Every year we go through this ritual. Twenty or so of the finest 3 year olds in the nation gather for the prestigious running of the Kentucky Derby, and all of us handicappers rush out to make our selections and identify “our horse” that we will back and support for the race.
When we pick right, we look like geniuses. When wrong, we look like buffoons. More often then not, we do pick wrong. It’s only logical that with a 1 in 20 shot in such fields that you’re bound to wind up on more wrong picks than right. Those few occasions where you do pick the right horse publicly become moments in time that are impossible to forget and fill our hearts with a sense of satisfaction and pride.
I’m a guy that lives and dies a bit too much on pride. I’ve got many friends that will ask me casually about horse racing as the Derby approaches, and nearly all want to know “who’s going to win?” Trying to make them understand that the best you can do is reduce the field to likely contenders and then pick from there seems to meet with looks of disbelief. Attempts to rationalize the difficulty involved reach some, but not all.
As an avid football fan, I challenge folks that most fans aren’t able to correctly predict the Super Bowl winner – even when it’s reduced down to just two teams. I mean c’mon – you’ve got a 50/50 shot there and most experts can’t even pick that right. What’s a lowly horseplayer to do when they’re down to a 1 in 20 shot? Case in point would be this past Super Bowl. While much of the “smart” betting money was indeed on the Giants (due to their ability to “cover the spread” as opposed to the Patriots seeming inability to do so down the stretch), you’d be hard pressed to find folks that could seriously articulate to you “how” the Giants might be able to pull it off. On paper it seemed a slam dunk.
Imagine then, if you will, how difficult it is to select a single winner from a field of 20 top notched contenders. Do you go with the best horse overall? Do you attempt to predict the pace setup of the race and see who “should” benefit the most? Is your conscience and reasoning affected by a “what have you done for me lately” syndrome, whereby only recent winners register in your mind, and the heroics of February and March seem too distant to recall? Complicating matters further is that many passionate fans have already started to identify with one horse or another. This is fantastic from a fan standpoint, as nothing brings more joy than being able to cheer your heart out for a particular horse (much like my fetish/infatuation/obsession/however you choose to classify it with Curlin), but betting with your heart can be a recipe for disaster, as all too many horseplayers know all too well.
So what am I rambling about this for now? Well, it’s that time of year and I’m being asked by many people who “my horse” is. The sad truth is that I don’t really have a single horse. I’m actually stuck between 4 horses that I’m convinced the winner will come from, barring some horrible post position scenario.
The 4 I’m stuck on would be Big Brown, Gayego, Pyro, and Colonel John. These just seem to be the best 4 in my opinion, and I must confess that I’d be shocked if the winner was someone else. That being said, you can’t go out and publicly predict 4 winners of a single race – and therein lies the trap. How, once reduced to 4, can you attempt to separate further without inviting disaster?Tread carefully, ye of little resolve. For the path to horseplayer glory is littered with the carcasses of those who have tried in vein before you. Personally I can draw little confidence from my own track record. I bet against Street Sense last year. I was a Bandini fan a few years back. It gets even more embarrassing (trust me) the further back you go.
The answer for the moment is that you simply can’t pick a horse yet. It’s still too early. The field hasn’t been finalized. We’ve got several workouts pending, and of course there’s the dreaded post position draw. I’m still of the opinion that drawing the 2 hole last year destroyed any chance my beloved Curlin had of winning. I love how the announcers on ESPN will still reference his 3rd place finish in a field of 20 and say confidently that it “proves” that a green horse is a risk in the Derby. Fiddlesticks, I say. Sure experience matters, but the game seems to be changing and they don’t run these colts as often as they used to. I just don’t think you can toss a talent like Curlin last year, or Big Brown this year on grounds of inexperience alone. As I say that, realize that in watching Curlin’s Preakness run last year, I do think he still looked “green” at times. I remember thinking then “if that horse ever puts it all together – watch out!!”
What this means to me is that Big Brown has to be considered a serious favorite here. His win in the Florida Derby looks to me like it would’ve left everyone else running for place and show, no matter who else had been in the field. Of course, we won’t be betting on the Florida Derby come May 3, so it’s still possible that a pace duel or the aforementioned post position draw could spell doom for the highly touted colt. I just think he is “the best” of the field and deserves to be the favorite.
