Talk about a wide open race! This may be the most difficult race to handicap on the Friday card. Admittedly this is partly because I’m not-so-good at handicapping either turf races or juvenile races (not to mention COMBINED turf and juvenile races). They’ll be going 1 mile over the Santa Anita turf for a purse of $1,000,000 on Friday. Several of the horses entered are cross-entered both here and in the Juvenile Fillies (which will be run on the Pro-Ride synthetic track), meaning the field will change a bit from what you see in the poll and is the reason the “AE” (also eligible) horses have been included in the poll.
I’ll be completely honest here. I have almost no opinion on this race. I say “almost” as I know I’ll likely be playing against the favorite, who as of right now is expected to be Laragh. Laragh could indeed be a force and must be covered on the pick 4/ pick 6 tickets, but as far as choosing one horse for each race is concerned I think we can beat her. She likes to get loose on the lead and wire the field home. That is something that is much easier to accomplish over the Santa Anita turf than it is the Pro-Ride.
I’m going to look for C. Karma to catch Laragh in the stretch, just as she did in the Natalma Stakes at Woodbine on 9/14. It’s possible that Laragh has progressed beyond C. Karma at this point, but I’ll be playing the odds here and hoping to get somewhere around 4/1 – 6/1 on a horse that has defeated the likely post time favorite.
C.Karma defeats Laragh in the Natalma Stakes at Woodbine on 9/16/08.
Renda will likely take some play at the windows, but I’d feel better about her chances if this were a dirt race instead of a turf race.
Keep your eye on the Europeans and members of the Also Eligible list that may draw into the field. Heart Shaped, in particular, for trainer Aiden O’Brien is a horse I would take a long look at in the post parade. There simply isn’t a stand out N.American competitor here to fear like a Curlin or a Zenyatta. That would seem to open things up a bit, and when we’re dealing with turf I always think it’s a mistake to discount the Euro-invaders.
One more horse that I’m curious to see on Friday is Oui Say Oui. For starters, she’s got the coolest name of the field. That’s got to count for something, right? She’s been running well out in Europe and should be a huge price on the board. I’m not saying she’s my top choice, but she’s one that I’ll toy with including on the exotics, for sure.
So who’s it going to be? Step on up and make your pick – then drop a note letting us know why. I’m actually hoping some of you can sell me on a horse or two here as I’ve got a bad feeling this will be the race I’m knocked out of the Pick 6.
This is one of the races I’m focusing on, and plan to blog about as soon as the official entries are made today. Laragh will likely be the favorite, and C Karma has a really good chance, but…the two I have my eye on are Graham Motion’s Saucey Evening (with Garrett Gomez up) and Shug McGaughey’s Consequence (Johnny V ?).
These kind of races I focus on breeding, and Saucey Evening’s dam Jeweled Lady is a full-sister to multiple G1 winner General Challenge (Pacific Classic, Santa Anita Derby, Santa Anita Handicap), and a 1/2 sister to G1 Oak Leaf (2 yo) winner Notable Career. Her sire More Than Ready is throwing some good grass horses (notably in Australia, like champion Sebring), plus Graham Motion is a master with turfsters (see Better Talk Now). She won the CA Cup Juvenile Fillies last out at Santa Anita (albeit on Pro-Ride), but broke her maiden on turf at Colonial Downs, and finished a close-up second at Del Mar. Excellent chance!
My big obsession is with Consequence, however. If ever there was a filly born to win this race, it is her. She broke her maiden first out at Saratoga and a game 4th (just 1/2 length behind winner Maram) in 8.5f Miss Grillo Stakes at Belmont. Both were over soft turf, so we’ll see if she can handle the rock-hard turf at Santa Anita, BUT….her mama, Educated Risk was a multiple G1 winner and finished 2nd in the 1992 BC Juvenile Fillies. Educated Risk is also a 1/2 sister to 1995 BC Distaff winner (and Hall of Famer) Inside Information. Consequence’s 3rd dam Clear Ceiling also produced G1 1000 Guineas winner Quick as Lightning, and the G1-placed turfster Infinite. Now THAT’S a pedigree for victory!
Oh, and I forgot to add, both Saucey Evening (3f :36.72) and Consequence (4f :46.18) had excellent workouts over the weekend. You can read ccomment about them by the DRF’s Clocker here:
http://drf.com/news/article/99258.html
http://www.drf.com/news/article/99226.html
Wow, Valerie! Great analysis.
Kevin, I couldn’t agree more with Val and CONSEQUENCE is bred to be the best filly in the field at age two and three. C KARMA is a solid pick, Kevin, as she’s game, has two career wins, and has beaten LARAGH twice. Both Canadian-based fillies could like SA more than WO.
I’m also considering APRIL PRIDE, G.3 placed in GB and privately sold to her current connections with this race in mind. Last time out she was beaten two lengths by FANTASIA, who was 2nd in the G.1 Fillies Mile to RAINBOW VIEW (4-for-4, 3 graded stakes wins).
Perhaps the filly with limitless potential won’t be running because she lacks seasoning. INTERNALLYFLAWLESS is first on the AE’s and needs help to draw in. She flew home in :23 1/5 to break her maiden in her first turf race, going sprint/route. Her dam is a 1/2 sister to: BOSRA SHAM, Euro Champion 2y.o. Filly, Euro Champion 3y.o. Filly, and Euro Champion Older female; HECTOR PROTECTOR, multiple G.1 winning sprinter/miler; and G.1 winner SHANGHAI.
@Amateur and Val – I LOVE YOU GUYS!!!! I seriously had a fairly weak opinion on this race and hadn’t been keeping the closest tab on the juvies yet this year. Thank you, thank you, thank you for your in depth and insightful opinions.
Sounds like a race to go a little deep in as far as the exotics go and cover a few numbers, eh?
it’s tough to throw out Sugar Mom at 10-1 in this race. Flew around the track last time out, and sports back to back 80+ BSF, only horse in the field who can sport that claim. Step up in class and weight, but a horse who went 5 wide and ran a 1:37 mile last time out and has been training well at Kee is hard not to take notice….
Consequence has dropped from 8/1 to 2/1 with 20 minutes to post! Looks like that pedigree angle is a good one, Val.
Also agree about Sugar Mom. Ron Correll mentioned her in his picks. That’s usually all I need to see.