THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

We’ve got 48 days until the “greatest two minutes in sports” with the running of the 2008 Kentucky Derby.  Obviously there’s been some shakeups this week.  The unbeatable War Pass got beat in the Tampa Bay Derby, and Sierra Sunset and Georgie Boy made impressive moves to win the Rebel Stakes and the San Felipe Stakes, respectively.

So where does this all leave us?  Well, I’ve locked myself away in the study and have spent hours going over the info in an attempt to rank the contenders as they stand today, the 16th of March.   What follows is a bit of an expanded rankings list from what you may be used to.  In keeping with the theory that ”bigger is better”, I’ve attempted to feed your desire for more information by numerically ranking the top 15 contenders as opposed to just the top 10.   As we get closer to Derby week, I plan on expanding further to a top 20 list. 

Without further adieu, let’s let the discussion begin.   All of the content you see below is also found on my main Road to the 2008 Kentucky Derby rankings page.  I’m using the “more” tag (as in “click here to read the rest of this post) as the load times are starting to get a bit longer thanks to the inclusion of so many youtube videos and pictures.   I remain committed nonetheless to giving you guys as much information as I can in one concise location to help make your own evaluations.  As always, I’d love to hear your own thoughts and opinions.

1. Pyro

Pyro

• Owner:  Winchell Thoroughbreds, L.L.C
• Trainer:  Steve Asmussen
• Sire:  Pulpit
• Dam:  Wild Vision
• Notes:  I’m just going to go ahead and say it now.  Regardless of what happens over the next month, I think it’s clear that Pyro has become “my colt” for this year’s Triple Crown season.   I moved him ahead of War Pass last week in a somewhat controversial move after his rousing win in the Louisiana Derby, and War Pass’s debacle in the Tampa Derby only solidifies that designation.  Pyro moved up to the top spot on my Derby watch list after an impressive win in the Louisiana Derby on 3/8/08 over a field that included Tale of Ekati, Majestic Warrior, and Blackberry Road.  The obvious knock to ranking him #1 is that he has run 2nd behind War Pass in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile and the Champagne Stakes.  Following those defeats he trained side by side at Fair Grounds with Curlin, the 2007 Horse of the Year.  Since that move we’ve seen what in my eyes is a new and improved colt that is able to finish the job in the stretch and gun down the horses in front of him.  It’s true he hasn’t been beating the toughest fields, but considering he can count Visionaire, Tale of Ekati, and Majestic Warrior among his recently beaten, it seems to me he’s doing all he can.  Nobody else seems to be doing that much better, including now his main rival, War Pass.  The main reason I move Pyro above War Pass is that I’ve now seen Pyro win twice around two distances against rivals while the speedy War Pass still has to prove he can handle the longer trip.  The Risen Star remains the most visually impressive performance in a Derby prep race this year in my opinion.  Up next for Pyro will be the Blue Grass at Keeneland on April 12.

Pyro wins the Grade 3 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds with a huge surge late in the stretch.

Pyro pulls away in the Louisiana Derby on 3/8/08.

2. War Pass

War Pass

• Owner: Lanes End & Robert LaPenta
• Trainer:  Nick Zito
• Sire:  Cherokee Run
• Dam:  Vue
• Notes:  Suddenly that unblemished career mark has become 5 for 6 rather than the 6 for 6 we all expected.  His debacle in the Tampa Bay Derby left many fans searching for answers.  Was the colt healthy entering the race?  Was he suffering from a fever?  Was it that he got knocked around a bit at the start of the race?  Perhaps a combination of all these factors.  The questions about whether he can thrash the competition with the added distance of the Triple Crown races will only continue now.  But let’s not be too tough on a guy who was the two yar old champion and soundly defeated our top colt, Pyro, in both career opportunities.  After all, everyone gets a mulligan.  We’ll see if he still points to the Wood Memorial, as was previously stated by Nick Zito.  If he does, I look for him to rebound nicely.  That just didn’t look like even the War Pass we saw handling Allowance level competition as recently as February.  The real War Pass is bound to show up again at some point in the near future, provided he is physically sound. 

War Pass runs away in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile

War Pass finishes dead last in a bewildering Tampa Bay Derby on 3/15.

