2007 Horse of the Year: Curlin
A date with destiny is rapidly approaching for Curlin, Eclipse Award winner for 2007 Horse of the Year. The 4 year old blasted his way through U.S. competition by winning the Preakness, Jockey Club Gold Cup, and Breeder’s Cup Classic last year. With one prep race under his belt for 2008, he now has his sights set on the Grade 1 Dubai World Cup this Saturday.
It’s a moment I”ve been waiting for ever since it was announced he was headed to Dubai earlier in the year. As many of you know, I’m quite fond of Curlin and consider him the greatest horse I’ve had the pleasure of seeing with my own eyes. I know that’s a bold statement, but I firmly stand behind it. I cheered for him all throughout his 3 year old campaign, including the euphoria of winning the Preakness and the Classic, as well as the agony of losing in the Belmont and Kentucky Derby. It’s been a roller-coaster ride, for sure, but I never for a moment doubted how talented he is.
Despite his wins in the Preakness and Classic, Curlin is still not quite as well known as I’d like him to be. From conversations I’ve had over the past year with folks who are not regular fans of the game, it’s easy to observe that Street Sense has somehow achieved more fame and name based recognition. This bothers me for a number of reasons, most notably that Curlin is 2 for 3 when head to head with Street Sense, and probably would’ve made it 3 for 3 if not for a “kiss of death” post position (the 2 hole) in the 2007 Kentucky Derby. Nonetheless, the public somehow remains fascinated with Street Sense, who has long since retired, while Curlin continues to march towards history. Owner Jess Jackson brought him back for his 4 year old campaign after we yet again watched with disappointment as the top 3 year olds in the nation retired to the breeding shed. Jackson said he wanted racing fans to have a hero to cheer for, and wanted a super star that could attract fans to the sport and restore some of the luster to our struggling sport. A win by Curlin this weekend would do much towards fulfilling that vision.
History itself could be in the makings this weekend if the 4-year-old son of Smart Strike is able to prevail in the prestigious event. He’s already racked up over $5 million in lifetime earnings with his 7 wins in 10 lifetime starts. A win in the Dubai World Cup could make him the horse with the most earnings in history. Currently that honor is held by the legendary Cigar, who won $9,999,815 over a storied career. With $6 million in total purse money on the line in Dubai, the lions share of which awarded to the winner of the World Cup, Curlin won’t quite break Cigar’s record with a win. However, a victory would put him in great position to overtake Cigar at some point later this year. You might say the son of Smart Strike would be in “striking position” – which if you’ve ever seen Curlin run is precisely when he’s at his best. Give him a target to run at and he’s bound to take aim at it with his giant closing strides.
Facing Curlin will be an impressive array of competitors from all over the world. The Dubai World Cup (DWC) stands to feature a full field of 13 horses, which represents the largest field in the history of the race. The top competitors of the world will line up to take their shot at the American super-horse this Saturday at Nad al Sheba racetrack. The field for the DWC looks like this:
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Curlin
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Jalil
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Vermilion
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Premium Tap
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Asiatic Boy
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A.P. Arrow
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Well Armed
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Happy Boy
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Great Hunter
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Gloria De Campeo
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Lucky Find
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Kocab
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Stay Ed
Jalil is an interesting competitor for Godolphin Stables, as he was a staggering $9.7 million purchase as a yearling. He started off a bit slow, but the 4 year old son of Storm Cat and brother to After Market has handled his DWC prep races exceptionally well. He won the Grade 2 Al Maktoum Challenge (Group III) using a determined drive from around mid-pack to take command in the stretch. He’s got 4 wins and 2 places in 7 lifetime starts and is in exceptional form. I think he’ll be the biggest threat to Curlin on Saturday.
Folks may recall Premium Tap from last year’s World Cup, where he dueled with Invasor through much of the stretch before finally being put away by the 2006 Horse of the Year. The 6 year old son of Pleasant Tap won the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques Cup and the Crown Prince Cup at Dubai last year before going down in the DWC. Interestingly, just a few weeks ago trainer Julio Gardel had indicated Premium Tap might skip the DWC, but now he has officially entered. My gut tells me that he was a better horse last year and that his connections are hoping for a minor award at best.
