Saturday Gulfstream picks

30 01 2009

Hot off an exciting Friday that saw Captain Candyman Can prevail in the Hutcheson (where highly touted Break Water Edison finished a disappointing 6th), Guflstream Park comes right back with an even more thrilling Saturday card that features the Grade 1 Donn Handicap, the Grade 3 Holy Bull, and the much anticipated debut of Barbaro’s little brother, Nicanor.  As if all of that were not enough, Gulfstream beckons horseplayers from all over the land with 10 cent superfectas and a much needed 50 cent Pick 4 sequence. 

For anyone in need, you can access a free copy of the Gulfstream past performances over at the home page for the TBA.

Race 7: The Grade 3 Holy Bull  (1 1/8 Miles)

  • #1 Bruce N Autumn (12/1)
  • #2 Danger to Society (5/1)
  • #3 Bear’s Rocket (20/1)
  • #4 Saratoga Sinner (12/1)
  • #5 El Crespo (12/1)
  • #6 Rockland (8/1)
  • #7 Stately Character (20/1)
  • #8 Idol Maker (6/1)
  • #9 Nowhere to Hide (8/1)
  • #10 West Side Bernie (3/1*)
  • #11 Beethoven (4/1)

Several horses who hope to figure prominently on the Kentucky Derby trail highlight the 20th running of the Holy Bull.  Beethoven and West Side Bernie, the likely favorites, have each drawn outside post positions for the two-turn route, and could be compromised by this development.  Might that set things up for a thief from the inside? 

From looking over the selections of the handicappers in the Saturday edition of the DRF, I see I’m not alone in boosting the chances of the promising Danger to Society.  He’s an intriguing son of Harlan’s Holiday who is undefeated in two starts.  While it’s tough to figure out just what quality of opponents he’s been facing, he could get a great trip here today stalking from off the pace.  I especially like that he’s got a victory under his belt at the demanding 9 furlong distance, something neither Beethoven or West Side Bernie can say. 

I consider myself enough of a Beethoven fan at the moment to anticipate that he’ll run well on Saturday.  He’s been flattered now with Captain Candyman Can’s win in the Hutcheson on Friday, as he defeated him last time out along with Giant Oak.  I think this makes Beethoven the class of the field and the obvious win candidate on paper.  My only problem with West Side Bernie is that he exits the Delta Jackpot, and we all know historically that race tends to be inflated in terms of class and worth. 

Another interesting runner to consider here on the bottom of exotic tickets is the Smarty Jones colt Rockland.  He’d have to step up big time to win here, and I don’t predict that happening, but it’s hard to knock his recent form.  True, he only stepped up to the lower allowance level last time out, but it’s still nice to see a Beyer improvement from 77 to 82 his first time against winners. 

Stately Character is another that warrants some consideration.  He offers great value at 20/1 and should be charging late if he gets something to run at.  Speaking of which, from a pace standpoint, this one does look a little curious.  I’m guessing Idol Maker and Bear’s Rocket should be a part of whatever is going on early on.   Danger to Society could be involved as well, or he could stalk.  Either way I think the pace setup is very favorable to him.  El Crespo is the x-factor here to me as it’s any-one’s guess how his recent turf form will translate to dirt in his first try over that surface. 

For my superfecta ticket, I’ll play Danger to Society for the win over Beethoven, West Side Bernie, and Stately Character.  I’ll add in Rockland and El Crespo underneath for show.  Rounding out the ticket I’ll add in Idol Maker and Bruce N’ Autumn for 4th.

2/7,10,11/5,6,7,10,11/1,5,6,7,8,10,11 ($6.00)

 

Race 9:  The Grade 1 Donn Handicap (1 1/8 Miles)

  • #1 Finallymadeit (12/1)
  • #2 Albertus Maximus (4/1)
  • #3 Anak Nakal (10/1)
  • #4 Bullsbay (8/1)
  • #5 A.P. Arrow (10/1)
  • #6 On Board Again (20/1)
  • #7 Arson Squad (3/1)
  • #8 Sir Whimsy (12/1)
  • #9 Great Hunter (15/1)
  • #10 Einstein (5/2*)

The Donn stacks up as a formidable feature race on the Gulfstream card. This is the kind of feature that would be the centerpiece of that crazy “Take Back Saturday” idea I’m always on about.  We’ve got Albertus Maximus, Einstein, and a very sharp looking Arson Squad all lined up to do battle.  Every runner in the race with the exception of Bullsbay has posted a 100 Beyer at some point in their career.  Want to know the crazy thing though?  I actually really like Bullsbay here as a value play.  I’ll explain more in a bit.

First, let’s look at the obvious.  The top two win candidates on paper have to be considered Einstein and Arson Squad.  Einstein gets the outside draw here, but he’s classy enough to overcome that.  I usually think of Einstein as more of a turf runner (as many do), but he’s showed that he can run competitively on the dirt, as evidenced by his win in the Clark Handicap and his 2nd place finish to eventual Horse of the Year winner Curlin in the Stephen Foster.   Even better for Einstein, 9 furlongs seems to be his sweet spot.  I think he’s got a big chance here, but the value likely won’t be much.  He’s a definite horse to cover in the exotics.

Arson Squad is another to keep an eye on.  If you’ve been following the mini-feud between Andy Beyer and trainer Rick Dutrow in the Daily Racing Form over Dutrow’s dramatically improved colt This Ones for Phil, you’re no doubt wondering “if Dutrow could do that with a career best 80 Beyer runner, what might he do with Arson Squad here?”  The answer is simple.  Don’t look for any dramatic 20 point increase, but this is clearly a horse in sharp form that is to be respected in this contest.  The one thing that worries me with him is that he’s seemingly gotten better with a few races under his belt following a layoff, and he’s been off since late November.  That being said, he certainly improved once entering Dutrow’s barn, and has been working pretty well in the mornings.  He’s another player with a big shot, but I’ll once again probably look elsewhere for value in the superfecta.

