It’s nothing new, really. Whereas in days of yore the only way a colt surged forward along the road to the Kentucky Derby was with a solid foundation as a 2 year-old and a campaign of steady, distance increasing races as an early 3-year-old, the trend lately has been for instant sensations. We saw this last year with Big Brown (although technically he had raced as a 2-year-old, albeit briefly), and we saw this 2 years-ago with Curlin. Could it be happening once again?
Two colts have garnered a great deal of attention since winning impressively at the Allowance level in the last few weeks as they attempt to earn there way into the starting field of the 2009 Kentucky Derby the first Saturday in May. Dunkirk and Imperial Council have made many take notice and now have folks questioning whether they will be able to shake up the prep fields they are pointed towards.
Both horses (Dunkirk and Imperial Council) have martial sounding names, which is an added bonus for a military history buff like me. As Dunkirk was historically the savior of the British Expeditionary Force (BEF) in the dark days of early World War 2, might Dunkirk the colt be the savior of perennial Triple Crown hopeful Todd Pletcher? Typically Pletcher has any number of runners pointing for the roses, but this year his stable didn’t seem to have as many legit contenders. Then, out of seemingly nowhere, WHAM – here’s Dunkirk. I’m reminded of the film “A Bridge Too Far” where Michael Caine’s character (in charge of the British armored XXX Corps) discusses the positives of arriving just in time, like the cavalry showing up in the nick of time, rather than earlier than expected. “On Shed-dule” is how he puts it. Yes indeed – it would appear Dunkirk hath arrived “on shed-dule” for Todd Pletcher.
Dunkirk throttles the field in his Allowance victory at Gulfstream Park 2/19/09.
Dunkirk’s allowance victory at Gulfstream Park on 2/19 added yet another grey colt to the equation for the Kentucky Derby. The $3.7 million purchase has a solid pedigree being sired by Unbridled’s Song and out of the Kentucky Oaks winning mare Secret Status. He’s trained by Todd Pletcher and was piloted by Garrett Gomez during his allowance romp. It remains to be seen if Gomez will retain the mount next out in the Grade 1 Florida Derby on 3/28/09, or if jockey Edgar Prado will take the mount. Prado happened to be on a rival horse for trainer Rick Dutrow during Dunkirk’s recent victory.
Looking at the run, I thought it was visually impressive. He takes some time to get going, but once he does he puts away the competition with the class expected of a horse who will be a Grade 1 contender. The knock on him will be that he is lightly raced (I’ll always think of Curlin when I hear that), and that he lacks the “foundation” that racing as a 2-year-old has seemingly provided in the past. If you ask me though, the times are clearly changing. If he shows up and pulls a Big Brown in the Florida Derby, this will be your Derby horse. If he doesn’t, well than it’s back to the drawing board. Just to keep things honest though, it’s wise to remember that the field in his allowance victory was questionable (I’m honestly not familiar with any of them at this point in time), and the final time of 1:50.15, while good, could be improved upon. Of course, if you’ve only got 2 races under your belt, the sky’s the limit, right? The best thing I like about this guy? He’s not a front runner, and he seems likely to be able to relax until the real running begins.
Imperial Council wins Gulfstream allowance on 2/14/09
The other colt that is generating a healthy dose of buzz is Imperial Council. The lightly raced Empire Maker colt (huge hat tip to Mike from Horse Racing Free Picks who is by far the biggest fan of Empire Maker offspring I know…so much so that whenever I think of them I instantly connect them with him) turned in a whopper as well last week when he blazed through allowance competition at Gulfstream. He’s now pointing to the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on 3/7/09 where he’ll face off against Haynesfield, Mr. Fantasy, and possibly Danger to Society. Trainer Shug McGaughey is quoted in bloodhorse as wanting to move the colt north so that he can continue to stretch him out distance wise, as opposed to facing off in the condensed 1-mile distance of Fountain of Youth.
My gut tells me that while sending him up to New York is definitely the right thing to do to determine if he’s a legitimate Derby contender, I have a feeling the major NY preps are going to be a lot more wide open this year than they have in recent memory. In addition to the horses mentioned above, we’ll also get I Want Revenge moving from synthetics to dirt (every handicappers least favorite angle to consider) as he ships east for the Gotham. Personally, I’m thinking Mr. Fantasy has a good a shot as any to come out of the Gotham on top, but we’ll see how this plays out. If Imperial Council continues to progress, which he should, and manages to take the Gotham, he’d be a very intriguing contender for the run for the roses on the first Saturday in May.
One thing is certain, it’s way too soon to have any finalized opinions yet. Hold onto your horses folks, it looks like we’ve got a wild ride to the Derby.
I thought Dunkirk’s race was really good, but I wasn’t too impressed with it. I think Old Fashioned is the real deal, I love that horse! By the way, has anyone else besides me noticed that a big portion of the good young horses this year are gray/roans?
The more I watch him, the more I think this is my guy. I totally respect Old Fashioned though and he’s certainly done nothing to diminish his chances. I’m going to wait until the Florida Derby before I jump fully on the bandwagon, but if I had to pick one horse and the Derby were tomorrow – I think I’d take Dunkirk at this point in time. It’s probably ill-advised of me, but it’s the truth.
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DUNKIRK ‘looks’ very sharp for the GRADED FLORIDA DERBY – working very well. PLETCHER may finally have a ‘legitimate’ contender for KENUCKY??? DUNNO but he should be coming at the end.
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