Quality Road deserves top ranking

29 03 2009

A horse, a horse, my kingdom for a horse!

Now that Quality Road has dispatched the heavily hyped Dunkirk, just where does the son of Elusive Quality belong in the rankings for the 2009 Kentucky Derby?  All the way at the top, if you ask me.  His gutsy performance to hold off the late charging Dunkirk in the stretch at Gulfstream Park has convinced me that this lightly raced colt will be a force to be reckoned with come the first Saturday in May. 

Quality Road finds another gear to hold off Dunkirk in the Florida Derby

Ranking the Derby contenders gets incredibly complex, if you allow it to be so, due to the different paths being taken by the various runners.  Without an opportunity to size them up in face-to-face competition, one is left using the non-scientific approach of interjecting much speculation into their analysis.   Even taking things as straightforward as final time comparisons cannot be considered truly “apples to apples” due to the differences in surface at each of the race tracks in question. 

So what are we to make of Quality Road?  How does he match up with the other big guns?   At some point you have to draw the line between hype and actual production.  It’s a blurred line and one that is constantly changing as the situation unfolds.  For example, I believe that right now you have to rank Friesan Fire and Quality Road above the other contenders.  They’ve finished their preps, and they’ve both done so in impressive style.  Just around the corner, however, we’ll get our best read on the contenders coming from California (in the Santa Anita Derby), and New York (In the Wood Memorial), so things are not set in stone at the top of the list.  

Let’s start by looking at the top 5:

  • #1 Quality Road
  • #2 Friesan Fire
  • #3 The Pamplemousse
  • #4 Pioneer of the Nile
  • #5  I Want Revenge

I don’t think there’s much variety out there in terms of who belongs in the top 5.  The argument seems to be  where these top 5 should be ranked in relation to one another.  Disregard the #1 and #2 rankings for a moment on Friesan Fire and Quality Road.  Truth be told I consider them to be dual #1 contenders.  Both colts used similar stalk and pounce approaches to cash in on their recent victories.  Friesan Fire had to run down the speedy Papa Clem early on, and then hold off late charges from Terrain and Giant Oak.   Many of the bigger named horses who gave the Louisiana Derby such a deep feel prior to the race (Flying Pegasus, Patena, etc.) simply did not fire for whatever reason, leaving Friesan Fire with a relatively easy victory once he reeled in Papa Clem.   Quality Road didn’t face a field quite as deep on paper, but the big names in the Florida Derby did show up to run, as he had to hold off the late charging Dunkirk in the stretch (as well as Theregoesjojo who ran well enough for show) after dispensing with longshot pacesetter Casey’s on Call.  The end result?  I think you’ve got to have these guys one, two.  Where you rank them amongst each other is open for debate, but for now I”ll give the slight edge to Quality Road, and continue to be disappointed that I could not select the horse in the Road to the Roses challenge.

Moving down the list, the next great debate is what to do with the California runners and I Want Revenge.  Obviously if I Want Revenge had remained in California, this would be easier to do from a direct comparison standpoint.  However, that would have left us completely unable to determine how these colts might run once they tried the dirt for the first time.  With the defections of Papa Clem and I Want Revenge and the subsequent success they’ve enjoyed, their would seem to be much promise for the colts currently leading the California Division;  The Pamplemousse and Pioneer of the Nile.  Until Pioneer of the Nile shows he can rundown The Grapefruit (which he very well might do in the upcoming Santa Anita Derby), I”ll continue to rank The Pamplemousse ahead of him.  With The Pamplemousse firmly entrenched at 3rd, that makes things simple for me as I can look at the next two and say “well, Pioneer of the Nile defeated I Want Revenge head to head, so he stays on top for now.”  Of course, it’s never quite that easy, and the 113 Beyer figure that I Want Revenge earned on dirt in the Gotham suggests he’s just as capable as Quality Road.  Here’s one last factor in stacking them as I have above.  Pioneer of the Nile and The Pamplemousse will square off face to face next weekend at Santa Anita, so we’ll get a much clearer read on how they match up.  I Want Revenge will face a challenge from some of the lower ranked contenders, and could be vulnerable if a runner like Imperial Council rises to the occasion. 

  • #6 Old Fashioned
  • #7 Imperial Council
  • #8 Dunkirk
  • #9  Chocolate Candy
  • #10 Win Willy

Things get a bit fuzzier once you’re outside of the top 5.   The first challenge is what to do with the falling stock of both Dunkirk and Old Fashioned.   Dunkirk in particular might not have enough earnings to even qualify for the Kentucky Derby, which basically makes his position on a Derby rankings list rather moot.  Let’s say he does find a way to draw into the field though.  Then what would we make of him?   Is he not good enough to merit consideration among the bigger guns?   We  must remember that the Florida Derby was this horse’s third race of his career.  There’s still a tremendous amount of room for improvement, and judging from the way this guy is bred and the fact that he’s only allowed one horse to finish in front of him so far (and did not go down without a fight), I think you’ve got to keep him around.  Ditto for Old Fashioned.  Larry Jones is simply too good a horseman for this guy to fall too far.  I’m convinced Friesan Fire is his best shot, but Old Fashioned has enough class in him to get past many in this year’s crop.  

Then you’ve got some room for “buzz” horses and longshots.  Imperial Council fits into that former category and now becomes the hype horse in the rankings.  He’ll get a shot to turn the tables on I Want Revenge in the Wood, and if he were to do so he’d have to be considered a top 5 contender in the Derby at least.  I’m still holding out hope that this guy could be the best of the Empire Maker colts this year (with all due respect to Pioneer of the Nile). 

Chocolate Candy is now the “Rodney Dangerfield” of this list.  Each week it’s someone different who gets no respect.  In CC’s case, I believe it’s because folks simply haven’t had many good looks at him..  All that will change next weekend with the Santa Anita Derby.   He needs to finish in the top 3 to warrant this ranking, but stop for a moment and consider what a shakeup it would be if he found a way to prevail?   I’m not saying that will happen, but what would the fallout be if it did?  The only thing I can find that he hasn’t done is to win a race recently. 