Albertus Maximus is probably going to wind up the 3rd choice on the tote board at post time, but there are questions with him as well.  He’s not exactly known for his true dirt form and is seemingly a better synthetic runner, although do note that he has a win and a place in two starts over the conventional surface.  He’s probably the hardest horse to get a read on in the entire field and could show up huge or be a huge bust. 

My upset special?  I’m going with the dark horse, the only guy not yet in the 100 Beyer club.  That’s right: Bullsbay.   I know, it may look like madness at first glance, but here me out on this.  First, he’s from trainer Graham Motion’s barn, who has always been one of my favorites.   Two races back he defeated a field that included Belmont Stakes winner Da’ Tara.  He got a good primer under his belt going 8 furlongs last out and raylling for 2nd place over the Gulfstream main track.  Lastly, he’s a Tiznow…and one that figures to offer some value on the board.  Make no mistake, I”m not necessarily predicting he’ll win here, as I’d expect either Einstein or Arson Squad do wind up in the winner’s circle.  I just think he’s got enough of a chance here to be a decent value play.  Especially in the superfecta. 

4/2,7,10/1,2,3,7,10/1,2,3,5,6,7,8,9,10 ($8.40)

 

As for Nicanor’s debut?  I’m going to sit and watch this one.  Don’t get me wrong, I’ll have a pick 4 ticket in play that will likely have him covered, but I’m not going to heap any expectations on the colt until we see what we have in him.  It’s enough for now that he’s in racing and that at least some of the same genes that went into Barbaro are back on the track.  Anything on top of that is gravy.   We’ve also got the Santa Monia at Santa Anita, but with Indian Blessing’s scratch that race got a lot less exciting.  Ventura all the way for what it’s worth. 

As always, be sure to check for late scratches and or changes.  Best of luck to everyone.


Comments : 4 Comments »
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Categories : Barbaro, Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail

Curlin still the champ

26 01 2009

The speculation is over.  Curlin has defended his crown as Horse of the Year by taking the honor again for 2008.  The son of Smart Strike becomes the first horse since Cigar to repeat as Horse of the Year.   In the final “race” of his life, he held against the amazing filly Zenyatta to prevail by 84 votes, 153 to 69.

The win, along with top older male honors, marked the 4th Eclipse Award the talented champion has earned, having also won the 2007 Horse of the Year and top 3-year-old male last season.   “Team Curlin” didn’t do so bad either, with trainer Steve Asmussen picking up his first Eclipse Award as champion trainer.  Perhaps the defining moment of Curlin’s campaign that help seal the deal in his bid to repeat as champion was his impressive performance in the Dubai World Cup, a race in which owner Jess Jackson would mention that he was proud to plant the U.S. flag overseas.

Curlin wins the prestigious Dubai World Cup in March 2008

 

Other winners included:

  • Apprentice Jockey:  Pascacio Lopez
  • Jockey:  Garrettt Gomez
  • Trainer: Steve Asmussen
  • Breeder:  Adena Springs
  • Owner:  Stronarch Stables
  • Steeplechase Horse: Good Night Shirt
  • Female Turf:  Forever Together
  • Male Turf: Conduit
  • Female Sprinter: Indian Blessing
  • Male Sprinter: Benny the Bull
  • 2-Year-Old Filly:  Stardom Bound
  • 2-Year-Old Male:  Midshipman
  • 3-Year-Old Filly: Proud Spell
  • 3-Year-Old Male: Big Brown
  • Older Female: Zenyatta
  • Older Male:  Curlin
  • HORSE OF THE YEAR:  CURLIN

Some of the highlights of the evening included the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance being plugged during an acceptance speech by Brad Hennegan of the Hennegan Brothers, who captured the Eclipse Award in television feature for their acclaimed work on “The First Saturday in May.”  That’s some serious positive press for our little TBA “band of brothers” (and sisters). 

Also of note was the shocking news (to me at least) that IEAH Stables would bring champion sprinter Benny the Bull out of retirement later this summer for another campaign and a chance to defend his newly won crown.  This is really good news for racing fans.  I’ve been an admirer of Benny the Bull for a while now, and while he was a heavy favorite, his win on Belmont Day in the True North Handicap still gives me chills.  We had him singled on a Pick 6 ticket that, while singled later in the day on Big Brown, was dependant upon ‘Benny getting it done in the True North.  As the field raced for home  it looked like Benny was up against it and might not pull through, perhaps suffering a dreaded “Dubai bounce”, but he willed himself home in the final 100 yards to temporarly save the day.   If he’s got any more of that left in the tank, the second half of this year ought to be exciting.

Benny the Bull rallies late to win the True North Handicap on Belmont Day in June 2008

 

All in all, while I respect the awards themselvees, the awards show is something I dare say is in need of a wholesale makeover.  Don’t get me wrong, there were probably some of the more memorable acceptance speeches I’ve seen this year, including one innocent and easily taken out of context comment by Jess Jackson perhaps suggesting  that Assistant Trainer Scott Blasi may have  “slept with” Curlin.  That one in particular got a chuckle out of me.  For the most part, however, the feeling watching at home on television was sort of bland.  Although I’ve got to give a big shout out to TVG analyst Simon Bray for sporting the “Vince from ShamWow” headset microphone.   :)

I just wish they’d jazz these awards shows up a bit and make them a bit more appealing to a new generation of fans.  I’ not suggesting I’d like to see the Jonas Brothers there or anything like that, but it wouldn’t hurt to spruce things up a bit is all I’m saying.

Enough on that though, for now let us take a moment to congratulate everyone connected with the amazing race horse Curlin.  He’s the type of runner that already people have begun speaking of in that fashion reserved for the greats that typically begins “the first time I saw him…”  Once someone receives the kind of praise where people are marking their life’s progress by where they were and what they were doing the moment he achieved some of his greatest glory, you know he’s firmly etched in their hearts and minds. 

