The Pamplemousse looks to “Wow” in the Sham

27 02 2009

You knew it would simply be impossible for me to resist a gratuitous Sham Wow reference when covering Saturday’s 9th running of the Grade 3 Sham at Santa Anita.  Twelve runners have gathered for the Sham to take on trainer Julio Canani’s Kentucky Derby hopeful, including a likely late shipper from the east in Todd Pletcher’s colt Take the Points.  The field for the Sham sets up like this:

Past Performances for the Sham are available here

  1. Hi Flyin Indy (A. Quinonez/E. Harty) 30/1
  2. Smart Bid (R. Bejarano/G. Motion) 8/1
  3. Tiz True (A. Gryder/ D. Hofmans) 30/1
  4. Lifeline SCRATCHED
  5. The Pamplemousse (A. Solis/J. Canani) 9/5*
  6. Balfour Park (B. Blank/C. Lewis) 30/1
  7. Mr. Hot Stuff (C. Nakatani/E. Harty) 7/2
  8. Bourbon Bay (J. Rosario/N. Drysdale) 15/1
  9. Ventana (J. Rios/B. Baffert) 15/1
  10.  Mark S the Cooler (J. Talamo/D. O’Neill) 15/1
  11.  Unbridled Roman (M. Smith/ C. Paasch) 12/1
  12.  Take the Points (G. Gomez/ T. Pletcher) 3/1

The Pamplemousse ran huge last time out after getting the perfect trip in the San Rafael (G3) on 1/17.   The son of Kafwain (Cherokee Run) has improved on the Beyer scale in each of his 4 lifetime races.  He’ll be stretching out an extra furlong today in the 1 1/8 mile Sham, but also owns a victory at 1 1/16 miles, so distance would not seem to be a concern.  A more pressing question might be what kind of pace scenario the grapefruit (in case you’ve ever wondered what “Pamplemousse” means) gets on Saturday.  Regardless, he’s clearly the horse to beat and is definitely eligible of another gate to wire romp if he gets loose on the lead.

The obvious rival will be the recent maiden graduate and full brother to Colonel John, the Eoin Harty trained Mr. Hot Stuff.  After struggling a bit in his first four races, he seemingly put it all together last out against obviously softer competition.  He’ll get the acid test today as he moves up to face tougher, although it’s not like this field is loaded with stakes winners.   Only the favorite can lay claim to that honor.  Besides The Pamplemousse, the only runners in the field with victories outside of the maiden ranks are Smart Bid and Take the Points.   Obviously he’s a thread if he runs back to his last Beyer figure. 

Looking over the rest of the field, Smart Bid is a horse I think will love the distance of the Sham, but it’s a bit of an unknown how he’ll take to the Pro Ride surface.  If you’re looking for a positive sign on his otherwise forgettable debut over synthetics last July, note that at least he was moving decently late, as indicated by the “mild rally” note in his comment line.  He’s coming off back to back wins, is trained by one of my favorites in Graham Motion, and obviously shares sires with a certain chestnut colt you might say I’m somewhat endeared to.  All of that and 8/1 make him a very attractive play underneath.

Take the Points is a horse who looks like a major threat on paper, but I’m probably going to pass at odds anything like 3/1.  Don’t get me wrong, I think this is a nice colt and he can definitely hit the board;  I’m just not fond of horses shipping from east to west.  Especially when they don’t have any workouts posted on the surface.  It’s a crap-shoot, and the odds to me don’t favor the risk/reward potential. 

Ventana is a runner who might be worth giving another look.  He was favored last out on the morning line in the San Vicente, something that many horseplayers scoffed at.  He ran 4th that day, but was only beaten 2 1/4 lengths, and a couple of the horses in that race (namely the winning filly Evita Argentina and runner up Leedstheway) are horses who should do well this year.  He offered no value in the San Vicente as chalk, but now the opposite is true as he’s 15/1 on the morning line.  I think when all is said and done he is a classier horse than many of the runners in here, so I’ll be using him underneath as well.

Bourbon Bay is another I think could be sneaky in here at long odds.  While his previous running has been on the grass for trainer Neil Drysdale, I like that he’s improved with each start.  Another move forward puts him right in contention in this field.   He handled stakes company rather well last November in the Generous (G3) at Hollywood.  Still, he’s been off for essentially 3 months, so his prospects at winning are rather slim.   As an underneath play on the exotics he should offer some value though. 

I’ll eat chalk here and play The Pamplemousse for the win.  I don’t expect very good odds on him though, so we’ll likely pass on the win bet and focus instead on the 10 cent Superfecta.   Ill use Smart Bid, Mr. Hot Stuff, and Ventana in place.  Add to them Bourbon Bay and Take the Points for show.  I’ll toss in Unbridled Roman and Mark S the Cooler for 4th.

