THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

God I love this time of year.  We’re oh-so-close to the beginning of the “road to the roses” and the main Derby prep races, the holidays are in full force, and even outside of horse racing I’ve got reason to cheer with my fantasy football teams in full playoff drive and my beloved Alabama Crimson Tide facing off against the mighty Florida Gators in the SEC Championship.

My attention on Saturday will be largely focused on the SEC Championship.  What else is a native son of  ’Bama to do?  I’ll still be playing the ponies on the side though, so without getting too off-topic about how I hope Terrance Cody and company pancake Tim Tebow and the Gators to get the Tide into the national title game, what follows are my selections for the bigger races of the day Saturday.  We’ve got several stakes to look at, including two named for My Charmer, the Hollywood Turf Cup, and the Native Dancer.

Calder Race 8: The Grade 3 My Charmer Handicap (1 1/8 Miles – Turf) – 3:30 ET

• #9 Rutherienne (5/2*)
• #2 Jeux de Danse (12/1)
• #4 Callwood Damcer (4/1)

We’ll start things off in the My Charmer Handicap (Grade3) at Calder (race 8) with a post time of 3:30 EST.    There are several horses that could win this thing, and that list obviously includes the favorite, Rutherienne at 5/2. ‘Ruth hasn’t won since April over in Keeneland, but she is 3 for 3 lifetime at Calder and has a very respectable two wins and three shows in 6 starts over the turf going today’s distance.  I think she’s vulnerable enough that you can take a shot against her in such a big field, but certainly don’t disrespect her if she drifts upward from 5/2.   Value can likely be found with the Martin Wolfson trained Jeux de Danse, who is an absurd 12/1 on the morning line despite exiting back to back victories having scored Beyer figures in excess of 90 in each.  Today will be an acid test, and the distance may be enough of a question to scare away some bettors, but if you’re going to take a win bet, this looks like your horse.  Callwood Dancer has a nack for hanging around, even at the Grade 1 level, and I suspect she’ll be a part of things in this one as well.  She could actually get the perfect trip here, to be completely honest, but my gut tells me she’s best used underneath on the exactas and trifectas.  Still, 4/1 isn’t too bad, and if the odds were to get a bit better she might be worth a stab as well.  I’ll add in Wild Promises (5/1), Never Retreat (12/1), and  Jade Queen (6/1) underneath on my 10 cent superfecta.

-$20 Win:  #2 Jeux de Danse

-$.10 Superfecta: 2,9/2,4,9/2,3,4,6,9,10/2,3,4,6,9.10 ($4.80)

Turfway Park Race 11: The My Charmer Stakes (1 1/16 Miles) – 5:45 ET

• #9 Absolutely Cindy (7/2)
• #3 Kiss With a Twist (5/2*)
• #2 A to the Croft  (4/1)

Next we move to the all-weather track at Turfway Park for the My Charmer Stakes.  At first I was giddy with excitement about betting Absolutely Cindy in this race.  My initial copy of the DRF had her at a mind blowing 10/1, but upon further review she is actually 7/2.  Even worse (for me), there’s one feature article about her, and excellent handicapper Mike Watchmaker has madeher his selection.  I think we can kiss her third choice status on the morning line goodbye.  She’s still the horse I want to play here.  I’m not enamored with the two top “now horse” selections, Kiss With a Twist and Champagne Taste.  Of those two I prefer the synthetic form of Kiss With a Twist and would consider Champagne Taste a total play against (although in the interest of full disclosure she did rank as my 4th overall selection).  I’m not going to wager anything other than a win bet here, and regardless of the odds I’m going with ‘Cindy.   This race just fits her so well.  She was clearly overmatched when taking on graded stakes foes here and should find the going much easier.  A to the Croft has similar angles for trainer Ken McPeek, but I’m going to give ‘Cindy a decided edge. If anything I may pair them in an exacta for a limited exotic wager.