At the end of the evening Jackson joked that Curlin, while seemingly a bit depressed at not being able to race anymore, would soon find out what his future held, and would likely be very pleased.  I think that’s a good metaphor for where many of us as fans are.  We’re depressed as well that he won’t be back, though we certainly understand what a special opportunity it was for his connections to have brought him back as a 4-year-old in 2008.  For that we are eternally grateful. And like Curlin, perhaps if we could see into the future and what prospects it might hold, we would be qutie pleased as well.  Who knows, 3 years from now we might be getting ready to start buzzing about the first of his offspring to hint at their father’s ability and potential.

Mad props to you, Curlin.  May we be so lucky to have another like you soon.


Comments : 7 Comments »
Tags: , , , , , , , ,
Categories : Benny the Bull, Big Brown, Curlin, Eclipse Awards, Horse Racing News, Indian Blessing, Proud Spell, Stardom Bound, Zenyatta

Saturday offerings

24 01 2009

So I need to start out here by saying that circumstance has got the better of me.  Despite my best intentions, several nights in a row without as much as a wink of sleep have left me in the following situation;  It’s Saturday morning (roughly 10:30 AM EST as I begin writing this), and I’ve seriously not slept in days.  The end result being that my DRF containing the Sunshine Millions races remains unopened.  My plans for the weekend seemingly foiled. 

What to do?  That’s the million dollar question, isn’t it (in this case a “sunshine million” dollar question)?   Well, it’s not like I’m at a loss for loosely related and largely disjointed horse racing thoughts floating around in my head.   What follows is the exhausted ramblings of your’s truly in an attempt to get some sort of posting up for the weekend that connects my main stream of thought (the “road to the roses”) and the big action of the day in the Sunshine Millions.

We’ll start with the Sunshine Millions.

For me , the story of the day and the play of the day is going to be Finallymadeit in the Classic.  In case you missed this guy’s story, it’s an inspirational tale that literrally left my jaw dropped to the floor when I first heard it earlier this week (big hat tip to Ron Correll at  Tracksideview).  So here he is in the Classic, a Grade 3 winner breaking from the rail and likely the controlling speed of the race.   He’s faced a lot of the main rivals today, including probable favorite Delightful Kiss, and while he faded badly against that one last out in the Hal’s Hope, that was after extremely quick fractions (note the 2nd call being :46.4).   He should be able to relax and set a more comfortable pace today.   Who knows?  Can he take them all the way?  I think he can, and while I’m also quite fond of Macho Again  and uneasy about downgrading Delightful Kiss at all due to post position (cough, Big Brown’s Florida Derby, cough), I think I"m going to make him my play of the day.  It’s just too good a story not to jump on the bandwagon for and hope for the best.   I know, not a very scientific handicapping approach, but perhaps my lack of sleep is making me feel more mystical and otherworldly at the moment (either that or I picked a bad week to quit sniffing glue).   :)

Looking over the rest of the races, I know Riffkind wanted to see my thoughts on Georgie Boy, and as she is one of my favorite reade’s here, I’d feel it was a total dereliction of duty on my part if left her disappointed.   Another of my favorite readers, Sally C, has already pointed out that the rains have fallen in CA, which definitely has an impact on the surface.  We’ve seen all kinds of wild results so far at Santa Anita this meet, so I’m more than a little disturbed that I keep coming up rather predictable with respect to my handicapping of the Sprint.  My top two choices are In Summation and Georgie Boy, although I prefer In Summation by an extremely slight margin. 

There are a couple of x-factor horses in the Sprint that are worth checking out come post parade time.  For instance, which version of Devoted Magic shows up today?  Sure we could say that 105 Beyer was a fluke, but this is a Jerry Hollendorfer runner and everything he touches seemingly turns to gold.   It’s also hard to knock Yesbyjimminy.  He’s coming off 6 consecutive victories, although they were all on dirt  and he’s drawn the extreme outside.   He’s obviously n ot one of my top selections, but don’t let a 6 time consecutive winner go off at too long odds.  Certainly there’s a point where he’s got value, right?  And what of Sok Sok and Big Bad Leryobrown?   ‘Leroy gets the "coolest name of the field" vote every time he goes to post (much like Steppenwolfer in my opinion), but he hasn’t won since October.  Sok Sok looks very dangerous here.  In fact, if I had to pick a longshot thief here, that’s my guy.  

So where does that leave me?  Well, I guess it means that I think about 6 horses could win this thing.  Obviously being a Grade 1 winner makes Georgie Boy an attractive selection, plus he should get a nice stalking trip.  I think it comes down to he and In Summation in the stretch in a battle of who-wants-it-more?   I’ll guess that Sok Sok is also making a bid to do battle down the stretch.  Take your pick from these 3.

Now onto the Derby trail:

Not much has changed in my rankings.  Square Eddie I’ve donwgraded  a bit as I need to see more.   Much like last year I’m at a loss as to where to correctly rank the west coasters, and until I see someone really blow me away, I’m going to keep Vineyard Haven at the top of the list.

