THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

You knew it would simply be impossible for me to resist a gratuitous Sham Wow reference when covering Saturday’s 9th running of the Grade 3 Sham at Santa Anita.  Twelve runners have gathered for the Sham to take on trainer Julio Canani’s Kentucky Derby hopeful, including a likely late shipper from the east in Todd Pletcher’s colt Take the Points.  The field for the Sham sets up like this:

Past Performances for the Sham are available here

1. Hi Flyin Indy (A. Quinonez/E. Harty) 30/1
2. Smart Bid (R. Bejarano/G. Motion) 8/1
3. Tiz True (A. Gryder/ D. Hofmans) 30/1
4. Lifeline SCRATCHED
5. The Pamplemousse (A. Solis/J. Canani) 9/5*
6. Balfour Park (B. Blank/C. Lewis) 30/1
7. Mr. Hot Stuff (C. Nakatani/E. Harty) 7/2
8. Bourbon Bay (J. Rosario/N. Drysdale) 15/1
9. Ventana (J. Rios/B. Baffert) 15/1
10.  Mark S the Cooler (J. Talamo/D. O’Neill) 15/1
11.  Unbridled Roman (M. Smith/ C. Paasch) 12/1
12.  Take the Points (G. Gomez/ T. Pletcher) 3/1

The Pamplemousse ran huge last time out after getting the perfect trip in the San Rafael (G3) on 1/17.   The son of Kafwain (Cherokee Run) has improved on the Beyer scale in each of his 4 lifetime races.  He’ll be stretching out an extra furlong today in the 1 1/8 mile Sham, but also owns a victory at 1 1/16 miles, so distance would not seem to be a concern.  A more pressing question might be what kind of pace scenario the grapefruit (in case you’ve ever wondered what “Pamplemousse” means) gets on Saturday.  Regardless, he’s clearly the horse to beat and is definitely eligible of another gate to wire romp if he gets loose on the lead.

The obvious rival will be the recent maiden graduate and full brother to Colonel John, the Eoin Harty trained Mr. Hot Stuff.  After struggling a bit in his first four races, he seemingly put it all together last out against obviously softer competition.  He’ll get the acid test today as he moves up to face tougher, although it’s not like this field is loaded with stakes winners.   Only the favorite can lay claim to that honor.  Besides The Pamplemousse, the only runners in the field with victories outside of the maiden ranks are Smart Bid and Take the Points.   Obviously he’s a thread if he runs back to his last Beyer figure. 

Looking over the rest of the field, Smart Bid is a horse I think will love the distance of the Sham, but it’s a bit of an unknown how he’ll take to the Pro Ride surface.  If you’re looking for a positive sign on his otherwise forgettable debut over synthetics last July, note that at least he was moving decently late, as indicated by the “mild rally” note in his comment line.  He’s coming off back to back wins, is trained by one of my favorites in Graham Motion, and obviously shares sires with a certain chestnut colt you might say I’m somewhat endeared to.  All of that and 8/1 make him a very attractive play underneath.

Take the Points is a horse who looks like a major threat on paper, but I’m probably going to pass at odds anything like 3/1.  Don’t get me wrong, I think this is a nice colt and he can definitely hit the board;  I’m just not fond of horses shipping from east to west.  Especially when they don’t have any workouts posted on the surface.  It’s a crap-shoot, and the odds to me don’t favor the risk/reward potential. 

Ventana is a runner who might be worth giving another look.  He was favored last out on the morning line in the San Vicente, something that many horseplayers scoffed at.  He ran 4th that day, but was only beaten 2 1/4 lengths, and a couple of the horses in that race (namely the winning filly Evita Argentina and runner up Leedstheway) are horses who should do well this year.  He offered no value in the San Vicente as chalk, but now the opposite is true as he’s 15/1 on the morning line.  I think when all is said and done he is a classier horse than many of the runners in here, so I’ll be using him underneath as well.

Bourbon Bay is another I think could be sneaky in here at long odds.  While his previous running has been on the grass for trainer Neil Drysdale, I like that he’s improved with each start.  Another move forward puts him right in contention in this field.   He handled stakes company rather well last November in the Generous (G3) at Hollywood.  Still, he’s been off for essentially 3 months, so his prospects at winning are rather slim.   As an underneath play on the exotics he should offer some value though. 

I’ll eat chalk here and play The Pamplemousse for the win.  I don’t expect very good odds on him though, so we’ll likely pass on the win bet and focus instead on the 10 cent Superfecta.   Ill use Smart Bid, Mr. Hot Stuff, and Ventana in place.  Add to them Bourbon Bay and Take the Points for show.  I’ll toss in Unbridled Roman and Mark S the Cooler for 4th.

Selections:

$.10 Superfecta: 5/2,7,9/2,7,8,9,12/2,7,8,9,10,11,12 ($6.00)