The Pamplemousse looks to “Wow” in the Sham

27 02 2009

You knew it would simply be impossible for me to resist a gratuitous Sham Wow reference when covering Saturday’s 9th running of the Grade 3 Sham at Santa Anita.  Twelve runners have gathered for the Sham to take on trainer Julio Canani’s Kentucky Derby hopeful, including a likely late shipper from the east in Todd Pletcher’s colt Take the Points.  The field for the Sham sets up like this:

Past Performances for the Sham are available here

  1. Hi Flyin Indy (A. Quinonez/E. Harty) 30/1
  2. Smart Bid (R. Bejarano/G. Motion) 8/1
  3. Tiz True (A. Gryder/ D. Hofmans) 30/1
  4. Lifeline SCRATCHED
  5. The Pamplemousse (A. Solis/J. Canani) 9/5*
  6. Balfour Park (B. Blank/C. Lewis) 30/1
  7. Mr. Hot Stuff (C. Nakatani/E. Harty) 7/2
  8. Bourbon Bay (J. Rosario/N. Drysdale) 15/1
  9. Ventana (J. Rios/B. Baffert) 15/1
  10.  Mark S the Cooler (J. Talamo/D. O’Neill) 15/1
  11.  Unbridled Roman (M. Smith/ C. Paasch) 12/1
  12.  Take the Points (G. Gomez/ T. Pletcher) 3/1

The Pamplemousse ran huge last time out after getting the perfect trip in the San Rafael (G3) on 1/17.   The son of Kafwain (Cherokee Run) has improved on the Beyer scale in each of his 4 lifetime races.  He’ll be stretching out an extra furlong today in the 1 1/8 mile Sham, but also owns a victory at 1 1/16 miles, so distance would not seem to be a concern.  A more pressing question might be what kind of pace scenario the grapefruit (in case you’ve ever wondered what “Pamplemousse” means) gets on Saturday.  Regardless, he’s clearly the horse to beat and is definitely eligible of another gate to wire romp if he gets loose on the lead.

The obvious rival will be the recent maiden graduate and full brother to Colonel John, the Eoin Harty trained Mr. Hot Stuff.  After struggling a bit in his first four races, he seemingly put it all together last out against obviously softer competition.  He’ll get the acid test today as he moves up to face tougher, although it’s not like this field is loaded with stakes winners.   Only the favorite can lay claim to that honor.  Besides The Pamplemousse, the only runners in the field with victories outside of the maiden ranks are Smart Bid and Take the Points.   Obviously he’s a thread if he runs back to his last Beyer figure. 

Looking over the rest of the field, Smart Bid is a horse I think will love the distance of the Sham, but it’s a bit of an unknown how he’ll take to the Pro Ride surface.  If you’re looking for a positive sign on his otherwise forgettable debut over synthetics last July, note that at least he was moving decently late, as indicated by the “mild rally” note in his comment line.  He’s coming off back to back wins, is trained by one of my favorites in Graham Motion, and obviously shares sires with a certain chestnut colt you might say I’m somewhat endeared to.  All of that and 8/1 make him a very attractive play underneath.

Take the Points is a horse who looks like a major threat on paper, but I’m probably going to pass at odds anything like 3/1.  Don’t get me wrong, I think this is a nice colt and he can definitely hit the board;  I’m just not fond of horses shipping from east to west.  Especially when they don’t have any workouts posted on the surface.  It’s a crap-shoot, and the odds to me don’t favor the risk/reward potential. 

Ventana is a runner who might be worth giving another look.  He was favored last out on the morning line in the San Vicente, something that many horseplayers scoffed at.  He ran 4th that day, but was only beaten 2 1/4 lengths, and a couple of the horses in that race (namely the winning filly Evita Argentina and runner up Leedstheway) are horses who should do well this year.  He offered no value in the San Vicente as chalk, but now the opposite is true as he’s 15/1 on the morning line.  I think when all is said and done he is a classier horse than many of the runners in here, so I’ll be using him underneath as well.

Bourbon Bay is another I think could be sneaky in here at long odds.  While his previous running has been on the grass for trainer Neil Drysdale, I like that he’s improved with each start.  Another move forward puts him right in contention in this field.   He handled stakes company rather well last November in the Generous (G3) at Hollywood.  Still, he’s been off for essentially 3 months, so his prospects at winning are rather slim.   As an underneath play on the exotics he should offer some value though. 