  1. Vineyard Haven  (still think he would beat ‘em all if the Derby were this weekend)
  2. Old Fashioned (hard not to be impressed with this guy’s efforts.  He’s probably a smarter Derby contender than Vineyard Haven overall since he will be training in the U.S. while V.H. is in Dubai)
  3. Pioneer of the Nile (while the last field he beat may have been a little weak, the horse has been working sensationally and looks like the real deal to me)
  4. Friesan Fire (I’m back and forth with this guy.  One day I really like him, the next I’m not so sure. For now I think he’s a got a real chance, although everything is subject to change)
  5. Breakwater Edison (I’m jumping on his bandwagon despite not having really had a chance to watch him.  We’ll find out more about this guy soon enough)
  6. The Pamplemousse (It’s tough to figoure out where to rank  him.  He’d be higher if the Derby were in Santa Anita)
  7. Square Eddie ( I still like him, and he probably needed that last race, but he needs to show me both better speed figures and good dirt form before I can safely move him up the list at this point).
  8. Beethoven (From here on out the rankings are pretty even.  Ultimately I’m a bit higher on this guy since I cashed  on him last out.  That tends to impart positive associations/memories).
  9. Notonthesamepage (may not have the distance to be a real Derby contender, but did flash a 115 Beyer last out)
  10. Stardom Bound (love this filly, although I don’t think she’ll be pointed to the Derby)

Others I’m watching:  Haynesfield, Chocolate Candy, Big Drama, Midshipman, Munnings, Quality Road, Obligingly, Nicanor, Charitable Man, Flat Out, Free Country, Indygo Mountain, Cribnote, Giant Oak, Danger to Society, Hello Broadway, and Well Positioned.

Best of luck to you all and hope you have a great weekend.  I appreciate all of the support and encouragement as I continue my quest to enter the Guinness Book of World Records as the most sleep deprived father in the world.  :)


Comments : 7 Comments »

Categories : Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Santa Anita

Square Eddie highlights a solid Saturday at Santa Anita

16 01 2009

Saturday racing action at Santa Anita features the cover boy for today’s Daily Racing Form, the three-year-old son of Smart Strike named Square Eddie.  Additionally, we’ve got three graded stakes in the late Pick 4 sequence including the Grade 2 Santa Ynez (race 6), the Grade 3 San Rafael (race 7), and the Grade 2 San Fernando (race 8).  We’ll take a look at each as the betting action figures to be fast and furious. 

If you’ve been playing Santa Anita, or casually paying attention from a distance, you know how hard it’s been to pick anything consistently.  Numerous carryovers in the Pick 6 pool illustrate the difficulty horseplayers have faced.  I’ll be honest, I haven’t done so well lately.  It starts to wear on you after a while, as you panic thinking there is a fundamental flaw you have yet to discover in your handicapping, or that some dark storm cloud has set upon you assuring that you will never pick a winner again.  Obviously the latter is nonsense.  Another way to look at things is with some good old fashioned optimism. After all, if you’ve been getting your teeth kicked in for a sustained period of time, you can bank on one surefire thing;  you are DUE with a capital D!

Race 6: The Grade 2 Santa Ynez (7 Furlongs)

  • #1 Candilejas (M. Garcia/J. Mullins) 15/1
  • #2 Nan (C. Nakatani/C. Dollase) 15/1
  • #4 Spanish Ice (D.R. Flores/C. Dollase) 6/1
  • #5 Empressive Lady (M.C. Baze/J. Mullins) 4/1
  • #6 Turtle Creek Babe (V. Espinoza/R. McAnally) 20/1
  • #7 Deeveetee (P. Husbands/M. Casse) 8/1
  • #8 Evita Argentina (G. Gomez/J. Sadler) 5/2
  • #9 Alpha Kitten (T. Baze/J. Sadler) 9/5*

To me the story of the Santa Ynez is the complete lack of pace on paper.  Things weren’t help when Pinkarella was scratched from the race on Thursday.  The lack of pace will likely hinder one of the morning line favorites, Evita Argentina, or she will have to alter her running style and be a bit closer to whatever pace there is.  So far she’s done all of her running from well off the pace. 

Alpha Kitten and Empressive Lady look to be the ones to beat today.  They’ve each got a hint of versatility and should be either apart of whatever develops or will be close enough to it to make their presence known.  I’ll tell you that Alpha Kitten comes up with more angles to consider, at least from how I handicapped the race, but my gut tells me Alpha Kitten will enjoy the cut back to 7 furlongs from the 1 1/16 miles she attempted last time in the Hollywood Starlet.

A dark horse worth taking a long look at in the post parade is Deeveetee, who when all is said and done is probably the best candidate for becoming the early pace setter.  Note that 3 races back she dueled for the lead against state bred rivals before fading.  Obviously anyone loose on the lead here could be a serious threat to steal the race.  I still prefer Alpha Kitten and Empressive Lady, but I wouldn’t rule Deeveetee out of the mix at all.

Lastly, for your head-scratching angle of the day, note that fringe contender Turtle Creek Babe once defeated the mighty Stardom Bound last July.  Since then things haven’t been pretty, but it’s worth noting that many of the top competitors in this race have been soundly defeated by Stardom Bound.  I’m just sayin’ .

Selections: 9/5/7/8

 

Race 7: The Grade 3 San Rafael (1 Mile)

  • #1 The Pamplemousse (A. Solis/J. Canini) 4/1
  • #2 Fiddlers Afleet (M.C. Baze/J. O’Hara) 6/1
  • #3 Brother Keith (G. Gomez/R. Frankel) 5/1
  • #4 Ryehill Dreamer (M.E. Smith/J. Shirreffs) 12/1
  • #5 Papa Clem (T. Baze/G.Stute) 8/1
  • #6 Square Eddie (R. Bejarano/D. O’Niell) 8/5*
  • #7 Charlie’s Moment (J. Rosario/W.Solis) 10/1
  • #8 Feisty Suances (D. R. Flores/D. Vienna) 8/1

The San Rafael is probably the race most people are focusing on, and rightfully so.  It’s our first chance to take a look at Square Eddie in 2009, the colt some have referred to as “baby Curlin.”  We should probably temper the expectations that such associations create by remembering that ‘Eddie has yet to break the 90′s from a Beyer standpoint, and is returning from over 2 full months on the shelf.  While his workouts haven’t exactly been scintillating, it is worth remembering that his 2nd place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to Midshipman over the same course was good enough to defeat this field.  A repeat of that performance likely makes this race academic. 