Lastly, there’s my longshot Win Willy, who I’m going to hold onto in this rankings until someone else forces me to remove him.   I’ll clue you in on another thought going through my mind right now that relates to this guy.  The Pamplemousse is a speedy type.  Friesan Fire, Quality Road, and even Old Fashioned like to be just off the pace anywhere from 2nd to 4th in the early running.  We just might have enough early zip up front that things could open up for a closer like this.  It might take some additional lights out speed signed up on the front end, but I’m just saying that a horse that isn’t on most people’s lists despite running a very visually impressive race to defeat the then top ranked Old Fashioned still warrants some consideration.  

So there you have it, for the moment at least.  In the spirit of the increasingly annoying Capital One credit card commercials:  “Who’s on your list? “


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Categories : Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Pioneer of the Nile, Friesan Fire, horse racing, The Pamplemousse, Quality Road, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk

Nad Al Sheba’s star studded day

27 03 2009

They’ve come from every continent in the world, and this Saturday at Nad Al Sheba many of the top thoroughbreds in the world will compete in a series of 6 graded stakes races, culminating  with the $6 million Dubai World Cup.  At this moment last year, I was nervously waiting out the final night before Curlin’s date with international destiny.  Now here we stand one full year later, and once again we cast our attention to the East and the lure of riches, fame, and glory.  While there is no Curlin in the World Cup this year, the lineup for the day in Dubai is beyond impressive.  It might as well be a mini Breeders’ Cup festival.  This, my friends, is the type of day that horse racing fans and handicappers the world over long for. 

Race 2:  The $1,000,000 Godolphin Mile (Grade 2) – 1 Mile

  • #6 Kalahari Gold 8/1
  • #4 Two Step Salsa 3/1*
  • #13 Gayego 7/2

We kick things off in the 2nd race of the day in the $1 million Godolphin Mile.  One of my early favorites from last year, Gayego, looms as a huge threat, but has drawn an outside post.  He’s also going to be stretching out to a mile again after romping in the Mahab Al Shimaal (G3) last out.   Two Step Salsa looks like his main competition on paper having picked up the services of jockey L. Dettori.  Another horse I thin has a big shot in here is Kalahari Gold for Sheikh Hamdan bin Rashin Al Maktoum.  Dijeer, on the the extreme outside, and Art of War also deserve consideration.  I’m going to make Kalahari Gold my top choice at 8/1 in a bit of an upset, but Id cover Gayego and Two Step Salsa as well if you’re wading into the pick 6 waters.

Race 3: The $2,000,000 UAE Derby (Grade 2) – 1  1/8 Miles

  • #5 Desert Party 1/1*
  • #11 Soy Libriano 10/1
  • #1 Regal Ransom 4/1

The UAE Derby provides the “prep fix” for us Kentucky Derby junkies, being the lone race on the card exclusive to three-year-olds (as well as possible grade 2 points in the Road to the Roses challenge).  Desert Party is the obvious choice here having toyed with competition last time out.  A win puts him firmly on the Derby trail, while a loss will likely cause his connections to think twice before shipping half way around the globe.  I don’t think there’s anyone in here who can beat him, but if an upset were to occur a likely candidate might be Soy Libriano from the outside.  He’s the lone entry in the field with a win at the 1 1/8 mile distance of the UAE Derby.  That’s got to count for something, right?   Regal Ransom play underneath in the exacta and trifecta wagering, along with Redding Colliery as they have both finished behind Desert Party in their last two races. 

Race 4: The $2,000,000 Dubai Golden Shaheen (Grade 2) – 6 Furlongs

  • #12 Indian Blessing 3/1*
  • #2 Big City Man 5/1
  • #7 Merchand d’Or  9/2

The Golden Shaheen is a tricky race to handicap for many U.S. players as it’s a 6 furlong sprint on a straight track.  That means we’ve no tricky turns to negotiate.   For that reason I expect the class of Indian Blessing to shine through.  I firmly beleive that 6 furlongs might be her best distance.  Ever since she lost the Acorn to Zaftig last year, I’ve been convinced that she was born to sprint, and so far she’s lived up to that billing.  This one should be quick, as there seems to be quite a bit of speed signed on.  Big City Man owns 4 victories at the 6 furlong distance and has run well at Nad Al Sheba giving him a bit of a “horse for the course” angle to consider.  He seems to always show up and run a big race and I see no reason to expect a change this weekend.  Marchand d’Or intrigues me a bit despite having not run well the last time he tried the turf to dirt angle.  He seemingly woke up the second half of last year and may have been entering this race on a 4 for 4 run had he not encountered a bit of trouble in the Hong Kong Sprint at Sha Tin last out.  Diabolocal, Force Freeze, and Lucky Quality all look useful underneath in the exotics.

Race 5: The $5,000,000 Dubai Duty Free (Grade 1) – 1  1/8 Miles (Turf)

  • #10 Archipenko 4/1*
  • #3 Vodka 10/1
  • #8 Balius 8/1

This might be the deepest field we’ll see all year.  One could make a case for virtually every runner in this field, and numerous longshots rate big chances to hit the board.  Needless to say, if you’re playing the Pick 6 this looks like the race to spread the deepest.  Ultimately I’m taking a stand against the morning line favorite, Kip Deville, as I’m not sure this is his best distance.  Yes, I know he’s exiting a victory going the same distance last out at Gulfstream against the likes of Court Vision, but I prefer him going a mile.  Archipenko is a horse I still cannot believe lost the Arlington Million last year.  He’s a better hrose than that, and proved as much by winning the Zabeel Mile over Vertigineux and Kalahari Gold (keep that in mind if my longshot wins the Godolphin Mile). Vodka is not the only female in the race, but she sure looks the best of them.  She had a horrible trip against Balius and Jay Peg in the Jebel Hatta (G2) last out and could turn the tables on them with a bit more racing luck.  Balius looks like a tough competitor in here with a big shot at long odds.  Like I said, deep field, so either go with your instincts here or spread deep.  Hell, if you can afford to, press the “All” button and hope for a bomber.  It could well happen here.  It’s actually tougher to come up with reasons why most of these runners can’t win than it is to come up with reasons why they can.  