I’ll eat chalk here and play The Pamplemousse for the win.  I don’t expect very good odds on him though, so we’ll likely pass on the win bet and focus instead on the 10 cent Superfecta.   Ill use Smart Bid, Mr. Hot Stuff, and Ventana in place.  Add to them Bourbon Bay and Take the Points for show.  I’ll toss in Unbridled Roman and Mark S the Cooler for 4th.

Selections:

$.10 Superfecta: 5/2,7,9/2,7,8,9,12/2,7,8,9,10,11,12 ($6.00)


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail, Santa Anita

Fountain of Youth a race of intrigue

27 02 2009

In the 16th century, Spanish explorer and conquistador Ponce de Leon is rumored to have searched high and wide for the mythical Fountain of Youth in order to cure his natural aging.  He never did find it.  Trying to decipher Saturday’s 63rd running of the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park might be just as difficult a proposition.  We’ve got an incredibly deep field of talented and up-and-coming 3-year-old colts all trying to stamp there name on the Kentucky Derby Trail.  Twelve horses are entered (although one is likely shipping west for the day’s other feature, the Sham at Santa Anita).  The field sets up like this:

Past Performances for the G2 Fountain of Youth are available here

  1. Be Cee Cee (C. Velasquez/E. Plesa Jr.) 30/1
  2. Theregoesjojo (K. Desormeaux/ K. McPeek) 15/1
  3. Notonthesamepage (E. Trujillo/W. Ward) 4/1
  4. Take the Points (C. Decarlo/T. Pletcher) 10/1
  5. Jack Spratt (R. Douglas/M. Maker) 20/1
  6. Rocketing Returns (J. Lezcano/N. Zito) 15/1
  7. Beethoven (C. Borel/J. Ward Jr.) 12/1
  8. Break Water Edison (E. Coa/J. Kimmel) 15/1
  9. Capt. Candyman Can (J. Leparoux/I. Wilkes) 5/1
  10.  Taqarub (A. Garcia/K. McLaughlin) 6/1
  11.  Quality Road (J. Velazquez Jr./ J. Jerkens) 8/1
  12.  This Ones for Phil (E. Prado/R. Dutrow) 3/1*

Most of the attention in this race will likely be focused on what I refer to as the “Beyer freaks.”  That probably doesn’t need an explanation from most horseplayers.  Obviously this means “Phil” and “Not”.  If they run anything like those speed figures here, this race won’t be much of a mystery at all. 

The trouble with just blindly taking “Not” , who has the better post position (in theory) of the two is that he is likely to be involved in what appears to be a fairly hotly contested early pace in this race.   You get the feeling he is the speed, but Quality Road and Taqarub would appear to have something to say about that.  He also has the look of a sprinter when going over his running lines.  Sure he can burn ‘em at 6 furlongs and shorter, but can he do it going 8?  I’d say at 4/1 you make him prove it first.

“Phil” presents an altogether different problem in that he’s hung wide in the 12 hole.  Of course, we are talking trainer Rick Dutrow here – the man who got Big Brown to the winner’s circle in post 12 of the Florida Derby last year, and then from post 20 in the Kentucky Derby. I actually think the outside provides “Phil” with a clean break, which is something he’ll need trying to save some ground early and then stalking the hot pace.  The danger for him is getting cooked if the fractions are too hot up front.   That being said, he seems the proverbial bounce candidate, and at 3/1 in a field with as many options as this, he does warrant taking a chance against.   Respect him for sure, but don’t be paralyzed with fear over his Beyers. 

Ultimately this race does set up for a horse coming from off the pace.  The question for me is “how far off the pace?”  Let’s say Phil were to get burned up front early on.  Then what?   Well, 3 horses who could benefit are Capt. Candyman Can (5/1), Beethoven (12/1), and Break Water Edison (15/1).  Those are some decent prices, especially when you consider that two races back Beethoven beat Capt. Candyman Can.  Assuming we do get the expected pace scenario up front, and that we’re playing on the idea that to beat the favorite (“Phil”), we’d have to hope he gets a little tired  trying to keep up with the early pace, that really sets things up for Beethoven and Break Water Edison.

I know Beethoven is a popular upset pick form many handicappers, so I’m obviously not the only one seeing him with a huge chance here.  The race has to fall into his lap though as I don’t think that with all things being equal he can quite outrun the main rivals today.  

