The Grade 3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs this Saturday kicks off the Road to the Roses challenge, and it looks like we’ve got a good one. Contentions run deep as trainer Ken McPeek sends out Free Country to do battle with Atomic Rain, A.P. Cardinal, Musket Man, and a field of 7 other contenders all attempting to garner much needed graded stakes earning en route to the 2009 Kentucky Derby. The field sets up like this:
- #1 Medaglia d’Onore (D. Centeno/Jamie Sanders) 20/1
- #2 General Quarters (J. Lopez/Mark Miller) 8/1
- #3 Player’s List (A. Cox/Wayne Rice) 50/1
- #4 Mitchell Park (L. Gonzalez/Roy Lerman) 20/1
- #5 Atomic Rain (J. Velazquez/Kelly Breen) 7/2
- #6 Cliffy’s Future (P. Lopez/Darrin Miller) 10/1
- #7 Free Country (K. Desormeaux/ Kenneth McPeek) 3/1*
- #8 A.P. Cardinal (J. Bravo/Kiaran McLaughlin) 8/1
- #9 Musket Man (J. Lezcano/Derek Ryan) 9/2
- #10 Sumo (R. Douglas/Graham Motion) 12/1
- #11 Top Seed (R. Allen Jr./ Michael Trombeta) 6/1
Free Country and Atomic Rain are familiar foes, having locked horns in the stretch last out in a Gulfstream Park allowance race going 1 1/8 miles. Atomic Rain was involved up front in a pace duel that day and was able to dig in and hold on for a close second, beaten only by a neck by Free Country. I’m not sure if Free Country will get the same pace setup today, as it looks like Atomic Rain could have things a bit easier on the front end if he’s able to get away. Might this set things up for a reversal of fortunes? Only time will tell.
A. P. Cardinal is an improving son of A.P. Indy that has progressed upwards on the Beyer scale in his last three races. On paper he’s a shade below the top contenders, but it’s tough to count an improving runner for the Kiaran Mclaughlin barn out of a contest like this. Taking a look at the competition he’s been facing in each of his last three races, you notice the names Vineyard Haven, Old Fashioned, and Danger to Society. I expect an improved performance out of A.P. Cardinal on Saturday, but I’ll take a wait and see approach before predicting a victory.
Musket Man is an interesting and undefeated runner for trainer Derek Ryan. Clearly he fits with this field as a legitimate contender based on his recent Beyer figure of 92 in the Pasco. He seems to like the track at Tampa, but today he’ll be asked to go significantly farther than his career long of 7 furlongs. He’s been training well and figures to be right there turning for home if he can stalk effectively and stay within striking distance of Atomic Rain.
Two other horses worth considering in this field are General Quarters and Top Seed. Genearal Quarters ran second to Musket Man last out and also has a close second to Top Seed two races back. He’s a Sky Mesa colt, so he ought to be able to stretch out for the distance of the Sam F. Davis. Top Seed would be a much stronger contender if he hadn’t drawn the extreme outside, but do note that he prevailed from the 12 hole last out on this track, meaning he can’t be left out of the equation.
I’m going to go with the Ken McPeek runner, Free Country for the win. McPeek has had some down luck lately, losing potential Derby threat Danger to Society to Rick Dutrow after finishing 7th in the Holy Bull earlier this month. Remember that this is the guy credited with finding Curlin. McPeek has had a smashing season so far in his return to training, and part of me would simply like to see him get a legitimate Derby hopeful on the right path by prevailing here in the Sam F. Davis. You won’t hear me argue, however, with anyone who decides to take Atomic Rain for the win, for as I mentioned earlier the pace may be more favorable to him today.
Underneath I’ll cover Atomic Rain, Top Seed, and A. P. Cardinal. I’ll add in General Quarters and Musket Man for show.
$1 Trifecta: 7/5,8,11/2,5,8,9,11 ($12)
In the other major prep of the day covered in the Road to the Roses, I like Chocolate Candy to continue his march on the Derby trail by prevailing in the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate.
Top Seed and AP Cardinal on top of the exactas for the win. nice to see at least one blogger still handicapping.
Nice exacta! I could see both of them running big here. I’m pretty much all about handicapping. The way I see it, all the other “news’ is basicaly rehashed stuff already out there. The only real “unique” thing I can offer is my opinion. To a limited extent I do this with post race coverage as well, but usually it’s handicapping.
WOW! Did you see Seventh Street in the Barbara Fritchie?! She was amazing!!! I can’t wait to see what she does in higher stakes company with a good start!
Yup – saw Seventh Street. I actuall had her singled in a cheap $15 PIck 4 ticket, but got burned before I could cash.
Another one who took a big step forward was Imperial Council – another Empire Maker (like Pioneer of the Nile) that looks like he’ll continue to get better. Obviously Chocolate Candy and General Quarters made big moves forward as well.