THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

It’s been a while since I posted some handicapping picks, as I”ve been so caught up in keeping up with the Triple Crown races.  Today is Mother’s Day, and what better way to show mom how much you care than by winning some sweet cash at Hollywood Park?  I’m kidding of course, but it is a gorgeous day to play, and the card looks very competitive.  We’ve got 9 races in total. I’m only covering the early and late pick 4 sequences (no offense, race 5), and will have my theoretical tickets for each as they look now posted within the selections.  If you are playing, don’t forget to take into account late scratches and post parade impressions - which can totally alter the direction you are leaning as a bettor. 

Race 1: 

• #8 Applaud Dubai (5/2*)
• #3 Song of Illinois (8/1)
• #1 Almacita (3/1)

The first race is a $16k claimer for 3 year-old fillies going 6 1/2 furlongs over the main track.  I like the favorite #8 Applaud Dubai to kick off the early pick 4 in good form.  I know she’s got the outside post to contend with, but I love playing last-out-winners at these lower claiming levels.  Add a slight class drop and a slow break in her last trip we should be able to cash in early on a single in the early Pick 4.  Underneath I like #6 Song of Illinois at 8/1.  If you toss that last turf race she could be right there.  She’s also dropping in class and into more favorable conditions.  Nakatani sweetens the deal further as the jockey.  #1 Almacita drops slightly after being closer last out.  She could be moving best of the pack late, and trainer Mike Mitchell is due for a score.

Race 2:

• #8 Artistryandrythm (6/1)
• #6 Princess Arjumand (3/1)
• #9 Hint of Lavender (12/1)
• #7 Dice Affair (15/1)

The 2nd race is a $40k Maiden Claimer for fillies 3 years-old and upward going 6 1/2 furlongs over the main track.  This one looks wide open to me and I went a bit deep here covering 4 horses, none of which is the favorite.  I know….shocking coming from a chalk eater such as myself.  #8 Artistryandrhythm looks best to me.  You get the best Beyer’s of the field, and offspring of Officer do very well early on.  She’s also dropping slightly in class and can improve from a slow-start last time out.  I see plenty of reasons to anticipate improvement, and there aren’t any monsters here.  #6 Princess Arjumand should enjoy both the cut back to 6 1/2 furlongs and the drop in class from the Maiden Special Weight rankings.  #9 Hint of Lavender could end up being the speed of the speed in an otherwise speedless sprint. #7 Dice Affair is a contender for me because I can’t ignore the combo of Vladimir Cerin and Joe Talamo - who are 38% so far for the meet together. 

Race 3:

• #4 Miss Singhsix (3/1)
• #3 Ginger Pop (6/1)
• #1 Fire n’ Brimstone (2/1*)

The third race is an $80k Optional Claimer (N1X) for fillies going 1 mile over the turf course.  #4 Miss Singhsix gets the nod due to her impressive pedigree.  Her sire won the Grade 1 Japan Cup and Canadian International, and placed in the Breeder’s Cup Turf, and Grand Prix de Paris.  It’s also worth noting that Alex Solis could have chosen to ride #3 Ginger Pop, but instead stays aboard Singhsix.  Ginger Pop comes off a close maiden score at the special weight level, but does look to me to be a very good filly.  I’d prefer another sprint prep heading into this route try, but if she’s as good as I think she is she’ll still be a contender.  #1 Fire n’ Brimstone looks like a vulnerable favorite to me.  I was close between this one and #2 Harmony Creator.  In the end I went with ‘Brimstone as the 3rd choice because she seems to enjoy the distance of today’s race better. 

Race 4:

• #4 Tizmet (6/1)
• #1 Full In (6/1)
• #7 Scrummage (4/1)
• #9 The Supply Program (3/1*)

The fourth race, a $16k Claimer for four year-olds and upward going 1 1/16 miles over the main track, is the final leg of the early Pick 4 sequence.   Yet again, I’m not sold on the favorite.  #4 Tizmet looks quite useful here to me.  Doug O’Niell is taking the blinkers off, which typically isn’t as strong a betting angle as putting the blinkers on, but with O’Niell (20% in such situations), you have to take notice.  I like that Tizmet is switching back to the main track after a less than impressive turf route, and is dropping in class from the Allowance ranks.  He should get the pace setup in front of him that he needs to score.  #1 Full In is one I’m luke warm about.  I like his running style here against the probable pace, but I don’t like that red-flag class drop from $50k to $16k.  #7 Scrummage is hard to ignore with those gaudy Beyer figures, but could get torched if the pace is too hot.  Still, note that he did “fight back” in the stretch 2 races back.  Perhaps he can hang on here?  The favorite is #9 The Supply Program, who could be playable if he makes a good post parade impression. 