$20 Win: #9 Absolutely Cindy

Hollywood Race 6: The Grade 3 Native Diver (1 1/8 Miles) – 6:04 ET

• #3 Spring House (5/1)
• #4 Past the Point (5/2)
• #6 Galantas (4/1)

The 30th running of the Native Diver (G3) came up rather interesting over at Hollywood Park.  The morning line favorite at 5/2 is Past the Point, who we saw last August running strong against Curlin in the Woodward Stakes. On his best stuff he would be a force here, but you’ve got to be at least a bit concerned about his somewhat suspect synthetic form.  Still, it’s worth noting that he seemingly became a different horse after reaching Saratoga, and it’s possible he’s simply turned the corner.  Ultimately I was a bit worried that Barber and others might show speed and prevent him from getting out on top.  My hunch is that he’ll have to rate a bit if he’s to prove victorious.  For that reason, I’ll go with Spring House.  I know, I know, this is a turf horse and the cushion track of Hollywood plays more like dirt than Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride, but this wasn’t just any turf horse.  This was a horse who won the Del Mar Handicap (G2) and went off as the favorite in the Clement L. Hirsch (G1).  I think he’s the class and the talent of the field.  Judging from his 11/21 5 furlong workout in :58 and change, I’d say he won’t mind the artificial surface on Saturday.  He may like a bit more distance than the Native Diver offers, but this feels like a good spot for his first synthetic try.  Galantas, Ball Four, and Zappa all rated closely for 3rd in my picks, but ultimately I took the Graham Motion runner.  This was for several reasons.  I’m concerned that Zappa isn’t the horse I once thought he was (he might prove me wrong yet though), and I’m worried that Ball Four will be part of a pace duel.  That leads me to Galantas coming from just off the pace for a minor share, and who knows? Perhaps more?  It would be fantastic to see Graham Motion get a big win for all the effort he’s put in shipping his horses across country from Fair Hill, MD to Santa Anita and Hollywood.

$10 Win: #3

$1 Tri: 3/4,6/4,5,6,7,8 ($8)

Hollywood Race 8: The Grade 1 Hollywood Turf Cup (1 1/2 Miles – Turf) – 7:05 ET

• #1 Church Service (4/1)
• #4 Champs Elysees (9/5*)
• #3 Winchester (3/1)

We wind up the day with the 27th running of the Grade 1 Hollywood Turf Cup.  The favorite is Champs Elysees at 9/5.  I like the Champs, but not at 9/5.  He could make the whole thing  academic, but I think you’ve got to play against at those odds.  Church Service and Winchester look like to good options, or you could take a flyer on one of the mares in here at a decent price with High Heel Sneakers and Black Mamba.  I took Church Service because of his strong 2nd place finish in the inaugural Breeders’ Cup Marathon last month at Santa Anita behind Muhannak by a head.  Distance should not be an issue for the Mike Mitchell trainee and his current form appears quite useful here at 4/1.  Winchester is another of those “hit or miss” types I always talk about.  Notice his running line pattern leading up to his two victories.  He seems to go from turning out clunkers to putting it all together. If you excuse his effort in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, he looks like a major contender here.  The question is whether that 106 Beyer in the Secretariat was the real him, or if the “real him” is closer to the 93 in the Breeders’ Cup Turf.  In the captain obvious statement of the day, I’ll suggest it’s somewhere in between.  Since this is the end of my Saturday post for the weekend, and I’ve not really made any ridiculous or otherwise off-the-wall statements, allow me to suggest that if #2 Summer Survivor hits the board, I’ll streak naked through the streets of my town while singing Bryan Adams songs.  Seriously, can someone explain what the connections are thinking putting this guy in a “marathon” Grade 1 race?  I don’t get it.  Perhaps he can be part of the early pace and give his supporters a brief thrill.  There, I’ve already devoted more type to him than his chances warrant. 

$10 Win: #1

$1 Tri: 1/3,4/3,4,7,8 ($6)

As always, best of luck to all and be sure to check for late changes and scratches.   Also, if I may venture slightly off topic here, as the next time I speak to you it will be the morning of December 7th, please ensure you take a brief moment to remember the sacrifice of our naval forces at Pearl Harbor.  As I write this, 67 years ago, many of them were enjoying their final moments on earth.  It’s worth remembering that while we prepare for the holidays.  If you ever get the chance to visit the USS Arizona memorial – make sure you do so.  It’s a life changing experience. 

Oh yes, and I wouldn’t be me without saying this….ROLL F’N TIDE!!!!!!!!!