THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

As promised, after an exciting weekend of racing that saw victories by Visionaire in the Gotham Stakes, Pyro in the Louisiana Derby, and Autism Awareness in the El Camino Real Derby, a near total shakeup of my top 10 contenders has occurred.  I’ve no doubt this list will cause some controversy amongst readers, so I invite you to share your own thoughts both here and on my main Road to the 2008 Kentucky Derby page, which currently displays the same information you see below along with a few other links to useful resources.

Without further adieu, I present my updated 2008 Kentucky Derby rankings as they stand today, Sunday the 9th of March:

1. Pyro

Pyro

• Owner:  Winchell Thoroughbreds, L.L.C
• Trainer:  Steve Asmussen
• Sire:  Pulpit
• Dam:  Wild Vision
• Notes:   Let the controversy begin!  Pyro moves up to the top spot on my Derby watch list after an impressive win in the Louisiana Derby on 3/8/08 over a field that included Tale of Ekati, Majestic Warrior, and Blackberry Road among others.  The obvious knocks to ranking him #1 are that he has run 2nd behind War Pass in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile and the Champagne Stakes.  Following those defeats he trained side by side at Fair Grounds with Curlin, the 2007 Horse of the Year.  Since that move we’ve seen what in my eyes is a new and improved colt that is able to finish the job in the stretch and gun down the horses in front of him.  It’s true he hasn’t been beating the toughest fields, but considering he can count Visionaire, Tale of Ekati, and Majestic Warrior among his recently beaten, it seems to me he’s doing all he can.  Nobody else seems to be doing that much better, apart from his main rival, War Pass.  The main reason I move Pyro above War Pass is that I’ve now seen Pyro win twice around two distances against rivals while the speedy War Pass still has to prove he can handle the two turn trip.  The Risen Star remains the most visually impressive performance in a Derby prep race this year in my opinion.  For the record, I do expect War Pass will be able to handle the two-turns, so keep that in mind before crucifying me for this selection.  I just think War Pass may run into a new and improved Pyro when the two lock up again this spring.   Up next for Pyro will be the Blue Grass at Keeneland on April 12.

Pyro wins the Grade 3 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds with a huge surge late in the stretch.

Pyro pulls away in the Louisiana Derby on 3/8/08.

2. War Pass

War Pass

• Owner: Lanes End & Robert LaPenta
• Trainer:  Nick Zito
• Sire:  Cherokee Run
• Dam:  Vue
• Notes:  Sports a perfect 5 for 5 career mark, including being named the 2007 Eclipse Award winner for top 2 year old colt in the nation.  He won the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile in convincing fashion and is pointing towards the Tampa Bay Derby in March, and the Wood Memorial in April.  The current top horse in the division on nearly everyone else’s list likes to get out in front fast out of the gate and wire the field.   He’s got speed, but will distance (two turns) or potential pace pressure catch up to him eventually? C. Velasquez currently rides War Pass.  He remains atop the field of contenders after prevailing effortlessly in an Allowance race at Gulfstream Park on Sunday 2/24/08.  The Tampa Bay Derby on 3/15 should be his first chance to prove that the he can handle two-turns as well as one.  If War Pass can prevail in the Tampa Bay Derby, he may well find himself back atop the Derby rankings next week.  I expect he will handle the distance fine, and we should remember that last year’s Derby winner, Street Sense, used the Tampa Bay Derby as an important prep for his triple crown campaign.

War Pass runs away in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile

3.  Colonel John

Colonel John

• Owner:  WinStar Farms
• Trainer:Eoin Harty
• Sire:  Tiznow
• Dam: Sweet Damsel
• Notes:Finished 2nd behind Into Mischief in the Cashcall Futurity, but showed a lot of heart after encountering plenty of traffic trouble in the trip. Prior to that he exploded from 4th to 1st in one move in the Real Quiet.  He came back to prevail in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita on March 1st against the highly regarded El Gato Malo.  The two colts now appear evenly matched atop the rankings of California 3 year olds.  Corey Nakatani currently rides Colonel John.  We’ll next see Colonel John renew his rivalry with El Gato Malo in the Santa Anita Derby in early April.  

Colonel John holds off El Gato Malo to win the Grade 3 Sham Stakes 

4.  El Gato Malo

El Gato Malo

• Owner:  West PointThoroughbreds
• Trainer:  Craig Dollase
• Sir:  Ell Corredor
• Dam:  One Bad Cat
• Notes:  The bad cat  shattered the 1 mile track record at Santa Anita with a 1:33.37 romp in the Grade 3 San Rafael Stakes on January 12th.   He’s got a nice stalking style and kicks it into gear turning for home.  If he handles the extra distance as well as he appears he should (he won the San Rafael running away by over 6 lengths), he could be a force on the Derby trail.  One of the more interesting colts to watch this season.  ”D-Flo”, David Flores currently rides El Gato Malo.  He faced off against Colonel John in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita on March 1st and finished 2nd in a thrilling stretch duel.  The bad cat was trapped on the rail for a moment before swinging wide and putting his run.  In the end that may have cost him as Colonel John was able to get his neck down at the wire prevail.  I’m not going to take anything away from El Gato Malo as he looked very game to me.   We’ll see this rivalry ensue again in the Santa Anita Derby in early April.

