The field is set. The post positions have been drawn. Even the morning line odds have been established for the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby. All that’s left to do now is pick a winner, lay the bets, and wait for the gates to open.
I’m not going to officially make a pick here now – as I’ve still got several days to mull things over. I think most of you are already familiar with the horses I think most highly of. I’ll do one final ranking of the contenders on Friday along with my picks. For now, let’s take a look at the field.
- Cool Coal Man (20/1)
- Tale of Ekati (15/1)
- Anak Nakal (30/1)
- Court Vision (20/1)
- Eight Belles (20/1)
- Z Fortune (15/1)
- Big Truck (50/1)
- Visionaire (20/1)
- Pyro (6/1)
- Colonel John (4/1)
- Z Humor (30/1)
- Smooth Air (20/1)
- Bob Black Jack (20/1)
- Monba (15/1)
- Adriano (30/1)
- Denis of Cork (20/1)
- Cowboy Cal (20/1)
- Recapturetheglory (20/1)
- Gayego (15/1)
- Big Brown (3/1*)
First things first. The likely favorite, Big Brown, has drawn the extreme outside post position of #20. No horse has ever won the Derby from the 20 hole, so he’ll have to make history if he is to prevail. I like Big Brown a lot and think he’s a worthy favorite, but will the 20 hole be too much to overcome?
All of the speed in the race (Big Brown, Recapturetheglory, Cowboy Cal, even Gayego to a certain extent) appears to be to the outside. Not only that, but they are all closely bunched together. Bob Black Jack is breaking from the 13 hole – not too far away. Might this lead to a bit hotter of a pace than many have been expecting?
Looking over the odds, it appears that Gayego and Eight Belles got a bit of the Rodney Dangerfield “no respect” treatment. Gayego is at 15/1, while the filly Eight Belles is listed at 20/1. Personally, I’ll take those odds all day long on those horses.
Pyro is at 6/1, despite numerous impressive dirt tries, while Colonel John, who has yet to race over the surface, is at lower odds of 4/1. Z Fortune, Monba, and Tale of Ekati join Gayego as not having received a shred of respect at 15/1.
I’m just going to come out and say this now. I’m not a fan of Big Brown being right next to the likely speed contenders in the 20 hole. Picking against him in the Florida Derby when he was in the 12 hole turned out to be a bad play by me a month ago. I know I’m possibly guilty of making the same mistake, but I’m not thinking that I’ll accept the favorite at such a short price (although to be honest, 3/1 really isn’t that bad for a colt with the talent of Big Brown) breaking from such an extreme outside position in the Derby. There looks to be value elsewhere.
I like the middle-of-the field post positions for Visionaire (8), Pyro (9), and Colonel John (10) especially. I think these horses got really good draws that can set them up for nice runs on Saturday. I’m not going to back any of them for the win purely based on post position though and am only noting that this will factor into the equation at some level. The middle of the pack just looks like the sweet spot, doesn’t it?
We’ve got a bevy of seasoned and well established readers that visit here often, and I’d like to hear your opinions on the post positions and odds. Who do you guys see as having a beneficial post? What do you make of Big Brown and the speed breaking from the outside? Does anyone’s odds make you giddy at the prospect of a big payout?
Wow, Gayego’s got MAJOR problems there in the 19 hole. He’ll have to worry more about going wide than just settling into a good position. I expect him to be at least three wide and as far back as maybe tenth by the first turn. He has the speed to stalk, but in trying to get over I think he’s going to be forced to settle behind horses. I don’t think he wants to try to outrun the others to the turn. Big Brown can beat most the horses to the turn and should be able to set up in a nice stalking position 2 or 3 wide. Only problem like you said Kevin, is the pace should be hot with the speed horses having to make sure they clear the rest of the field so they can get to the rail for the turn. I think Bob Black Jack is the speed of the speed and will set the fast pace.
I’m afraid I’m going to have to give up on Gayego after that draw.
Yup, I’m jumping off Gayego and Big Brown and focusing on Pyro, Colonel John, and Eight Belles. Monba and Z Fortune rate as longshots I might take a cheap flyer on. Monba quietly got a great post position.
