Ah, the sweet dawn of another weekend! The weather here in Pennsylvania is rather gloomy, so all outdoor activities (such as “winterizing” our outdoor water garden) are abruptly put on hold for the moment. Oh well, I wasn’t really feeling the “yard work itch” anyway. I’m already done cutting the grass for the year (I hope) and it’s a bit chilly for my liking. Of course, my 4-year-old has a sudden desire to be outside playing wiffleball (who can resist, even in the rain?), so we’ll see how that goes. Hopefully I’ll be able to dry off in time to catch some Hollywood action and see my beloved Alabama Crimson Tide take the field at home as #1 for the first time since Bear Bryant roamed our sidelines.
I’ll be covering the Hollywood action here, but I’ve got to mention a nifty little feature they have called the Rider’s Cup at Churchill as well. I know I don’t usually give a lot of coverage to Churchill until Derby time approaches, but I was most pleased to see this initiative take hold. When we were out in Vegas for the NTRA summit, I got to talk with the marketing reps from Churchill, who told me of this idea. The basic setup is that U.S. born jockeys (such as Robby Albarado and Calvin Borel) will square off against foreign born jockeys (such as Ramon Dominguez and Mr. “seven wins in one day” himself, Julien Leparoux). The winning “team” earns a $10,000 donation to the charity of their choosing, while the second place finisher receives a $5,000 donation. In other words, it’s a good cause, and I encourage horseplayers to take part and help make it a success.
Race 1: Alw 39000 NIX (6 1/2 Furlongs)
- #4 Masterful Miss (2/1*)
- #2 Judy Patootie (5/2)
- #3 Unusual Jane (3/1)
We start things off at ‘the Wood’ with a 5 horse field going 6 1/2 furlongs over the main cushion track in an N1X conditional allowance race for fillies and mares 3-and-up. Masterful Miss is my top choice for the Christopher Paasch barn. She was steadied hard last out in a race she probably could’ve won. Jockey Jonathan Rosario is due to get hot after a stellar Santa Anita meet, but has struggled a bit recently at Hollywood. Judy Patootie is somewhat interesting having graduated from the maiden ranks last out. She’s obviously stepping up in class today, but could clear this condition on first asking considering the small field and the fact that she’s likely to be on the lead right out of the gate. Of the late runners I tended to prefer Unusual Jane getting up for a small share of the action as they hit the wire. It seems the race would have to fall completely apart for a closer to score, but anything is possible with such a small field.
Race 2: Clm 25000 (7 Furlongs)
- #4 Forest Phantom (5/2*)
- #2 Storms of Life (10/1)
- #5 Sunshine Ride (3/1)
Open 25k claimers are the order for the 2nd race at Hollywood going 7 furlongs over the cushion track. Forest Phantom drops in class from the $50k ranks and returns to a distance and track that he’s thrived on thus far in his career. He’s been off since August 31, but note that trainer Mike Puype is a cool 35% with such layoffs. He looks the best of the field on paper but might need some pace help to close effectively. To be honest, there doesn’t appear to be much pace here. Speaking of which, Storms of Life was my best guess for a pace setter, which is the main reason he ranks as 2nd choice. I have a tough time imagining him holding on, but somebody has to lead this group and if he gets out on the lead comfortably might be set up for his best effort. Sunshine Ridge is another class dropper that gets the tandem of jockey Garrett Gomez and trainer John Sadler – who are hitting at 43% together over the last year at Hollywood.