El Gato Malo swings wide after being stuck on the rail and almost catches Colonel John in the Sham Stakes.

5. Visionaire 

Visionaire comes from out of the clouds to nip Texas Wildcatter at the line in the G2 Gotham on 3/8/08 

• Owner: Team Valor International and Vision Racing
• Trainer: Michael Matz
• Sire: Grand Slam
• Dam: Scarlet Tango
• Notes: Ran a game third behind Pyro in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds in February.  Returned to prevail in the Grade 2 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on 3/8/08 when he nipped Texas Wildcatter at the wire.  The colt came from out of nowhere (literally, considering the dense cloud cover) to prevail in the Gotham.  Michael Matz had chosen the Gotham in favor of the Louisiana Derby as he felt it was an easier assignment for the developing colt.  Jose Lezcano currently rides Visionaire, who will next point to either the Wood Memorial on 4/5/08 at Aqueduct, or the Blue Grass Stakes on 4/12 at Keeneland. 

6. Denis of Cork

Denis of Cork 

• Owner:  Mr. and Mrs. William Warren
• Trainer: David Caroll
• Sire: Harlans Holiday
• Dam: Unbridled Girl
• Notes: Had “bucked shins” as a 2 year old which delayed his eventual debut.  Trained with fellow Derby hopeful Blackberry Road prior to making his belated debut.  Since then has run off a 3 for 3 record, including a win around two turns in the Southwest Stakes.   A colt that seems to have a tremendous amount of upside if he continues to develop in time for the Derby. He’s pointing to the Rebel Stakes on 3/15 at Oaklawn Park to continue his 3 year old campaign.  It’s tough to figure out the proper place to rank a colt like this since he hasn’t exactly faced the cream of the crop yet, but my gut says this is about right.  We’ll know more about him after the Rebel for sure.

  Denis of Cork comes from 15 lengths back at one point to win the Southwest Stakes by 3 lengths

 7. Elysium Fields

• Owner:  Robert S. Evans
• Trainer:  Barclay Tag
• Sire:  El Prado
• Dam:  Dreams
• Notes:  Colt exploded onto the scene with an impressive 2nd place finish behind Cool Coal Man in the Fountain of Youth on February 24 at Gulfstream Park.  So why is Elysium Fields ranked and Cool Coal Man not on my list?  Well there are several for factors.  Let’s start with the fact that in Greek mythology, Elysium Fields was the final resting place for heroic souls.  Elysium is also mentioned in my favorite Shakespeare play, Henry V, just as Henry is imploring his “god of battles” to “steel his soldiers hearts” before the battle of Agincourt.   Oh, wait, you actually want to know about the horse?  Know this, he looked much the best to me in the Fountain of Youth as he had a greener and somewhat more difficult trip than Cool Coal Man.  He appeared to be finished about midway through the stretch and than fought back to nearly catch Cool Coal Man.   Tagg is pointing him towards the Florida Derby on 3/29 in which he’ll face off against a nicely developing colt named Big Brown.

Elysium Fields puts in a courageous late bid that comes up a neck short in the Fountain of Youth. 

8. Georgie Boy

Georgie Boy

• Owner: George H. Schwary
• Trainer: Kathy Walsh
• Sire: Tribal Rule
• Dam: Ippodamia
• Notes:  Won the Del Mar Futurity at age 2 and then came back to defeat rival Derby hopefuls Into Mischief and Massive Drama in the San Vicente at Santa Anita on 2/10/08.  The San Vicente was a 4 horse race, but Georgie Boy, Into Mischief, and Massive Drama all got a good run at each other in the stretch.  Georgie Boy simply looked much the best.  He’s next pointing towards the San Felipe at Santa Anita on 3/15/08.

Georgie Boy outruns Into Mischief and Massive Drama to win the San Vicente on 2/10/08

9. Hey Byrn

Hey Byrn

• Owner: Beatrice Oxenberg
• Trainer: Eddie Plesa Jr.
• Sire: Put it Back
• Dam: Restraining Order
• Notes:  Won a 1 1/8 mile allowance race on 3/2/08 at Gulfstream Park in impressive fashion, defeating the likes of Alaazo.  Prior to that he prevailed by 14 lengths at Gulfstream in a 1 mile effort.  Hasn’t beaten Stakes winners yet, but has the look of a top competitor about him.  He’s caught Ron Correll’s eye and you’ll never see me disagree with that man’s eye for talent.  Hey Byrn is pointing towards the Grade 1 Florida Derby on 3/29, which should tell us a lot about some of the newer contenders on the Derby trail.  He should run into Big Brown and Elysium Fields in the Florida Derby.  Plesa will look to enlist the services of a new jockey for the Florida Derby.

