THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

So the Crimson Tide couldn’t quite get it done for me yesterday, falling to the Florida Gators 31-20 in the SEC Championship game.  Oh well.  12-1 in Saban’s second season is beyond even our wildest expectations.  Time to move on, and thankfully there’s racing action to take my mind off of gridiron defeats.

Speaking of defeat, it’s always healthy to get your teeth kicked in every once in a while, but my god….I lost every race I played yesterday.  It was as if an omen from the heaven’s was being shown to me.  Yesterday was simply not my day.  The great thing about life here on earth is that pain lasts only as long as you allow it.  The next day brings opportunity for redemption, vindication, and rebirth. 

With that in mind, let us cast our collective eyes westward to the friendly confines of Hollywood Park in the hopes large winnings and thrilling finishes.

Race 1 Alw 39000 N1X

•  #2 Cat Brulay (2/1*)
• #4 Il Girasole (5/2)
• #5 Smoth and Savvy

Nothing much to see in the opener.  Five horses going 1 mile over the turf.  If this weren’t part of a pick 4 (early) I’d probably avoid even looking at it.  As it is I thought Cat Brulay had the look of a standout on paper.  We’ll see though.  This will be the son of Storm Cat’s third try at the N1X level, and typically you prefer to see a horse clear that level of competition as fast as possible.  Il Girasole could be any kind of horse.  He probably needs a race, but he’s by Lemon Drop Kid and has won in his debut, so you know there’s an element of talent at work.  Smooth and Savvy simply looked like the best of the rest.  I hate these short fields.   I hate leaving 2 horses out of the picks.  Inevitably one of them will beat you.

Race 2: Clm 10000

• #3 Bold Cleo (5/2*)
• #7 Zaya (7/2)
• #6 Sportie’s Squeeze (3/1)

I’m not happy with the second race either.  There’s multiple directions you can go, and yet somehow I wound up on three fairly shaky selections that are all undervalued.   Bold Cleo and Zaya have been banging heads at the bottom rock claiming levels.  Luckily for them this is only a $10k claimer, so it’s well within their reach.  Sportie’s Squeeze has run well against tougher, so I think you’ve got to include her in the mix.  I’m not sure what to make of some of the others in this field.  Looks like a dangerous race to me. 

Race 3: Md Sp Wt 37k

• #7 Taste’s Sis (5/2)
• #4 Cavanal (2/1*)
• #1 Figeac (8/1)

Now we’ve got some options to play with!  Taste’s Sis somehow moved to the $80k OC/N1x level last out despite still being a maiden.  That’s aggressive.  She’ll drop back down to more friendly confines after training well for the Gary Mandella barn.  Cavanal is an obvious “must use” horse.  She’s dropping from the $70k level and has a trio of 2nd place finishes to denote her ability.  This is likely a two horse race between these two.  Figeac is a first time turf starter who I thought was worth throwing in underneath. 

Race 4: Md Sp Wt 36k

• #5 Fancy Lashes (3/1*)
• #5 Miss Lion Heart (7/2)
• #8 Shehadmefromhello (12/1)

Things get even more interesting with Cal-bred two-year-old maiden fillies in the 4th race.  Fancy Lashes is a debut daughter of Strong Hope for trainer Doug O’Neill that has been working brilliantly in preparation for her first start.  O’Neill isn’t the best trainer with debut form, but he can certainly get the job done.  Miss Lion Heart is a daughter of Lion Heart for the Paul  Schiewe barn that put up a 75 Beyer Speed Figure in her debut at the $46k level at Santa Anita.  Underneath those two I thought both Shehadmefromhello and No Saint But Sweet were extremely good value at 12/1 and 8/1, respectively.  Third Dawn is one I’m waiting to see in the post parade to make a final assessment on.

Race 5: Alw 40000s

• #4 Ballestero (7/5*)
• #4 Solo Performance (3/1)
• #2 Craig’s Storm (8/1)

The 5th race  isn’t part of either pick 4 sequence, so I’m going to be brief here.  Ballestero looks like the standout for trainer Jay Robbins.  He seems to run his race and be very consistent each time he hits the track.  That’s comforting at the starter allowance level.  Solo Performance could be sneaky, but the presence of Bejarano as jockey likely means all value will disappear.  Craig’s Storm looks like a logical play underneath and 8/1 really isn’t half bad, all things considered.