Guys,
You have to get off the popular sentiment. There is always a logical reason that forces the weak hands into submission and influenes incorrect decisions at precisely the wrong time.
we all know you never cancel a ticket under any circumstance and if Gayego wasn’t the bene of smart money battaglia would have made he, BB and Recap huge odds. the post positions won’t hurt the 3 faster horses. Bob’s Black Jack spits it up after a mile and ive seen him do so firsthand. gayego only gets better and he will easily be #2 or 3 at the first turn. he can chase th etwo rabbits and stay in the 2 hole. NO ONE is faster. He won his maiden running 1 1/8 miles entirely on the outside of the track in 1;09. you HAD to be there. He happens to have been schooled away from the rail and this is no big deal. I’ve seen this horse saddled and he is a gift from upstairs. ( between us we’re going ot get onehelluva price on the preakness if this race doesnt work for him ). I think Recapture might be in the exotics but I don’t like Big B @ all. Good Luck All.
Funny you should mention the Preakness, Paul. When I was talking this over with the wife before posting, I actually said he’d probably win in the Preakness (either him or Big Brown, if they are indeed the top 2 as I had them ranked).
The Preakness just plays much fairer. I feel safer taking Pyro and the Colonel from mid-post when I know they can come through traffic.
I still love Gayego. Actually noticed an hour or so ago that one of my first blog posts here was when Colonel John ran in the real quiet and Gayego made his debut in a maiden special weight. I picked ‘em both (though in truth, Gayego was my 3rd choice with the note “take a look at him in the post parade”….. I was clueing in on Lobo’s stats at the time, but he became my pick in the post parade).
Plus, since I did dream about him, I’ll have some dough on him in the Derby for sure….just not as much as I was originally planning on playing.
I’m quite comfortable jumping ship. Popular sentiment is on BB so I’ll get good odds on whatever closer I happen to chose. The Derby isn’t about who the best horse is, it’s about who’s in the right place at the right time… and Gayego is starting out in the wrong place. Didn’t Skip Away draw wide the entire triple crown? Couldn’t win a single leg, but managed to beat Cigar later in the year. I think pp matters quite a bit.
Big Brown is going to win the derby if he gets a good start.
I read it here:
http://msn.foxsports.com/horseracing/story/8089488?MSNHPHCP>1=39002
I love Z Fortune, and Pyro!! Kevin, you will have to box that for me!!
I’m alway biased to the California horse I watch daily, and was set to bet Colonel John pretty heavily. I had dismissed Big Brown as inexperienced and when he drew the 20 hole I was thrilled. Then I heard Rick Dutrow talking and he sounds even more confident than he did in 2005 when he bet $160,000 on St. Liam in Breeders Cup Classic. I loved it then since I really liked St. Liam. It’s ruining my Derby week now though. I would have used him a little, but I’m afraid to bet against him now.
The speed Big Brown Showed in the Floriday Derby can mitigate the problems of the 20 spot pretty easily. I still figure him to be outside of Bob Black Jack, and Cowboy Cal, but if he gets to the turn only 3 wide he could be gone. He posted quick fractions all the way around with Kent D. sitting chilly for no particular reason, and then went clear in the stretch.
Horse racing is long overdue for a great horse. Barbaro would have fit the bill nicely if it weren’t for horrible luck. When we finally do get a great horse, I would just hope his name wouldn’t be Big Brown.
I’m hoping I can talk myself out of betting the favorite. I was in love with Colonel John, Pyro, and Court Vision. maybe I can get back to that before Saturday.
Not that many speed horses—-3 or 4 at most….Mostly on the outside
will meet at end of first turn……We are looking at a very special horse in Big Brown with an amazing cruising speed—-And the world will see that
on display on Sat…..Will take the lead near the far turn on a moderate to
fast pace…BB Wins…………A new Denis of Cork and the fillie Eight Belles
will be in great positon in strech…….The pace i think will dull the closers….
GOOD LUCK
Only 8 starts from the 20 hole since 1970 (so that stat is somewhat deceiving) with only one horse hitting the board (to show). I think Dutrow chose the outside spot to avoid traffic and he is ok with it…i’m not going to throw BB out just yet. Will be using BB and the Colonel on top of my tris and BB, Colonel, ZF and Pyro on top of an exacta play…just trying to figure out what to play under. The pace scenario you mention is definitely possible, and BBJ should be pretty clean being at the end of the first gate (with some space before the 14 hole), I expect him to be out front early…if the race falls apart…maybe Visionaire or CV (with GG on board) could steal it…
Thanks for sharing your opinions guys. Lots of interesting stuff to digest. What’s fascinating is that in just a few weeks we’ll have separated so many of the contenders from the pretenders. The thing I love most about Derby week is the uncertainty and the fact that every horse seemingly has a case you can make. Once we get to Preakness and Belmont week, they tend to have sorted themselves out a bit.
