I snapped the picture above today at Pimlico while taking in the racing action on Black Eyed Susan Day. The track started off absolutely saturated, and only progressed marginally to “muddy” conditions. When I left at the end of the day (a gruelling 13 races later), the track looked relatively similar. It’s going to take some serious sun to dry that surface up. Thankfully the forecasters are predicting upper 60’s to lower 70’s with wind, sun, and clouds. I have enough of the wet stuff for one day (and so has my lawn, for that matter!).
I’m probably the worst off-track handicapper in the world - especially when they move turf races to the dirt and half the field scratches. You’d think that would make my life a bit easier, but it seldom works out that way. Today was no different. I think I had 4 winning plays the entire day, and ended up down a whopping $200. Ouch!
You know that can only mean one thing - time to take some hair off the dog that bit ya!
You’ll forgive me if I don’t give in depth analysis here. It’s been a marathon handicapping the last two day’s cards and it’s already rapidly approaching midnight here on the East Coast. I’ll Just jump right out and say that my Preakness prediction in 1-2-3 order will be: Big Brown, over Kentucky Bear, over Hey Byrn. I’m going to use Gayego and Macho Again for sure, and am still kicking around Ichabad Crane. It’s going to depend on where I stand wallet wise. Nah, who am I kidding - it’s going to depend on how many $6 cans of beer (yes, you read that right, it’s not a misprint) I consume. The more inebriated, the more risky I tend to become.
I’ll run down the rest of the card and give my top 3 picks here as well. The late pick 4 looks especially formidable, even with the logical single on Big Brown. The early Pick 4 didn’t seem quite as bad. The tentative tickets I’m considering using are:
- Early PIck4 (races 4 through 7): 1,6,7,8 with6,7 with1,2,3 with 1 ($24)
- Late Pick 4 (races 9 through 12): 3, 8, 9 with 4, 6, 8 with 1, 3, 4, 7, 9 with 7 ($45)
Here’s my top 3 picks for each of the under card races:
Race 1:
- #1 Road Show (3/1)
- #7 Brush on By (9/2)
- #3 Poppy’s Punkin (10/1)
Race 2:
- #2 Media Play (6/1)
- #11 Virginia Minstrel (4/1)
- #3 Cryptogram (12/1)
Race 3:
- #3 Suave Jazz (9/5*)
- #7 Cognac Kisses (5/2)
- #4 Starforaday (4/1)
Race 4:
- #7 Red Gulch (9/2)
- #8 Off The Glass (3/1)
- #6 Wooded (10/1)
Race 5 - The Skipat Stakes
- #6 Akronism (8/5)
- #7 Drama Lady (3/1)
- #1A Hold That Prospect (4/1)
Race 6 -The Gallorette Handicap:
- #3 Roshani (2/1)
- #1 Valbenny (3/2)
- #2 Stormy West (3/1)
Race 7- The Barbaro Stakes:
- #1 Roman Emperor (8/5)
- #5 Da Tara (6/1)
- #3 Spurrier (5/2)
Race 9 -The Hirsch Jacobs (G3):
- #8 Force Freeze (2/1)
- #3 Lantana Mob (8/5)
- #9 Silver Edition (5/1)
Race 10 - The Dixie (G2):
- #6 Stay Close (5/1)
- #4 Shakis (5/2)
- #8 Salinja (6/1)
Race 11 - The Dupont Distaff Stakes (G2):
- #7 Buy the Barrell (6/1)
- #3 Peach Flambe (7/2)
- #4 Bear Now (5/1) (Note: Don’t sleep on #6 Lexi Star at 15/1 either - she’d be my 4th choice)
Race 12 - The Preakness Stakes (G1):
- #7 Big Brown (1/2)
- #8 Kentucky Bear (15/1)
- #13 Hey Byrn (20/1)
Best of luck to everyone. Here’s hoping we get a Preakness for the ages and that all the horses and riders return safely.
i have finally gotten over the derby, well not quite, but heres to a new triple crown winner! i think big brown can go all the way! enjoy the $6 beer…at that price it should come in gold plated cans!