Breakwater Edison is my longshot bomber for the race.  Two months ago this guy might have been favored here.  Now he’s 15/1.  All he’s done in between is had one horrible trip.  We’ve all seen this before.  Is that last trip the “real” Break Water Edison, or were his runs in the end of his 2-year-old campaign more formful?  He was definitely facing (at least at that stage in their development) better when he faced off against Vineyard Haven, Cribnote, and Munnings on back to back occasions.  He’s Lemon Drop, so you know he likes all the extra ground (and experience) he can get.   There’s a lot to like about this guy at 15/1 is all I’m saying.  You can’t always come up with ways why a 15/1 can win a race like this, so being able to foresee him closing late into a hot early pace makes me think this guy could be a player here.

Quality Road and Taqarub look like very good horses, but they’d be a lot more appealing to me if they were the only speed in this race.  It seems to me that to win they are going to have to show they can relax a bit stretching out, which might be asking just a tad too much against this rather salty competition.

Honestly there’s a million ways you could go with this one.  I’m going bombing with my picks.  I’m playing Beethoven to win for $20, and putting him on top of my 10 cent Superfecta.  I’ll probably use “Phil”, Break Water Edison, and Capt. Candyman Can in second.   I like Theregoesjojo enough to add him in third, and Bee Cee Cee seems to have a tendency to wind up hitting the board as well.  I’ll add in Quality Road and “Not” for the bottom of the ticket.

Selections:

  • $20 Win:  #7 Beethoven
  • $.10 Superfecta: 7/8,9,12/1,2,8,9,12/1,2,3,8,9,11,12 ($6.00)

Best of luck to all. You wont’ get any argument out of me if you play “Phil” or the Capt. as the scenarios where they could win are just as likely (if not more).   Whatever you do, make sure you watch this one if you can as it looks like the best Derby prep that we’ve had thus far…at least on paper.


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Categories : Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail

Dunkirk and Imperial Council generating some buzz

22 02 2009

It’s nothing new, really.  Whereas in days of yore the only way a colt surged forward along the road to the Kentucky Derby was with a solid foundation as a 2 year-old and a campaign of steady, distance increasing races as an early 3-year-old, the trend lately has been for instant sensations.  We saw this last year with Big Brown (although technically he had raced as a 2-year-old, albeit briefly), and we saw this 2 years-ago with Curlin.  Could it be happening once again? 

Two colts have garnered a great deal of attention since winning impressively at the Allowance level in the last few weeks as they attempt to earn there way into the starting field of the 2009 Kentucky Derby the first Saturday in May.  Dunkirk and Imperial Council have made many take notice and now have folks questioning whether they will be able to shake up the prep fields they are pointed towards.

Both horses (Dunkirk and Imperial Council) have martial sounding names, which is an added bonus for a military history buff like me.  As Dunkirk was historically the savior of the British Expeditionary Force (BEF) in the dark days of early World War 2, might Dunkirk the colt be the savior of perennial Triple Crown hopeful Todd Pletcher?   Typically Pletcher has any number of runners pointing for the roses, but this year his stable didn’t seem to have as many legit contenders.  Then, out of seemingly nowhere, WHAM – here’s Dunkirk.  I’m reminded of the film “A Bridge Too Far” where Michael Caine’s character (in charge of the British armored XXX Corps) discusses the positives of arriving just in time, like the cavalry showing up in the nick of time, rather than earlier than expected.  “On Shed-dule” is how he puts it.  Yes indeed – it would appear Dunkirk hath arrived “on shed-dule” for Todd Pletcher.

Dunkirk throttles the field in his Allowance victory at Gulfstream Park 2/19/09.

Dunkirk’s allowance victory at Gulfstream Park on 2/19 added yet another grey colt to the equation for the Kentucky Derby.   The $3.7 million purchase has a solid pedigree being sired by Unbridled’s Song and out of the  Kentucky Oaks winning mare Secret Status.   He’s trained by Todd Pletcher and was piloted by Garrett Gomez during his allowance romp.  It remains to be seen if Gomez will retain the mount next out in the Grade 1 Florida Derby on 3/28/09, or if jockey Edgar Prado will take the mount.  Prado happened to be on a rival horse for trainer Rick Dutrow during Dunkirk’s recent victory. 

Looking at the run, I thought it was visually impressive.  He takes some time to get going, but once he does he puts away the competition with the class expected of a horse who will be a Grade 1 contender.  The knock on him will be that he is lightly raced (I’ll always think of Curlin when I hear that), and that he lacks the “foundation”  that racing as a 2-year-old has seemingly provided in the past.  If you ask me though, the times are clearly changing.  If he shows up and pulls a Big Brown in the Florida Derby, this will be your Derby horse.  If he doesn’t, well than it’s back to the drawing board.  Just to keep things honest though, it’s wise to remember that the field in his allowance victory was questionable (I’m honestly not familiar with any of them at this point in time), and the final time of 1:50.15, while good, could be improved upon.  Of course, if you’ve only got 2 races under your belt, the sky’s the limit, right?   The best thing I like about this guy?  He’s not a front runner, and he seems likely to be able to relax until the real running begins. 

