Spirit One proved once again that you can’t underestimate controlling speed, even when it’s a longshot going against supposedly better horses at the Grade 1 level. In Saturday’s running of the Grade 1 Arlington Million, many handicappers (myself included) had expected the race to be all about foreign invader Archipenko or top U.S. turf male Einstein. In the end we should’ve followed the first rule of thoroughbred racing - never discount controlling speed.
In all fairness, many folks had made their selections assuming that another runner, the lightning quick Sudan who was last seen setting insanely fast opening splits in the Curlin/Red Rocks showdown in the Man O’ War at Belmont, to be the controlling speed. Less than 24 hours before the Million however, Sudan was reported as a late scratch.
This left Spirit One as the likely pace setter, and even though I saw that coming, I foolishly expected him to be running out of gas as the field reached the eigth pole. BIg mistake. Instead, Spirit One was full of run and was able to hold off challenges from favored Archipenko and a surprisingly closer to the pace than I expected Mount Nelson to win by 3/4 of a length.
Perhaps the most impressive aspect of Spirit One’s victory was that he managed to hold on despite setting early fractions o 24.66 and 48.67. While the race was happening, it appeared to me that Mount Nelson and Archipenko were harassing him enough by pressing the pace to make this a sure thing for them turning for home. Instead Spirit One found something deep down inside and was able to hold them off. Amazing.
I’ve got to take my hat off here a moment to handicapper Kat Kubik over at my buddy Ron Correll’s site, Trackside View. She had Spirit One picked 24 hours before the race. I read her picks, took that into consideration, and still went another way. Like I said - foolish. I shoulda/woulda/coulda known better. You see, Ron’s one of the guy’s whose opinion I trust the most, and I know he thinks the world of Kat as a handicapper. You’d think it would follow then that I’d pay better attention when she speaks. Well, there’s always next time I suppose.
Spirit One returned a solid $29.40 to supporters, finishing the 1 1/4 miles of the Arlington Million in 2:02.17. Archipenko and Mount Nelson rounded out the exacta and trifecta, respectively. The exacta returned $68.40 and the trifecta returned $264.20
My guess is we’ll see the top three runners from the Arlington Million renew their rivalry this October in the Breeder’s Cup.
Einstein was probably the most disappointing runner from a finishing position perspective, but it’s worth noting that he didn’t break well and found himself much farther back towards the rear than is typically his style. I’d look for a nice rebound effort from Einstein next time out, especially if he faces a little bit softer company. He’s still a player come time for the Breeder’s Cup.
Spirit One ran a nice race, lucky to have the lone speed in his favor however, Archipenko, was much the best even in losing. His rider did not and or could not position him properly. If Archipenko runs in the Breeders cup, look for him to run a huge race.
The connections of Spirit One were searching for firmer going because the horse can’t be easily rated on the lead. The Arl turf course became firm early in the card and faster later in the day and with the late scratch of Sudan the horse might stay the trip although Tizdejavu faded at even money.
Spirit One shows good form off layoffs just missing against Literato (Champion Stks winner) this time last year and close to this years best 10F horse Duke Of Marmalade (Prix Ganay winner). Archipenko drew the rail which I thought was a negative but not enough to get him beat…he wound up getting trapped. Einstein is a 6yo with so-so form and no wins at the distance. Mount Nelson scored a narrow win at 7-2 but his form is inconsistant. Stream Cat was a logical ITM contender but overbet…he ran poorly which suprised me. It turned out to be a fairly weak race.
Winning players understand that horse racing in France is a serious sport and horses that ship from there no matter their form have to be taken seriously.
Winchester gave the most impressive stateside performance by a 3yo this year with his Secretariat Stks win.
Happened across your spot on a link from Bob Ike’s blog. Interesting point about the controlling speed, an angle I’ve tussled with for years.
I’ve recently put that angle into a minor consideration on turf and synthetic tracks, factoring it in after my class analysis. I make note of his speed near the end. IMO, only traditional dirt courses require an earlier consideration of speed/pace in the decision-making process. SPIRIT ONE was my 3rd choice (behind MOUNT NELSON and EINSTEIN) ahead of ARCHIPENKO. I wanted to post my picks on the HORSEPLAYER PRO site but structuring my ticket took precedent. Here were my notes to myself on the winner:
(3) SPIRIT ONE (10-1) was an unlucky loser to MOUNT NELSON as a 2y.o. in a G.1. As I said before, this is the kind of runner who can relish the ship to new surroundings against a well-fancied runner who defeated him in the past. He was a good 4th at 5-1 vs. the likes of DUKE OF MARMALADE, SADDEX, and SAGEBURG in the G.1 Prix Ganay in April, arguably the best race any of these Million entrants has competed in. All of those runners came back to win their next starts. He’s been on or near the lead in his best efforts against the best turf horses in the world. If he acclimates better than MOUNT NELSON, this French bred and raced runner can be right there at the wire.
About “Archie”, I thought him distance-challenged, best up to 9f, but in hindsight he was best on this day considering his nightmare trip. Do you think that his connections may have agreed with me, wanting to save all the ground until very late? I wasn’t disappointed with the result as his defeat meant I cashed a bigger payoff than if the place/show horses had won.
Lastly, WINCHESTER appears to me to be the best horse for the BC Turf from the Million card but I cannot say that I saw the Turf winner on the day. These shippers were not the best foreign 12f horses. SILVERFOOT’s a game old timer, but when he finishes that close, I have to seriously question the quality of this race as a “true” G.1.
@Don - good stuff as always, Mr. Swanson. I usually give the Euro shippers an extra “point” in my handicapping on turf just because I respect them so much. Still, I ate chalk thre with Archipenko. Still feel he could’ve won if he had a better trip, but such is horse racing.
@Amateurcapper - very interesting. Love reading people’s detailed analysis. Feel free to stop on over here and let us know your picks before any “big race.”
I noted the Duke of Marmalade race on Spirit One’s PP’s, but for some reason I convinced myself there wasn’t enough there to back him for the win. Absolutely agree on SIlverfoot as well - I like him, but he wasn’t exactly coming into the race in solid form. That does make you question the overall strength of the race.