THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

One of the  major Kentucky Derby prep races featured this Saturday will be the $500,000 Grade 2 Illinois Derby, going 1 1/8 miles on the main track at Hawthorne.  The field has drawn seven entries, who are listed below by post position along with jockey and morning line odds.

1. Recapturetheglory – T.T. Baird (8/1)
2. Instill – Christopher Emigh (15/1)
3. Z Humor – Rene Douglass (3/1)
4. Atoned – Joe Bravo (4/1)
5. Denis of Cork – Julien Leparoux (2/1*)
6. Golden Spikes – Timothy Thornton (5/1)
7. Real Appeal- James Graham (8/1)

Denis of Cork has been established as the 2/1 morning line favorite, and rightfully so.  The undefeated David Carroll trained colt will try to run his career mark to 4 for 4 if he can get past the field, which doesn’t look significantly daunting on paper.  He’s exiting a sound victory in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes on 2/18 that entrenched him on nearly every handicapper’s top 10 list of Derby contenders.  Since that time he’s been on the shelf, as his connections have wavered over the correct race to conclude his Derby preparations.   In the meantime, his stock hasn’t really been hurt with the time off as the horses that ran for 2nd in the Southwest Stakes (Sierra Sunset) and third (Liberty Bull) have come back to win Stakes of their own.   Sierra Sunset came back to win the Rebel Stakes on 3/15 before being sidelined with an injury, and Liberty Bull took the WinStar Derby at Sunland Park.  It looks like Denis of Cork’s connections chose the right place to get a win here as he won’t be running into anything like Big Brown, Pyro, or War Pass.

Denis of Cork romps in the G3 Southwest Stakes on 2/18

Looking at the competition,  I disagree with the morning line odds on Z Humor (3/1) and Atoned (4/1) and think they should be switched.  Z Humor hasn’t really shown anything yet this year with two flat efforts in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (2/16) and the Fountain of Youth (2/24).  At one point in time I was fairly high on this colt after he won the Delta Jackpot (12/7/07) in a dead heat – but the Delta Jackpot hasn’t exactly come close to being anything like a “key race.”   A win or place on Saturday could get the colt in the right direction and make a shot at the Kentucky Derby in May more realistic, but I just haven’t seen anything yet this year that warrants accepting him at second choice odds.

Atoned, on the other hand, may well be the best of Todd Pletcher’s Derby hopefuls.  The colt looked impressive in running 2nd behind Big Truck in the Tampa Derby after War Pass’s well documented demise.  In fact, if you go back and look at the Tampa Bay Derby, Big Truck had to catch Atoned in the final strides to win.  Some folks are thinking Atoned can’t bring home the victory, as he’s had a habit of finishing 2nd (he also ran 2nd behind Court Vision in the Remsen last year as a two year old).  I’m not sure that’s the case.  He’s clearly going to be the main challenger to Denis of Cork in my opinion. 

Atoned is caught by Big Truck in the final strides of the Tampa Bay Derby

There are a couple of other colts that stick out to me as possibilities to hit the board.  Certainly Z Humor will be on many tickets, and I’ll end up using him as well, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he finished out of the money considering those last two efforts.   Rene Douglass does get the mount on Z Humor, and he could help wake him up, so in my mind Z Humor is really the x-factor of the race.  Which version of the colt will show up on Saturday?  If it’s the horse that prevailed (in a “dead heat”) in the Delta Jackpot, then certainly he’s one of the top three.  If, however, it’s the colt that ran flat in the Fountain of Youth and the Sam F. Davis, then I think you need to look elsewhere.

Two colts that might get overlooked at the betting window are Real Appeal and Golden Spikes.   Real Appeal is a gray colt trained by Thomas Amoss that looks to me to be on the improve.  I love playing such horses underneath in trifectas.  He finished 4th in what was admittedly a weak Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes earlier in the year, but then came back to win the ungraded Texas Heritage Stakes at Sam Houston.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he hung around for a minor award. 

Golden Spikes is also a bit interesting.  Most folks will forget that for a brief period in the Fountain of Youth, he was actually setting the pace.  Admittedly it wasn’t the swiftest of paces we’ve seen, but it’s still noteworthy.  Previously he had proven he could run with Cool Coal Man, who went on to win the aforementioned Fountain of Youth, by running 2nd to him at the allowance level.  Trainer Marty Wolfson is taking the blinkers off Golden Spikes, which could help him stay more involved with the race.  Also note that Tim Thornton is picking up the mount on Saturday.   I see enough here to include him in my exotics as well.

Recapturetheglory and  Instill are two I’d take a long look at in the post parade, as they’ve proven they can handle two-turn routes at Hawthorne in the past.  They’d also stand to offer more value than Golden Spikes and Real Appeal if they were to come in underneath. 

This one doesn’t look like rocket science to me.  The race is Denis of Cork’s to lose, with Atoned being the only serious challenger in my opinion.   Z  Humor, Golden Spikes, and Real Appeal are the ones I think can hit the board for show. but you may want to take a shot and hit the “all” button for show since the field is relatively small.  I’ll probably keep my trifecta ticket cheap in this one and go:

5 / 4/ 3, 6, 7 

Like I said though, don’t be scared to cover the field for show honors – as just about any of them could get up and you’ll probably need a longer-shot horse in the money for the ticket to return anything half-way decent.

I may play Atoned to win or include him in first on the ticket if he holds as the 3rd betting choice, as I feel that’s a little more value than we ought to receive.  However, I fully expect him to be the 2nd betting choice once wagering opens, as I’m not seeing enough for folks to accept Z Humor at 3/1.  Personally, I’d make Denis of Cork a stronger favorite, drop Atoned down to 3/1, and make Z Humor closer to 5/1, but that’s just my opinion.