Race 3: Alw 40000 N1X (1 1/16 Miles)
- #1 Vulcan (5/2)
- #2 Medjool (3/1)
- #6 Bronzino (8/1)
We stretch out to 1 1/16 miles on the cushion in the third race of the day, and despite being a small field of 6 runners, this race is rather interesting. Medjool was a horse I was once tracking on the Kentucky Derby trail earlier in the year. In fact, he was my pick for the Toyota Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland where he finished a flat 8th. He picks up Rafael Bejarano today and gives off some mixed signals. Certainly a Grade 1 runner entering conditional allowance conditions has to be considered, but he didn’t exactly look up to his class last month at Santa Anita. He probably needed that race though, so I’d expect a better effort today. Ultimately I sided with Vulcan for top honors, although I’m not very comfortable with the selection. I’m usually fond of the Tiznow colts, and this was one of the more promising looking up and comers from Tiznow’s 3-year-old crop earlier in the summer. He didn’t handle his first foray into the allowance ranks last time out, but he certainly wasn’t humiliated despite finishing 8th as the post time favorite. I’ll give him another chance to redeem himself. Sir Bell and Bronzino were my two options for third choice. I took Bronzino thinking he might show some speed from the outside and have a chance to wire the field if he handles the surface switch from turf to synthetics.
Race 4: Md Sp Wt 38k (1 1/16 miles – Turf)
- #2 Madame Striker (8/1)
- #4 Wicked Delight (2/1*)
- #8 Love to Siphon (5/2)
We’re headed to the turf in the 4th at Hollywood – this time maiden special weights routing 1 1/16 miles. There are three runners that intrigue me here, and each rather equally. I’m usually less definitive with my turf selections anyway. Wicked Delight drops from the $52k level after finishing a game 2nd last out to Quick Commander. Granted, that was in May, but do note that trainer John Shirreffs usually does well (28%, $2.54 ROI) with runners off extended layoffs. Love to Siphon should be the speed of the field breaking from the outside. If she can hang on she has a right to graduate, but her propensity for backing up in the stretch is less than inspiring. All of this leads me to look for a bit of an upset, and I settled on Madame Striker as my top choice for the job. She’ll have to handle the switch to turf in order to pull it off, but her sire line and trainer form suggest she’ll handle the switch just fine. I really love the sneaky combination of jockey Victor Espinoza (quietly hitting at 23% so far this meet) and trainer Kathy Walsh in this one’s corner. She hasn’t shown much talent yet on the track, so we’ll get a price if she scores. I’ll take a shot. Why not? The way my turf picks go, it beats throwing a dart at the board.
Race 5: Alw 40000s (7 Furlongs)
- #5 Salah Pick Six (6/1)
- #1 Atticus Jack (5/2)
- #4 Let’spicupthepace (2/1*)
I see this starter allowance as another 3-horse-race. Very tough to separate here. I admit I might be drinking the kool-aid a bit on Salah Pick Six as I see others are pointing out her debut (6th place finish at Santa Anita on 10/13) was better than advertised. Count me among those who agrees. I also think he prefers the Hollywood cushion. What I’m not sure of is whether the extra 1/2 furlong today will work against him? Atticus Jack and Let’spickupthepace are likely win candidates as well, with each exiting a win in their last effort’s. I’d cover all 3 in the exotics and move on. Not much else to say. The horse we’ll have to worry about is the Bejarano/Baffert runner Race Caller Luke breaking from the 2 hole. I hate it when I can see the horse that will likely beat me and they don’t come up in my picks. It messes with your head and makes you second guess everything from that point forward. I’m going to leave this one up to the post parade to make an ultimate decision. It’s probably foolish to do otherwise. Hopefully we get a solid look at them on TVG.
Race 6: Clm 62500 (6 Furlongs – Turf)
- #4 Unusually Hot (3/1)
- #1 Homemade Brew (7/2*)
- #5 Mini Do (5/2)
The 6th race is an interesting turf sprint. Usually I’m not a fan of turf sprints, but this one appears to be a decent betting race for a field of 8. Unusually Hot and Homemade Brew came out extremely close in my picks. I gave the nod to Unusually Hot even though trainer Ted West has been white-hot lately. Homemade Brew will need to overcome the rail, which could be a problem today. Conversely, Unusually Hot is in sharp recent form without any obvious concerns to worry about. Two x-factors in this race are Mini Do, who hasn’t looked the same since Spring, and Storm Siege, who breaks from the outside and could be the speed of the field. Keep an eye on those two in the post parade. My guess is that if there’s a thief here, it will be one of them.
