THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

That’s right folks, I’ve finally returned from California.  It’s been a long and somewhat exhausting trip, but a good one nonetheless.  I’ve been on planes and dealing with airports since roughly 4 AM PST, so forgive me if my thoughts seem a bit disjointed today.  I’m dead tired.  I’m not going to let that stop me though from enjoying the final serious Derby prep races tomorrow, as I fully plan to take in a day of live racing action at Pimlico.  That being said, the Tessio at Pimlico doesn’t appear to have any serious Derby contenders, so we’ll focus our coverage on the Coolmore Lexington Stakes instead.

This Saturday’s running of the Coolmore Lexington Stakes at Keeneland features several horses still flirting with visions of a Kentucky Derby run.  This will be their last chance to pick up much needed graded stakes earnings in an attempt to qualify for the “greatest 2 minutes in sports” on May 3.  

The Coolmore is a Grade 2 Stakes going 1 1/16 miles over the synthetic Polytrack at Keeneland.  Eleven horse have drawn into the field, which sets up like this:

1. Atoned (Edgar Prado) 3/1
2. Salute the Sarge (M.C. Baze) 4/1
3. Samba Rooster (Garrett Gomez) 8/1
4. St. Joe (Miguel Mena) 8/1
5. Racecar Rhapsody (Robby Albarado) 9/2
6. Felon (Julien Leparoux) 20/1
7. Behindatthebar (David Flores) 12/1
8. Tomcito (jorge Chavez) 6/1
9. Big Glen (Rene Douglass) 12/1
10. Riley Tucker (John Velasquez) 12/1
11. Red Sandy (Jamie Theirot) 30/1

First things first, it’s been brutal trying to pick winners at Keeneland all meet.  Sure you get some longshots, but more often than not seemingly sure-thing chalks seem to suffer inexplicable defeats (Pyro, anyone?).  That really makes me nervous about Saturday because there’s a colt in here that I think the world of and would love to see move forward.

I first discovered Salute the Sarge watching Hollywood Park on TVG last summer.  I liked how he  looked in the post parade of a Maiden Special Weight event and selected him at odds of nearly 11/1.  He rallied in the stretch to prevail by a 1/2 length over Slam Slew, who returned to win his next race.  ‘Sarge went on to win his next 2, running off an impressive 3 for 3 lifetime record before falling to Georgie Boy in the Del Mar Futurity last September.  Georgie Boy beat him by 1 1/2 lengths, and went on to be considered a top contender for best overall 3  year old colt in California.  Unfortunately for Georgie Boy, he had some injury trouble earlier this year and is no longer on the Derby trail, but if he were he’d no doubt be a horse some would be talking about seriously.

Named for ex-trainer and TVG analyst Nick “the Sarge” Hines, Salute the Sarge next suffered back to back defeats, including a devastating 33 length loss in the Breeders Cup Juvenile in the slop at Monmouth.  That race is an obvious toss when looking at his past performance profile.  He came back to win the San Miguel at Santa Anita on March 29, beating a pretty good sprinter in Leonides at the short 6 furlong distance. 

Salute the Sarge is just the type of gutsy horse I tend to fall in love with.  I’ve watched this guy battle back through adversity, and if you’ll forgive my sanity for a moment (I warned you I’ve been on planes all day), I dare say he may have beaten Georgie Boy in the Futurity had he not encountered a bit of traffic trouble.   That’s really saying something and in my opinion deserves looking at again.  I’ve included the replay from the Del Mar Futurity last May below.  Salute the Sarge will come up late between horses to take 2nd place at the wire.  What I really want you to focus on is the steadying he had to do at roughly the 1:15 mark in the film below.  They’re right at the top of the stretch, and if you can spot the rider in the white cap having to rear back on his horse - you’ll have found Salute the Sarge.  Watch from that point forward keeping in mind that he no doubt lost at least one and likely several steps there, and then note how close he is to a colt as highly regarded as Georgie Boy.

Salute the Sarge encounters trouble at the top of the stretch (roughly 1:15 into video) but then fights back between horses for 2nd place in the Del Mar Futurity in May 2007.

 I think this is a very underrated colt.   I don’t think he has a prayer of a chance against the top rated colts in the nation on true dirt in the Derby or the Preakness, but I like his chances here today on the synthetic track. I’m also hoping that folks will ignore him a bit because of others with seemingly higher Beyer speed figure races.  

Tomcito is a very interesting horse to me.  A few weeks ago I gave him out as a trifecta filler underneath in the Florida Derby when the folks at the sports mafia were nice enough to invite me onto a podcast.  I like him here today for the same reasons I did then.  I like his connections, and I like that he has beaten older colts in previous efforts.  He also doesn’t appear to have any distance limitations to be concerned about, and in fact would appear to actually enjoy a bit more than the 1 1/16 of the Coolmore Lexington.  Still, I think his connections are thinking Derby run and they’ve probably picked the lightest major prep they could find to try and pick up some graded earnings. 

Atoned is a horse that just can’t seem to catch a break.  He’s got 4 second place finishes in his last 5 starts, including 2 by a neck and 1 by a nose. That’s got to be excruciating for his connections, especially since he’s gone up against some of the better 3 year olds.  Edgar Prado takes the reins today, which is interesting and certainly gives the colt a chance of waking up.  I”m just not ready to take a colt with what appears to be well documented “seconditis” as the favorite.  He should certainly factor into the race, but it would be tough to support a win here.

The rest of the field is a bit questionable, but as stated earlier - anything is possible at Keeneland.  Rhacecar Rhapsody will likely take a bit of play at the windows, having finished respectably in the Lane’s End.  I’m not buying though.  He hasn’t really done much since breaking his maiden and he’s got that dreaded Delta Jackpot finish in his past which appears to have been a slightly overrated race.  I’ll pass.

Big Glen won by a neck in the Rushaway, but appears to be one of the weaker off the pace types in here.  A finish in the money is possible if he can get a speed duel up front, which it appears may well happen.

Speaking of speed duels, there are two front running types in here that could both prove dangerous if one were to get loose on the lead.  St. Joe posted a 97 Beyer in an Allowance level victory on April 4 at Keeneland.  He appears a synthetic specialist that is very fond of the Keeneland track.  That being said, we’ve only got one race over 1 mile in distance to evaluate him with and it wasn’t one of his best.  If this were a 7 furlong race he’d be the standout favorite. 

Samba Rooster is another that appears to need the lead, but he’s got a disturbing habit of fading late at shorter distances.  If nothing else he’ll put up an early fight but will likely only serve to burn St. Joe out - which would open things up for someone coming off the pace. Garrett Gomez does take the mount, which has to be respected - but will it be enough?

I’ll stick to my guns here and take Salute the Sarge at 4/1 to win.  Any horse that was good enough to run with Georgie Boy ought to be able to handle this field.  Tomcito would be my second choice at 6/1.  I think if the odds are right he’s probably worth a saver win bet as well, as we still don’t quite know what kind of horse we have with him.

Atoned is an obvious play underneath, and I’ll keep St. Joe and Samba Rooster around for show thinking that one of them might hang on and wind up in the money. My el-cheapo trifecta would look like this:

4/8/1,3,4

Best of luck to all!  Go  get ‘em Sarge!!! 

Oh yes, and don’t forget you can watch along on ESPN2 Saturday at 5:00 PM EST.