Race 6:  The $5,000,000 Dubai Sheema Classic (Grade 1)  – 1  1/2 Miles (Turf)

  • #6 Youmzain 4/1
  • #1 Front House 6/1
  • #7 Purple Moon 6/1

We stay on the turf for the Dubai Sheema Classic, only we stretch out to a mile and a half this time.  Youmzain has amassed over $1 million more than any of the other competitors at the longer 1 1/2 mile distance.  This will mark his third attempt to reach the winner’s circle at Nad Al Sheba.  He’s been off for quite some time, but note that he did run second to Zarkava in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Grade 1) last October at Longchamp.   Zarkava woud likely crush this field, so a repeat performance puts him right in the hunt.  He’s also battled heads with the likes of Dylan Thomas and Duke of Marmalade, so he’s a proven commodity to say the least.  I’m not fond of his odds at 4/1, but he’s the top choice.  Front House and Russian Sage form a formiddable battery for South African based trainer Mike de Kock.  Front House is the more proven of the two at this distane.  It’s hard to believe you can get a horse like Red Rocks, who defeated Curlin in the Man O’ War last year at Belmont, at odds of 10/1, but he hasn’t looked nearly as good since that race. 

Race 7: The $6,000,000 Dubai World Cup (Grade 1) – 1  1/4 Miles

  • #4 Asiatic Boy 5/2
  • #10 Albertus Maximus 2/1*
  • #8 Casino Drive 6/1

I can’t help but get the feeling that Jess Jackson ought to drag Curlin out of retirement, even now just hours before the race, and send him to Dubai to show this field what a real champion looks like. Oh wait, hang on a second.  Curlin basically did that already having defeated many of these same faces last year in his record setting 7 3/4 length win.   No world beaters like that look entered here today, which oddly enough means we have ourselves a stronger betting race.  I’m seeing this one as a three horse race between the above mentioned contenders.  I give Asiatic Boy the slight nod, but to be honest I could easily see Casino Drive pulling the upset.  I’m a bit worried about the fact that Asiatic Boy doesn’t string consecuritve victories together, meaning he might be due for a defeat.  One other thing to keep in mind: At one point last year, Asiatic Boy was a perfect 5 for 5 at Nad Al Sheba.  Since then he’s gone 1 for 4.  Albertus Maximus is my U.S. play, hoping to keep a victory streak going here for the “red, white, and blue corner!”  My Indy and Well Armed deserve some consideration if they look good going to post.


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Categories : Casino Drive, Gayego, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Indian Blessing

Derby time, Florida style

26 03 2009

Another weekend, another step forward down the ole Derby trail.  On Saturday nine horses will compete for lucrative graded stakes earnings and a potential starting spot in the 2009 Kentucky Derby in the 58th running of the Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park.  In recent years the Florida Derby has become arguably the key prep race in the road to the roses, having produced future Derby winners in Big Brown (2008) , Barbaro (2006), and Monarchos (2001).   On paper this has the feeling of a two horse race, but there are a few runners who could make things interesting for the favorites.  The field sets up like this:

Past Performances available here

  1. Toby the Coal Man (J. Leparoux/ N. Zito) 10/1
  2. Quality Road (J. Velazquez/ J. Jerkens) 2/1
  3. Casey’s On Call (E. Baird/ A. Fehr) 15/1
  4. Dunkirk (G. Gomez/ T. Pletcher) 9/5*
  5. Sincero (E. Trujillo/ M. Azpurus) 20/1
  6. Theregoesjojo (K. McPeek/ K. Desormeaux) 5/1
  7. Danger to Society (M. Madrid/ R. Dutrow) 6/1
  8. Europe (C. Decarlo/ T. Pletcher) 20/1
  9. Stately Character (R. Douglas/ G. Procino) 20/1

There’s simply no getting around it.  The question everyone will be wanting to see answered is whether Dunkirk is worthy of the hype we’ve bestowed upon him in recent weeks.   To prove that he’ll have to find a way to get past a very talented Quality Road for trainer James Jerkens.  Quality Road has the obvious raw speed figure advantage, but Dunkirk is proven at the longer distance of the Florida Derby ( 1 1/8 miles), having defeated conditional allowance winners (including #5 Sincero) last out in what could only be described as a disastrous early trip.  It’s worth taking a look again at that race replay to try and form a final opinion of the son of Unbridled’s Song who sold for $3.7 million in September of 2007.

Dunkirk overcomes an extremely wide trip to crush Allowance runners at Gulfstream Park on 2/19/09

 

I’m not sure what else can be said to describe that effort short of “amazing.”   Had he not been carried so far wide, no doubt his final time and speed figures would have been boosted further.  It’s not hard to figure out why so many fans, including myself, have jumped aboard this guy’s bandwagon.   I mentioned in the last post though that he’s still got a ways to go.   This appears to be a deep crop of three-year-olds he’s in competition with (from an overall standpoint, if not necessarily in this particular field), so he”ll have to continue to improve.   As an unraced 2-year-old with such a light foundation so far coming into the Florida Derby, he’s still a bit of an unknown wild card.   In the end you’ve got to love how he finished that last race.  You get the feeling he wants more and will be ready for the step up in class.

Quality Road should not be taken lightly though.  Dismissed by yours truly in the Fountain of Youth (although I did  mention he would have a bright future in front of him), he romped over what was considered at the time to be an extremely deep group of horses, including Capt. Candyman Can, Beethoven, This One’s for Phil, Notonthesamepage, and Theregoesjojo (who he faces again today).  The son of Elusive Quality has shown he can put up big speed figures at the shorter distances and will now have to prove that he can run just as well going an extra furlong.   Judging from the way he drew off from the Fountain of Youth field,  it doesn’t look like the distance will be a huge concern.  Much like Dunkirk, it’s wise to take at least one last look at Quality Road’s performance in the Fountain of Youth.