That being said, there are some very game competitors here that figure to make him earn it and are capable of stealing the race if the favorite shows up a bit rusty.  Let’s start with The Pamplemousse.  The $150,000 purchase for the Julio Canini barn has run 3 very strong races at the maiden special weight level.  He finally popped his cherry last out racking up an 89 Beyer; equal to the figure earned by Square Eddie in the  BC Juvenile.  Beyond that, he really seemed to enjoy the added distance last out going 1 1/16 miles, so today’s mile journey shouldn’t be a concern at all.   This could be any kind of horse and he’s got a legit shot to become one of (if not the) top male 3-year-olds on the circuit.  He’s a real player here.

Moving to the 4 hole, we’ve got the always dangers John Shirreffs (of Zenyatta, Tiago, and Giacomo fame) teaming up once again with his ace, jockey Michael E. Smith, on what appears to be a very interesting Euro-shipper in Ryehill Dreamer.  I’ll be honest, I”m not very good at figuring out how the Euros will run first time out, but memories of invaders like Goldikova and Raven’s Pass are still fresh in my mind, so I think you’ve got to consider him a player as well.  Now take a look deeper into his form.  He’s been facing some decent company, and has run well in all but one race where the comments indicate he was bumped 2 furlongs from home.  Look out – this guy may be live and at a very large price (as evidenced by the 12/1 morning line value).  Want another angle?  Check out that last morning move in his workout line; 4 furlongs over the Hollywood cushion in :47.  I’d say he’s ready to run.

Lastly, you’ve got the Johar offspring Brother Keith for trainer Bobby Frankel.  He’s obviously stepping up in class big time to jump from maiden to Grade 3, but he seemingly won for fun last out and has also been working well.  If you happen to pick up a copy of the Saturday DRF, make sure you check out Brad Free’s article that makes some interesting points about Johar offspring.  Obviously I’m against plagarism, so I won’t steal any of  his thunder here.  There’s also one other jaw dropping surprise (at least for me) in the same article concerning a horse named Jimmy Two Times, but that’s a story for another time.  Like I said, with the edition still fresh on the newsstand, it would be wrong to say anything more.  Suffice to say it’s an entertaining read and there’s enough in the article to take any Johar offspring seriously.

I still like Square Eddie here, and as I’m a pretty big fan of the Shirreffs/Smith combination I’ll make Ryehill Dreamer my second choice followed by The Pamplemousse.  Know this though, I would NOT feel comfortable taking a stand and making Square Eddie a single – partly because he has yet to demonstrate he is head and shoulders above this field and partly because chalk has been routinely trounced at Santa Anita thus far this year.  Some of you may be braver than I…I just feel it’s my duty to caution you while I can. 

Selections: 6/4/1/3

 

Race 8: The Grade 2 San Fernando (1 1/16 Miles)

  • #1 Muny (D. R. Flores/M. Puype) 8/1
  • #2 Wishful Tomcat (J. Rosario/R. Frankel) 8/1
  • #3 Cherokee Artist (J. Valdivia/G. Motion) 20/1
  • #5 Booted (V. Espinoza/R. Mandella) 8/1
  • #6 Nownownow (J. Talamo/P. Biancone) 12/1
  • #7 Madeo (M.E. Smith/J. Shirreffs) 3/1*
  • #8 El Gato Malo (C. Nakatani/C. Dollase) 6/1
  • #9 Silver Sword (M.C. Baze/D.O’Neill) 30/1
  • #10 Slew’s Tiznow (R. Bejarano/D.O’Neill) 7/2
  • #11 Tres Borrachos (T.Baze/B. Greely) 12/1
  • #12 Dakota Phone (G. Gomez/J. Hollendorfer) 8/1

By far the most challenging race to handicap in the stakes sequence at Santa Anita is the 57th running of the Grade 2 San Fernando.  Several big name competitors line up, including one time 2008 Kentucky Derby hopeful El Gato Malo, and stakes winners Muny, Slew’s Tiznow, and Tres Borrachos (who finished 9th in the 2008 Preakness).

When I first picked up the advance copy of the DRF, I was overjoyed to see Muny listed as 6/1.  I knew it wouldn’t be that good, but it’s more than disappointing to see him instead listed as the morning line favorite at 3/1.  Granted, if you like the horse, 3/1 really isn’t a bad price to eat chalk on.  It’s actually about as good as you can do when favoritism is concerned.  Still, the less than confident odds denote just how difficult this race came up.

Muny and Wishful Tomcat both look like horses that should show speed from the inside, although Muny does possess a hint of tactical ability as evidenced by his style in his initial two maiden efforts.  He just about took a strong field including Cowboy Cal and Court Vision to task in the Hollywood Derby before fading to 5th late.  That was at 1 1/4 miles, and today he cuts back to 1 1/16.   Even better, he’s been able to hold off Madeo in the past, and outside of Wishful Tomcat should not be too hardly pressed today.  Based on the odds, I’ll probably make him (Muny) my top play.

Don’t get me wrong, I love Madeo and El Gato Malo here, so if you’re playing the exotics, I’d probably spread fairly deep on this one.  Note that Madeo hasn’t been coming from as far off the pace in his synthetic tries as he has on turf, so it would be wrong to discount him as a dead late closer here.  I’d amost guarantee that he makes his presence felt here.

El Gato Malo was once my favorite 3-year-old on the California circuit last year, but he ran into some distance limitations trying to go 1 1/8 miles.  Anywhere from a mile to a mile and a sixteenth is probably his distance limit.  My guess though, is that he’ll probably leave himself more to do than Madeo will, which makes Madeo the stronger play.

Of course, you can never count a Tiznow colt out of a street fight, and to ignore the impressive 102 Beyer figure of Slew’s Tiznow would be a total mistake.  I have some concerns about how he classes up against some of these runners, but he should get a nice ride from jockey Rafael Bejarano and if you toss his effort on Breeders’ Cup weekend in the “Pro Ride” (dirt) Mile, then he clearly fits with these.

