THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

We’ve already covered Curlin’s quest for all-time glory at Belmont Park on Saturday in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup - but let’s not forget about the other Grade 1 races in the Pick 4 sequence.  Starting in race 7 with the Flower Bowl Invitational, the sequence proceeds to include the Vosburgh, the Joe Hirsch Classic Invitational, and of course the Jockey Club Gold Cup.  Let’s take a closer look at each on a race by race basis.

Race 7: The Flower Bell Invitational - Grade 1 - 1 1/4 Miles (Inner Turf) - $600,000

1. Palmilla - Jonathan Sheppard (Edgar Prado) 8/1
2. Communique - George Arnold (Javier Castellano) 4/1
3. Dynaforce - Bill Mott (Alan Garcia) 7/2
4. Mauralakana - Christopher Clement (Kent Desormeaux) 1/1*
5. Jade Queen - Todd Pletcher (Rafael Bejarano) 15/1
6. Hostess - Harold Bond (Richard Maragh) 6/1

The 31st running of the Flower Bell features a 6 horse field going 1 1/4 miles over the inner turf track at Belmont Park. Mauralakana is the standout even money favorite on the morning line, and for good reason.  The 5-year-old Christopher Clement trainee has won 4 consecutive races, and has defeated most of today’s more serious rivals, including Hostess, Dynaforce, and Communique. 

The likely lone speed of the race is 15/1 longshot Jade Queen - whose career best Beyer figure (102) came at this distance back on 10/7/06 at Belmont.  Jade Queen has had trouble holding on for victories (she hasn’t won since August of 2006), but has managed to find the exacta in 2 of her last 6 tries, and the trifecta in 4 of her last 6.  I think you’ve got to use her then as lone speed at 15/1.

Dynaforce is probably the only real threat to Mauralakana in this one, although Hostess does own the last victory over Mauralakana.  I’ll play the favorite on top with Dynaforce and Jade Queen underneath for place. I’ll toss in Hostess for show to round out the ticket.

Selections: 4/3,5/3,5,6 (4)

Race 8: The Vosburgh - Grade 1 - 6 Furlongs - $400,000

1. Fabulous Strike - Todd Beattie (Ramon Dominguez) 5/2
2. J Be K - Steve Asmussen (Rafael Bejerano) 8/1
3. Lucky Island - Kiaran McLaughlin (Alan Garcia) 2/1*
4. First Defence - Robert Frankel (C. Hill) 4/1
5. Kodiak Kowboy - Larry Jones (Gabriel Saez) 10/1
6. Rockerfeller - Martin Wolfson (Eddie Castro) 6/1
7. Black Seventeen - Brian Koriner (Clinton Potts) 12/1

The 69th running of the Vosburgh features seven horses going 6 furlongs over the main dirt track.  Right off the bat you can tell there’s plenty of speed in here, both to the inside and the outside.  Fabulous Strike is a fine runner breaking from the rail - but he’s going to have to go full speed every step of the way to prevail here.  The son of Smart Strike will be hard pressed by the runner to his immediate outside, J Be K, and the runner on the extreme outside, Black Seventeen. 

This should set things up nicely for an off-the-pace type, and there are several lively challengers that fit that profile.  Lucky Island was undefeated in 4 races so far this year before stumbling at the break as the post time favorite in the Grade 1 Forego on August 30.  That stumble took him out of the race and set things up for another of today’s off-the-pace rivals in First Defence.  I still feel Lucky Island is the better of the two and would expect him to turn the tables on First Defence today.  Still, I think you’ve got to include First Defence on any multi race exotic wagers such as the Pick 4.  Likewise, I wouldn’t count out Rockerfeller either.  The 4-year-old son of Maria’s Mon hasn’t faced Grade1 competition before, but he classed up rather well only being beaten by 3 lengths to the great sprinter Benny the Bull two races back.  That hints at this horse having legitimate talent, and he’ll likely be forgotten a bit at the windows in favor of those with more class on paper.  Just remember, outside of perhaps Street Boss, it doesn’t get any classier in a sprint than Benny the Bull.

I’d love to use Fabulous Strike, but with the abundance of speed I can really only see him hanging on for place, or more likely show.  I’ll use the favorite Lucky Island on top, toss in First Defence and Rockerfeller for place, and give Fabulous Strike and longshot Kodiak Kowboy a chance to hit the board for show.

Selections: 3/4,6/1,4,5,6 ($6)

Race 9: The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational - Grade 1 - 1 1/2 miles (Turf) - $600,000

1. Interpatation - Robert Barbara (Kent Desormeaux) 20/1
2. Elusive Fort - Raja Malek (Robby Albarado) 20/1
3. Dancing Forever - Claude McGaughey (Rene Douglass) 5/2*
4. Proudinsky - Robert Frankel (Ramon Dominguez) 3/1
5. Summer Patriot - Barclay Tagg (Eibar Coa) 8/1
6. Grand Couturier - Robert Ribaudo (Alan Garcia) 7/2
7. Strike a Deal - Alan Goldberg (Javier Castellano) 6/1
8. Presious Passion - Mary Hartmann (Eddie Castro) 10/1
9. Jade’s Revenge - Graham Motion (Edgar Prado) 15/1

The 32nd running of the Joe Hirsch features a field of 9 runners going a grueling 1 1/2 miles over the turf for a total purse of $600,000.  There are some familiar names here, including Proudinksy - who we recently saw finishing a game 2nd to Big Brown in the Monmouth Stakes.  There’s also Grand Couturier, winner of the Grade 1 Sword Dancer against Better Talk Now, and who also finished just 3 1/2 lengths behind Curlin and Red Rocks in the Man O’ War. 

From a pace standpoint, the outside horses, Strike a Deal, Presious Passion, and Jade’s Revenge could be involved together early on.  To be honest though, I see Presious Passion getting a clear lead and taking this group around the track at a moderate pace.  Strike a Deal is his likely challenger, although I suspect he’ll prefer to rate today considering the added ground he’s up against for the first time.  Jade’s Revenge could be sent from the outside, but I’m guessing he’ll duck in and try to save some ground as he’s an outsider on paper. 

The three horses I think will be right there with a chance to make a move turning for home are Grand Couturier (hard to argue with 4 wins at the 1 1/2 mile distance),  Dancing Forever (who Shug McGauhey out to have back in the form that earned him favoritism in the Sword Dancer), and Summer Patriot (a longshot who is on the improve).  I think any one of these guys can get it done.

Since I’m no where near as good a turf handicapper as I am a dirt handicapper (one must be conscious of their limitations in this game), I’ll spread the wealth on my pick 4 ticket and cover all of the above.  I’ll throw Proudinksy in there as well as I feel that Big Brown may be an even better turf horse than he is on dirt, and Proudinsky was right there with him in the Monmouth Stakes.

Selections: 6/3,5/3,4,5,8 ($6)

The play of the day will be the Pick 4 ticket, centered around Curlin in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. 

Pick 4:  3,5/1,3,4,6/3,4,5,6/5 ($32)

Best of luck to all - and be sure to check for late scratches and changes as you never know what’ll happen out there with the wet stuff coming down.