Quality Road romps in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park on 2/28/09

 

Watching that  performance, it appears Quality Road got an almost perfect trip stalking This One’s for Phil.  I say “almost”  because there was some trouble at the start.  His running line for the race denotes “jostled start.”  In fact, it was the second such performance in a row where he’s run well after encountering some trouble at the start.   Theregoesjojo appeared to be running well for place, and it’s important to note that Quality Road showed his class by keeping a healthy lead on him through the home stretch.  This definitely looks like a serious horse.  One could easily this race boiling down to a similar denouement, where Quality Road has to hold off the charge of Dunkirk late in the stretch.

As for the rest of the field, Theregoesjojo is an improving runner for trainer Ken McPeek that will likely take some heavy play in the exacta pools.  Like Quality Road, he’ll have to prove he can run to those big speed figures stretching out an extra furlong.  In yet another similarity with Quality Road, he also encountered some trouble at the break in the Fountain of Youth by “stepping slow.”  The way he was moving late I think this one gets the added distance with no problems. 

Danger to Society is the x-factor (beyond Dunkirk) who could make his presence felt.  You can never count Rick Dutrow out of a horse race (as much as it pains me to say it), and he could get lucky with this son of Harlan’s Holiday who appeared to be progressing nicely before hitting a bump in the road in the Holy Bull in late January.  They’ve had him on the shelf for a long time since transferring  to Dutrow after the Holy Bull, and his workout tab for March suggests the light may have turned back on.  He could still be any kind of horse, and I’ll be expecting an improved performance in his first effort for his new barn.

If you’re looking for some longshots to round out your exotic wagers, consider the inside runner, Toby the Coal Man for trainer Nick Zito.  Yes, it took him 6 attempts to finally break his maiden last out, but his last two efforts have been tremendous improvements.  He had to fight to bust out of the maiden ranks last out as he was set down for an all out drive in the stretch to reach the promised land of the winner’s circle.  This is an ambitious placement on paper, but he has attracted jockey Julien Leparoux.  I’m guessing the worm has turned with this one.  Look for another step forward and a real shot of hitting the board.

Sincero is another who keeps coming up in my handicapping as a play underneath.  I doubt he can finish higher than 3rd, but he has gone up against some classy colts compared to some of the other long shots on the board.  Note that he has matched up against Big Drama, Free Country, Take the Points, and Dunkirk.  He’s another runner with a penchant for trouble in his running lines.  If he ever puts it all together he’s eligible to move forward. 

Ultimately, if you’re playing the superfecta, I think you’ve got to cover the field for the bottom of the ticket.  Even the longest shot on the board, Europe, looks a little worrisome to leave off completely.  True, he showed absolutely nothing in his debut, but he’s as well bred as his stablemate Dunkirk and his morning workouts suggest he’s more talented than we saw in that effort.  It’s probably asking a bit much for him to step up to the Grade 1 level, but it’s conceivable he could pick up a small share of the earnings. 

I’ll go with Dunkirk for the win, but you won’t hear and argument from me for those who choose to stand against him and take a possibly more prudent “wait and see” approach.  I’m banking on the fact that the distance will be more to his liking than it will be for Quality Road.  That beings said,  I expect Quality Road will make him earn it if he’s to pass him in the stretch.  I’ll use Quality Road, Danger to Society, and Theregoesjojo for place.   Add in Toby the Coal Man and Sincero for show, and then cover the field for the bottom and hope for a bomber.

Selections:

  • $20 Win #4 Dunkirk
  • $.10 Superfecta:  4/2,6,7/1,2,5,6,7/ ALL  ($8.40)

 


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Categories : Dunkirk, Gulfstream Park, Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Quality Road

How deep?

22 03 2009

“There were these two fellars standin’ on a bridge, a-goin’ to the bathroom. One fellar said, “The water’s cold” and the other fellar said, “The water’s deep”. I believe one fella come from Arkansas. Get it?” 

Billy Bob Thornton’s memorable character Carl from the film Sling Blade  may as well have been talking about the depth in this year’s crop of 3-year-old thoroughbreds when he uttered the memorable phrase quoted above.  While everyone, including myself, plods away at the ubiquitous “top 10″  lists for the 2009 Kentucky Derby, there’s an interesting story line running right beneath the surface that is only beginning to be touched upon.  If we are willing to accept, as many are, that 2007 was a uniquely deep year for 3-year-old thoroughbreds,  and that the emergence of Street Sense, Curlin, Hard Spun, Any Given Saturday, and the filly Rags to Riches represented one of the  most talented overall crops our eyes have been blessed to see – than the prospects for 2009 look extremely bright.  While this past weekend at Turfway Park was hardly the type of high-profile marquee racing action needed to return the sport to it’s glory days, some happenings throughout the week provided clues as to just how deep this field may be.

So, with gratuitous top 10 lists on the brain, Let’s start by taking a look at our current rankings here at The Aspiring Horseplayer.

(Note: until they are definitively pointed to the Derby, I’m assuming Stardom Bound and Rachel Alexandra are headed to the Oaks…for the record I’d probably be inclined to rank Rachel Alexandra #1 overall at the moment if she did point to the Derby, and if she weren’t #1,  she’d be darn close.  Stardom Bound is more difficult to rank.  My heart says to rank her high, but my gut tells me no higher than 4th behind Pioneer and The Pamplemousse…for the moment that is).  

  • #1 Friesan Fire – deserves to be ranked #1 off his impressive victory in the Louisiana Derby.  Appears to be getting a rest before the Triple Crown, something that will cause some to downgrade his chances slightly.  Trainer Larry Jones is as good as they get, so if he’s training smartly once he sets foot at Churchill, he’ll be hard to dethrone as the likely favorite.

 

 

  • #3 Pioneer of the Nile -  I started out the year determined to not become over-infatuated with the California runners, and look what’s become of me!   “Look what they done to my Santino!  Look what they done to my boy!!! “  He can leapfrog The Grapefruit if he can beat him in the Santa Anita Derby in two weeks.  It’s showdown time in the wild, wild, west.

