Yeah, the weird thing with me and Pick 3′s….I hit Pick 4′s more often than I hit Pick 3′s!!! How that is I have no idea….actually I do – it’s because I don’t allow myself to cover as many “shots” on my Pick 3′s. I look at pick 3′s and think of them as a chance to score $100, whereas I look at Pick 4′s as a chance to score $1000, so I’m willing to spend a tad more.

The result is usually that a horse I like burns my pick 3 ticket.

Lately I’ve only used Pick 3′s in the situations where I”m either knocked out of a Pick 4 in the first leg, or if I can’t come up with a PIck 4 that I like.

The key with both is finding a way to beat favorites. It’s cool to get a “free square” with a horse like Zenyatta, but they pretty much destroy big prices since EVERYONE has them. The cool thing is that beating a heavy chalk with a fairly logical 2nd or 3rd choice can open you up/keep you in line for a big score. Of course, if you’ve tried doing that with Zenyatta, you’re 0 for 8 (she wasn’t favored in her maiden race….I cashed on her though!).

Today a business friend of my husband called. He’s raised a lot of race horses in his day. (Not my husband, but the guy who called.)

He’s still got a couple of horses raised for racing in Florida. I was supposed to place my bets through him but then I found out about youbet which I liked better because it was private!!

Somehow he was seated in top seats at Breeders Cup, right behind (or in front of I forget) Arnold S and Kurt Russell. He was a guest of a top racing guy, (he said). He explained it to me but I was heading out the door. Not saying this to imply I’m hanging in these circles– trust me NO

But he told me he lost a ton of money also on second day, that all his pick 3′s were one pick short. I didn’t talk to him long, but it made me feel less off course in my choices, or at least less of a loser. He also said everyone around him was suffering similarly.

About exacta boxes – they are a decent bet for beginners, since you don’t get penalized if your top two choices run 2-1 instead of 1-2, but at the end of the day it’s tough to turn a profit boxing a lot of horses. I guess like everything else it has a time and a place (like when you really can’t separate, which does happen), but it’s far more rewarding to pick it without boxing.

That being said, I do tend to backload my tickets. My trifectas, for example, usually have one horse to win, 3 horses in place, and 5 in show. I just know that I’m much more lousy at picking a 3rd place finisher than I am a winner. Actually, that’s the very reason I’ve shied away from exactas and trifectas and instead focused on Pick 4′s for the most part. The dime superfectas of Breeders’ Cup weekend being an exception (and I didn’t do very well on them, to be honest).

About “Trip Handicapping” – it’s actually pretty good, but yes, it involves investing a lot of time watching race replays and looking for “trouble” that might not be in the abbreviated comments on the horses past performance. I take trouble into account, but usually I just go off the comments and/or the actual results chart (much better – tons of additional info). There are obvious things to look for like “bumped”, “bled”, or “in tight” – but to really get down and dirty at some point you’ve got to look for things that might not be apparent or evident to others. Think of it as a means for taking your game to the next level.

I’d say your best bet is to focus on the visual handicapping. That’s becoming something of a lost art. I’m trying to get better at it myself. It’s tough to do from an OTB screen or a computer monitor. Much better to be in the paddock at the races. It’s one of the surefire ways to get off a favorite and/or onto a live longshot. So far I’m only adapt at picking out sweating though – so much of horse’s behavior is still foreign to me that I can’t tell definitively when they are “acting up” or just being aggressive. If you’ve got a friend who owns horses you could probably learn a great deal from them. They are such fascinating animals!

LMAO @ “ordering desserts for dummies” – as there are a few ridiculous ones out there. I was just thumbing through Richard’s horse racing one and it’s still got my yellow highlight marker over things I thought were important. It’s a nice, easy read as well. Definitely not too much to digest. Some of the other books require some seroius reading/reflection time to put into practice.

Plus, I don’t know about you, but complex mathematic equations make me go bonkers. It’s just not my strong suit. That’s why I don’t calculate my own pace figures or anything like that – that’s a labor of love I could only do for pay. Still, it’s wise to recognize both the importance and futility of such concepts. It’s obviously important to know as much as you can about “why” and “how” a given race was run the way it was in order to make future assessments – but there’s also an element of futility as far as human error or assumptions are concerned. When you see the guys trying to figure out whether the wind was blowing 5 MPH or 7 MPH into the horse’s face entering the first turn – that’s where I get lost.

Best advice I can give you – just have fun. It’s probably not a good idea to expect a big score. Just make sure you are only wagering within your entertainment budget. I always say that if it’s money you would’ve saved or used to reduce debt – it’s a mistake to wager. If it’s money you would’ve spent on fast food and novelty junk (like lottery tickets) – then heck yeah, form an opinon about a race and bet it!

You’ll see lots of horses that you become familiar with during the bigger weekends, like Breeders’ Cup, KY Derby, etc. Those are usually the best days to fire up and jump into pools in my opinion. For one thing, there will be a lot of other folks wagering, which can inflate payoffs – and you’re usually dealing with better than average horses, so there’s generally more of a chance to really size them up against each other and get a feel for who’s who and what they are capable of.

Colonel John was my Derby pick, by the way.

And an exacta box of you Classic 4…

Sorry for you, sorry for Curlin.

I am not a fan of the fake.

My old riding trainer owns race horses on the side, and had told me exacta boxes were the way to bet. On my own this weekend (Friday night, thinking about my wasted bets) I’d decided they definitely were not. So on Saturday I placed win and show bets on the horses I thought were looking good, but there were so many surprises on Saturday.

I’m going to get the for dummies book. On certain topics they’re excellent resources. Although some of them are nuts– is there an “Ordering Desserts for Dummies?” I really like to see the horses in person before betting, and will be back in L.A. after Dec. 1 when that is much more possible.

DRF sent me an email today about a dvd called “Trip Handicapping” but I get the feeling you’d have to see every race to stay up on that. Even though I’m only an occasional track visitor, (mostly the big races) I was really surprised how many of the horses this past weekend I’d already seen race.

I was a big fan of Colonel John last year too.

anyway, thanks again, I’ll do some reading and keep following your blog. I’ve found it to be the most helpful of all the ones in the side panel, at least for someone like myself.