Two x-factors in the race may be Booted and  Tres Borrachos.  With “three drunks” (Tres Borrachos), you never quite know who will show up.  Early last summer he sort of peeked, and since then has not hit the board.  He’s been off since October though, and while he likely needs a race, he appears to have been working very well in the mornings.  I would not be shocked if he hit the board at 12/1. 

Booted once almost gave me a heart attack, so I’ll never forget him.  It was July 4, 2007, and I was alive in the late Pick 4 at Hollywood singled to Salute the Sarge in the 7th race.  For much of the early going, it looked like Booted was going to be a major player, then he suddenly backed out of the race.  According to the “closer look” comments in the DRF, the horse was injured that day (as well as on another occasion).  He’s a tough one to figure out definitively, but it’s hard to argue with the recent form coming off back to back wins.

Selections: 1/7/8/10

As always, best of luck to all and make sure to check for late changes and scratches.  It’s brutally cold here on the East Coast, so I’ll likely be inside with the newborn all weekend.  I plan on having some Sunday picks up as well, but for what it’s worth I’m going for the I-95 Super Bowl in the AFC/NFC championship game.  Ravens vs Eagles.  It’ll be just like ’83 when the Orioles and Phillies banged heads.  And you know what?  The outcome would be the same – a Baltimore victory.  No doubt the Steelers will have something to say about that when all is said and done, and I must say that as a devoted St. Louis Rams fan, I know as well as anyone that you NEVER count Kurt Warner out of a fight.  I just can’t publicly pick the Cardinals to go to the Super Bowl.  Years of Cardinals awfulness could be clouding my judgement though.

If you’re looking for anything else to bide the time away this bitter cold weekend, be sure to check out the photo contest we have going over at the new TBA homepage.


Comments : 10 Comments »
Tags: , , , ,
Categories : Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail, Santa Anita, Square Eddie

Saturday Selections

9 01 2009

Nothing stops the procession of progress around here at The Aspiring Horseplayer, not even the arrival of a new son.  That’s right, in case you somehow missed it, my second little guy was born last Saturday at the hospital in Gettysburg.  He’s got good turf pedigree and should round out into one of the better juveniles in a couple of years.  Actually, I’m hoping he’s not affiliated with anything “juvenile” as that conjures up images of detention centers and correctional facilities.  Let’s hope that’s a path this boy can avoid.

Beyond that excitement, there’s obviously NFL playoff fever in the air.  I’ll just come right out and say that on Divisional Weekend I like the Panthers, Eagles, Ravens, and Chargers.  Now that football is out of the way, let’s dive into our sport of choice; thoroughbred horse racing, and see if we can’t pick some winners for the Lecomte, the San Pasqual, and a very interesting Allowance race at Gulfstream Park featuring two of the more highly regarded 3-year-olds in the land.

The Grade 3 Lecomte – Fair Grounds (Race 9) – 1 Mile (Dirt)

  • #1 Friesan FIre (5/1)
  • #2 Au Moon (8/1)
  • #3 Citizen (20/1)
  • #4 Patena (4/1)
  • #5 Big Push (8/1)
  • #6 Dynamic Force (10/1)
  • #7 Professor Z (6/1)
  • #8 Uno Mass (5/1)
  • #9 Indygo Mountain (3/1*)

Looking over the field of the Lecomte, we’ve got some speed signed on here with Patena breaking from the 4 hole, Big Push from post 5, and the Steve Asmussen runner Professor Z from post 7.  That should set things up nicely for one of the stalkers, namely either Indygo Mountain or Uno Mass.

Of those two, I prefer the other Asmussen entry, Uno Mass, by the slimmest of margins.  The son of Macho Uno has not only borken his maiden, but also defeated the next level allowance foes, something that Indygo Mountain has not achieved yet.  All things considered I think these two colts are very close in terms of talent, so it all comes down to whether or not you like 3/1 on the extreme outside, or 5/1 just to his inside.  I’ll probably play the odds here. 

There are a couple of others in here to keep your eye on if shooting for the $.10 superfecta (fast becoming one of my favorite bets in the game; to the point that I’m almost disgusted when it’s not offered on a betting program…every race should have a $.10 super!!!).  Au Moon won for fun last out against Special Weight competition and could be any kind of horse.  He accomplished that from the 10 hole last out and should appreciate being moved inside today.  Friesan Fire is also very intriguing with that combination of jockey Gabriel Saez and trainer Larry Jones (not to mention the horse, who appears to be in sharp form). 

I’ll play Uno Mass on top with Indygo Mountain (note: I keep wanting to type “hello, my name is Indygo Mountain, you killed my father, prepare to die!!!” whenever I write his name), Professor Z, and Friesan Fire in place.  I’ll add in Au Moon and Patena for show, and finally I’ll add Big Push for 4th:

8/1,7,9/1,2,4,7,9/1,2,4,5,7,9 = $4.80

 

Gulfstream Park  Alw 42000N$Y (7 Furlongs – Dirt)

  • #1 Summerton (12/1)
  • #2 Belo Sorte (20/1)
  • #3 Two Brash (12/1)
  • #4 Quality Road (5/2*)
  • #5 Obligingly (3/1)
  • #6 Theregoesjojo (6/1)
  • #7 B B’s Song (20/1)
  • #8 Meshuga (30/1)
  • #9 Monk’s Creek (8/1)
  • #10 Tar Beach (12/1)
  • #11 Awesome Rythm (12/1)
  • #12 Jet Set Vinny (8/1)

This very well could be the race of the day.  By far it’s the race I’m most excited about as Saturday draws near.  Two of the most highly touted 3-year-olds in the land, Quality Road and Obligingly, will knock heads in this deceptively strong conditional allowance race and we may get our first look at who is a Derby contender and who is a pretender when all is said and done.  Both colts have surpassed the 100 Beyer figure threshold as 2-year-olds.  Quality Road is the one thought to have the brighter future, but today may be Obligingly’s day to shine.