 

  • #4 Dunkirk -  It’s almost inexplicable.  A colt with $0 in graded stakes earnings just over a month before the Kentucky Derby, who did not run as a 2-year-old, is taking the future wagers action by storm!  Clearly we all saw something in that allowance victory that hints at greatness.  My thought after watching the race was that it reminded me of seeing Curlin or Big Brown in their 3-year-old allowance victories.  I think that’s exactly why this guy is so popular.  People see his potential and they associate the recent success of Curlin and Big Brown off of similarly lightly raced resumes.  It’s just that we must temper that expectation a bit by the realization that he’s certainly running in a deeper crop of 3-year olds than Big Brown did, and he might be running in a deeper crop than even Curlin did…and he’s even more lightly raced than those two were.  He’s hyper-lightly raced.   We’ll find out if he’s the real deal in the Florida Derby next weekend.  A loss will send him plummeting.  A win might make him the Derby favorite. 

 

  • #5  I Want Revenge -  it’s not improper to actually have this guy ranked ahead of the other California colts (and Dunkirk) all the way up at #2 by virtue of his impressive 113 Beyer performance in the G3 Gotham.  He’ll get tested again in the Wood in April and bounce candidates will likely be looking to feast, but now there’s rumor that IEAH is attempting to purchase the colt after their “A-horse” (Patena) did not run particularly well in the Louisiana Derby last weekend.  Is Joe Talamo going to win a Derby before he’s old enough to legally consume a Mint Julep in the winner’s circle? 

 

  • #6 Quality Road -  he’s often my forgotten horse.  My head-scratcher.  Like I Want Revenge, he also owns a 113 Beyer figure that seemingly towers over the competition.   He’ll have to prove he can do that going longer than the abbreviated Fountain of Youth.  He’s capable of beating the runners ranked above him.

 

  • #7  Old Fashioned -  Hard to drop him too far off one lifetime defeat, but things don’t seem to be going the right way here.   Was the near-consensus #1 just a few weeks ago.

 

  • #8 Win Willy -  I’m hoping to be out in front of the bandwagon on this guy.   Looking over his effort against Old Fashioned, I can’t help but sing:  “…then I saw his face.  Now I’m a believer!”  Or in keeping with my Sling Blade theme, I could always fall back upon the following defense if this guy fails:  “They turned me loose from the nervous hospital!”  It is interesting to keep in mind that someone  (IEAH?) tried to purchase him after his upset of Old Fashioned, so at least someone else out there liked what they saw as well. 

 

  • #9 Imperial Council -  Does anyone really think this guy can’t jump up and win the Wood?  If he does take the Wood, he’ll  be “Rocket man, burning out his fuse up here alone!” and probably have the fastest rising stock of the group.  If he turns in a sub-par performance and I Want Revenge waltzes away with it, it’ll be back to square one. 

 

  • #10 Chocolate Candy – We haven’t heard from this guy in a while, but he’ll get a crack at Pioneer of the Nile and The Pamplemousse in the Santa Anita Derby this April.  He appears to be the third best of that group, but I’m not ready to count him out of this fight just yet.  It’ll likely be a small but talented field in the SA Derby, including Mr. Hot Stuff. 

 

Most fans have some combination of the same runners in their top selections: Friesan Fire, The Pamplemousse, Pioneer of the Nile,  Dunkirk, and I Want Revenge.

Depending upon how one feels the “filly saga” will play out, Rachel Alexandra and Stardom Bound certainly deserve mention among those competitors.  Rachel Alexandra in particular could be the best of the entire crop, as she’s been running faster than the boys on dirt, but for now appears bound for the Oaks.   Stardom Bound is a gutsy competitor who reminds me  in many ways of Zenyatta with her sheer determination to win.  Many are holding out hope that IEAH decides to point her to the Derby instead of the Oaks.

Now here’s where it gets interesting.  The logical win candidates for the Derby do not end with those horses.  You’ve got to at least mention Quality Road and his gaudy 113 Beyer.   After all, that’s the same figure I Want Revenge earned.  It’s just that Quality Road only went a mile, but he looks like he’ll go longer with no problems. 

Then there’s Dunkirk.  He’s the x-factor of the crop as he’s been heavily played in future wager pools despite having a whopping total of $0 in graded stakes earnings.  It’ll be all or nothing for Dunkirk in the Florida Derby next week.   If he’s harassed by the Wehrmacht and the Luftwaffe entering the far turn…no wait, scratch that…wrong Dunkirk.  Although he does need a clean trip.

How about Old Fashioned?  Remember that guy?  Just a few weeks ago he was the consensus #1 among most of us pundits, now here he is towards the bottom of the list.   He’s only been beaten by 1 horse in his career, but there are storm clouds on the horizon.  Larry Jones has stated Friesan Fire is the best colt in his barn, and there was a comment made during the ESPN broadcast yesterday that it’s “now or never” for Old Fashioned.   He’s got the talent and class to reach down and run a big one, but as of right now I think you have to rate others higher. 

So who was that one horse who managed defeat Old Fashioned?  Oh yeah, Win Willy!  Honestly he’s the guy I”ll probably take the most flak (there’s my 2nd gratuitous World War 2 reference of the post) for continuing to rank in my top contenders.  I’m trusting my eyes on this one, and my eyes told me that this was a fine colt with big races still ahead of him.

That’s 10 horses already that have legitimate shots to win the Derby.  And guess what, we can still go deeper.   Imperial Council will go into the Wood as either the 2nd or 3rd choice on the morning line behind I Want Revenge and (possibly) Quality Road.   He may not have the same foundation as Pioneer of the Nile, but he could still wind up being the best of the Empire Maker offspring in this crop.   It wouldn’t take much to imagine him finding a way to prevail in the Wood, and if he did than he’d obviously leapfrog I Want Revenge. 

And the list goes on and on.  I’m going to bypass Dubai for the time being.  Suffice to say there are a couple of runners who could still ship to the U.S. and make some noise this spring, but until they do I’ll view them as outsiders.  Add to this list the likes of Chocolate Candy, Musket Man, Theregoesjojo,  and Papa Clem and you get the picture. 