Vermilion is the top dirt horse in all of Japan. The 6 year old is out of the Sunday Silence mare Scarlet Lady and has won 4 races in a row in Japan since finishing 4th in last year’s DWC. Most recently he won the prestigious Grade 1 February Stakes at Tokyo. Vermilion looks to be in sharp form entering Saturday’s race and could be one of the main challengers to Curlin.
Happy Boy, like Jalil, is from Godolphin Stables and figures to be a main rival. The son of Ski Champ prevailed in Group I of the Al Maktoum Challenge and has proven he can handle the Dubai track. He’s a Brazilian bred with a lot of upside that many bettors will find reason to support on Saturday. His only race at Nad al Sheba he won by an impressive 9 lengths. My guess is that one of the Godolphin horses will be the main competition, I just tend to think Jalil may be the main threat with Happy Boy close behind.
In keeping with the “boy” theme, Asiatic Boy is a 5 year old son of Not for Sale that is owned by Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa al Maktoum. Asiatic Boy will be trying to become the first horse in history to win both the UAE Derby and the Dubai World Cup. He’s trained by Mike de Kock, one of the best South African trainers in the game. Prior to being defeated in his last start he was a perfect 5 for 5 at Nad al Sheba. Clearly he’ll be fodder for “horse for the course” type players.
Well Armed is a big, strong looking son of Tiznow. He fractured his pelvis in the 2006 UAE Derby and spent 19 months on the bench as a result. He’s trained by Eoin Harty, of Colonel John fame. Lately he’s been running at Santa Anita, having finished 2nd in the Grade 2 San Pasqual Handicap in January and then defeating the highly regarded Heatseeker in the San Antonio Handicap on February 9th. He figures to be the possible pace of the race and should lead the field into the final turn.
Great Hunter hasn’t won a race in over a year. At one point he managed to defeat Street Sense when they were both 2 year old’s in the 2006 Lane’s End Breeder’s Futurity. Street Sense of course went on to win the 2007 Kentucky Derby. Great Hunter ran in the Derby but finished well out of the money. The 4 year old son of Aptitude will be ridden by jockey Garrett Gomez, and features a late closing style that could put him at a disadvantage if no one goes after Well Armed on the lead.
Of the rest, A.P. Arrow is a Todd Pletcher trainee and 6 year old son of A.P. Indy. I don’t really know that much about him, but my gut tells me he’s a longshot. Gloria De Campeo has been running behind Jalil and Happy Boy in recent preps and would be something of a longshot to win, although a minor award seems possible. I’ll just come right out and admit that I know next to nothing about Kocab, Stay Ed, and Lucky Find. If any of them were to prevail it would be fairly big upset.
You won’t need to see a race-day update from me to know my selection. I’m 100% behind Curlin and will be cheering my heart out for him as they turn for home. I could see big runs from Jalil and Happy Boy, with Vermillion and Asiatic Boy being my next tier of competition. Well Armed, as stated above, could be a handful if alone on the lead, but ultimately I think he’ll be the target that Curlin focuses on. I look for Curlin to gun them down in the stretch and come away crowned as an international champion.
Go get ‘em, Curlin. It’s time to take your place as the world’s finest.
Street Sense won the worlds most important and well-known horse race. Curlin would have to do something along the lines of 17 wins in a row to even have a chance to be mentioned first or remembered longer than Street Sense. And breaking Cigar and Citation’s record still probably wouldn’t be enough. He’ll more likely be remembered for his defeat to the filly Rags to Riches in the Belmont than he will his victories in the BC Classic and Preakness.
Honestly, how many people outside of me, you and the rest of the real horse racing fans even care about the Dubai World Cup? No one …
My sister, my buddies mom and the clerk at the local Wawa all watch the Kentucky Derby.