Quality Road posted a 101 figure breaking from the 10 hole in his debut at Aqueduct last November.  Since then he’s been throwing bullets at Palm Meadows and would appear to be primed and loaded for trainer James Jerkens.  Obligingly is an Officer colt that jumped from a 49 Beyer in his debut to an impressive 100 at Churchill in an 11 length win on December 7. 

Take your pick from these two, but I can’t see anyone else beating them.  I’ll probably play odds again here, if I even play (the $.10 Superfecta is calling me to).  This is one of those races I just want to see both colts come back well from after moving forward in the afternoon.  Hopefully we get that.  All things being equal, at the tricky 7 furlong distance, I’ll take Obligingly.  It won’t bother me at all if Quality Road is as good as advertised and he beats me.  We’ll keep the play cheap.

5/4,9,12/1,4,9,12/1,3,4,9,11,12 = $3.60

 

The Grade 2 San Pasqual Handicap – Santa Anita (Race 8) – 1 1/16 Miles (Pro Ride)

  • #1 Mostacolli Mort
  • #2 Marchfield
  • #3 Informed
  • #4 Cowboy Cal
  • #5 Noble Court
  • #6 Past the Point
  • #7 Well Armed
  • #8 Magnum
  • #9 Blue Exit
  • #10 Ball Four
  • #11 Racketeer
  • #12 Slew’s Tizzy

We end up the day in the feature at Santa Anita, the 72nd running of the Grade 2 San Pasqual Handicap.   Hopefully any of you playing the Santa Anita card are still alive in the enormous Pick 6 carryover pool available on Saturday.  I don’t quite have the cash flow to take an honest stab into that at the moment.  The carryover itself illustrates one small problem for handicappers; when to have the courage to stand on favorites.  They haven’t been winning as often as usual as the Pro Ride has adapted to it’s first full winter of use. 

Still, I think it’s going to take a top notch effort from someone to take down the favorite, Well Armed, here.   We’ve seen Well Armed bang heads with Curlin and Go Between in the past.  To me he’s clearly the best horse on paper once you draw a line through the effort last out in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (aka “Synthetic Mile”).

That being said, there are some attractive options if you feel like taking a stab.  For starters, one of my favorite horses to play in such angles is Cowboy Cal.  Some of you may remember I picked him in the Hollywood Derby and he finished less than a length behind Court Vision (I still feel like he could’ve won that one).  I really like his recent form, and if he were to put it all together today, he’d certainly have a chance. 

Another to keep an eye on is the often disrespected Past the Point.  I say “often disrespected” because he isn’t known for being a “winner” and was at one point, along with the late Wanderin Boy, one of the horses those who were not fans of Curlin would use to point out the weakness of races like the Woodward.  What Past the Point has shown me since then is that he isn’t a fluke.  He belongs in this kind of race.  I’m not sure he can ever beat the likes of Well Armed, but he can certainly hit the board consistently.  I’d expect him to give a pretty good account of himself when all is said an done.

Another horse to consider here is Slew’s Tizzy breaking from the extreme outside.  For those that don’t know, I have a confirmed fetish for playing the offspring of Tiznow.  It’s just something I’ve noticed over the years.  They do pretty well for me when I play them, and when I don’t play them (cough, Da’ Tara, cough), they absolutely burn me alive.  He’s another that if you draw a line through is effort on Breeders’ Cup weekend makes a lot of sense here, although that outside post could be an issue.  At least, if nothing else, it should assure a clean break.

I’ll play the chalk on top, with Past the  Point, Cowboy Cal, and Slew’s Tizzy in place.  I’ll add in Ball Four for show, and then toss in Mostacolli Mort and the other Tiznow colt (Informed) and Noble Court for the bottom of the superfecta:

7/4,6,12/4,6,10,12/1,3,4,5,6,10,12 = $4.50

As always, best of luck to all and be sure to check for late changes/scratches – not to mention weather this time of year.


Comments : 7 Comments »
Tags: , , , , , , ,
Categories : Fair Grounds, Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail, Santa Anita

Haynesfield the clear favorite in the Count Fleet

2 01 2009

Haynesfield, a 3-year-old son of champion sprinter Speightstown, looks to make his name known on the 2009 Kentucky Derby trail in a 7 horse edition of the Count Fleet at Aqueduct on Saturday.  The Steve Asmussen trainee turned heads with his brilliant run in the Damon Runyon earlier this month.  That win earned him a 101 Beyer figure, always sure to attract the attention of those looking for the next serious Derby contender.  Is Haynesfield that kind of horse?  We’ll find out soon enough.  The field sets up like this:

  • #1 Pitched Perfectly (P. Morales/G. Contessa) 7/2
  • #1A Bad Action (E. Castro/G. Contessa) 7/2
  • #2 Aswaaq (J. Sanchez/K. McLaughlin) 4/1
  • #3 Jess Not Jessie (C. Hill/L. Rice) 10/1
  • #4 Haynesfield (R. Dominguez/S. Asmussen) 8/5*
  • #5 Mike From Queens (R. Maragh/B. Levine) 9/2
  • #6 Smart Bid (J. Rose/G. Motion) 8/1

The way the Count Fleet sets up, I’m not thinking Haynesfield will be on the lead.  Instead, I’d expect a change in styles and more of a stalking trip.  I say this because three of the other entries in the race; Pitched Perfectly, Aswaap, and Mike From Queens all have shown early speed before.  My guess is that Asmussen will want to see if Haynesfield can stalk when stretching out over a longer distance of ground.

Clearly  Haynesfield is the standout from a class and Beyer figure perspective.  I can’t see much sense in betting against him, unless you really like one of the other runners.  Trying to determine who the 2nd best horse of the field may be is a bit more challenging.

Pitched Perfectly and Aswaaq hit the wire within a neck of each other last out.  It’s anyone’s guess between these two.  I tend to favor Pitched Perfectly, although I’d favor the trainer of Aswaaq, Kiaran McLaughlin. The horse I really expect to run a big one though is Mike From Queens.  He’s in the sharpest recent form of the rest of the field.