 So how deep is this year’s field?   it’s Arkansas -fellar pissin’ on a bridge deep!   That’s how deep we’re talking about here.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail, Kentucky Derby, Stardom Bound, Pioneer of the Nile, Friesan Fire, Old Fashioned, horse racing

Turfway’s double feature in the spotlight

20 03 2009

If you’re like me, you’re champing at the bit to see more of the improving 3-year-old crop we’ve been treated to so far this year.  One gets the sense that next “big moments” in the sport are just a few weeks away.  All around us the signs point to the time of year we dream of in our slumber.  Spring is finally breaking through to the Mid Atlantic, and will soon envelop the East Coast in full.  Attention turns as the first Saturday in May approaches in an unstoppable procession. 

So, what have we this week?  One might say “not much” on the surface, but I tend to think we’ll wind up with a fairly competitive couple of stakes down at Turfway.   The Rushaway will lead things off in an increasingly rare national  broadcast on ESPN, while the feature race of the day, the Grade 2 Lane’s End, is scheduled to go off at 5:43 PM (ET)

Now, I’m all in favor of national broadcasts, especially in light of the Take Back Saturday idea I keep droning on about.  That being said, wouldn’t it have made more sense to feature some of the races we’ve seen over the last few weekends instead?   Don’t get me wrong…we’ve got some fine colts to watch in the Lane’s End, but wouldn’t showcasing Friesan Fire or Pioneer of the Nile have been more beneficial?   What about The Pamplemousse, Old Fashioned, or I Want Revenge?  While we’re at it, let’s not forget the fillies Stardom Bound and Rachel Alexandra.   Fine equine ambassadors all.  Tell a continuous story….give it context and relevance… well, you’ve heard it all before  so I’ll spare you the sermon.

We’ll start by taking a look at the Rushaway.

TP Race 9 – $100,000 Rushaway (1 1/16 Miles)

  1. Ninth Client (I. Ocampo/D. Wayne Lukas) 10/1
  2. Ziegfeld (G. Gomez/D. Romans) 3/1
  3. Fitzaslew (K. Desormeaux/K. McPeek) 5/2*
  4. Cliffy’s Future (J. Castanon/D. Miller) 9/2
  5. No Inflation (C. Velasquez/T. Proctor) 3/1
  6. Summer’s Empire (E. Prado/A. Mitchell) 6/1
  7. Sunday’s Baby Grand (E. Zuniga/J. Christenson) 30/1
  8. Toccet Rocket (T. Pompell/B. La Mew) 20/1

Past performances available here

I could make a case for 5 of the 8 horses running here, including Fitzaslew, Ziegfeld, Summer’s Empire, No Inflation, and Cliffy’s Future.  With the reduced field size of 8 runners, the risk to reward ratio figures to be flattened on most, if not all of those runners.

Obviously Fitzaslew (Seattle Fitz) looks plenty dangerous and is a decent  favorite on the morning line.  That being said, there are some glaring questions that in my mind surpass the respectable speed figures.  Firstly, he’s making the dreaded dirt to synthetic switch.   This is another topic I harp on quite frequently.  Suffice to say I’m much more comfortable with synthetics to dirt than the other way around.  Add to the equation that we can’t be certain Fitzaslew really wants to go long, and there’s reason to look a bit deeper for your win wagers.  Get off the chalk in this one.  Make him beat you if he can.

Two horses that look very interesting as alternatives are Summer’s Empire and No Inflation.  With Summer’s Empire this might seem  a bit hypocritical from my thoughts on dirt to synthetics, but I’m going to guess that this Empire Maker colt will run well tomorrow.  I suspect handicappers may be inclined to shy away from him due to three seemingly sub-par performances over the synthetics to start his career.  I’m willing to forgive those efforts. I chalk them up to being a rookie, running deceptively competitive in his second start, and then having all kinds of trouble (off slowly, bleeding) in his third start.  I’m also willing to forgive his dismal 12th place (beaten 26 lengths) effort last out in the Risen Star.  He was hung wide that day and simply outrun by a very strong field (Friesan Fire, Flying Pegasus, Uno Mas, etc.).  He makes a lot of sense at decent odds. 

No Inflation might get overlooked here as well. The son of Repriced has won on both synthetics and turf, which makes him a very dangerous commodity in this race.  All one has to do is forgive his lone dirt effort and this horse’s running lines suddenly look very strong against this field.  He’s also training well and has shown he can handle going a route distance.   All this guy has to do is make a solid post parade impression and he might well be the play.

Ziegfeld looks like an intriguing runner here as well.  He’s not going to face the likes of Dunkirk (or at least who we think Dunkirk is at this point in time) in this field.   Even looking at that race it appears he was in contention before encountering some trouble.  He’s yet another to keep an eye on in the post parade.  The jockey switch to Garrett Gomez will undoubtedly attract many bettors.  Also note that last bullet workout on 3/14.   The son of Elusive Quality has every right to move forward this weekend. Then again, there’s that nagging dirt to synthetics question to deal with.

Then there’s Cliffy’s Future.   He certainly looks like he could be difficult in this field.  He might only have one win, but he’s been in the thick of things on several occasions and should be again this weekend. 

It’ll come down to the post parade for final selections, but I’m leaning towards Summer’s Empire  or No Inflation here for the win.   I’d add in the other win candidates for the bottoms of the exacta and trifecta. 