BTW … I really like Vermillion in this race.
Yeah, you’re right. Most folks don’t pay attention to the Dubai World Cup – and I can’t say I blame them since I’m not even sure it will be on TV. That’s something when the Lane’s End is on but the DWC potentially not.
I like Vermillion too. I think he’s looked really good lately. Vermillion, Happy Boy, Jalil, and Curlin look really good. I guess Asiatic Boy could wake up. Well Armed might be on the lead so I’ll toss him in as well.
It will be on ESPN360.com – you can watch it live.
I think I’m more excited about this race than the Kentucky Derby. Thank gosh it’s this Saturday, I don’t want to wait a day longer than that! You did it to me K- I never paid attention to the Dubai race before, and didn’t know who Curlin even was. Now I need to get out of bed early on a Saturday to watch him race!
I’ll probably be a nervous wreck on Saturday like I am before all of his races. I feel like I have to be properly mentally focused for him to have a chance to win. I know that’s crazy, but I can’t help but feel it.
I still to this day think he lost the Belmont only because I wasn’t there to cheer him on in person. I’m certain adding my voice to the chorus of fans would’ve somehow prompted him to find an extra gear and run down Rags.
Kinda sad that she retired today.
Well Armed is a gelding. Wow.
Yeah, and he should be the speed – at least from what I can tell so far. A lot of these guys I don’t really know much about though.
Are you fond of Curlin? Naw. Just a little. Heh.
On DRF I often check the Watchmaker Watch…
Older Females
1 – Rags to Riches
Good to see champ back on work tab
Is she really retired? He put a similar comment for Curlin when he first worked out this year.
If she raced against Curlin again, Curlin would be the 3-5 favorite; 1-5 if it was a match race. She might be able to take him in a 4 furlong sprint at Charles Town, but that’s about it. She couldn’t beat him again at 1.5m in NY. The Belmont was a fluke. She’s a fine horse but I don’t think she could even beat the mare Inside Information if she was still running. Do I have something against the girls? Absolutely not. I planned to bet Inside Information over Cigar in the Breeder’s Cup Classic -what an upset that would have been. She was entered in both the Classic and Distaff, but they chose to run her in the Distaff… She romped of course, in a time Cigar would have been hard pressed to handle.
It’s a shame Street Sense got more attention than Curlin. He’s not even in the same league. Calvin Borel deserves so much of the credit for his great ground saving trips that made the horse look better than he really was. I believe Curlin can get a good share of national attention if he wins the Cup and comes back over here and sets some track records or wins by some big margins and makes Sports Center’s top plays. I believe Phil is right that he’ll never be a legend, unless of course he gets a rematch with Rags to Riches and he beats her by 31 lengths. Even then they would just say she wasn’t handling the track, or she had a fever earlier in the week.
Oops, just read about Rags to Riches retiring due to injury on DRF. That’s a shame.
Here are some encouraging quotes from Steve Asmussen for those of us hopeful that Curlin will race the rest of the year…
“I don’t want this to be the end of his year,” said Asmussen. “I think you can look at the animal and see how well-adjusted he is from the trip. I do not think he’s going to be the most tired horse cooling out [after Saturday's race] by far. And we are expecting a very big second half of the year for him.
“We’ve approached this year the same way we did last year,” Asmussen continued. “Last year he had a distinctive two seasons: Triple Crown, Breeders’ Cup Classic. This year: Dubai World Cup, Breeders’ Cup Classic.”
You can read the rest of the article here if you are signed up at drf.com…
http://www.drf.com/news/article/93186.html
Ah, good stuff Jerry! It certainly appears he’s on the verge of a monster season if all goes well on Saturday.
I totally agree about Rags vs him. She only beat him because of the crawling early fractions and the “sprint” end to the Belmont. She’s a magnificent horse for being able to do so, and certainly a “freak” in her own right, but I’ve always wanted Curlin to get another crack at her.
