THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

Moving right along with the Road to the Roses, up next we’ve got a showdown between two highly touted rivals at Oaklawn park in the Southwest (G3).  Larry Jones trainee Old Fashioned is the morning line favorite having blown away the last two fields he’s faced by a combined total of 22 3/4 lengths.  He has yet to be truly tested, which figures to change on Monday when he runs into another son of Unbridled’s Song in the impressive Dixieland winner Silver City.

• Click here for free Brisnet PP’s
• Also note the new “Road to the Roses” page here on The Aspiring Horseplayer, where we’ll be keeping track of the results and replays for each Derby prep

The field for the Grade 3 $250,000 Southwest (OP, Race 9, 1 Mile) sets up like this:

• #1 Retap (L. Quinonez/S. Asmussen) 10/1
• #2 Lock Dubh (J. Court/ J. Talley) 20/1
• #3 Silver City (M. Mena/W. B. Calhoun) 7/2
• #4 Gersham (C. Borel/J. Baker) 10/1
• #5 Old Fashioned (R. Dominguez/L. Jones) 8/5*
• #6 Buzzin and Dreamin (I. Ocampo/D. Wayne Lukas) 20/1
• #7 Flat Out (J. A. Garcia/C. Dickey) 6/1
• #8 Professor Z (C. Emigh/S. Asmussen) 12/1
• #9 Poltergeist (Q. Hamilton/D. Von Hemel) 8/1
• #10 Silver Bayer (T. Thompson/D. Vance) 20/1
• #11 Kick On (K. Tohill/ J. Petalino) 12/1

We’ll tackle the obvious here right off the bat.  The race most likely boils down to what kind of trip Old Fashioned gets.  If jockey Ramon Dominguez can get him to rate a bit and then make his run, I think it will serve the colt well for potential future engagements down the trail.  If , however, he makes an attempt to wire the field, I think he becomes a bit more vulnerable.  So far we haven’t seen Old Fashioned challenged for a lead, but that could be what happens if  Professor Z and Silver Bayer make an effort for the front.   All of that considered, he’s also coming off a 79 day vacation and could be expected to have a minor amount of rust.  The colt’s been working sharply in the mornings though, firing bullets, and looking the part of a nearly unanimous fantasy stable selection.

Old Fashioned wins the Grade 2 Remsen at Aqueduct by over 7 lengths (11/29/08)

Silver City presents an interesting choice for handicappers.  The knock will be that he’s a  sprinter stretching out for the first time, but like Old Fashioned there are signs that this one could thrive at longer distances as well.  His impressive speed ratings have risen as he’s added ground, going 6 1/2 furlongs for a career long thus far.  He’ll need to get another furlong and a half to be in the mix on Monday.   The upside is that he’s already shown proficiency on the main track here at Oaklawn having won the $50,000 Dixieland on January 16.  He’s another who has been working impressively in the mornings building up to Monday’s showdown.   If there’s a runner in this race that looks capable of taking down the undefeated Old Fashioned, it’s Silver City.

Another runner who may be overlooked is Flat Out for trainer Charles Dickey.  Flat Out powered home to win the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn on January 19.  That race returned  many of today’s rivals as well (Gersham, Professor Z, Silver Bayer).  Like the Southwest, the Smarty Jones just happened to be run at the 1 mile distance.  He’s also extremely lightly raced, having only 3 prior races coming into the Southwest.  Of particular interest is the fact that he was able to improve off of his Beyer figure in his 2nd race while moving forward from maiden special weight to listed stakes company.  That tells me this horse has the talent to compete in a spot like this.

Many players will also be focusing on Poltergeist, who romped home in an Allowance mile last time out at Oaklawn Park. I can’t find any reason to fault backing this colt if you’re looking for an upset, apart from the fact that he has yet to prove he can achieve as high a speed figure when stepping up in class.  To me, that’s what separates him from a runner like Flat Out from a handicapping perspective.

I’ll look for Old Fashioned to show his class and stay in front of Silver City in the stretch. I do think Silver City will make Old Fashioned earn every step of it though.   Flat Out will be coming late and will present the final challenge to Old Fashioned, who should get to the wire with a neck in front.  I’m calling it a win for Larry Jones, but much closer than the experts think (there’s my gratuitous Lee Corso moment). 

Oaklawn features some attractive vertical wagering possibilities, including a 50 cent trifecta and 10 cent superfecta.  When looking for runners to fill out the ticket that might offer some value, consider that Poltergeist looks useful, but I think he ranks a tad lower than Flat Out and Silver City due to his outside post position.  Ditto for Silver Bayer, who ran a big race for 2nd place behind Flat Out in the Smarty Jones.   I also like the look of some of the inside runners to threaten to hit the board for the bottom of the trifectas and superfectas including Retap, Loch Dubh, and Gresham.  Each should offer fairly large value if they manage to get through.  I also can’t totally count out Professor Z or Silver Beyer.  I mean let’s be honest, just about anybody can run 4th, right?

I’ll play Old Fashioned on top with Silver City and Flat Out in place.  Toss in Retap, Loch Dubh, Gresham, and Poltergeist for show.  Add in the rest apart from Kick On for the bottom of the superfecta.

Selections:

• $.50 Trifecta 5/3,7/1,2,3,4,7,9 ($5.00)
• $.10 Superfecta 5/3,7/1,2,3,4,7,9/1,2,3,4,6,7,8,9,10 ($7.00)

If you’re playing for the win, value will be there to warrant taking a stab with either Flat Out or Silver City.  They may be worth a spur of the moment play if they look the part in the post parade.  Ultimately, roughly 24 hours in advance here, I’m going to say Old Fashioned is the horse to beat, so come and beat him if you can.