TP R10 – The Grade 2 Lane’s End (1 1/8 Miles)

  1.  Hold Me Back (K. Desormeaux/W. Mott) 6/1
  2. Bittel Road (G. Gomez/ T. Pletcher) 5/2*
  3. A. P. Cardinal (C. Velasquez/ K. McLaughlin) 10/1
  4. West Side Bernie (E. Prado/ K. Breen) 3/1
  5. Jack Spratt (J. Leparoux/M. Maker) 8/1
  6. Parade Clown (E. Coa/K. Ball) 10/1
  7. Bruce N Autumn (V. Lebron/ D. Romans) 20/1
  8. Orthodox (J. Castanon/ J. Glenney) 10/1
  9. Loch Dubh (C. Borel/ J. Talley) 20/1
  10.  Flying Private (I. Ocampo/ D. W. Lukas) 12/1
  11.  Dynamite Bob (M. Guzman/ J. Lopez) 30/1
  12.  Proceed Bee (R. Prescott/T. Gestes) 12/1

Past performances available here

Right away I’m a bit surprised.  I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that the public will make West Side Bernie the post time favorite.  The son of Bernstein has yet to run a bad race, and is seemingly on the improve.  I actually based my initial handicapping on the assumption that he’d be a strong favorite here.   A win on Saturday and he’s tossed his name into the Derby contender ring.  True, he’s going from the dirt back to synthetics, but with West Side Bernie you can be comforted  in knowing that he’s triumphed on the artificial footing here at Turfway before.  There is one other thing I’ve got to say though.  I’m not a fan of the Delta Jackpot.  In fact,  I consider it to be the most overrated race in all of thoroughbred racing, with a purse that far exceeds the true quality of the race.  I suspect the lure of big bucks will eventually change that and turn the race into a key one, but for now I subconsciously downgrade even those runners who win that race, and ‘Bernie was a clear second (beaten 1 length).

The horse I was hoping (and still hope) to catch at decent odds?  Bittel Road.  I had thought that his recent running lines, including a pair of 4th place finishes, a place, and a dismal 8th in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf last October would have downgraded his odds, but evidently the power of a proven turf/synthetic runner is too hard to ignore.  He’ll be facing much less than the trio of Pioneer of the Nile, I Want Revenge, and Papa Clem that he ran into last out in the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita.  Garrett Gomez has travelled to ride him, and one gets the feeling that Todd Pletcher cannot be ignored with a chance to bring a runner like this along just in time for the Triple Crown.   Is he that quality of horse?  I sincerely doubt it, but he’s good enough to defeat this field.

Parade Clown is another runner with proven form over the synthetics. His last four races stack up very nicely with some of the other contendors in here.  His “hit or miss” recent style would seem to suggest he’s due for a solid outing.  Of the longer shots in the field he’s probably got the best chance. 

I’ll probably play the odds with West Side Bernie and Bittel Road.  Whoever offers the most value will likely be the play as I could see either horse winning.   For now I’ll go with Bittle Road, with West Side Bernie, Parade Clown, and A. P. Cardinal in place.  On the bottom of the trifecta I’ll add in Hold Me Back and Proceed Bee.

2/3,4,6/1,3,4,6,12

Best of luck to all! 

I’ll be off to a birthday party for our eldest son earlier in the day, and must hope I’m home in time to see the post parade.  Next weekend things really heat up with the Florida Derby(G1), the Swale (G2), and the UAE Derby (G2), so be wise and pace yourself.  Remember: it’s a route not a sprint!  Yeah…or something like that.


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Kentucky Derby Trail, Turfway Park

Win Willy defeats Old Fashioned in a Rebel shocker

14 03 2009

 

Every so often the game of thoroughbred horse racing reminds you that there is a reason they run the races and don’t simply award purse money based on who looks the most formidable on paper.  This Saturday at Oaklawn Park, the near consensus top selection at the moment for the 2009 Kentucky Derby, Old Fashioned, was upset by 50-1 longshot Win Willy in the (G2) Rebel. 

Results Chart

So what happened?   Well, in my opinion he simply got too close to a hot early pace.  After starting the race out in front, Ramon Dominguez allowed John Court and Silver City to set the early pace, and that they did ripping off splits of :22.54 and :46.07. 

Midway through the turn, Old Fashioned took the lead after an opening 3/4 of a mile in 1:11.67.  Entering the stretch it looked like it might be smooth sailing for the Larry Jones trained colt,  as he had opened up a 2 length advantage over Silver City. 

However, what you can  see by looking closely towards the rear of the pack in the replay above (pay special attention at the 1:19 – 1:22 mark) is that Win Willy was absolutely blowing past rivals on his last-to-first move.  At the top of the stretch Win Willy was hung a bit wide but continued to explode down the center of the track.

Suddenly it became clear that Old Fashioned was in hot water.  In a race that reminded me very much of the thrilling finish to the 2007 Preakness, Old Fashioned tried desperately to hold on begging for the wire, but ultimately came up short as Win Willy surged past him for the upset of the day.  A valiant effort indeed on the part of Old Fashioned, but he is now undefeated no more.

Win Willy crossed the wire in 1:44.41 and returned $115.60 for the win.  So much for obvious selections, huh? 

A closer look at Win Willy reveals that perhaps we should not have allowed him to get away at such generous odds.  The colt is clearly improving (well, clearly with the benefit of hindsight, that is), and was sired by Kentucky Derby champion Monarchos.  Now that he’s shown he can close into a swift pace going a route of ground, there’s reason to suspect today’s performance was not a fluke. 

So now what becomes of the ubiquitous Derby lists that abound on the blogosphere?  Well, I’ll take first crack at a revamped top 10 in light of all the happenings this weekend.

  1. Friesan Fire – welcome to the top of the mountain to Larry Jones “other” colt.
  2. The Pamplemousse – seems to be the A-horse of the California circuit
  3. Dunkirk - now becomes the horse who must live up to the hype
  4. Old Fashioned – can’t drop him too far off that performance in the Rebel
  5. Pioneer of the Nile – showdown looming with The Pamplemousse in April.
  6. I Want Revenge – dominating 8 length win in the Gotham has his stock rising
  7. Chocolate Candy – interested to see where this runner winds up next.
  8. Quality Road -  FOY winner will need to continue to step forward
  9. Musket Man - won a thriller in the TB Derby
  10. Win Willy – knock off the #1 seed and you earn yourself a seat at the table.

If you’re playing along in the Road to the Roses challenge, you’ll be able to add up to 3 additional runners to your stable this week starting on Monday.  Dunkirk, The Pamplemousse, and I Want Revenge will likely be my additions. 