I can’t freakin’ wait for Saturday. It feels like these last few days are taking forever to pass!
So I’m feeling like my picks are getting a bit too chalky now. I suppose that’s typical in the grand scheme of things…
Right now I like Pyro or Colonel John combined for win and place, and maybe 6 others to finish in the money, most likely Court Vision. I want to bet a bunch of straight tickets on the long shots as well, but I’m doubting my potential for a big score in the Derby.
Does anyone realize Go’s owners have turned down 10 million? Mike has promised the distance is no problem and you get huge odds for the fastest horse in the race. looking at this race again i see colonel john without a 100 beyer, pyro ran slow all year again no 100, BB with just 3 lifetime starts and a long layoff ( sorry ), zhumor nothing, z fortune one decent race but he backed up in the Ark ( throwout ), adriano looks like a nice allowance horse, Recap one race on a lightning fast track and cherokee run??? ( suspect ), cool coal you bet horses not jockeys and no 100s, no 100s for the cowboy. under the circumstances i will take that grand credit @ twinspires and send it in baby.
I’ve decided to bet Eight Belles to win.
She should settle comfortably in mid pack off of the hot pace, and run down the tiring leaders on the far turn. I’m impressed by her race times, the way she has dominated her competition, and her turn of foot. She’s a horse that can possibly run a lot faster than she has had to.
Hello there! I made my final analysis tonight on the Derby. If it rains though, anyone can win this race. I hope it does not. I don’t be any longer anyway so I can just enjoy the races without getting a heart attack now ha.
OK(my browser didn’t up date-so hope I got the same name) time for the Jug Bands to get ready to play at the Derby, just like they used to way back when! Louisville was the birthplace, more or less of Jug Band music. There were always bands at the Derby and parties. Now there’s not, I don’t think. Louisville did reconstitute a Jug Band Jubilee though, I forget the dates for this year. As for the horses. Yes the draw was good for me, with Colonel John and Pyro being my picks for a long time. HOWEVER, haha, here’s my analysis: Yes Traffic, traffic, traffic rules the day with 20 entries. With all that speed on the far outside, there WILL be horses pinched back from the initial “calvary charge” , just hope that doesn’t happed to YOUR horse I guess! I think that Monba did get good slot (14 is my lucky number also!), so he’s my long (mid) shot. The 6 7 and 8 horses Z Fortue, Big Truck and Visionaire would make a good 3 horses to box with “your” favorite for sure. Traffic on the far turn should sort it out, then the “calvary charge” down the stretch, and you KNOW who the stretch runners are. That’s IT until Friday night/Sat mornings, last chance to GRUMBLE. It’s a VERY competitive Derby what with Big Brown relegated to the #20 hole and Col. John and Pyro in the middle, it seems to equalize the favorites (thats one way of looking at it?) Maybe that was the Derby’s way of making this a handicap race?
Great stuff guys!
@Sam – I’ll probably do a bunch of straight bets as well. Those 20/1 odds and such just look too juicy to pass up. I can’t resist!
@Paul – he was my first choice (Gayego). I’ll know doubt have something on him. Maybe $20 or so.
@Mike – Always enjoy your pics, Mike. For the life of me I don’t know how you keep up with so many blogs. I can barely keep up with this one alone!
Thanks for sharing.
@roblejeune – good to see you too, buddy! See what you’ve done – your “cavalry charge” reference has me harkening back to Shakespeare’s Henry V (I’m fond of quoting “Hank”):
“Then let the trumpet sound. The tucket sonance and the note to mount; for our approach shall so much dare the field, that all of England shall cower in fear!!!!!” Dang, I should’ve used that in my post today!
Gregg called this race like a song…. who are you? Do you have a website? I’d love to read it!
Driscoll…
I would like to read more, can you provide a link to some of your greatest work?…