The Breeders’ Cup Turf - finally we get a solid turf race for the year here in the United States! It’s been a somewhat down year in North America for turf racing overall. Luckily we’ve got horses coming into this one from the better turf races thus far, including the Sword Dance, the Hirsch, and the Man O’ War.
Probably the biggest name in the field, however, will be the Euro-invader Soldier of Fortune. Just take a look at this guy’s running lines: 3rd by 2 1/2 lengths to Zarkava in the Arc de Triomphe, 2nd by 1/2 length to Youmzain (the Arc’s 2nd place finisher) in the Saint Cloud, victory over Youmzain in the Coronation Cup, and a respectable 5th beaten by 2 3/4 lengths to Dylan Thomas in the 2007 Arc. Clearly this guy can run with the best, and is a worthy favorite at 7/2. Actually, all things being equal, 7/2 is a pretty fair price for a guy like this!
The North American runners are a bit tougher to figure out. Red Rocks (if we can call him a “NorthAmerican” runner….he does seem to do his best running here, so I’ll go with it even though he’s properly Irish) of course defeated Curlin in the Man O’ War - but where’s he been since? Looking over his form, it’s been a while since he strung together back to back victories. I may have made a mistake jumping the gun and picking him in our Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance contest, so I’ll go in a different direction here.
Grand Couturier devoured the competition in the Sword Dancer and the Turf Classic, but got much softer footing in those races than he’ll get at Santa Anita. Looking back to his last “firm” races leaves me thinking we’ve got to look elsewhere as well.
Better Talk Now (aka “Blackie” to his fans) is the horse I “want” to prevail here. The 9-year-old gelding has been one of my favorite horses for as long as I can remember. Not to mention I absolutely love Graham Motion as a trainer, and the fact that both are based out of what was essentially my back yard growing up at Fair Hill, MD. I’ve already promised friends on Facebook that I will “streak” if Blackie prevails. I’ll say this, while it’s hard to endorse Blackie as a top choice on paper, Graham has gotten him to run big against a lot of the same rivals he’ll meet on Saturday, and I’m sure they didn’t travel across the country to run 5th.
Still, I’ve got to go back to Soldier of Fortune for top honors here. I just think the Europeans have the distinct upper hand from a class standpoint in terms of turf form so far this year. Of course, anything can happen and you never know how well they’ve shipped/acclimated - but if the real Soldier of Fortune shows up I’m guessing it will be his day to shine. It’s still just an absolute shame though that Zarkava didn’t come over for this. It would’ve madequite a weekend having what I would have dubbed the “killer Z’s” (Zenyatta and Zarkava) highlighting each day’s card. Oh well, a guy can still dream can’t he?
I think it would be really, really neat if Better Talk Now won. He’s a very tough old campaigner, with a lot of heart, so my sentamental choice is Better Talk Now.