Race 6: Md 25000

• #4 Flew First Class (5/2*)
• #5 Coconut Telegraph (4/1)
• #8 Silent Western (10/1)

I thought this maiden claimer was about 3 horses when all is said and done.  Flew First Class will get hammered at the betting windows, and it’s not hard to see why.  She’s dropping in class, has the top jockey in Bejarano, has been working well, and is running for the Brian Koriner(26%) barn.  Yup, you’ve pretty much got to use her in the exotics.  Coconut Telegraph could be her biggest challenge.  Trainer Mike Mitchell is brilliant with debut runners (22%) and this one has been working well.  It’s also nice to see Tyler Baze pick up the mount.  If you want a real longshot, how about Silent Western?  At 10/1 you get a horse for a hot trainer (James Kasparoff, from an admittedly limited sample size), and picks up Aaron “the rider” Gryder. I could see No Guessing, Hanna’s Moment, and Vulnerable all threatening to hit the board as well.

Race 7: Clm 50000

• #1 Lahuk’s Dancer (5/2)
• #5 Midwesterner (10/1)
• #3 Within Reason (2/1*)

A very competitive bottom-rock claimer greats us in race 7  from “the wood.”  I thought Lahuk’s Dancer, 2nd choice on the morning line at 5/2, was the standout here.  He’s coming off a decent win for the white hot Ted West barn and could get another great stalking trip here today.  Midwesterner is my bomber.  I thought there was ample speed in here that while he may need a race to get back in shape, he’d be eligible to be running well late as they close on the wire.  Within Reason, the favorite, should be begging for the wire in the stretch.  I think you’ve got a real shot of him finishing out of the money here, and almost took Euroglide as my 3rd choice.  This looks like a good betting race unless everyone else sees it as Lahuk’s Dancers’ race to lose.

Race 8:  The Bayakoa Handicap (Grade 2)

• #4 Baroness Thatcher (6/1)
• #5 Double Trouble (3/1)
• #1 Model (5/2*)

The 27th running of the Bayakoa Handicap is the feature race of the afternoon.  I took a bit of a stab here with an old friend, Baroness Thatcher.  Ms. Thatcher has burned me before on numerous occasions, but she really seems to have woken up now that they’ve switched her to a synthetic surface.  Two things to keep in mind.  First, she’s worked brilliantly since arriving in California and training at Santa Anita. Secondly, her wire to wire victory at Keeneland last out, while on the slow side and against suspect company, was a “wire to wire win at Keeneland.” I trust some will understand the importance of that.  You’re talking about one of the most biased tracks in the country against front  running speed.  You can sometimes count on one hand how many wire-to-wire winners you get there.  Again, it was slow as dirt, but she still did it.  Double Trouble and Model each warrant major respect here as well.  They should both be coming from off the pace, which puts them in good position to strike turning for home.  Briecat has a chance to be there as well, especially if she’s loose on the lead as I suspect she will be.  My guess is that Baroness Thatcher will stalk behind Briecat and may have a chance for first jump at her turning for home.

Race 9: Md 32000

• #6 Dial Four Peace (5/2*)
• #5 Urban Cat (6/1)
• #8 El Tajin (4/1)

We wind up the day with a $32k claimer two-year-old maidens going 6 1/2 furlongs over the cushion track.  Dial Four Peace has the highest last Beyer of the field (62) and seems eligible to improve.  Where he may be vulnerable is that her early speed, while it puts him in contention from first step, hasn’t held especially well.  It’s encouraging though that it held much better last out.  One move forward and he’s at the wire in front.  If anyone gets him, my guess is it will be Urban Cat, who offers real value  at 6/1.  He should be coming gamely down the stretch late.  El Tajin and HajaBoy both look useful underneath.  I like El Tajin a small bit better, but Haja Boy offers value underneath at 20/1.

Best of luck to all!