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Oaklawn Park, Old Fashioned

Friesan Fire crushes the Louisiana Derby

14 03 2009

 

Going into Saturday’s prep races, many horseplayers (myself included) would’ve confidently listed Old Fashioned as trainer Larry Jones top colt on the Kentucky Derby trail.  After Friesan Fire’s impressive victory in the $600,000 Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds, I’m not so certain that’s the case anymore.

Results Chart

The combination of Friesan Fire’s dominating victory in the Louisiana Derby and Old Fashioned’s stunning defeat in the Rebel, the Derby lists of horseplayers all over the country are going to get quite a shakeup.  Adding to the confusion will be that the highly regarded Rick Dutrow colt Patena and the Ralph Nicks trained Flying Pegasus did not run particularly impressive races in the Louisiana Derby.  They figure to be desperate for graded stakes earnings if they are still being pointed towards the Kentucky Derby this May.  If Patena doesn’t make it in for IEAH Stables, might that put more focus back on a runner like Stardom Bound?  It’s possible. 

Papa Clem, the California shipper who was rumored to have been a bit unhappy after arriving in Louisiana, was the early pace setter.  Friesan Fire tracked early on along with Flying Pegasus and Soul Warrior.  Just after the opening quarter in :24.12, jockey Gabriel Saez moved Friesan Fire into 2nd position behind Papa Clem.  Papa Clem continued to lead through the opening half-mile in :48.75, but Friesan Fire was already gaining ground with every step. 

Saez was patient with Friesan Fire, only firing to the lead once in the stretch.  Suddenly he was opening up an ever widening gap behind himself and the rapidly fading Papa Clem, who was coming back to the rest of the field.  It was never in doubt for a moment once the real running began. 

The winning time for Friesan Fire in the 1 1/16 Mile Louisiana Derby was 1:43.46.  Friesan Fire returned $6.40 to his supporters for the win.

The impressive performance boosts Friesan Fire’s lifetime earnings to over $600,000 with over $500,00 of that total in the form of all important graded stakes earnings.  He’s essentially a lock as of right now for the Kentucky Derby this May.   The win also allowed  the son of A.P. Indy (Seattle Slew) to complete the sweep of the LeComte (Grade 3) and the Risen Star (Grade 3) to go along with the Louisiana Derby.

If America is looking for a new Derby favorite….why not this guy?  He’s becoming the Chris Carter of the 3-year-old division.  All he does is win races.  And he’s improving.  Perhaps it’s high time he’s earned a respected position amongst the Derby contenders. 

Hats off to Larry Jones and Gabriel Saez.  If I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again – the most formidable human connection battery in the U.S. when it comes to 3-year-old  stakes races.  I was lucky enough to have each of them in the Road to the Roses fantasy challenge. 

Will we see Friesan Fire again before the Kentucky Derby?  I’m not so sure.  Jones is a patient fellow and may prefer to take his time now that his entry is assured.  I’d expect him to ship well in advance of the Derby to get some works in over the track at Churchill.  He trained extremely well at Fair Grounds prior to his recent victories.  If  he shows signs of taking to the Churchill dirt, he will warrant serious attention in the Derby. 

It’s also worth noting that while Papa Clem was fading late, he did manage to hold on for place, which means that the two recent California shippers that had recent experience against Pioneer of the Nile have run 1, 2 in the Gotham and the Louisiana Derby, respectively.


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Categories : Horse Racing News, Handicapping Selections, Kentucky Derby Trail, Fair Grounds, Friesan Fire, horse racing

Pioneer of the Nile guts it out to win the (G2) San Felipe

14 03 2009

 

Bob Baffert trained Pioneer of the Nile was all out in the stretch, but was able to maintain his drive and hold off the late charging Feisty Suances and Jeranimo to prevail in Saturday’s 72nd running of the $200,000 San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita.  The victory was the third in a row at the graded stakes level and boosted the lifetime earnings of Pioneer of the Nile to $784,200 in 7 lifetime starts.  Even more importantly, he’s now earned $240,000 so far this year having prevailed in the Robert B. Lewis (G2) last February. 

Results Chart

At the beginning of the race, jockey Joe Talamo sent speedy outside runner New Bay to the front, where he was able to set opening fractions of :23.96 and :48.60.   Pioneer of the Nile tracked about 4-5 lengths off of New Bay in the early going and began to move forward near the half-mile pole.   Once in the turn, jockey Garrett Gomez asked Pioneer for his run, and he made his bid with about 2 furlongs remaining.  He was able to pass New Bay entering the stretch, and then had to hold off the late charges of Feisty Suances and Jeranimo, who were running well late.

Pioneer of the Nile crossed the wire in the 1 1/16 mile San Felipe in  1:43. 35.  Sent off as the 1/5  favorite, he returned $2.60 for the win.  The $2 Trifecta with Feisty Suances in place and Jeranimo in show returned $72.20. 

The win was a sweet one for yours truly as I have both Pioneer of the Nile and jockey Garrett Gomez in the Road to the Roses challenge. 

Up next for the son of Empire Maker will be a showdown with The Pamplemousse  in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 4th.  Judging from what we’ve seen, he’ll likely have his hands full with The Grapefruit.   All of ‘Pioneer’s recent wins have been close though, so he is definitely a horse with some guts when it counts.   It is worth keeping in mind though that The Pamplemousse set early splits of :23 flat and :46 and change in his romp in the Sham on the last day in February. 

There’s still a chance that runners like Chocolate Candy and Stardom Bound could draw into the Santa Anita Derby, making it infinitely more interesting than the current 2-horse-race.  I expect Bob Baffert will have Pioneer of the Nile ready for a big effort in April.  It’s just that he’ll need his absolute best to get past The Pamplemousse.  However, you know what they say.  They all put their horseshoes on one hoof at a time.  A lesson we would be subjected to  in Arkansas before the day was through. 

 


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Categories : Handicapping Selections, horse racing, Horse Racing News, Kentucky Derby Trail, Pioneer of the Nile, Santa Anita

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