Great insight again Kev … I see #7 Big Brown in a gallop here as well. Interesting that you use #8 Kentucky Bear in your exotics, considering, I think he is primed for a great effort here, but I think #4 Yankee Bravo will pick up the change for place, and #11 Giant Moon should get a nice trip over a soggy course. My tickets read as follows:
$50 exacta #7 Big Brown over #4 Yankee Bravo
$30 exacta #7 Big Brown over #11 Giant Moon
$20 exacta #7 Big Brown over #8 Kentucky Bear
$5 triple key #7 over #4, #8, #11
$2 super key #7 over #4, #8, #11
Total wager: $142
Click here for Preakness PPs
Good luck … see you IN THE PADDOCK
Sorry about link problem … try this one …
Click here for Preakness PPs
Worried a bit about today; Big Brown coming out of a middle gate on a track that looks like goo is a bit different than what we had in the Derby with his safe start outside etc. Kevin that pic is spectacular - well done!
Can I run some beer down for ya at the gate? hahaha… That is some serious change to put down on one can of beer! Bring a few cases to ya, then use your pockets and your lady’s purse
Keep up with more of your own pics - love that! Have a blast for us!
ps - use a few over Big Brown, just in case…
There may be wind today; keep note of it’s direction - if they will be facing it at the final stretch when they’re getting tired. That plus this track condition today can change the final outcome surely.
Here is where the wind is at and it’s speed in Baltimore at many points today:
http://www.usairnet.com/cgi-bin/launch/code.cgi?sta=KBWI&state=MD&Submit=Get+Forecast
Winds WSW at 10 to 20 mph during the day, Winds SW at 10 to 20 mph towards evening.
Gayego had a chance to hear the crowd and will basically race with 4 weeks rest. My concern is the frequent mileage
but there is always something, right? Ive bet small on this one, $1600 to win 500 place 400 to show ( no BB ). I have tris and supers basically wheeled with the 8 and 3 all over the place. Let’s hope for a safe race. Good luck all.
Kind of nice to get $600k for a workout huh?
Unbelieveable. Just un-freakin’ real. Big Brown blew ‘em away. I’m working on my after post (we literrally just got home) right now.
I thought nothing could top last year’s Preakness - but this was just unreal. What a tremendous day.
Plus, how’s about that handicapping above (the whole card)? Yeah, it was chalk heavy, but that’s pretty darned good if I do say so myself.
Race 1 - we lost - but my second choice scratched.
Race 2 - checkmark winner (Media Play)
Race 3- 3rd choice winner (Starforaday)
Race 4 - I blew this one - but thank god for Amy as she had the 9/2 winner - which led to a pick 4 score.
Race 5- checkmark winner (Akronism)
Race 6- checkmark winner (Roshani)
Race 7 - checkmark winner (Roman Emperor) - and you should’ve heard me screaming my guts out for him to bring home the early pick 4! (”get up there - show ‘em that Belmont blood in your veins!!”)
Race 8- I skipped - but we hit the tri
Race 9- second choice winner (Latana Mob)
Race 10- We lost to a 20-1 longshot. Knocked us out of the pick 4 and pick 6 late. Oh well….I said going into that race “we’re due for a stinker.”
Race 11- checkmark winner (Buy the Barrell)
Race 12 - checkmark winner (Big Brown - easiest call of the century)
even stuck around and hit the tri in race 13!
If I count right, that’s 11 races I handicapped the night before, we hit on 6 out of 11 with top choice selections, and 8 out of 11 overall. Throw in Amy’s saver in race 4 and we were 9 of 11. Let’s just say we’re on cloud nine.
