It’s the start of the Memorial Day weekend! Amy and I will be headed to Pimlico tomorrow to take in a day of racing in the beautiful sunny weather expected for Baltimore. I just got home from work and started looking over tonight’s Hollywood Park card. We’ll be playing along tonight on TVG and I figured I’d take a shot and post some of my first impressions of each race.
Race 1:
- #6 Lupita’sluckyangel (5/2)
- #1 Stress Free (2/1*)
- #4 Happy Celyna (6/1)
We start off with a $16,000 claimer for fillies and mares 4-years-old and upward going 7 furlongs over the main track. I like the outside horse here in #6 Lupita’sluckyangel. She’s dropping in from the $35k level where she didn’t disgrace herself. She’s certainly got the Beyers to beat this field and the addition of blinkers could help despite trainer Oscar Garcia’s rather pedestrian 12% winning clip with such a move. Martin Garcia hops back on board and rode her well at the $32k level vs. state-bred foes 3 races back. #1 Stress Free is the morning line favorite at 2/1. It’s sometimes more encouraging to see a trainer like Bill Spawr move his horse forward off a mildly disappointing effort, as is the case with Stress Free coming off a defeat as the chalk at the $10k level. Rosario hops back on board and 7 furlongs is a good fit for her. #4 Happy Celyna could be the spoiler at 6/1. I like the idea of giving her a bit more ground today as the 6 furlong distance didn’t produce her best results the last few times out. The addition of blinkers seems to land trainer Jorge Peribaon on some sweet scores (17 % with a $5.23 ROI), and note that Delgadillo is surprisingly somewhat of a force when teamed up with him (26% over the last year). I think #6 Da Svedonya could get up for a minor award, but didn’t think the 8-year-old had any room to move forward here and claim victory.
Race 2:
- #7 Most Decorated (5/2*)
- #5 Famous Touch (4/1)
- #1 Smart Demand (9/2)
Our second race of the night is a $25k maiden claimer for 3-year-olds going 1 1/16 miles over the main track. I like the favorite here in #7 Most Decorated. He was second last time out at this level after encountering some trouble (“lacked room”) in his trip. Trainer Bruce Headley appears to be on fire, winning at a 38% clip so far this meet. I was hoping for a longshot to turn up in my picks underneath, but wound up liking #3 Famous Touch 2nd best. Like the DRF “closer look” comments point out – this one appears to have moved forward after getting to the Hollywood cushion. Any kind of similar move forward today would put this one right withthe leaders. I as between #1 Smart Demand and #6 Cadeaux du Mondefor my third pick. I sided with the #1 over the #6 because I don’t like to play horses that are 0 for 19 lifetime, but if he (#6 Cadeaux du Monde) shows up with his usual race he looks like a possible player in here. #1 Smart Demand got the nod from me because he still has room for improvement and trainer Rafael Becerra is rolling lately. Toss in a god jockey like Michael Smith and the fact that he’s encountered racing trouble in each of his two starts and I could see this guy surprising late if the race falls into his lap.
Race 3:
- #8 Helmsgold (4/1)
- #3 Stingoftruth (2/1*)
- #4 My Manhattan (7/2)
The third race is an $8k claimer for four-year-olds and upward going 1 1/16 miles over the main cushion track. This one looked fairly wide open to me. In addition to the three horses above, I thought #7 Totally Phat and #9 Mikey Bones each had a shot in here as well. I sided with #8 Helmsgold because I think she’ll appreciate the switch back to the cushion track. I think if you look at her cushion form she fits with this group very well and has a fair shot of prevailing. #3 Stingofthruth is dropping in from the $12,500 level and retains Joe Talamo. #4 My Manhattan should have a shot to set the pace and try to wire the field. She’s had some trouble hanging on to the wire lately, but this one could set up nicely for her.
Race 4:
- #5 Perfect Cast (2/1*)
- #4 Burnt ((3/1)
- #3 Just Like Heaven (20/1)
The fourth race is a $25k maiden claimer for fillies 3-years-old and upward going 6 furlongs over the cushion track. I took the favorite here in #5 Perfect Cast. She’s been involved in basically every race and has been knocking on the door. Now she ‘s claimed by Jerry Hollendorfer, who hits at 30% with 1st time runners off the claim. Looks pretty safe to me despite the 14 horse field. #4 Burnt has room to move forward dropping in from the $50k Special Weight class. Adding Rafael Bejarano can only help. #3 Just Like Heaven looks like a real steal at 20/1 if any bit of that Turfway Park form can hold. She’ll have to figure out how to finish a race, but she’s got speed and she’s on the rail, so you know you’ll get a quick thrill, if anything. As far as the rest of the field, I thought #1 Warren’s Kiss was interesting and will wait to see her in the post parade. I also thought #7 Magnificent Valor looked somewhat playable dropping in from $40k.