Race 7: Md Sp Wt 37k (6 Furlongs)
- #6 Tevez the Tiger (6/1)
- #5 Cut the Check (5/1)
- #10 Infernal (3/1*)
The 7th race is another maiden special weight going 6 furlongs over the cushion track, and yet another competitive field. Tevez The Tiger was a $450,00 purchase at the September 2007. In his debut he finally got going, but from the comment line appears to have done so too late. He’s dropping from the $50k level and if he makes a favorable post parade impression, I’ll be willing to bet he got an education from that first try. After all, what’s not to like about trainer Eoin Harty teaming up with jockey Rafael Bejarano? Cut the Check is another interesting runner. Check out who he faced in his debut. Two of those runners, Fasnacht and Azul Leon are fairly highly regarded in their division, and this guy showed speed until being beaten by a head at the wire by Azul Leon. He could be ready to roll this time out. Lastly, Infernal looks like a usable debut runner, although I was surprised to find him favored on the morning line. Craig Dollase is a trainer who can get his first timers ready to run right out of the gate, and the workout tab looks encouraging enough to me. Toss in the always dangerous M.C. Baze in the irons and it would be hard to leave this guy off the exotics.
Race 8: The Audrey Skirball-Kenis (1 1/8 Miles – Turf)
- #6 Solar Miss (7/2)
- #5 Miss Singhsix (5/2*)
- #4 You Lift Me Up (5/1)
The feature race of the afternoon is the Audrey Skirball-Kenis for 3-year-old fillies going 1 1/8 miles over the turf. A field of 9 runners will compete for the $65,000 in purse money. Solar Miss figures to be coming late from off of whatever pace materializes in front of her. If she gets something to run at, she looks to be the one to beat. She’s won 2 of her last 4 and really hasn’t turned in a clunker yet in her career. Miss Sinhsix is an Irish-bred runner from trainer Patty Gallagher’s barn that is looking for her first stakes win. Alex Solis is back in the irons today. Like Solar Miss, Miss Singhsix hasn’t turned in a true “clunker” either. If she’s on top of her game she can make a run for the money here. You Lift Me Up and Fire n’ Brimstone rated equally for me in the third spot. I went with You Lift Me up because I figured she’d be more forwardly placed and have a better shot at hitting the board (or better). I wouldn’t leave Fire n’ Brimstone off the vertical wagers either.
Race 9: Md 32000 (7 Furlongs)
- #4 Just Tap It (3/1)
- #3 Colorful Dancer (5/2*)
- #10 Freedom Hall (15/1)
We wind up the day with a maiden claimer for 2-year-old maidens going 7 furlongs over the cushion track. Just Tap It looks very appealing to me here. He’ll likely be the second choice on the board behind Colorful Dancer, but the son of Tapit takes an even bigger class drop than the favorite going from $50k to $32k. After steadying at the start of his debut he managed to lead the field through most of the race before wilting at the finish. If he gets a better trip today, watch out. Colorful Dance is a decent enough horse in his own right. He rallied late in his debut to finish 4th by only 2 1/2 lengths. He’ll move from the 10 hole to the 4 hole today and it’s wise to note that trainer Mike Mitchell doesn’t make many bad moves lately. You’ve also got to look at some shots in a race like this, and I’ll take a stab with Freedom Hall. Why? Well, the horse missed the break in each of his first two starts, but then turned in a decent run in the middle and end of each, respectively. That leads me to think that if he ever gets his act together, he might be able to turn in a decent run…at least decent enough to compete with maiden $32k claimers, that is.
Best of luck to each of you, as always be sure to check for late changes and/or scratches.
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