Earlier in the week we took a first look at the prestigious Louisiana Derby, a Grade 2 Kentucky Derby prep race being run at Fair Grounds this Saturday. The race features several colts with major aspirations for running in the 2008 Kentucky Derby this May, including Pyro, Tale of Ekati, and Majestic Warrior.
Looking over the race in the DRF, it seems clear that #4 J Be K will be on the gas and setting the pace around the track. Trying to figure out how the 1st group of horses coming just off the pace willl line up gets a little bit trickier to predict. I could see #6 Tale of Ekati and #9 Majestic Warrior getting decent trips, despite the fact that Majestic Warrior breaks from the outside post. Tale of the Ekati stands a chance at getting a better trip of the two as he could be rating well just off the pace. If so I think he’s a threat to run a big one. Majestic Warrior will probably be just in front of Pyro early on towards the back of the pack.
Pyro we of course saw last time in the Risen Star when he went from last to first in the stretch to run down the likes of Z Fortune and Visionaire. It may be a bit tough for Pyro to get at J Be K today though if no one else goes up and gets him. Stevil, Tale of Ekati, and My Pal Charlie would be the logical possibilities to try and burn him up, but there’s a good chance he’ll be alone the lead. That means you’ve got to work J Be K into the equation. Still, Pyro is in top notch condition and is arguably the top 3 year old in the country depending on who you talk to. His late move in the Risen Star was simply jaw-dropping. It’s even more impressive when you consider that the Risen Star wasn’t exactly run blazingly fast. That makes that late closing performance all the more impressive to me, and convinces me that Pyro is the worthy favorite and horse to beat here today.
I’d probably cover J Be K in the multi-race tickets just to be safe, but as far as exotics on the the Louisiana Derby itself are concerned, I’d play Pyro to win. For place I’ll toss in J Be K and Tale of Ekati. I’ll add in Majestic Warrior and Blackberry Road for show honors. It’s a realtively cheap $6 trifecta that won’t pay a whole heckuva lot if I hit, but that’s how I see it.
I’m not expecting the morning line of 12/1 to hold for J Be K as he’s the obvious lone speed here. Majestic Warrior and Tale of Ekati could benefit from a shift in the odds on J Be K, but it’s hard to back them for the win considering the long layoffs. They have been working well, but I’ll watch this one rather than wager a win bet on them and hope to see what kind of horses we’ve got. At one point in time (early January) I was predicting Majestic Warrior would be my choice for the Kentucky Derby. I still think he could develop in time to compete, but I think he’s chosen a tough one to make his 2008 debut against the new and improved Pyro.
The post positions, odds, and jockeys are included below:
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Stevil (E. Castro) 15/1
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My Pal Charlie (J. Leparoux) 20/1
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Pyro (S.Bridgmohan) 7/5*
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J Be K (K. Desormeaux) 12/1
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Unbridled Vicar (C. Lanerie) 20/1
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Tale of Ekati (E. Prado) 7/2
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Blackberry Road (R. Albarado Jr.) 10/1
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Yankee Bravo (A. Solis) 4/1
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Majestic Warrior (G. Gomez) 9/2
I like J Be K too. Pyro may have found another War Pass to contend with. 12-1 would be sweet. I’ll settle for 3-1.
The stretch run should be very entertaining.
Majestic Warrior will probably be just in front of Pyro early on towards the back of the pack. That would be a dream. Let the race set the pace, keep Warrior in front but not too far away; if Pyro gets the opening at the right time, he’ll take the race. He has that burst of speed when it counts and others are tired.
Well, they are both late closers and Pyro has a tendency to like the absolute back of the pack.
Pyro won the race. He looks mighty impressive. That’s back to back wins now for the “new and improved” Pyro. He’s a force to be reckoned with now.
Betting against Indian Blessing finally paid off. She had 0 excuses today.
I kept telling friends that she was going to lose. The competition had been getting closer and closer and those 4 horse fields are always dangerous to favorites.
How about Circular Quay today? I’m adding posts right now and desperately seeking youtube video.
Video of the Derby is out, here it is
http://www.ntra.com/content.aspx?type=news&id=31286
My Pal Charlie, where did THAT come from. It’s like he’s been tucked away somewhere, just waiting for the right time to bring him out and say HERE I AM. Somebody made some cash today on that guy!
Kentucky Derby is going to put us on the edge of our seats this year (again). I can’t wait, I want it now! Pyro ran his race, they let him run it the way he likes to run; they keep that up, he’ll be top horse soon. What is he, second now?
I can’t get enough of watching the 2008 Risen Star Stakes. Pyro, on fire!
I love this horse!
I’m going to update my pre-Derby rankings tomorrow and yes, Pyro is my new #1. I know War Pass has beaten him, but this is a different Pyro now. Of course, if War Pass looks impressive next weekend in the Tampa Bay Derby he may vault back into the top spot the next week.
We’ll get one more prep for Pyro before the Derby. It’s coming, buddy - just let that excitement build and build!
Where is a link with War Pass and Pyro running in the same race, do you have any of these videos posted? I’d like to watch them.
Here’s the replay from the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile last October (the championship race for 2 year olds).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PIhE8zI7Ea0
….and here’s the first time War Pass beat him in the Champagne. Majestic Warrior came out hurt of this race and wasn’t seen again until today.
What you’ll see in these replays is War Pass loose on the lead. Pyro puts in nice late runs to cut into his leads. Couple that with his obvious improvement and you can see why he’s got the horse racing world buzzing about him now.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t0FWXWLbZhU
Thanks, I’m going to go watch now!
I just found a site with a sic amount of racing videos, including historic ones.
http://www.chef-de-race.com/video/race_replays.htm
Wow, Diss - you’re getting into some hardcore handicapping with stuff like dosage index and chefs de race. That’s pretty advanced stuff.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dosage_Index
Thanks kstaff, I just watched them and a few others, very cool. It looks like Pyro is running with a different bit now than he was last year. Where can we find those kind of specifics?
I don’t know what either of those actually mean, but if that’s what I’m doing, go me! I’ve been researching their breeding history’s and seeing who has what chromosomes this past hour… or three
ahh… great link. that dosage thing. yes, maybe that’s it, what i’m doing. what’s handicapping? more credit needs to be given to the mares; many seem to look at the sires and they should of course, but always remember mom. it takes two
Handicapping? Each player seems to have their own style. Basically it’s going over the race in the Daily Racing Form or the track program and determining what chance you give each horse. You look at the horses pedigree, it’s past performances, it’s connections (jockey, trainer, etc) and then try to envision how the race will be run using concepts such as pace handicapping. Then you compare your thoughts with the morning line odds and make your predictions. It’s a labor of love, but eventually you train your eyes to know what to look for.
Regarding moms -oh yes, I pay attention to dams. A lot of folks also pay attention to who the dam’s sire was. In other words, the maternal grand father.
Edit: Oh, about the bit - you’ve got me stumped there. I’d need to either google search to see if it’s been mentioned in previous articles or run it by Ron for definitive answer. They change bits quite a bit though so I think it’s safe to say they swapped it out. And you’re right, something like an uncomfortable bit can make a difference in how a horse runs.