Looking at the other contenders on my short list, I’m a guy that is probably a bit biased in favor of the California horses. No doubt this is due to the fact that I wager so frequently on Hollywood Park, Santa Anita, and Del Mar, and as such have a much stronger feeling of familiarity with the west coast colts. All year long I’ve had to defend my rankings of Colonel John, Gayego, even El Gato Malo at times (who yes, I admit, I was too high on). Maybe I’m letting this familiarity cloud my judgement, but I’ve been impressed with Colonel John and Gayego each time they’ve stepped on the track. I just can’t discount them. Gayego is always involved in the outcome, and Colonel John has so much fight and determination in his heart that It’s almost impossible not to cheer for him. I’ve even confessed in earlier comments that I’ve been swayed a bit recently by a dream I had following a flight to Los Angeles last week, in which I saw Gayego surge to the front and take the race. Me? Superstitious? Say it ain’t so, Kev…..say it ain’t so! 
Pyro is another I just don’t think we can toss. He had a bit of a strange workout this week with ominous signs for those that look for such things. It was shrouded in fog and trainer Steve Asmussen was unable to judge just how fast he had actually worked. All this will likely add to the mystery of the colt that not long ago was thought to be the consensus favorite heading into Derby weekend. Has he really fallen that far? I for one am not even considering his Blue Grass effort, which was dismal. There’s a laundry list of horses that for whatever reason didn’t fire at Keeneland this year – including Pyro, Proud Spell, Country Star, and Panty Raid (coincidentally, and invoking my juvenile sense of humor – is that not one of the best names for a horse you’ve ever heard?). My heart tells me that we’ve got to chalk it up to the surface. Am I concerned? Of course I am, but I think we must also remember that his runs in the Louisiana Derby and Risen Star were only outdone (and even that is a matter of opinion) by Big Brown in the Florida Derby. Might we really get a colt with such credentials as the third of fourth betting option in the Derby? It’s possible. Maybe not likely, but possible, and obviously such value would be very attractive to players looking to make a splash.
So where does this leave us? Well, for the moment, if you’re going to make me commit to a single horse, I suppose it will be Big Brown. I know, I can already hear it. I love chalk. What can I say? I was simply blown away in the Florida Derby and remember telling myself “don’t be a fool and bet against this guy come Derby day!” That being said, my heart pick would Gayego, and my gut is telling me not to count out the Colonel or Pyro.
So many choices, so little time. With less than two weeks to go in the Derby, I’m curious who many of you are backing. One horse per person – let’s hear your Derby picks now, with the caveat that you may reserve the right to change them once the field and post positions are set. So who ya takin?
Ok Kevin your diatribe (or howevere you spell it) on picking is VERY well written! I agree with almost everything, and on advice giving(to friends), the whole “bit” haha.. Ok ok for betting favorite I pick Colonel John period. If I only get ONE pick per post, I will post again for my personal favorite. I still say it might be a good derby to sit out of betting and enjoy. Yes I posted that thing about the guy behind you in the window line as a zingger, pretty funny as to how many of us has fallen for that old trick huh? I used to fall for it all the time when I was at the track 3-4 days a week, when I lived near to Bay Meadows. Alas, they are closing down Bay Meadows after this year and I’m not quite sure when the last meeting will be. It wasn’t clear on their web site, fact is this meeting ends the week after the Derby, so I’ll probably head up there and then I can post the proper info on the closing of the beautiful old track. Jeeez and they just remodeled the clubhouse about 15 yrs ago, it looks so great 30′s style as original. What a shame, there’s more to it than meets the eye, I can answer most questions on it if anyone is interested. WARNING it may happen to your favorite track any day. BTW Kevin, I went to Santa Anita web site to look for BC tickets, but you can’t get any there, you have to go to the BC 2008 site and sign up your address and Email(advisable), and they will notify you when the tickets are released. I already did that, I’ll be going I hope(if the ticket brokers don’t ruin it), since I can drive there in about 6 hrs! Ok enough on taking up space for other things besides the Derdy picks. More later on my personal favorite horse pick (not betting fav for win).
that’s a shame about Bay Meadows. They must be owned by the same group that owns Hollywood Park – who likely faces a similar fate after this year. I keep hoping beyond hope it will stay open, but I know it won’t.