Selections:

$.10 Superfecta: 5/2,7,9/2,7,8,9,12/2,7,8,9,10,11,12 ($6.00)


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail, Santa Anita

Fountain of Youth a race of intrigue

27 02 2009

In the 16th century, Spanish explorer and conquistador Ponce de Leon is rumored to have searched high and wide for the mythical Fountain of Youth in order to cure his natural aging.  He never did find it.  Trying to decipher Saturday’s 63rd running of the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park might be just as difficult a proposition.  We’ve got an incredibly deep field of talented and up-and-coming 3-year-old colts all trying to stamp there name on the Kentucky Derby Trail.  Twelve horses are entered (although one is likely shipping west for the day’s other feature, the Sham at Santa Anita).  The field sets up like this:

Past Performances for the G2 Fountain of Youth are available here

  1. Be Cee Cee (C. Velasquez/E. Plesa Jr.) 30/1
  2. Theregoesjojo (K. Desormeaux/ K. McPeek) 15/1
  3. Notonthesamepage (E. Trujillo/W. Ward) 4/1
  4. Take the Points (C. Decarlo/T. Pletcher) 10/1
  5. Jack Spratt (R. Douglas/M. Maker) 20/1
  6. Rocketing Returns (J. Lezcano/N. Zito) 15/1
  7. Beethoven (C. Borel/J. Ward Jr.) 12/1
  8. Break Water Edison (E. Coa/J. Kimmel) 15/1
  9. Capt. Candyman Can (J. Leparoux/I. Wilkes) 5/1
  10.  Taqarub (A. Garcia/K. McLaughlin) 6/1
  11.  Quality Road (J. Velazquez Jr./ J. Jerkens) 8/1
  12.  This Ones for Phil (E. Prado/R. Dutrow) 3/1*

Most of the attention in this race will likely be focused on what I refer to as the “Beyer freaks.”  That probably doesn’t need an explanation from most horseplayers.  Obviously this means “Phil” and “Not”.  If they run anything like those speed figures here, this race won’t be much of a mystery at all. 

The trouble with just blindly taking “Not” , who has the better post position (in theory) of the two is that he is likely to be involved in what appears to be a fairly hotly contested early pace in this race.   You get the feeling he is the speed, but Quality Road and Taqarub would appear to have something to say about that.  He also has the look of a sprinter when going over his running lines.  Sure he can burn ‘em at 6 furlongs and shorter, but can he do it going 8?  I’d say at 4/1 you make him prove it first.

“Phil” presents an altogether different problem in that he’s hung wide in the 12 hole.  Of course, we are talking trainer Rick Dutrow here – the man who got Big Brown to the winner’s circle in post 12 of the Florida Derby last year, and then from post 20 in the Kentucky Derby. I actually think the outside provides “Phil” with a clean break, which is something he’ll need trying to save some ground early and then stalking the hot pace.  The danger for him is getting cooked if the fractions are too hot up front.   That being said, he seems the proverbial bounce candidate, and at 3/1 in a field with as many options as this, he does warrant taking a chance against.   Respect him for sure, but don’t be paralyzed with fear over his Beyers. 

Ultimately this race does set up for a horse coming from off the pace.  The question for me is “how far off the pace?”  Let’s say Phil were to get burned up front early on.  Then what?   Well, 3 horses who could benefit are Capt. Candyman Can (5/1), Beethoven (12/1), and Break Water Edison (15/1).  Those are some decent prices, especially when you consider that two races back Beethoven beat Capt. Candyman Can.  Assuming we do get the expected pace scenario up front, and that we’re playing on the idea that to beat the favorite (“Phil”), we’d have to hope he gets a little tired  trying to keep up with the early pace, that really sets things up for Beethoven and Break Water Edison.

I know Beethoven is a popular upset pick form many handicappers, so I’m obviously not the only one seeing him with a huge chance here.  The race has to fall into his lap though as I don’t think that with all things being equal he can quite outrun the main rivals today.  

Breakwater Edison is my longshot bomber for the race.  Two months ago this guy might have been favored here.  Now he’s 15/1.  All he’s done in between is had one horrible trip.  We’ve all seen this before.  Is that last trip the “real” Break Water Edison, or were his runs in the end of his 2-year-old campaign more formful?  He was definitely facing (at least at that stage in their development) better when he faced off against Vineyard Haven, Cribnote, and Munnings on back to back occasions.  He’s Lemon Drop, so you know he likes all the extra ground (and experience) he can get.   There’s a lot to like about this guy at 15/1 is all I’m saying.  You can’t always come up with ways why a 15/1 can win a race like this, so being able to foresee him closing late into a hot early pace makes me think this guy could be a player here.

Quality Road and Taqarub look like very good horses, but they’d be a lot more appealing to me if they were the only speed in this race.  It seems to me that to win they are going to have to show they can relax a bit stretching out, which might be asking just a tad too much against this rather salty competition.

Honestly there’s a million ways you could go with this one.  I’m going bombing with my picks.  I’m playing Beethoven to win for $20, and putting him on top of my 10 cent Superfecta.  I’ll probably use “Phil”, Break Water Edison, and Capt. Candyman Can in second.   I like Theregoesjojo enough to add him in third, and Bee Cee Cee seems to have a tendency to wind up hitting the board as well.  I’ll add in Quality Road and “Not” for the bottom of the ticket.

Selections:

  • $20 Win:  #7 Beethoven
  • $.10 Superfecta: 7/8,9,12/1,2,8,9,12/1,2,3,8,9,11,12 ($6.00)

Best of luck to all. You wont’ get any argument out of me if you play “Phil” or the Capt. as the scenarios where they could win are just as likely (if not more).   Whatever you do, make sure you watch this one if you can as it looks like the best Derby prep that we’ve had thus far…at least on paper.


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Categories : Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail


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