Imperial Council wins Gulfstream allowance on 2/14/09

The other colt that is generating a healthy dose of buzz is Imperial Council.  The lightly raced Empire Maker colt (huge hat tip to Mike from Horse Racing Free Picks who is by far the biggest fan of Empire Maker offspring I know…so much so that whenever I think of them I instantly connect them with him) turned in a whopper as well last week when he blazed through allowance competition at Gulfstream.  He’s now pointing to the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on 3/7/09 where he’ll face off against Haynesfield, Mr. Fantasy, and possibly Danger to Society.  Trainer Shug McGaughey is quoted in bloodhorse as wanting to move the colt north so that he can continue to stretch him out distance wise, as opposed to facing off in the condensed 1-mile distance of Fountain of Youth. 

My gut tells me that while sending him up to New York is definitely the right thing to do to determine if he’s a legitimate Derby contender, I have a feeling the major NY preps are going to be a lot more wide open this year than they have in recent memory.  In addition to the horses mentioned above, we’ll also get I Want Revenge moving from synthetics to dirt (every handicappers least favorite angle to consider) as he ships east for the Gotham.  Personally, I’m thinking Mr. Fantasy has a good a shot as any to come out of the Gotham on top, but we’ll see how this plays out.  If Imperial Council continues to progress, which he should, and manages to take the Gotham, he’d be a very intriguing contender for the run for the roses on the first Saturday in May.

One thing is certain, it’s way too soon to have any finalized opinions yet.  Hold onto your horses folks, it looks like we’ve got a wild ride to the Derby.


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Categories : Gulfstream Park, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail

Sleepy Saturday

21 02 2009

As many of you know, I’ve been an advocate of  an idea I call ‘“Take Back Saturday” that involves telling a continuous story to as wide an audience as possible from the Triple Crown through the Breeder’s Cup – focusing on our marquee racing action every Saturday afternoon.  The Road to the Roses races provide an excellent opportunity to illustrate how this is possible, as numerous horses competing for eligibility in the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May are knocking heads at tracks in New York, Florida, Arkansas, Louisiana, California, and soon will be adding Kentucky to that list as well.   That’s why I’m focusing so heavily on these preps right now. 

That being said, this Saturday is a bit of a sleeper.  The only main action occurring is the Turf Paradise Derby, a race that does not feature any big name runners.  As such, I’m not taking the usual vigilant “weekend warrior” stance here.  I’m only going to play lightly and I”ll use this opportunity to catch up on other chores that will undoubtedly go unfinished while my ever decreasing attention span is focused on races like the Fountain of Youth and Sham Stakes next weekend.

If you’ve been following along with the series “Jockeys” on Animal Planet each weekend, you’ve no doubt become more familiar with the Santa Anita jockey colony (personally I’ve noticed that I find something strangely attractive about Kayla Stra, but that’s a story for another time).   Today’s action at Santa Anita consists of a Pick 6 sequence with a $100,000 carryover.   Not a bad betting opportunity as aspiring horseplayers try their luck at becoming the next “Jimmy the hat.” 

Looking over that sequence, two races stand out to me.  The most interesting race of the sequence in my opinion is the maiden special weight contest in race 8. Ten maidens are going 6 furlongs over the main track, and I think this could be a race to catch a sweet price.   The worthy favorite is Zensational in post #4.   Enunciating the name of this runner invokes images of Zenyatta, but “slow cheetah“ he is obviously not.   This horse has every reason to improve off his debut effort and run this field out of it’s shoes, however, before eating chalk in this effort, cast your eyes down to #7 Off the Wall at very juicy morning line odds of 8/1.  

Off the Wall has very impressive pedigree and should under no circumstances be dismissed here if he makes any kind of appearance in the post parade.  I’ll be honest and admit that I’d consider making this horse an aggressive single in the Pick 6, if I weren’t so fond of choosing runners with a race under their belt over first time starters.  As such, I think you cover Off the Wall and Zensational on the ticket.   Don’t be fooled by the 0% stat with first time starters as trainer Bruce Headley knows how to get a horse cranked up for their debut.  Also note that the Candy Ride offspring have been having a sensational year so far, and are definite horses to watch out west when they debut.  If you happened to pick up a Saturday edition of the Daily Racing Form, you’ll be further encouraged by some of the “closer look” comments concerning Candy Ride and Off the Wall’s dam, Diablo’s Peace.  Giddyup!