Colonel John’s a good pick. Did you see he got “horse of the meet” honors at Santa Anita? That Santa Anita Derby run of his was most impressive – and quite thrilling. He’s got that Tiznow heart that you just can’t leave out of any fight.
For BC tickets – I remember looking into it half-heartedly last year up at Monmouth (because of Curlin) and thought you had to enter some sort of lottery or something for tickets. It looked too complicated for me so I just passed. Of course, this year could very well be Curlin’s last race – so I probably should start looking into that.
Total Heart Pick:
Recapturetheglory… I can hear the announcer screaming his name as he fends off the closers and takes it to the wire.
We have seen two lightly raced green monsters in two years……….
I was shocked that Curlin did not win last year…On replay-They showed Curlin
and Street Sense toward the backstrecth-Where then Curlin raced forward and
Street Sense went to the rail…Well….Curlin ended up slowing down twice after
that….And of course we know what happened—–Racing luck———
And now we have Big Brown-Who appears to be another monster….Can’t
wait to see what happens….I know one thing—-The speed beyers are down
a lot on this group of 3-year olds.But we could still see 3-4 good ones….
@Sam – I know a few folks that would like to see Recapturetheglory win as well. Nothing wrong with taking a flyer on a “heart pick” in such a big race – I just wouldn’t plop a small fortune down or anything. My question about ‘glory is: “does he need the lead?” I’m not sure he does, but he certainly could be a factor if he goes after Big Brown.
@Gregg – couldn’t have said it better myself. Indeed, the Beyers are down overall – which is why I’d like to see the fillies enter in and mix it up with the boys this year – but your right….we could still see 3-4 good ones.
I’ve been thinking for a while now that while the overall crop isn’t as good as last year (I think we got spoiled a bit last year), whether they aren’t more closely competitive with each other from top to bottom. Last year Street Sense, Hard Spun, Curlin, and eventually Rags just seemed head and shoulders above the rest. Any Given Saturday blossomed after the triple crown and so did Tiago to give a few more really good ones. I wonder if we’ll get similar looking trifectas in all 3 races this year like we did last year, or if they may be close enough to each other that things get shaken up a few times? The way favorites have gone down repeatedly in the prep races makes me think we just might get some longshots.
For the moment, I still think the top 4 are a step ahead of the rest (Big Brown, Pyro, Colonel John, and Gayego).
No need to try to figure the pace, just assume it will be fast. A horse like Recapturetheglory looks like he absolutely needs the lead. They’re just gonna pray that they’re allowed to take the lead in a fairly slow pace. Big Brown is so much faster and could take the lead easily, but I doubt they want to risk getting in a speed duel and may very well let a horse like Recapturetheglory get the lead figuring they’ll just pass him on the turn. There are a few more horses in this race that look like they need the lead to have any chance to win this. If what I say is correct, Big Brown will be stalking a fast pace and have to pass horse(s) to win. If I’m wrong, he’ll be the one setting a fast pace. Either scenario doesn’t look good for Big Brown as far as I’m concerned.
I still like Gayego and I think he’ll be comfortable laying off the pace. It looked to me like Mike Smith was urging him on the backstretch to stay in contact with Tres Borrachos in the Arkansas Derby. This is in stark contrast to a horse like Hard Spun who would pull his jockey to the front if held off the pace. I doubt Mike Smith will ask Gayego for anything before the far turn and he should settle five or six lengths off the lead provided he gets a decent post position and isn’t forced to rush early.
You know who would have had a great shot to win this race? Kentucky Bear.
Showers are forecast in Louisville Friday for the Oaks, and Saturday for the Derby. That adds yet another twist to the handicapping fun.
I disagree on this being a 4 horse race. I see some longshots with chances such as Behindatthebar who could be the Pyro. He definitely has the running style to win a fast paced Derby.