I’d play Haynesfield on top with Mike From Queens in place, with Pitched Perfectly, Aswaaq, and Jess Not Jesse in show.

4/5/1,2,3 ($3)

Looking over the rest of the card, I think there’s a pick 4 here that’s very playable for even those with smaller budgets.  The assumption, of course, will be that Haynesfield shows up and does his part as a free square (albeit one without any value) in the 8th race (3rd leg).   Looking at the first leg of the Pick 4 sequence, the 6th, there appears to be another free square potential with Toulouse Lautrec, a runner who managed a 94 Beyer in her debut chasing Quality Road, 5 lengths clear of the 3rd place finisher. 

Assuming then that we have 2 “free squares” to play with, my recommendation would be to spread a bit in race 7, and especially in race 9.   In race 7  I’d cover Fort Drum, Dr. W, and Strummer (5,9,11).  In race 9 I’d go much deeper and cover I’mthequeenofqueens, Driven by Energy, Flying Heat, For Love Alone, Griffen Avenue, and Hooked on Money.  Luckily, the first two are a coupled entry.

6/5,9,11/4/1,4,6,8,10 ($15)

As always, best of luck to everyone and be sure to check for changes and/or scratches.


Comments : 7 Comments »

Categories : Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Derby Trail

New Year’s Selections

1 01 2009

A new year has dawned, and with it the possibility of changed fortunes and sustained good luck.  To be honest, I’ll probably spend most of the day watching bowl games (it’s a parade of SEC teams from here on out), but how could a horseplayer resist the urge to not start of the year with a little action today?  I’ve consulted the seers.  I’ve reviewed the omens.  They’re either telling me to single Uffizi in the early Pick 4 at Santa Anita, or to invade Russia with a large army…I’m guessing it’s the former rather than the latter.

The feature today at Santa Anita is the Grade 3 El Conejo, which comes up as the third race on the card and therefore part of the early Pick 4 sequence.  So be it. Looking at the race on paper, we’ve only got 5 entries for the 5 1/2 furlong sprint, and most of them seem to like to be on or very near the lead.  Right off the bat you can see that Machismo and It’s in God’s Hands seemingly have to be on the lead to win.

Things get a bit different as we move down to Johnny Eves and Black Seventeen.  He stalked in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint and the Vosburgh, a style that would suit him well here.  Still, on synthetics he does seem to be the type that wants to be part of the early action at least pressing the pace.  I suspect he’ll have a big chance here today, but ultimately I’ll side against him for the win.

Johny Eves is another who can seemingly duel or stalk.  He’s run some good races over the Santa Anita Pro Ride, and has posted back to back Beyer’s of 100 or more.  Add to that the fact that Super Man himself, Garrett Gomez, is piloting Johnny Eves and anything is possible.

My selection, however, is the obvious play of In Summation breaking from the outside.  He’s the clear “off-the-pace” type of the field, has thrived over the Pro Ride, and is the only horse of the field to sport a win (in his case 3 of them) at  today’s shortened sprint distance of 5 1/2 furlongs.  Oh yes, and he finished a game 4th in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint behind Midnight Lute, Fatal Bullet, and Street Boss, any of whom would be obvious favorites against this field.

The trouble is that there’s no value on In Summation (listed as 7/5 on the morning line), and no hope of any good vertical betting action by nature of the reduced field size of just 5 horses.  You know what that means…we’ve got to go horizontal to look for a score – which logically points to the Pick 4.

I’d spread pretty deep in the first legs of the pick 4.  The second race in particular is probably your best bet for anything approaching an exciting price.  The field sizes simply aren’t very big.  We’re talking field sizes of 6,7,5, and 7 before any race day scratches.  Not exactly the best Pick 4 we’ve ever played.  

In the first leg I’ll cover 4 horses; Cherie’s Dream (9/2), Frangipanni (7/2), Mark Set Go (3/1), and Kula Girl (2/1*).  I like Kula Girl the best here and think she may wire the field in the opener.  Mark Set Go is the one I”m really interested in though switching from turf to synthetics.  I’ve got a feeling she’ll be coming home well late.  Cherie’s Dream and Frangipanni I had a notch below these two, but since the end of the ticket is so chalky I figured I might as well take stabs on them and hope for the best.

Moving to the second leg (race 2), we have some interesting choices.  Auntgrace is the obvious play to me at 5/2, 2nd choice on the morning line.  She’s dropping from $52k company for the Craig Dollase barn that has done serious damage in 2nd start situations (32%).   She faced off against Alpha Kitten and Carson’s Gold last time out, and I’d easily single either of them against this field.  Dancing Erin flashed speed and has to be considered, as do the first time starters Slammin Kat and Broken Silence.  I really wanted to find a way to use Misstrailcityzone and Dothetwist, since they have better odds, but ultimately left them off the ticket.

We’ve already talked about the feature, where I’ll single In Summation, so now we’ll move onto the 4th and final leg of the Pick 4.  I think you can safely single here as well as the favorite, Uffizi, looks very tough to knock off here.  He’s dropping from the $70k level  and has been freshened for trainer Mike Mitchell.   He just looks like the field standout.  I”m a bit worried about 3 horses; namely Fire Wood (with Joel Rosario), Parko (with Martin Pedroza), and Guts with Victor Espinoza, but in my heart of hearts I think those guys are running for place and show when this one is over.

Pick 4:

1,2,4,6/2,3,6,7/5/4 

Total Cost $16

As always, best of luck to you and Happy New Year!

Oh yes, and as for the bowl games today?  I like South Carolina in the Outback Bowl, Georgia in the Capital One Bowl,  Clemson in the Gator Bowl, USC in the Rose Bowl, and Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl.


Comments : 3 Comments »

Categories : Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Santa Anita


Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.