I’m not going to go through each race on the card in one of my marathon handicapping posts here, but I also want to spend a little time talking about the Valentine Dancer Handicap.  Of particular interest is that a horse who played a role in last night’s episode of Jockeys, #8 Onebadkitty, is entered in today’s race.  In the episode, Onebadkitty reared up in the gate, tossing Gryder to the ground just two days before he was to pilot Well Armed in a bid for a Breeders’ Cup entry.  The two are paired up once again today. 

This race is actually stacked with horses you have to give a fighting chance to.   Tiz a Blend would probably be my top choice, if only for my affinity to horses with “Tiz” in their name (technically it’s more of a direct Tiznow affinity, but I’m also fond of anything sired by his daddy, Cee’s Tizzy). Chrsitiana’s Heat has had a bit of seconditis lately but figures to have  a shot in here as well.  Then you’ve got the recent darkened form of Bel Air Sizzle that might result in a slightly better value play at the windows. Don’t forget about Waveline, North Rodeo, and Swiss Diva.  I still give Tiz a Blend a slight edge, but not by much.  You might want to cover several options here if you can.

The other big race of the day at Santa Anita is the San Carlos Handicap.  I thought Mike Watchmaker summed this one up perfectly in his selections for the day.  I won’t steal any of his thunder, but suffice to say I think this one comes down to Georgie Boy and Past the Point.  I’m quite fond of Georgie Boy, so I’ll take him for the win, but he is a bit vulnerable here if he doesn’t get anything to run at.

One other quick pick for the day, and it’s more of a local one for me.  In the Maryland Media Handicap we appear to have a two horse race between All Smiles and Hello Poochi Pooh.  I’m taking All Smiles by virtue of the better odds despite the fact that ‘Hello should be loose on the lead.  I actually expected the odds to be reversed on these two, and bettors might make that a reality by post time, but if All Smiles is available at 5/2 he’ll be the play. 

That’s all for this weekend.  We’ll be back in full force next week to gear up for the Fountain of Youth and the Sham, two very important races in the Road to the Roses.  Best of luck to all.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail, Laurel Park, Santa Anita

Old Fashioned puts away Silver City in the Southwest

16 02 2009

 

Old Fashioned, the impressive Larry Jones trained three-year-old son of Unbridled’s Song, faced his toughest challenge yet in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Monday and came out of the race a worthy front runner on the 2009 Kentucky Derby trail. Breaking from post 5, jockey Ramon Dominguez was away sharply before tucking Old Fashioned in behind Silver City in the early going.  As the field turned for home, however, it had already turned into a two horse race between these two as they thundered through the stretch.  Old Fashioned put away Silver City rather handily, while Buzzin and Dreamin just barely avoided being nipped at the wire for show by a late charging Flat Out.

Results Chart

That’s a classy winner right there.  As easy as he made the win look, I think it’s important to remember that many, myself included, thought he would be significantly tested today.  To that end, it  looked like Silver City was indeed going to make him earn every step through the turn and the stretch.  In the end Old Fashioned was simply too much for Silver City to contend with.

The win sets up Old Fashioned as the dominant contender on the Oaklawn circuit.  I mentioned earlier in the weekend during the handicapping selections for the Southwest that he was a nearly unanimous stable selection in the Road to the Roses challenge.  It certainly looks like we’ve all hit gold with this one as he’s likely to be a solid favorite in both the upcoming Rebel (3/14) amd Arkansas Derby (4/11). 

Silver City ran a big race, but ultimately wasn’t able to hang on late in the stretch.  I really liked the way Flat Out was moving late.  Buzzin and Dreamin busted my superfecta ticket by hanging on for third.  Another jump and Flat Out would’ve had Buzzin and Dreamin for show.  Oh well.

In other action across the country, the John Sadler trained filly Evita Argentina came through against the boys in the Grade 2 San Vicente at Santa Anita, under  a beautiful ride by jockey Garrett Gomez.  Gotta tip your hat whenever a filly shows she can take on the boys and win.  I was also happy that she made me look smarter than I am as she appeared to tower over the field in the pre-race handicapping despite being 5/1 on the morning line.  I also managed to hit the super in that one, although the value was nothing like what I had hoped for, even with the morning line favorite finishing 4th.