Hey Kevin, want to hang out at Pimlico on Derby day?
You heard it here, from The Great One, a week before the race, and a fan of BB.
He’s not as fast as they think. He won’t win.
The Great One has spoken.
Visionaire says let it rain!
Jerry – I’ll have to see how the family duties line up – but I just might take you up on that offer. I know my wife agrees with you that it’s not a 4 horse race. She’s been arguing with me that she believes Z Fortune is going to prevail – thinks he would’ve won against Gayego if not for the extreme outside post position.
The Great One – love the name. You may well be right. I’d like to see him work over Churchill before annointing him the pick. I know his connections think he turned in a marvelous workout before shipping and they think he’s ready to go – but trainers always think that about their colts.
Maximus – kind of parrotting both you and Jerry’s sentiments. Weather is indeed another factor that may well play a role. I’m not buying the forecast predictions though until we get much closer. When was the last time we saw a weatherman get something right this far out? LOL
Good thoughts/comments from all of you. I’m still beating my head against the wall with this one.
For me it’s too early to pick a horse. Need to see post positions, final works at CD (especially Big Brown) and of course, the weather forecast.
That being said, I do like 3 of your 4 (and agree with your wife tossing Gayego for Z Fortune..haha..sorry)…and ZF just might be my pick come late next week.
You will have to buck history with Big Brown (no 2YO races), Colonel John (no significant Beyers) and Pyro (poor final prep), but SS bucked history last year so who knows. I just finished Dean Keppler’s new book on betting on the Derby and it has a lot of fantastic facts to consider it was worth the read.
Regarding BC Tix: Last year, I picked up two right at the Classic starting line first row on StubHub and there were plenty of tix available at the gate (maybe cuz of the weather), but my seats had the perfect view of Curlin making his move in the upper stretch…simply awesome.
Great post!
I’ve always figured 48: would be the optimal pace for a horse to run in the Derby. I saw a link to some past derby charts on drf.com and decide to calculate the pace the winner ran at the half mile mark using Andrew Beyer’s calculation of one second being equal to about 6 lengths. Here’s what I found…
47: Smarty Jones
46:4 Funny Cide
47:2 Monarchos
47: War Emblem (led)
47:3 Giacomo
46:4 Barbaro
49:3 Street Sense
46:4 Winning Colors (filly; led)
47:1 Go For Gin (slop: led)
49: Secretariat (set track record)
Seems like 47: might be the sweet spot. That’s much faster than I expected (now I really like Gayego!) Sorry Big Brown, no 46 flat. There were 49′s but you had a miracle rail trip by Street Sense, and Secretariat who could have given the field a sixteenth of a mile head start and still won. If anyone could add to this list or let me know where I can get all the charts, I would appreciate it so much!
Big Brown is unbeaten with 2 preps this year and raced well as a 2yo. Can a horse win off 3 starts? We’ll see, but picking against the fastest horse on the lead is more risky IMO. It’s sort-of like trying to pick against Samba Rooster in the Lexington…which one? Big Brown might flame-out late or make like Barbaro. I will put my 2-dollar win/place on the chalk and have fun watching.
You could make the argument that Hard Spun could have won the Derby running a 46:1 pace had Street Sense not been in the race, and there are no Street Senses in this race to catch Big Brown. I on the other hand can’t bet a 2-1 favorite in a 20 horse field while praying he can hold on after going 46:1.
“Seems like 47: might be the sweet spot. That’s much faster than I expected (now I really like Gayego!)”
I put up a page for a 10F dirt model (link above) which should compare well to the average of the 4F times from your list:
The Ark Dby ran fast early, even to the mile, slower late.
Excellent work both Don and Jerry – very insightful!
I’m thinking it will be hard to swallow a 2-1 in a 20 horse field as well. I eat a lot of chalk over the year, but Derby day you’ve got to try and beat the favorite, right? On the other hand, in the shorter Preakness field, you’d probably be lucky to get 2-1 on Big Brown if that race were coming up next, so one might argue that you get better value on the favorite in such a large field (if you can call 2-1 value – it’s a strech, I know).