Who knows..maybe in a few years we’ll have the sons of Curlin and Rags going at it in May?
I can’t watch the Cup race on ESPN360 because Comcast is my internet provider. I have TVG and HRTV though. Will they show the race, or will I have to watch a tape of this race that I’ve waited for so long for?
Curlin is listed at 4/9 odds (bodoglife.com,) slightly better than 2-5 which you would see displayed on the tote board at a race track.
Here’s an interesting prop bet:
2008 Dubai World Cup (G1) Nad Al Sheba, Dubai
Curlin vs. The Field.
Curlin
-225
Field (Any Other Runner)
+165
Unfortunately I don’t know what odds -225 is equivalent to. Perhaps someone who plays sportsbooks can tell us. It would be interesting to see if that’s better than his 4/9 win odds. You can bet Curlin will win or get beat by any other horse in the field. A prop bet like this can often provide better odds than a regular win bet.
Street Sense only won the Derby because of a perfect trip. They let him through on the rail. Hard Spun should have won and that is who I picked to win.
I was tempted to bet Hard Spun myself, but most speed horses have trouble running a faster pace than they’re accustomed to while having to run 10 furlongs for the first time. I figured Curlin would likely encounter at least some traffic problems, but I hoped he could negotiate his way through the pack. Robby was blocked on the turn and couldn’t ask Curlin for run until Street Sense had already cruised well by on the rail. After stumbling in the Preakness, and still running down Street Sense, one could argue that Curlin could have won the Derby if he was the one who had a dream trip. Hard Spun was a very nice horse, particulary when allowed to take the lead, though second best to Curlin as we saw in the Classic.
Here is Saturday’s program schedule for HRTV (Horse Racing TV.)
Apparently they’re going to show the race live! If you don’t have HRTV, you can contact your TV service provider to see if it’s available.
March 29, 2008
9:00 AM Nad Al Sheba
DUBAI WORLD CUP
12:00 PM Race Day America
12:00 PM Gulfstream Park
FLORIDA DERBY
12:10 PM Laurel M5 Race
1:00 PM Aqueduct
NEXT MOVE HANDICAP
2:00 PM Oaklawn Park
3:30 PM Santa Anita Park
TOKYO CITY CUP
7:00 PM Mountaineer
7:25 PM Remington Park (QH)(in progress)
7:30 PM Delta Downs
CLOSING DAY
8:20 PM Balmoral Park (H)
8:30 PM Cal Expo (H)(in progress)
8:30 PM Australia (in progress)
the next day…
12:30 AM Oaklawn Replays
1:00 AM Gulfstream Replays
1:30 AM Santa Anita Replays
You can watch the race live via the internet, @ ESPN360.com as well.
I can’t diss, apparently you need Verizon or another supported internet provider. I have Comcast and was denied.
Dang…..I don’t get HRTV. Figures, doesn’t it? I just might have to head for the OTB in York, PA so that I don’t miss it. I can’t miss this one…..or the Florida Derby!
I had Hard Spun and Curlin last year in the Derby, though I was worried about being on th lead (Hard Spun) and the post position (Curlin). I just couldn’t back Street Sense. I also took Tiago and (I’m ashamed to admit this) Scat Daddy.
Are past performances available for the Dubai World Cup?
Kevin – The Preakness last year was your favorite race of all time. You say you had Hard Spun, Curlin, Tiago, and Scat Daddy in the Derby. Was Curlin your key horse? What had you pulling for Curlin so much in the Preakness? I loved Curlin because he was my Derby pick. After he finished a distant third, I was completely baffled as to whom to bet on in the Preakness. I only decide to bet Curlin in the Preakness because I was so confident in him to win the Derby and was just praying he would redeem himself.
I’ll have to check and see if PP’s are available on the DRF website later today.
