In the 16th century, Spanish explorer and conquistador Ponce de Leon is rumored to have searched high and wide for the mythical Fountain of Youth in order to cure his natural aging. He never did find it. Trying to decipher Saturday’s 63rd running of the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park might be just as difficult a proposition. We’ve got an incredibly deep field of talented and up-and-coming 3-year-old colts all trying to stamp there name on the Kentucky Derby Trail. Twelve horses are entered (although one is likely shipping west for the day’s other feature, the Sham at Santa Anita). The field sets up like this:
Past Performances for the G2 Fountain of Youth are available here
- Be Cee Cee (C. Velasquez/E. Plesa Jr.) 30/1
- Theregoesjojo (K. Desormeaux/ K. McPeek) 15/1
- Notonthesamepage (E. Trujillo/W. Ward) 4/1
- Take the Points (C. Decarlo/T. Pletcher) 10/1
- Jack Spratt (R. Douglas/M. Maker) 20/1
- Rocketing Returns (J. Lezcano/N. Zito) 15/1
- Beethoven (C. Borel/J. Ward Jr.) 12/1
- Break Water Edison (E. Coa/J. Kimmel) 15/1
- Capt. Candyman Can (J. Leparoux/I. Wilkes) 5/1
- Taqarub (A. Garcia/K. McLaughlin) 6/1
- Quality Road (J. Velazquez Jr./ J. Jerkens) 8/1
- This Ones for Phil (E. Prado/R. Dutrow) 3/1*
Most of the attention in this race will likely be focused on what I refer to as the “Beyer freaks.” That probably doesn’t need an explanation from most horseplayers. Obviously this means “Phil” and “Not”. If they run anything like those speed figures here, this race won’t be much of a mystery at all.
The trouble with just blindly taking “Not” , who has the better post position (in theory) of the two is that he is likely to be involved in what appears to be a fairly hotly contested early pace in this race. You get the feeling he is the speed, but Quality Road and Taqarub would appear to have something to say about that. He also has the look of a sprinter when going over his running lines. Sure he can burn ‘em at 6 furlongs and shorter, but can he do it going 8? I’d say at 4/1 you make him prove it first.
“Phil” presents an altogether different problem in that he’s hung wide in the 12 hole. Of course, we are talking trainer Rick Dutrow here – the man who got Big Brown to the winner’s circle in post 12 of the Florida Derby last year, and then from post 20 in the Kentucky Derby. I actually think the outside provides “Phil” with a clean break, which is something he’ll need trying to save some ground early and then stalking the hot pace. The danger for him is getting cooked if the fractions are too hot up front. That being said, he seems the proverbial bounce candidate, and at 3/1 in a field with as many options as this, he does warrant taking a chance against. Respect him for sure, but don’t be paralyzed with fear over his Beyers.
Ultimately this race does set up for a horse coming from off the pace. The question for me is “how far off the pace?” Let’s say Phil were to get burned up front early on. Then what? Well, 3 horses who could benefit are Capt. Candyman Can (5/1), Beethoven (12/1), and Break Water Edison (15/1). Those are some decent prices, especially when you consider that two races back Beethoven beat Capt. Candyman Can. Assuming we do get the expected pace scenario up front, and that we’re playing on the idea that to beat the favorite (“Phil”), we’d have to hope he gets a little tired trying to keep up with the early pace, that really sets things up for Beethoven and Break Water Edison.
I know Beethoven is a popular upset pick form many handicappers, so I’m obviously not the only one seeing him with a huge chance here. The race has to fall into his lap though as I don’t think that with all things being equal he can quite outrun the main rivals today.
Breakwater Edison is my longshot bomber for the race. Two months ago this guy might have been favored here. Now he’s 15/1. All he’s done in between is had one horrible trip. We’ve all seen this before. Is that last trip the “real” Break Water Edison, or were his runs in the end of his 2-year-old campaign more formful? He was definitely facing (at least at that stage in their development) better when he faced off against Vineyard Haven, Cribnote, and Munnings on back to back occasions. He’s Lemon Drop, so you know he likes all the extra ground (and experience) he can get. There’s a lot to like about this guy at 15/1 is all I’m saying. You can’t always come up with ways why a 15/1 can win a race like this, so being able to foresee him closing late into a hot early pace makes me think this guy could be a player here.
Quality Road and Taqarub look like very good horses, but they’d be a lot more appealing to me if they were the only speed in this race. It seems to me that to win they are going to have to show they can relax a bit stretching out, which might be asking just a tad too much against this rather salty competition.
Honestly there’s a million ways you could go with this one. I’m going bombing with my picks. I’m playing Beethoven to win for $20, and putting him on top of my 10 cent Superfecta. I’ll probably use “Phil”, Break Water Edison, and Capt. Candyman Can in second. I like Theregoesjojo enough to add him in third, and Bee Cee Cee seems to have a tendency to wind up hitting the board as well. I’ll add in Quality Road and “Not” for the bottom of the ticket.
Selections:
- $20 Win: #7 Beethoven
- $.10 Superfecta: 7/8,9,12/1,2,8,9,12/1,2,3,8,9,11,12 ($6.00)
Best of luck to all. You wont’ get any argument out of me if you play “Phil” or the Capt. as the scenarios where they could win are just as likely (if not more). Whatever you do, make sure you watch this one if you can as it looks like the best Derby prep that we’ve had thus far…at least on paper.