I’ll use him on top in my tri tickets, but my win bets will likely be on Gayego and Z Fortune (Amy’s pick).
I don’t know how you came up with those figures Don, but thanks for some concrete calculations. 47: might work out better in the real world because of less traffic being encountered when going a bit faster.
I noticed the fast early – slower late Arkansas Derby. If he goes a tick or two slower early at the faster Churchill track, he should have plenty left at the end. I really like Gayego now because I think he can win stalking the pacesetters, like he did in Kevin’s premonition.
Great read! I found this site from googling one Saturday afternoon looking for some “picks”. I love reading your insight and not hearing you proclaiming I’m the most infamous handicapper ever, next year I’ll be charging you $19.95 to view my mind. Needless to say, this website is in my favorites. I remember watching the Florida derby from the once established Rockingham Park and the same thought entered my head as your’s….Big Brown, that’s going to be the KD winner….I didn’t even realized I had the trifecta…just remember telling myself, that is by far the most incredible animal I have seen run this year. I also liked what I saw from Colonel John, watching it from my living room, no money in the race, looking for the two fav’s…no where to be seen…then bam!! Colonel John in amazing fashion to win. I’m not an expert, I’ve probably help build many bleacher seats and donate school books for the youth. I have one bet this year $1 tri-key…BB -All-All…I’ll make this bet Friday night so I won’t chase odds…Thanks for the free site. Goodluck on D-day.
Thanks for the kind words, Dave! You’re exactly the kind of person I made this site for. My whole goal was to bring horse racing fans together and to help generate interest among people that might become new fans. Glad to hear you’re enjoying the posts. That really means a lot to me.
Be careful with BB/All/All….that’s a lot of horses to use underneath. I think you can toss Anak Nakal at least. Probably Z Humor as well. Everyone after that you could probably make a case for. Just my thoughts. Of couse, having said that, you know what will happen now – it will be Big Brown over Anak Nakal over Z Humor – and everyone will be cursing my name.
Looking forward to hearing more from you.
Hope you are all enjoying this beautiful Saturday – at least here on the East Coast. I’ve already cut the grass, put in some flower beds – looks like it might pour here soon.
“I don’t know how you came up with those figures Don”
It’s a standard 2nd call and final time model which comes from historical North American track records including those before 1962. It fits perfectly at CD. The 4F time can be adjusted downward based on the typical middle fraction time. The 24.0 middle does seem a little fast. Maybe 24.2 is more realistic which would make the 4F time about 47.2 which is about the average for the list of 4F times. Last year the surface speed for the Derby was perfectly in line with the historical norm.
In a certain sense I have to root for Gayego because he seems to have inherited his sires class and speed. The Damascus sireline has never gotten a classic winner, and there have been high profile flame-outs such as Mister Frisky and Private Terms, both unbeaten Derby favorites and Afternoon Deelites a Hol Fty winner. Big Brown might have the same problem.
Z Fortune is a logical choice. He’s not well bred but his Ark Dby was good enough to qualify and Albarado rode him perfectly.
Pyro has consistantly run good final fractions on dry land so an Asmussen exacta is a possibility.
The weather report is now for scattered storms Friday and fair skies Saturday for the Derby. I know it’s a long way out but they are good at predicting approximately when a front is supposed to roll through and it’s good to hear that they think it will be out of the area by Saturday.
I think Cowboy Cal will be sent to the lead in the Derby, particularly if he draws to the inside of Big Brown. He has the most speed of Big Brown’s competitors, but perhaps most importantly, Pletcher also trains the closers Monba and Behindatthebar. What do you think, Kevin?
Gayego worked nicely, going 5f in 1:00 3/5 in the mud at Churchill. Kentucky Bear did the same in a quick 59: 2/5. I’m so sad he won’t make the Derby due to lack of graded stakes earnings. He may have gone off at 28-1.
Richard Dutrow Jr. said of his colt, Big Brown, “I know there’s no one going into this race as good as he is right now. If he breaks clean, it’s a mismatch to me on paper.” That’s some major confidence! Maybe I’m crazy to be betting against him.