Hey Byrn shown here prevailing at Calder last August

10. Big Brown

Big Brown

• Owner: Pegasus Holdings Group Stables
• Trainer: Richard Dutrow
• Sire: Boundary
• Dam: Mien
• Notes:  The lightly raced colt is 2 for 2 lifetime but has the horse racing world buzzing with his 12 3/4 length, 104 Beyer speed rating victory at Gulfstream Park on 3/5/08.  Their are concerns that he may face durability problems down the road, as he has had to overcome some foot issues, but his win was one of the more impressive we’ve seen from a 3 year old this year.  Hat tip to Phil J for turning me on to this horse.  We’re going to get to see him take on some decent competition in the Grade 1 Florida Derby on 3/29 where he’ll run into fellow Derby hopefuls Elysium Fields and Hey Byrn.

Big Brown blows away Allowance competition at Gulfstream Park on 3/5/08

Other Contenders To Watch:

• Court Vision:  Impressive 3 year old ran an eye-opening race in the Grade 2 Remsen last November at Aqueduct.  He also won in the Grade 3 Iroquois.  I know he finished a somewhat disappointing 3rd in the Fountain of Youth, but I really like the way he was moving in the end.  We now know that the fractions weren’t quite as soft as originally implied (the DRF has clocked the race somewhat faster), but it still didn’t look like he had a ton of speed to run at and he was moving sharply when it counted.  Consider that the other closer in the race, Anak Nakal, didn’t fire at all.  I think this colt did nothing to embarrass himself with that effort and I’m anxious to see him get both a longer distance and a bit more speed up front to run at.   
• Cool Coal Man: Winner of the Fountain of Youth Stakes seemed to benefit from a perfect stalking trip and didn’t really have to run his hardest to prevail.  He wasn’t on my list before, so this is a significant move forward, but forgive me for not listing him among the top contenders just yet. 
• Z Fortune: Winner of the Grade 3 Lecomte against derby hopeful Blackberry Road returned to run a decent 2nd in the Risen Star against the new and improved version of Pyro.  At one point it looked like Pyro was not going to fire and that Z Fortune was going to take the race.  We all know what happened next (as seen in the video clip below), as Pyro fired an ultra-impressive late run to prevail.  Z Fortune ran a pretty good race that day, and it’s hard to knock the colt for finishing 2nd against the most impressive move we’ve seen in the 3 year old crop yet this year.   I had dropped him from my rankings earlier, but he does have the feel of a contender rather than a pretender when held up to evaluation. 
• Majestic Warrior: 2008 debut in the Louisiana Derby resulted in a poor finish, but it was his first start in months and he was very much involved until fading late.  Look for improvement with his second start of the 2008 season.
• Roman Emperor: Put in a good run in the Whirlaway Stakes and then finished well in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct.  Has impeccable blood lines with Belmont Stakes winners on both sides of the pedigree chart.
• Texas Wildcatter: Looked to have the Gotham Stakes in the bag before being caught at the last second by Visionaire.  Ran impressively around two turns and looks like a horse to keep an eye on.
• Autism Awareness:  Colt blazed to victory in the El Camino Real Derby on 3/8/08 as a 62/1 longshot.  Trained by Genaro Vallejo, is owned by John Taboada, whose son Renzo was diagnosed with autism at age 2. The colt has not yet been nominated for the Kentucky Derby, but it sounds like his connections will be doing so after the performance in the El Camino Real Derby.
• Fierce Wind: Won the Sam F. Davis Stakes on 2/16/08 over such hopefuls as Z Humor. 
• Tale of Ekati: His debut in the Louisiana Derby did not go as planned as he never really seemed to find his comfort zone.  Still has a chance to develop in time for the Derby but the window of opportunity is starting to close.
• Monba: Very disappointing last place finish in the Fountain of Youth, but let’s not lose sight of the fact that the colt had a trip from hell after apparently being roughed up a bit during the beginning of the race.  Obviously never found his groove.  I’m willing to give him another try.
• Big Truck: I’ve been late to get on this guy, but he did run a heck of a race in the Sam F. Davis to finish just behind Fierce Wind.  At the time I was more of a Z Humor guy, but you’ll notice that he’s (Z Humor) no longer on my rankings.
• Giant Moon: Was undefeated heading into the Gotham, where he finished dead last.  Would like to see how this colt returns from that effort before totally writing him off.