Wow, did you see the automatically generated posts? “Mommy Wore Combat Boots, Week 9: The Adventures of Capt Destructo and Stink…” Good for a laugh!
I like Beethoven too, just not sure he will bounce back from the Holy Bull all that well. I hope to see good things from #2,10 and 11 in the comming months. They are good horses and they haven’t peaked yet.
OMG – what the heck is that? Mommy wore combat boots?
I needed that laugh today. I wonder what on earth it’s picking up that would make it assume that’s a related post? It’s got to be the “Capt.” bit. At least I didn’t get multiple posts about Billy Joel’s Captain Jack.
I think Theregoesjojo hits the board, and I definitely agree Taqarub and Quality Road have bright futures in front of them. It sure would make things exciting if one of them pulled off the upset.
Your analysis is flawed. The mile race at Gulfstream is run over 1 turn out ofr the chute and it is actually the inside posts that are at a disadvantage here. Notonthesamepage is going to have to gun it out of the gate to avoid getting caught behind horses while This Ones for Phil will have the entire backstretch and then some to work his way over to a more reasonable lane.
I like the Captain here. Look at a replay of the Hutcheson stakes, if you can, and see how he was able to track the pacesetters, throttle back off the pace to move outside, and then turn it on again. Not many 3yo’s at this time of year are mature enought to pull that off.
I doubt This Ones for Phil will get burned up by the pace. He’s got the brilliant Edgar Prado aboard and he’ll have him positioned as perfectly as possible early on. His problem will be having to go four wide on the turn to pass the many good speed horses in the race. If he runs another 116 Beyer, that may be a piece of cake, but I’m not going to bet him.
Notonthesamepage is the “speed of the speed” and nobody can get the lead from him if he wants it. That brings up the fact that this is just a prep race and many trainers would like to get their horses to become comfortable rating behind other horses. Ward stated that his hand is forced a bit with the inside post position suggesting that they feel they need to lead because they won’t be able to try stalking the pace from the outside. It’s very possible he could be on the lead in 45:1 or slower in which case I don’t see anybody catching him. He won’t have traffic or a wide trip to deal with like This Ones For Phil. Notonthesamepage is definitely the horse to beat here.
Quality Road impressed me with with his 101 Beyer in his debut. He broke last in his last race and was forced to rush up into a speed duel. That’s a good excuse for finishing second. Today he carries low weight and gets Lasix for the first time. Both of those factors make me feel he can stretch out to a mile with ease. I feel they will want to stay a half length behind Notonthesamepage, just to his outside, and try to pass him on the far turn. Problem is if they don’t press the pace enough, Notonthesamepage is going to wire the field. I feel their best chance is to gun for the lead and hope Trujillo is willing to follow with Notonthesamepage in second. That’s probably not going to happen though.
Taqarub was my original choice as he is undefeated and winning under hand rides in his preps like a super horse. He steps up against a strong field today and will have to rate behind horses for the first time. Alan Garcia told Kiaran McLaughlin after the Winkfield that he thinks Taqarub can do just that. Well I guess we’re going to find out.
Theregoesjojo ran a great race in last off the layoff and could take another step forward today. He’ll be well off the pace and will have a lot of traffic to negotiate but may be the biggest stretch threat if there’s a speed duel.
Jeff – regarding the post positions – that’s why I say the inside post is “in theory” the more preferrable, but if you read closely you see that I prefer the outside – so really we agree about what is favorable/disadvantageous.
Definitely agree the Capt. can do it here. Just think it’s interesting that he was defeated by Beethoven two back and you get twice as good odds on Bethoven than the Capt.
Jerry – very interesting. I recall hearing that Jill Byrne was very high on Quality Road as well. I should also point out that if “Not” runs big, that actually helps me as we’ve got him in one of our Road to the Roses stables. Interestingly, “Phil” wasn’t even an option when we chose our stable. I may be over inflating the odds of ‘Phil” a bit just because of the Dutrow factor.
If it rains or the track comes up sloppy – look for BE CEE CEE and C. VELASQUEZ to run better than expected.
Quality Road in a shocker!
Kevin, you were right about “Phil” getting burned up by the pace. Nobody wanted the lead and Edgar knew everybody was holding back so he grabbed the lead in a slow first quarter. Unfortunately for Edgar the pace really heated up after he decided to take the lead. I bet Dutrow was pissed! Oh well, I don’t think he had one of the best horses under him anyway.
I don’t know what was up with “Not” pulling a War Pass, but it was disgusting to see him not get the lead when the first quarter was so slow. I guess they were worried about all the other speed in the race and decided to see if he could rate behind horses :-0
I just read that Notonthesamepage bled in the race and is off the Derby trail. That doesn’t explain him not getting the lead, but it may explain why he didn’t rally at all. Really I think he was in trouble after not getting the lead whether he bled or not, but it’s always nice to hear an excuse of some kind when your horse doesn’t run as expected.
Never good news to hear that. Hopefully he’ll be okay after a little rest.