Things quiet down for a moment on the Derby trail with only the Turf Paradise Derby looming on 2/21.  After that, we’re right back in action with the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth and the Grade 3 Sham on 2/28.   All in all this was a good day for us in our Road to the Roses stables as we picked up points for Old Fashioned, trainer Larry Jones, and Garret Gomez aboard Evita Argentina.  Personally, I think Amy’s stable (which I of course helped her set up) is in FANTASTIC shape.  Just look at what she’s got lined up and tell me s he doesn’t have a big chance to score some major points.  My own stables are similar,  but as she did not enter until early this weekend, overall she is in better shape.  After winning with Old Fashioned and Larry Jones today, the rest of her stable sets up like this:

-Notonthesamepage  (Beyer freak appears primed for the G2 Fountain of Youth 2/28 )

-Captain Candyman Can (Probable favorite for the G2 Fountain of Youth 2/28 )

-The Pamplemousse (looms the top selection for the G3 Sham 2/28 )

-Haynesfield (current leader of the NY path to the Derby – next up in the G3 Gotham 3/7)

-Danger to Society (dangerous challenger to Haynesfield in the G3 Gotham 3/7)

-Mr. Fantasy (another who figures to test Haynes field in the G3 Gotham 3/7)

-Friesan Fire (likely favorite for the G2 LA Derby 3/14)

-Patena (IEAH/Dutrow “A-horse” for the Derby?  G2 LA Derby 3/14)

-Pioneer of the Nile (G2 San Felipe 3/14)

Go baby, go!  :)


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Categories : horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Oaklawn Park, Old Fashioned, Santa Anita

Evita Argentina takes on the boys in the San Vicente

15 02 2009

Monday’s running of the 7 furlong $150,000 Grade 2 San Vicente at Santa Anita pits the John Sadler trained filly Evita Argentina against 9 colts, including morning line favorite Ventana.  The first grade 2 race eligible for scoring in the Road to the Roses challenge, the San Vicente actually sets up more as a sprint than a true Kentucky Derby prep.  Still, beyond The Pamplemousse, Stardom Bound, and Pioneer of the Nile, there’s  many questions as to how the “best of the rest” stack up.  The San Vicente figures to answer some of those questions.

The field for the San Vicente sets up like this:

  • #1 Wall Street Wodner (Joel Rosario/ Bob Baffert) 10/1
  • #2 Cut The Check (Jose Valdivia Jr./ Walter Solis) 15/1
  • #3 Gato Go Win (Michael Baze/ Jeff Mullins) 6/1
  • #4 Evita Argentina (Garrett Gomez/ John Sadler) 5/1
  • #5 Gallant Son (Leslie Mawing/ Frank Lucarelli) 15/1
  • #6 Smokey Lonesome (Isaias Enriquez/ Art Sherman) 8/1
  • #7 Congor Bay (Patrick Husbands/ Mark Casse) 6/1
  • #8 Point Attended (Cory Nakatani/ Eric Guillot) 6/1
  • #9 Ventana (Rafael Bejarano/ Bob Baffert) 7/2*
  • #10 Leedstheway (Tyler Baze/ Jeff Mullins) 12/1

Ventana is tagged as the morning line favorite, but it’s worth noting that at 7/2 it’s a shaky favoritism at best.  The son of Toccet has been ambitiously placed in graded stakes 3 times in his career, and they happen to be some of his worst performances.  He did have a game effort at 7 furlongs in the Grade 3 Hollywood Prevue finishing behind Azul Leon and Jack O’ Lantern.  He was blown away by Pioneer of the Nile and Chocolate Candy next out in the CashCall Futurity (Grade 1), finishing 10th.  He dropped out of the graded stakes level to the listed stakes level in the $70,000 San Pedro, but finished 5th (beaten 2 lengths) by many of today’s rivals, including Congor Bay, Point Attended, and Cut the Check.  All of this taken along with the outside post position in the 9 hole lead me to believe Ventana is a play against on Monday.

Looking at the pace setup for the race, Gato Go Win is a likely candidate to be out in front early and often.  The Jeff Mullins trainee has progressed in his last two starts from maiden special weight up through the N1X Allowance runners.  He’s also shown an ability to hold off close looming challengers in mid race, which he’ll have to do to prevail on Monday.  One thing that might play against Gato Go Win is the presence of some other front running types such as Cut the Check  and potentially Wall Street Wonder. 