Race 5:
- #3 Awesome Empress (3/1)
- #1 Flamingo Princess (6/1)
- #4 Sherry’s High (2/1*)
The 5th race is a $51k state-bred Allowance NIX race for fillies and mares 3-years-old and upward going the tricky 7 1/2 furlong distance over the main track. This looks like a very competitive race. I took #6 Awesome Express as the top choice as he’s got the Beyers to defeat this field – at least on paper. If you toss that effort last time out he looks like he could be a handful here with the hood coming off. #1 Flamingo Princess will likely set the pace breaking from the 1 hole. Since we’re only going 7 furlongs here, I thought that gave her a shot. #4 Sherry’s High gets my nod as third choice over #2 Too Phar. It’s good to see Tyler Baze take back over as he’s ridden her to victory before. I’m not sure if she’s going to try and contest the pace or look to stalk and pounce. The latter would seem to be more favorable tonight.
Race 6:
- #6 Stag on the Run (3/1*)
- #7 Handsome Thomas (7/2)
- #11 Dr. J J (8/1)
The sixth race is a $32k maiden claimer for 3 year-olds and upward going 6 furlongs over the main track. #6 Stag on the Run came alive at Santa Anita in his last back in April. Jeff Mullins has been on fire recently and it’s not like Stag ran badly over the Hollywood cushion on 12/1/07. #7 Handsome Thomas simply has a tremendous amount of room to move forward. Note that he took a lot of money in his debut – which hints that he’s well bred (Vindication being pretty good in plays like this). He may need his second race, but then again it’s not like he’s facing winners here. #11 Dr. JJ would likely be my top choice if not drawn outside in the 11 hole. That knocks him down just a notch for me. Talamo will probably have this guy on the gas so that he can be a factor the entire race. I also like the cutback here from 1 1/16 miles to 6 furlongs.
Race 7:
- #2 Mr. Chairman (4/1)
- #4 South Coast (2/1*)
- #8 Brian the Bold (7/2)
The seventh race is $53k state-bred conditional Allowance (N1X) going 1 mile over the turf. I gave #2 Mr. Chairman the nod over the favorite here, but only slightly. I seem to be stalking jockey Rafael Bejarano tonight, so if he has a good one, you’ll know I’m happy. I was a fan of his first race after the most recent layoff, and unless he somehow regresses here today he should be poised to move forward slightly. Plus, Doug O’Neil is due to get rolling her at any moment, and I’d like to be on board when he does. #4 South Coast is worth of the favoritism here at 2/1 as he’ll be out in front looking to wire ‘em all the way. Talamo looks to have some quality mounts tonight and just have himself a fine evening. #8 Brian the Bold could pick things up if the race were to somehow fall apart. He’s probably looking at a minor award if South Coast gets loose on the lead, but this is horse racing and you never know – he certainly can compete with this group if things go his way.
Race 8:
- #8 Color of Deception (20/1)
- #7 Scotty Jones (5/2*)
- #2 Prince of Darkness (4/1)
We wind up the day with a $25k maiden claimer for 3 year-olds and upward going 1 1/16 miles over the main cushion track. I’m taking a gamble here and picking a 20/1 horse as my check-mark selection. #8 Color of Deception drops in from the maiden special-weight level ($49k) for his 4th career start. He’s sired by Distorted Humor (Forty Niner) and was an $800,000 purchase. He hasn’t beaten ANYONE yet in his career – which will likely cause the odds to be inflated – but who exactly is he facing here? He hasn’t taken any money at the windows, which doesn’t bode well, but he’s a half to Funny Cide and has had 3 less-than-great trips around the track (wide, rank, and off-slow to be exact). Yeah, I’ll take a stab at 20/1. #7 Scotty Jones has the Beyers to deserve favoritism, and this isn’t a tough field, but it’s hard to be excited about an 0 for 19 horse. #2 Prince of Darkness appears to have some upside. It’s hard to pass on Alex Solis and Jeff Mullins in tandem. I would’ve expected a bigger move forward last time out when dropped to this level, but he’s still lightly raced and could jump up a bit. It won’t take much to knock off this field.
Good luck to anyone playing along tonight.
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