3. Georgie Boy

Georgie Boy

• Owner:George H. Schwary
• Trainer: Kathy Walsh
• Sire: Tribal Rule
• Dam:Ippodamia
• Notes:  Won the Del Mar Futurity at age 2 and then came back to defeat rival Derby hopefuls Into Mischief and Massive Drama in the San Vicente at Santa Anita on 2/10/08.  The San Vicente was a 4 horse race, but Georgie Boy, Into Mischief, and Massive Drama all got a good run at each other in the stretch.  Georgie Boy simply looked much the best. Georgie Boy returned on 3/15 to win in impressive style in the San Felipe Stakes against speedsters Bob Black Jack and Gayego.  For a moment at the top of the stretch, it looked like Georgie Boy was in traffic trouble, but he swung wide around the aforementioned speedsters and gunned them down in the stretch to prevail.  In my mind he’s the top colt now on the California circuit with two very impressive wins in a row.  Move over Colonel John and The Bad Cat, there’s a new sheriff in town.   Up next is rather interesting.  Either a match-up against his rivals in the Santa Anita Derby or a trip east for the Arkansas Derby.  Personally I’d prefer to see him come east, but we’ll have to wait and see how this plays out.

Georgie Boy outruns Into Mischief and Massive Drama to win the San Vicente on 2/10/08

Georgie Boy swings wide to gun down Bob Black Jack and Gayego in the San Felipe on 3/15/08.

4. Denis of Cork

Denis of Cork 

• Owner:  Mr. and Mrs. William Warren
• Trainer:David Caroll
• Sire: Harlans Holiday
• Dam: Unbridled Girl
• Notes: Had “bucked shins” as a 2 year old which delayed his eventual debut.  Trained with fellow Derby hopeful Blackberry Road prior to making his belated debut.  Since then has run off a 3 for 3 record, including a win around two turns in the Southwest Stakes.  A colt that seems to have a tremendous amount of upside if he continues to develop in time for the Derby. He was pointing towards the Rebel Stakes until early last week when he was abruptly scratched.  His connections seem to think he’s sitting on a big one and are now likely pointing to the Grade 1 Wood Memorial in April for his final prep race.  The Illinois Derby remains a possibility but is somewhat less likely.  

  Denis of Cork comes from 15 lengths back at one point to win the Southwest Stakes by 3 lengths 

5. Sierra Sunset

Sierra Sunset

• Owner(s):Philip Labherz, Al Mariani, George Schmitt, & Carol Wirth
• Trainer: Jeff Bonde
• Sire: Bertrando
• Dam: Toot Sweet
• Notes: Ran a game 2nd behind the impressive Denis of Cork in the Grade 2 Southwest Stakes on 2/18.  Prior to that the colt had finished out of the money in 2 starts on synthetic surfaces in the Cash Call Futurity at Hollywood Park and the San Rafael Stakes at Santa Anita.  He’s really seemed to awaken since the switch from synthetic to dirt surfaces and won the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes in convincing fashion over rivals such as Z Fortune, Golden Yank, and Anak Nakal.  Up next will be the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on 4/12.

Sierra Sunset wins the Rebel in convincing fashion

6.  Colonel John

Colonel John

• Owner:  WinStar Farms
• Trainer:Eoin Harty
• Sire:  Tiznow
• Dam: Sweet Damsel
• Notes:Finished 2nd behind Into Mischief in the Cashcall Futurity, but showed a lot of heart after encountering plenty of traffic trouble in the trip. Prior to that he exploded from 4th to 1st in one move in the Real Quiet.  He came back to prevail in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita on March 1st against the highly regarded El Gato Malo.  The two colts now appear evenly matched atop the rankings of California 3 year olds.  Corey Nakatani currently rides Colonel John.  We’ll next see Colonel John renew his rivalry with El Gato Malo in the Santa Anita Derby in early April.  

Colonel John holds off El Gato Malo to win the Grade 3 Sham Stakes 

7.  El Gato Malo

El Gato Malo

• Owner:  West Point Thoroughbreds
• Trainer:  Craig Dollase
• Sir:  Ell Corredor
• Dam:  One Bad Cat
• Notes:  The bad cat shattered the 1 mile track record at Santa Anita with a 1:33.37 romp in the Grade 3 San Rafael Stakes on January 12th.  He’s got a nice stalking style and kicks it into gear turning for home.  If he handles the extra distance as well as he appears he should (he won the San Rafael running away by over 6 lengths), he could be a force on the Derby trail.  One of the more interesting colts to watch this season.  ”D-Flo”, David Flores currently rides El Gato Malo.  He faced off against Colonel John in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita on March 1st and finished 2nd in a thrilling stretch duel.  The bad cat was trapped on the rail for a moment before swinging wide and putting his run.  In the end that may have cost him as Colonel John was able to get his neck down at the wire prevail.  I’m not going to take anything away from El Gato Malo as he looked very game to me.  We’ll see this rivalry ensue again in the Santa Anita Derby in early April.

El Gato Malo swings wide after being stuck on the rail and almost catches Colonel John in the Sham Stakes.