If the pace shapes up the way I expect, the race could come down to how well Evita Argentina is moving through the stretch late.  As the lone filly in the race, she’s somewhat disrespected at 5/1 on the morning line, yet still looms as the 2nd favorite.  I expect she’ll take some serious play at the windows though, so 5/1 is likely much better than what we’ll actually get.  I’m thinking closer to 5/2 or 3/1 when all is said and done.  Evita Argentina is a classy filly who has triumphed in the Grade 3 Sorrento, placed in the Grade 2 Santa Ynez, and chased some filly named Stardom Bound around the track in a couple of Grade 1 efforts.  Put plainly, I think she towers over this field.  Add in the Garrett Gomez/John Sadler angle from a jockey/trainer perspective and I’m sold.  I also like that she’s proven at the tricky 7 furlong distance that gives some horses fits.

Looking over the rest of the field, I see a few runners who could over decent value underneath in the single race exotics.  Gallant Son is an interesting runner for Frank Lucarelli who has seemingly been dismissed on the morning line at 15/1.  Like nearly everyone who was defeated in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall at Santa Anita, he “just missed”  finishing 7th and beaten 3 1/2 lengths.  After a layoff, he returned by dropping down into the $100,000 California Derby, where he ran into a horse named Chocolate Candy who would be heavily favored in this field.  He probably needed that race, so don’t be surprised if he is able to find some of that mid 90 Beyer form he displayed last fall.  I give this guy a big chance to hit the board.

Leedstheway is another runner who warrants strong consideration. Not only did he progress straight from maiden breaker to $80,000 optional claimer winner in his first two races, but he also managed to slightly improve upon his speed figures.  That’s usually a good indication of talent when a horse can step up in class and run with the same amount of class.   He’ll be compromised by the outside post, which probably wipes out his win chances, but he should be given a very good chance to wind up on the board as well.

The last  horse I think might get overlooked on the board that should be strongly considered is Wall Street Wonder.  Bob Baffert’s got a sneaky duo in here with the favorite Ventana and Wall Street Wonder.  Don’t be surprised if it’s Wall Street Wonder who winds up best of the two.

I see this one as a race worth taking a stab at with the 10 cent superfecta.  It’s an especially juicy race as there is a strong chance of having the morning line favorite finish out of the first two positions on the results chart.  Usually that’s a key to lighting up the tote board and inflating the odds of other runners, so that’s what we’ll try to do here.  I’ll play Evita Argentina for the win, with Gato Go Win, Gallant Son, and Leedstheway in place.  I’ll add in Wall Street Wonder, Point Attended, and Ventana for show, and will add Congor Bay to them for the bottom of the ticket.

Selections:

(Edit: Upon further reflection, I’m adding #6 Smokey Lonesome to the equation in the  3rd and 4th positions on the ticket, which will boost the total cost of the 10 cent superfecta to $10.80. )

  • $.10 Superfecta: 4/3,5,10/1,3,5,6,8,9,10/1,3,5,6,7,8,9,10 ($10.80)
  • $20 Win #4 Evita Argentina

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Categories : Fantasy Horse Racing, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Santa Anita

G3 Southwest Selections

15 02 2009

Moving right along with the Road to the Roses, up next we’ve got a showdown between two highly touted rivals at Oaklawn park in the Southwest (G3).  Larry Jones trainee Old Fashioned is the morning line favorite having blown away the last two fields he’s faced by a combined total of 22 3/4 lengths.  He has yet to be truly tested, which figures to change on Monday when he runs into another son of Unbridled’s Song in the impressive Dixieland winner Silver City.

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  • Also note the new “Road to the Roses” page here on The Aspiring Horseplayer, where we’ll be keeping track of the results and replays for each Derby prep

The field for the Grade 3 $250,000 Southwest (OP, Race 9, 1 Mile) sets up like this:

  • #1 Retap (L. Quinonez/S. Asmussen) 10/1
  • #2 Lock Dubh (J. Court/ J. Talley) 20/1
  • #3 Silver City (M. Mena/W. B. Calhoun) 7/2
  • #4 Gersham (C. Borel/J. Baker) 10/1
  • #5 Old Fashioned (R. Dominguez/L. Jones) 8/5*
  • #6 Buzzin and Dreamin (I. Ocampo/D. Wayne Lukas) 20/1
  • #7 Flat Out (J. A. Garcia/C. Dickey) 6/1
  • #8 Professor Z (C. Emigh/S. Asmussen) 12/1
  • #9 Poltergeist (Q. Hamilton/D. Von Hemel) 8/1
  • #10 Silver Bayer (T. Thompson/D. Vance) 20/1
  • #11 Kick On (K. Tohill/ J. Petalino) 12/1

We’ll tackle the obvious here right off the bat.  The race most likely boils down to what kind of trip Old Fashioned gets.  If jockey Ramon Dominguez can get him to rate a bit and then make his run, I think it will serve the colt well for potential future engagements down the trail.  If , however, he makes an attempt to wire the field, I think he becomes a bit more vulnerable.  So far we haven’t seen Old Fashioned challenged for a lead, but that could be what happens if  Professor Z and Silver Bayer make an effort for the front.   All of that considered, he’s also coming off a 79 day vacation and could be expected to have a minor amount of rust.  The colt’s been working sharply in the mornings though, firing bullets, and looking the part of a nearly unanimous fantasy stable selection.

