Saturday’s 33rd running of the Grade 1 Ruffian Handicap at Belmont Stakes is headlined by 2007 Juvenile Fillies Champion Indian Blessing. “Blessing”, as she’s affectionately referred to, is coming off back to back wins that begot impressive 110 Beyer speed figures. The 3-year-old daughter of Indian Charlie is also in possession of a career best speed figure at the 1 1/16 mile distance of the Ruffian that matches the best the rest of the field can offer (99). Despite all of this, like many others I’m going to play against her today.
The field for the Ruffian Handicap:
- #1 Little Belle (R. Maragh) 8/1
- #2 Rite Moment (E. Coa) 15/1
- #3 Copper State (S. Bridgmohan)10/1
- #4 Indian Blessing (J R. Velazquez) 8/5*
- #5 Spring Waltz (J.J. Castellano) 3/1
- #1A Stage Luck (C. Nakatani) 8/1
- #6 Tough Tiz’s Sis (E. Prado) 7/2
- #7 Boca Grande (C. Velasquez) 12/1
For starters, there won’t be any value in playing an 8/5 favorite. If you want to make any sort of splash you’ll have to look elsewhere. However, the most important factor in this decision is that I simply don’t believe 1 1/16 miles is the best Distance for Indian Blessing. Yes, she’s 3-2-1-0 lifetime at this distance. Yes, she’s got Beyers of 95 (twice) and 99 at this distance, which are likely good enough to be there on the wire against this field. I just can’t take 8/5 on a horse that I think may be vulnerable at this distance.
“Blessing’ has really perked up since getting the benefit of a cutback in distance. Back in March, she lost the FG Oaks to the amazing Proud Spell at today’s 1 1/16 mile distance. Trainer Bob Baffert promptly cut her back to the 1 mile distance next out in the Acorn, and she lost to the equally impressive Zaftig. Then, they once again cut her back further, this time to 6 furlongs in the Grade 1 Prioress in the mud at Belmont on July 5. She looked like a different horse at that distance, and even took on a new found stalking style to win by 5 1/4 lengths. She returned to win the Grade 1 Test, this time at 7 furlongs, by an amazing 7 lengths on August 2nd.
If this race were 6 or 7 furlongs, I’d probably accept her at 1/5. Being at 1 1/16 miles, I’m just not sure. Will she try to be on the lead again when facing the typically softer early fractions of a route race? Will she stalk and pounce as she has done in her recent sprints? My gut would tell me it’s the latter, but further complicating things is that there’s not an abundance of clear-cut early speed signed on here. In other words, she may well find herself on the lead, and in that case she could be tired late in the stretch. You’ve also got to think she’s primed to bounce back to earth a tad after the impressive 104, 110, 110 Beyer progression in her last 3 races.
So whom do I chose? It’s a tough decision. In the end I think we have 2 prime candidates. I’ll start with Tough Tiz’s Sis. I think it goes without saying that I’m a sucker for offspring of Tiznow. She gets a check-mark in that category. She also appears to be on the improve, and let’s not forget that she gave Zenyatta, a filly I think has a legitimate chance for Horse of the Year honors, a bit of a run for the money in the Vanity Handicap on July 5. That was the closest I’ve seen a horse get to Zenyatta in the stretch.
The one concern I have with Tough Tiz’s Sis is that her best running has been done on synthetics. That being said, she has posted a bullet workout of 6 furlongs in 1:11.80 since arriving at Saratoga. That’s pretty encouraging considering she isn’t known for firing bullets in the AM works. I’ll temper that enthusiasm a tad by saying “that was Saratoga, this is Belmont” though. In the end I’ll say that Tough Tiz’s Sis gives you the best morning line value at 7/2 of the horses I could see pulling the upset.
The other contender you’ve got to consider is Spring Waltz at 3/1. Trainer Bobby Frankel is moving this one up the class level and she’ll get her biggest test today. She was no match for Hystericalady last out, but has been freshened and cuts back from 1 1/4 miles last out. Note that she destroyed Optional Claimers by 13 lengths with a 106 Beyer at Gulfstream Park 3 races back at the 1 1/8 mile distance. Also interesting is that if you toss that Hystericalady race, she was on her way to 5 straight victories. It’s going to take a horse with that kind of talent to pull an upset over a classy filly like Indian Blessing.
Don’t get me wrong here - I love Indian Blessing and think she’s amazing. In fact, she’s classy enough that she’ll probably find a way to grind it out. I just can’t see myself risking any money for so small a return on investment. If I’m going to take risk, I might as well get some value for it, right? I’ll side with either Tough Tiz’s Sis or Spring Waltz depending on the impressions they make in the post parade. My gut tells me to take Tough Tiz’s Sis for right now.
Underneath you’ve got to use Indian Blessing. It’d be inconceivable to predict her finishing out of the money. She’s never been worse than 2nd in 9 lifetime tries. I’ll use Little Belle and Copper State on the bottom of the Trifecta. Little Belle just always seems to get minor awards when she knocks heads with the big girls, and Copper State was right there with Ginger Punch in the Go For Wand last out.
6/4,5/1,3,4,5 ($6)
Good luck to all and be sure to watch that post parade before wagering.
As the rains continue to come down, I’m starting to warm more and more to Indian Blessing. Weather was one factor I didn’t really touch on. Tough Tiz’s Sis had her worst race over the slop at Monmouth, while Indian Blessing is 2 for 2. Just something to keep in mind. I also appear to have overlooked the fact that despite being a 1 1/16 mile race, this is a one-turn route. That would seem to play into Indian Blessing’s Favor as well.
An ammended trifecta with Indian Blessing on top I’d consider playing is:
4/ 5,6/1,3,5,6 I may toss in Rite Moment at 15/1 (co-longshot of the field) in the slop as well.
Now Indian Blessing is scratched. According to the DRF, Baffert is thinking of sending her now to Presque Isle for the $400,000 Presque Isle Downs Master Stakes on Sept. 13. Cool!! Roadtrip, Kevin?
Not a bad decision what with the weather and the distance. Presque Isle Downs, huh? May have to break out the private jet for that one (I wish)!
Come on, you’re in Central PA. Erie is, what, three or four hours away? I’m going to shame you into going
I keep reading about that Vegas summit on other peeps’ blogs. Make sure that you tell them about my beer special strategy for attracting a “new generation” of racing fans.
Dude, I’m serious.
Hey- a new avatar for glenvargas! Sweet!
I hear ya bro - and man is it killing me that I’ve been ignoring the blog here a bit. I’m going to do a post tomorrow on (what else) Big Brown in the Monmouth - i’m just plugging away trying to finalize my part of the presentation.
I’m doing the “take back saturday” thing, and have a small hand in some other ideas. Dana confirmed we’ll have internet access in our hotel rooms so we may be able to do a bit of “live blogging” about how the conference is going.
Still not quite sure what’s kosher as far as what I can reveal or not. We’re pushing for standings, we know we need to focus our efforts on the best product available, and we know that there are bigger problems we won’t be able to “solve” just through a group of fans.
Regarding the beer idea - we’ve got an overall idea to sort of keep a finger on the pulse on what has worked and what hasn’t worked amongst the various promotions run at different tracks. Sort of the whole right hand has to know what the left is doing thing. Working cooperatively. What’s a best practice? What worked, what didn’t, and why? That sort of thing. We’ve mentioned cheap beer and obligatory hotdogs in some of our discussions.
All this beer talk makes me thirsty.
Yeah, it’s 6 a.m., and I’m already thinking about dipping into the sauce.
Hell, it’s Friday. Why not!