8. Visionaire 

Visionaire comes from out of the clouds to nip Texas Wildcatter at the line in the G2 Gotham on 3/8/08 

• Owner: Team Valor International and Vision Racing
• Trainer: Michael Matz
• Sire: Grand Slam
• Dam: Scarlet Tango
• Notes: Ran a game third behind Pyro in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds in February.  Returned to prevail in the Grade 2 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on 3/8/08 when he nipped Texas Wildcatter at the wire.  The colt came from out of nowhere (literally, considering the dense cloud cover) to prevail in the Gotham.  Michael Matz had chosen the Gotham in favor of the Louisiana Derby as he felt it was an easier assignment for the developing colt.  Jose Lezcano currently rides Visionaire, who will next point to either the Wood Memorial on 4/5/08 at Aqueduct, or the Blue Grass Stakes on 4/12 at Keeneland. 

Visionaire wins a fog shrouded edition of the Gotham Stakes on 3/8/08

9. Big Brown

Big Brown

• Owner: Pegasus Holdings Group Stables
• Trainer: Richard Dutrow
• Sire: Boundary
• Dam: Mien
• Notes:  The lightly raced colt is 2 for 2 lifetime but has the horse racing world buzzing with his 12 3/4 length, 104 Beyer speed rating victory at Gulfstream Park on 3/5/08.  Their are concerns that he may face durability problems down the road, as he has had to overcome some foot issues, but his win was one of the more impressive we’ve seen from a 3 year old this year.  Hat tip to Phil J for turning me on to this horse.  We’re going to get to see him take on some decent competition in the Grade 1 Florida Derby on 3/29 where he’ll run into fellow Derby hopefuls Elysium Fields and Hey Byrn.  Perhaps the colt that makes the strongest visual impression on me of all the Derby contenders.

Big Brown blows away Allowance competition at Gulfstream Park on 3/5/08

10. Elysium Fields

Elysium Fields

• Owner: Robert S. Evans
• Trainer:Barclay Tagg
• Sire: El Prado
• Dam: Dreams
• Notes: Colt exploded onto the scene with an impressive 2nd place finish behind Cool Coal Man in the Fountain of Youth on February 24 at Gulfstream Park.  So why is Elysium Fields ranked and Cool Coal Man not on my list?  Well there are several for factors.  Let’s start with the fact that in Greek mythology, Elysium Fields was the final resting place for heroic souls.  Elysium is also mentioned in my favorite Shakespeare play, Henry V, just as Henry is imploring his “god of battles” to “steel his soldiers hearts” befor the battle of Agincourt.   Oh, wait, you actually want to know about the horse?  Know this, he looked much the best to me in the Fountain of Youth as he had a greener and somewhat more difficult trip than Cool Coal Man.  He appeared to be finished about midway through the stretch and than fought back to nearly catch Cool Coal Man.  Tagg is pointing him towards the Florida Derby on 3/29 in which he’ll face off against a nicely developing colt named Big Brown.

Elysium Fields puts in a courageous late bid that comes up a neck short in the Fountain of Youth. 

11. Hey Byrn

Hey Byrn

• Owner: Beatrice Oxenberg
• Trainer: Eddie Plesa Jr.
• Sire: Put it Back
• Dam: Restraining Order
• Notes: Won a 1 1/8 mile allowance race on 3/2/08 at Gulfstream Park in impressive fashion, defeating the likes of Alaazo.  Prior to that he prevailed by 14 lengths at Gulfstream in a 1 mile effort.  Hasn’t beaten Stakes winners yet, but has the look of a top competitor about him.  He’s caught Ron Correll’s eye and you’ll never see me disagree with that man’s eye for talent.  Hey Byrn is pointing towards the Grade 1 Florida Derby on 3/29, which should tell us a lot about some of the newer contenders on the Derby trail.  He should run into Big Brown and Elysium Fields in the Florida Derby.  Plesa will look to enlist the services of a new jockey for the Florida Derby.  He’s another that makes a beautiful impression from a visual perspective. 

Hey Byrn shown here prevailing at Calder last August

12. Cool Coal Man

Cool Coal Man defeats Elysium Fields to win the Fountain of Youth

• Owner: Robert Lapenta
• Trainer: Nick Zito
• Sire: Mineshaft
• Dam: Coral Sea
• Notes:Won the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes off of what appeared to be a perfect stalking trip.  He’s next pointing to the Toyota Bluegrass Stakes on 4/12/08.  Personally, I was more impressed with Elysium Fields’ performance in the FOY, but Cool Coal Man did prevail, which means he may actually deserve a better ranking.