 

Old Fashioned wins the Grade 2 Remsen at Aqueduct by over 7 lengths (11/29/08)

 

Silver City presents an interesting choice for handicappers.  The knock will be that he’s a  sprinter stretching out for the first time, but like Old Fashioned there are signs that this one could thrive at longer distances as well.  His impressive speed ratings have risen as he’s added ground, going 6 1/2 furlongs for a career long thus far.  He’ll need to get another furlong and a half to be in the mix on Monday.   The upside is that he’s already shown proficiency on the main track here at Oaklawn having won the $50,000 Dixieland on January 16.  He’s another who has been working impressively in the mornings building up to Monday’s showdown.   If there’s a runner in this race that looks capable of taking down the undefeated Old Fashioned, it’s Silver City.

Another runner who may be overlooked is Flat Out for trainer Charles Dickey.  Flat Out powered home to win the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn on January 19.  That race returned  many of today’s rivals as well (Gersham, Professor Z, Silver Bayer).  Like the Southwest, the Smarty Jones just happened to be run at the 1 mile distance.  He’s also extremely lightly raced, having only 3 prior races coming into the Southwest.  Of particular interest is the fact that he was able to improve off of his Beyer figure in his 2nd race while moving forward from maiden special weight to listed stakes company.  That tells me this horse has the talent to compete in a spot like this.

Many players will also be focusing on Poltergeist, who romped home in an Allowance mile last time out at Oaklawn Park. I can’t find any reason to fault backing this colt if you’re looking for an upset, apart from the fact that he has yet to prove he can achieve as high a speed figure when stepping up in class.  To me, that’s what separates him from a runner like Flat Out from a handicapping perspective.

I’ll look for Old Fashioned to show his class and stay in front of Silver City in the stretch. I do think Silver City will make Old Fashioned earn every step of it though.   Flat Out will be coming late and will present the final challenge to Old Fashioned, who should get to the wire with a neck in front.  I’m calling it a win for Larry Jones, but much closer than the experts think (there’s my gratuitous Lee Corso moment). 

Oaklawn features some attractive vertical wagering possibilities, including a 50 cent trifecta and 10 cent superfecta.  When looking for runners to fill out the ticket that might offer some value, consider that Poltergeist looks useful, but I think he ranks a tad lower than Flat Out and Silver City due to his outside post position.  Ditto for Silver Bayer, who ran a big race for 2nd place behind Flat Out in the Smarty Jones.   I also like the look of some of the inside runners to threaten to hit the board for the bottom of the trifectas and superfectas including Retap, Loch Dubh, and Gresham.  Each should offer fairly large value if they manage to get through.  I also can’t totally count out Professor Z or Silver Beyer.  I mean let’s be honest, just about anybody can run 4th, right?

I’ll play Old Fashioned on top with Silver City and Flat Out in place.  Toss in Retap, Loch Dubh, Gresham, and Poltergeist for show.  Add in the rest apart from Kick On for the bottom of the superfecta.

Selections:

  • $.50 Trifecta 5/3,7/1,2,3,4,7,9 ($5.00)
  • $.10 Superfecta 5/3,7/1,2,3,4,7,9/1,2,3,4,6,7,8,9,10 ($7.00)

If you’re playing for the win, value will be there to warrant taking a stab with either Flat Out or Silver City.  They may be worth a spur of the moment play if they look the part in the post parade.  Ultimately, roughly 24 hours in advance here, I’m going to say Old Fashioned is the horse to beat, so come and beat him if you can. 


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Categories : Fantasy Horse Racing, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Oaklawn Park, Old Fashioned

Curlin covers his first mare

15 02 2009

Hat tip to my good friend Jane Huang over on Facebook who posted this on my wall this morning.  Looks like our boy Curlin has covered his first mare – and she’s a good one (mother of Afleet Alex). 

It’s good to hear he’s taken to his new profession as during the Eclipse Awards ceremony, owner Jess Jackson indicated Curlin had been mildly depressed since retiring from the race track.

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Click the blue text above for the full article from Bloodhorse.


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Categories : Curlin, Handicapping Selections, Horse Racing News

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