Even managed to give out the Derby tri if you read between the lines:
“I’ll Just jump right out and say that my Preakness prediction in 1-2-3 order will be: Big Brown, over Kentucky Bear, over Hey Byrn. I’m going to use Gayego and Macho Again for sure, and am still kicking around Ichabad Crane.”
Big Brown over Macho Again over Ichabad Crane = $168.40 for the $1 trifecta.
God I love Preakness!!!!
Nice job on the Preakness Day card Kev … very impressive. I think we are going to see a Triple Crown winner next month … how exciting !!!
Here is my projected odds for June 7th
View Parliament’s Projected Belmont Odds
Keep the great handicapping going … take care
I was grinding it out at Arlington. The 7/1 exacta in the Preakness was my best bet of the day.
Parliament - figures it would happen (doing so well) the one big race I don’t do a podcast with you guys!
I still can’t believe I gave out Colonel John as a winner in the Derby. What was I thinking? Oh well, I did at least say Big Brown was going to have a shot at a triple crown. I think when asked if we had a horse that could do it I replied “you do, and his name is Big Brown.”
We’ll have to get together for the Belmont. I’m going to take my buddy George up on his offer in the previous post and head up to Belmont in 3 weeks. I’ll drive all night if I have to. Let me know when you guys are getting together.
Man, I’m really behind on my replies today. See what an all-day Preakness-fest can do to a blogger?
@fritz - I hear ya….it took me a little while as well. Preakness today was therapeutic. One of the things I love about being in the nicer sections is that many of the people who show up aren’t really into betting. They’ll lay a few $2 tickets and such, but they aren’t the obsessive gamblers that many of us seem to be at times. I got to meet several fascinating folks - including a vet, a lady who personally rescues forgotten racehorses, and a few people who ride horses. Great folks to chat with, and people that you could see were glowing in their love of horses.
@Parliament (from way above) - Man, I really thought KY Bear as well - he even looked magnificent in the post parade. He was calm, but alert. He carried himself like a G1 winner. Next to Big Brown, I thought he stood out the most. Even ran and put $20 to win on him at the last moment. Giant Moon, on the othre hand, took a giant crapt right in front of us when he came on the track. That was all I needed to see.
LMAO @ the $660k workout thing. I don’t think BB even worked up a sweat.
@Diss, I was thinking about you this weekend. I figured you were still doing that whole move thing. You never cease to amaze me with your depth of knowledge. I swear, sometims when you talk you sound like a seasoned 25 year veteran of horse racing. Wind definitely makes a difference. I don’t usually play Aqueduct that often, but I’ve heard the winds there in winter can really affect the splits/fractions. Wait a minute…are you sure you aren’t a famous jockey or something and just haven’t told us yet?
@Paul - Wow man, I’m in awe of your finances, for sure. Sorry about the $1600, but I think you had some good ones there with the 3 and the 8. Kentucky Bear sould’ve had a better run. I really expected that horse to finish in the money at least. Here’s what I think we all did with him (as many of us here in this discussion have all indicated we liked him). I think our support of KY Bear had less to do with KY Bear and more to do with how little confidence we have in any of the 3-year-olds beyond B.Brown. Because KY Bear can still become any type of horse, and he has what appeared to be a high ceiling for potential, he was worth moving ahead of others. Ichabad Crane was surprsingly tough to include for me. I almost left him off trying to keep it cheap, but then thought “c’mon, you’ve got a 1-5 on top. Go deep!”
Gayego was just a heart play. I think I’m probably done with that Honeymoon now though.
Macho Again I really owe mainly to Amanda from http://www.turfangels.com
She mentioned she liked him at the Alibi breakfast and it was the first time I really took him seriously. I had written off the Derby Trial as being a weak race. Turns out maybe Kodiak Kowboy should’ve been in some of the TC races.
@Sam - Ah, don’t worry. It was a chalk heavy day anyway. Think of it this way, you’ve just saved one of your best handicapping days (as we’ve all got good and bad days) for a time when better value exists.