Cool Coal Man uses a perfect stalking trip to win the Fountain of Youth on 2/24/08

13. Bob Black Jack

Bob Black Jack 

• Owner:Jeff Harmon & Tim Kasparoff
• Trainer:Tim Kasparaoff
• Sire: Stormy Jack
• Dam: Molly’s Prospector
• Notes:Colt set the world record at 6 furlongs with a 1:06.53 romp in the Sunshine Millions Dash at Santa Anita on 1/26/08.   To be honest, that run was likely aided by the track, which was playing to speed at the time and producing insanely fast results.  Still, the colt came back to run very well in the San Felipe on 3/15, finishing third behind Georgie Boy and Gayego.  He was on the gas the whole way around the track despite a bit of pressure from Gayego.  I like that he still had something left in the tank turning for home.  He looks like the type of front runner who could give War Pass fits up front if they both end up in the Derby.

Bob Black Jack sets the world record at 6 furlongs in the Sunshine Millions Dash.  

14. Big Truck

Big Truck (left) nails Atoned (right) to win the Tampa Bay Derby on 3/15 

• Owner:  Eric Fein
• Trainer: Barclay Tagg
• Sire: Hook and Ladder
• Dam: Just a Ginny
• Notes:  Has been quietly improving for some time, as evidenced by his recent 2nd place finish to Fierce Wind in the Sam F. Davis Stakes by half a length.  He returned to do the unthinkable by defeating War Pass in the Tampa Bay Derby.  What was most impressive about that effort was the way he battled Atoned throughout the stretch.  He might be entered in the Wood Memorial this April as a final prep for the Kentucky Derby.

Big Truck pulls the upset of the year over 1/9 favorite War Pass in the Tampa Bay Derby

15. Fierce Wind

Fierce Wind holds of Big Truck to win the Sam F. Davis on 2/16.

• Owner: Four Roses Thoroughbreds
• Trainer:Nick Zito
• Sire: Dixie Union
• Dam: Post Parade
• Notes: Colt broke his maiden on 12/16/07 at Calder by 10 lengths, then took Allowance level competition by 5 lengths in his second start.  Ran his record to 3-0 with a victory over Big Truck in the Sam F. Davis Stakes on 2/16.  Provides Nick Zito with yet another potential Derby hopeful.  He’s used both a front running and an off-the pace style attack to prevail in his three starts making him perhaps more versatile than many think.  The front running style was on display against maidens and allowance types, so it’s likely he’ll try to use a similar off the pace style as we saw in the Sam F. Davis if/when he draws into another major prep race.

Fierce Wind wins the Sam F. Davis Stakes

Other Contenders To Watch:

• Court Vision: Impressive 3 year old ran an eye-opening race in the Grade 2 Remsen last November at Aqueduct.  He also won in the Grade 3 Iroquois.  I know he finished a somewhat disappointing 3rd in the Fountain of Youth, but I really like the way he was moving in the end.  We now know that the fractions weren’t quite as soft as originally implied (the DRF has clocked the race somewhat faster), but it still didn’t look like he had a ton of speed to run at and he was moving sharply when it counted.  Consider that the other closer in the race, Anak Nakal, didn’t fire at all.  I think this colt did nothing to embarrass himself with that effort and I’m anxious to see him get both a longer distance and a bit more speed up front to run at. 
• Majestic Warrior: 2008 debut in the Louisiana Derby resulted in a poor finish, but it was his first start in months and he was very much involved until fading late.  Look for improvement with his second start of the 2008 season.
• Roman Emperor: Put in a good run in the Whirlaway Stakes and then finished well in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct.  Has impeccable blood lines with Belmont Stakes winners on both sides of the pedigree chart.
• Texas Wildcatter: Looked to have the Gotham Stakes in the bag before being caught at the last second by Visionaire.  Ran impressively around two turns and looks like a horse to keep an eye on.
• Autism Awareness: Edit: Injured and off the Derby trail.
• Atoned: Ran a close second to Big Truck after War Pass’s debacle in the Tampa Bay Derby.  May have needed that race and is still capable of improvement next month.
• Gayego: Sprinter stretched out nicely in the San Felipe at Santa Anita and wound up finishing better than Bob Black Jack, who I have ranked higher up above.  I’m not trying to get too crazy with the California colts here, but this one sure looks like a fighter as well.  I’m dreaming of a matchup with him, Bob Black Jack, The Colonel, The Bad Cat, and everyone else in the Santa Anita Derby in April.
• King’s Silver Son:  Steve Asmussen trainee looked impressive in Stakes competition for the first time in the Rebel Stakes when he put in a late charge for place.
• Z Fortune: I’m back and forth with the Lecomte winner and runner up of the Risen Star.  He got beaten soundly in the Rebel when he ran a rather flat race. I had dropped him from my rankings earlier, but he does have the feel of a contender rather than a pretender when he brings his best stuff.  May not be as quick as the more probable contenders though.
• Giant Moon: Was undefeated heading into the Gotham, where he finished dead last.  Would like to see how this colt returns from that effort before totally writing him off.