on the radio.
Sarava won that day to deny War Emblem a triple crown, and was sent off at odds of 70-1. The biggest long-shot to ever win that race. He paid $142.60 for a $2 bet. Can you believe that?
Can I believe it? It just proves that the payoff together with the excitement of the atmosphere, is positively addicting. My ex-father-in-law brought me and my kids (when they were little) with him to the tracks a couple of times. The boys loved to watch the horses. I DO know how exciting the atmosphere is, and the man was quite brilliant at figuring it all out. So, when I watch the videos the feeling of it kind of comes back.
Oh yes. On that Saturday, I am going to head out to the local bar, and impress all of the dudes with my knowledge…lol. Naw. At least my husband. I love knowing more than him. You know. Shocking him a little.hehe.
Most of the good hroses are retired from 2007. I expect Curlin to face very little challenges. Hard Spun and Street Sense are retired. Premium Tap is probably past his prime. Invasor is retired from that race.
@Tamera: I’ll be so proud of rekindling your interest in horse racing if you do that. You’ll have to share with us if/when it does happen, of course.
@Mike: I agree. Lately I realize that I’ve been trying to temper my adoration fo Curlin and my feelings that his 2008 campaign is going to be legendary by not fawning over him as much as I’d really like to. I’m going to say the heck with that and just come straight out as his biggest fan. He’s going to win the Dubai World Cup and to be honest, unless something unexpected happens, I have a tough time imagining him losing at all in 2008. I just don’t want to jinx him. You know how superstitious we horseplayers can get.
This year could be an amazing one in horse racing. Imagine an undefeated War Pass winning the triple crown and meeting up with Curlin, undefeated as a 4 year old in a Breeder’s Cup Classic showdown that captivates the nation. If it were to happen, War Pass would be the horse everybody would be excited about since he won the Triple Crown. We would be among the few pulling for Curlin to run him down.
Curlin may run closer to the early pace in many of his races this year. Most of the dominant older horses like Cigar and Skip Away ran with tactical speed, and could take the lead or rally from behind depending on how much speed was in a race. I think Robby is really in tune to how Curlin wants to run and his main goal is to just make sure he’s relaxed in the early going, wherever that may put him.
The final time of this year’s Breeders Cup Classic at Santa Anita may be an incredibly fast 1:57. The fast track may foil Curlin. Robby might have to press him from the start to stay within very close striking distance as I doubt the leaders will be tiring on that synthetic surface. What do you think?
I’m a little down on this year’s 3 year old crop to be honest. I think we got spoiled last year witha slew of amazing competitors and I’m a tad disappointed so far in what I’ve seen. I just think Street Sense, Curlin, and Hard Spun would eat these guys for breakfast.
I’m not so worried about the fast track either. Curlin’s trained on the synthetic surface before and seems to be able to bring his A-game to any track. I agree that he may have to be closer to the front though. It all depends on how the track is playing when we get there. What I am curious about is that since Steve Asmussen seems to prefer to give Curlin at least 1 prep around the track of his major races, does that mean we’ll see Curlin out west before the Breeder’s Cup? We’ll have to wait and see I guess.