Regarding the Preakness, as my wife Amy can attest – I obsessively watched the Derby over and over again on our DVR. I kept focusing on Curlin, because he was a distant 3rd and I thought he was the best horse going into the race. I took note of all the trouble he had. There are about 3 occassions in the Derby where he’s boxed in with no where to go. Watching him weave around tiring horses at the end to get up for 3rd convinced me that if he got a clean run at S.Sense and H.Spun, he could turn the tables on them.
On Preakness Day I remember looking at the thoroughbred times special that day. They had 5 or 6 handicappers making their picks, and only one mentioned Curlin (he had him picked for show). They also had an interview with Beyer and several others (I think maybe Watchmaker and Crist) that they showed on the jumbotron earlier in the day. The consensus was that there was no way a “green” Curlin could make up the lengths that S.Sense beat him by.
I just knew he’d find a way to make them eat crow.
Also watched him in the post parade and thought he looked calm, focused, and ready to make name for himself.
Is AP Arrow releated to AP Warrior?
Amy, there are tons of “AP” named horses from the A.P. Indy line.
Jerry, Kev had Curlin all the way, he was estatic after the win at Pimlico, I can’t count how many times we watched the Derby and the Preakness. To piggy back off of Kev’s comment about the commentators the saddest part was when they interviewed Street Sense’s jockey after the Breeder’s Cup rather than Albarado.
In their (the announcers) defense, babe – I think Albarado’s microphone malfunctioned so they had to go to Calvin Borrel instead.
Are you the least bit worried about the Dubai hangover that has said to have claimed the career of some nice horses? It sounds ridiculous on the surface, but the list of horses who have never run the same, or even started again once returning is growing pretty long.
Oh god yes I’m worried. I worry about everything. I’m already having trouble sleeping at night worrying about whether he’ll win and come home in good shape.
I was trying to find data on that whole Dubai hangover thing and could really only get lists of the horses with problems – but I’ve heard others say that just as many come back fine. Still, it does seem to have some substance to it if you ask me. I think it’s tough to ship horses around the world like that. We know they can get stressed out changing climates just here in the states….makes sense that some would go downhill fast going there and back.
Amy wrote : “Jerry, Kev had Curlin all the way, he was estatic after the win at Pimlico, I can’t count how many times we watched the Derby and the Preakness.”
Kevin loves Curlin even more than I do, and that’s saying a lot. I was just curious how the love affair got started. I hope it didn’t come across any different. For me, I was picking him to win the triple crown, but then he lost the Derby. I was getting jeering emails titled “Curlin Who?” When I suggested that he was blocked, they said I was making excuses -the race wasn’t even close, etc. Then he redeemed himself in thrilling fashion in the Preakness. I guess it’s been the roller coaster ride of emotion (excitement, dissapointment, embarrassment, redemption) that I’ve been through with this horse and I feel like he’s out there battling for me. That’s how I got hooked on Curlin.
Oh Jerry, don’t mind Amy – she didn’t mean anything by that.
I hear you loud and clear, bro. I coldn’t agree more. Your comment about how it feels he’s out there battling for you – AMEN! That’s precisely how I feel. Damn I wish I had said that myself! I think deep down inside I wanted to love a horse this much. I’ve sort of always been subconsciously been looking for “the one.” The moment I saw him I knew he was it. And to be so tantalizingly close to all we could’ve hoped for – well, that’s basically why I’m still awake right now.
Sorry Jerry that I wasn’t clear, I didn’t mean anything negative, I was adding to Kev’s previous comment about ” Regarding the Preakness, as my wife Amy can attest – I obsessively watched the Derby over and over again on our DVR” SORRY!!
I came off as questioning how much Kevin really liked Curlin and you were just supporting the (obvious) fact that he does. There’s nothing to be sorry about. BTW – I think it’s cool that you share some of Kevin’s enthusiam for the sport!
I wasn’t into it at first because I really didn’t understand how to bet, I only got lucky a couple times basing my bet on names I liked. Kev sat down with me and showed me how to handicap and I did well (beginners luck I think) and than I was hooked! Our 4 year old even watches some times and just likes to scream at the tv “GO Orange 7!”