Early Pick 4:  8 with 6,7,8,9 with 1,3,4 with 1,4,7,9  ($48 Total)

(note: skipping Race #5 since it is not part of the pick 4 sequences)

Race 6:

• #5 Power Shift (5/2*)
• #2 Grits (8/1)
• #7 Forest Danz (4/1)

The late Pick 4 kicks off with race #6, a $25k Claimer for four year-olds and upward going 6 furlongs over the main track. #5 Power Shift looks awfully tough to beat here.  Jockey Rafael Bejarano and trainer Jeff Mullins team up on this 5 year-old gelding.  Mullins in particular is absolutely lethal fresh off the claim.  The May 5th workout of 5 furlongs in 59 and change shows me he’s fit and ready to run.  He hasn’t run his best over 6 furlongs, but I like the confident move forward.  #2 Grits is one that will have to live up to his name in the stretch.  Doug O’Neill is simply due and this guy ran well at the $50k level last summer. He should be ready to move forward with one start under his belt following a long layoff.  It’s encouraging to see O’Neill is moving him up in class.  I like the signs I”m seeing.  #7 Forest Danz is in sharp recent form for trainer John Sadler, who is also due to heat up a bit. 

Race 7:

• #5 Medzendeekron (2/1*)
• #2 Towzee (9/2)
• #7 World Asunder (10/1)

The 7th race is a $62k Optional Claimer (N2X) for three year-olds and upward going 6 furlongs over the turf.  #5 Medzendeekron looms as the favorite, but will have to switch back to turf today. It’s anyone’s guess if his recent form will hold.  I wouldn’t bet against it, but you could make a case to play against him.  Trainer Barry Abrams hasn’t made many wrong moves thus far this meet though (57% winner).  #2 Towzee looks like the top competitor to me.  He’s got strong recent turf form and Beyer figures.  He should be charging late and moving the best of the field in the stretch.  It’s nice to see Alex Solis hop aboard again.  #7 World Asunder could be the speed of the speed, but this is turf racing and such a novelty usually doesn’t transfer to the winner’s circle as well as it does on dirt and/or synthetics. There’s also other speed here in this race (Luis’s Especial and Faulkwood Shores, specifically) which would seem to hinder his chances.

Race 8:

• #5 Lethal Heat (9/5*)
• #2 Magical Victory (12/1)
• #1 Sweet Hope (8/1)

The 8th race is the 46th running of the Grade 3 Railbird Stakes, a 7 furlong event for three year-old fillies on the main track.  #5 Lethal Heat is a perfect 3 for 3, including a G3 Stakes win in the Santa Paula at Santa Anita on 3/30/08.  Bejarano climbs aboard and he’s got some impressive morning moves to consider as well. Trainer Barry Abrams is a ridiculous 4 for 7 so far this meet.  Looks like a worthy favorite to me.  #2 Magical Victory is a real steal at 12/1.  I was considering him and #7 Homemade Brew, but sided with Magical Victory as the former has struggled beyond 6 furlongs.  Magical Victory is out of Grade 1 winner Miss Houdini, and looks like she’ll enjoy the extra furlong today.  Note her workout on 5/8/08 - 4 furlongs in 45 and change.  Sure appears she’s ready to run today, doesn’t it? #1 Sweet Hope is hard to leave out of the mix considering that 97 Beyer figure. She’s also shown that she can handle the tricky 7 furlong distance.  Still, this will be a move up from the claiming company she last faced at Bay Meadows. 

Race 9:

• #5 Dawn Star Rising (7/2)
• #6 Distant Victory (9/2)
• #7 Bee’s Cee (5/2*)

The final race on the card is a $48k Maiden Special Weight for state bred fillies and mares 3 years-old and upward going 6 furlongs over the main track.  #5 Dawn Star Rising gets top nod due primarily to the track record of her sire, Decarchy, who is 27% with debuters.  Trainer Vladimir Cerin and jockey Joe Talamo are a mind blowing 38% when together, and it looks like Cerin has given him the call on a live one again today ($140k purchase in October of 2006).  #5 Distant Victory also comes from a good win early sire (Distant View), and has those Mr. Prospector/Deputy Minister bloodlines that we’ve seen on display before.  Add in Victory Espinoza, who is winning at a 26% clip, and a strong workout on 4/16 (6 furlongs in 1:11.80), and I’m thinking this miss might show up running in her debut.  #7 Bee’s Cee is the favorite at 5/2.  The reason the horse is favored are the same reasons you can’t afford to leave her off your tickets.  While her sire, Cee’s Tizzy isn’t the best win early sire, due note the incredible morning drills, most notably 6 furlongs in 1:09.80 on May 3rd.  That ought to be fast enough to crush the competition if it translates to the track today.

Late Pick 4:   2,5,7 with 2,5 with 2,5 with 5,6,7 ($36 Total)

Best of luck to all, and Happy Mother’s Day.