THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

Pioneer of the Nile, the improving son of Empire Maker who has already prevailed in the CashCall Futurity (Grade 1) and Robert B. Lewis (Grade 2) looks quite the imposing figure when glancing through the past performances of Saturday’s Santa Anita card.  Only six challengers have answered the call.  The field for the 72nd running of the 1 1/16 mile San Felipe (Grade 2) sets up like this:

Past Performances available here

1. He’s Really Big (A. Gryder/ R. Becerra) 30/1
2. Pioneer of the Nile (G. Gomez/B. Baffert) 2/5*
3. Feisty Suances (D. Flores/ D. Vienna) 10/1
4. Shafted (J. Rosario/M. Casse) 8/1
5. Jeranimo (B. Blanc/M. Ponder) 20/1
6. Kelly Leak (V. Espinoza/ M. Machowsky)  6/1
7. New Bay (J. Talamo/ R. Mandella) 8/1

Towering.  Imposing.  Daunting.  How else can one describe how this one looks on paper?  But wait!  What’s this?  We must keep in mind that Pioneer of the Nile has likely already stamped his Kentucky Derby ticket, and now has his eyes cast firmly towards April as dreams of a victory in the Santa Anita Derby fill his connection’s heads.  Might there be an opportunity for an upset?   Not likely, in my opinion.  Trainer Bob Baffert is a shrewd horsemen.  He knows how to have his horses primed for peak performances when it counts.  While this Saturday is not one of those days, it won’t take his best effort to defeat this field. 

We last saw ‘Pioneer prevailing over two extremely good looking colts;  Papa Clem and the recently crowned Gotham champion I Want Revenge.   I’d give either of those two a tremendous shot at turning the tables here today, but alas ‘Revenge has gone eastward, and so hath Papa Clem.  Instead, we get a few recent allowance winners who would appear capable of hitting the board on the bottom of exotic wagers.

Kelly Leak is a horse I have a lot of respect for.  He stands as the obvious second choice at 6/1 and will likely take a healthy dose of exacta play.  He’s gutsy enough to force his way into the picture and has been quite game in all of his 7 lifetime races, with the exception of his lone attempt as early speed in the Del Mar Futurity last September.  I think he’s got a class advantage over many of his rivals for place and show, having run well in the Sunshine Million Dash and the Eddie Logan before winning against N1X runners at the allowance level  last time out.  The question I have for Kelly is what kind of a pace he’ll get to run at today?

Feisty Sauces would appear to be the controlling speed of the race, and as lone speed warrants a big shot to hit the board.  The morning line odds of 10/1 offer ample value for such a play, and this is another who has far from humiliated himself against the likes of Chocolate Candy and Axel Foley.  The questions he’ll have to face relate to the distance (having faded in the Cal Derby) and whether he will be a bit rusty having been off for two months.   Trainer Darrell Vienna has hit off such layoffs fairly well before, and now you get D-Flo in the saddle again.  I could see this one running big for 2nd.  He might be gasping for the wire though. 

New Bay is a very interesting and improving runner for the Richard Mandella barn.  Trouble is, he’s rumored to be a potential scratch, which would make this race even less appealing to play.  Assuming he does run, the sprinter looks like he might handle the stretch out just fine, and if he does he’s a threat here.  That will be the obvious question though.  He also could be more forwardly placed in this route attempt, which could be trouble for Feisty Sauces if that one tries to get too cozy on the lead.

Jeranimo gets the award for the most bizarre name of the field, at least from a spelling standpoint.   I think he’s playable underneath, but do note that his last effort at today’s distance was a full 2 seconds and change slower than Pioneer of the Nile’s win in the ‘Lewis.   Just sayin’ .  

Shafted should turn in an improved performance.  I like the way he’s outclassed lesser quality horses (although he’s been severely trounced by the likes of Pioneer of the Nile and Patena.  He is a Mineshaft (A.P.Indy) colt with good bloodlines.  It’s just a matter of which version of him shows up?  He’s hit or miss all the way.  Catch him on a hit day and he could bring some value to the tote board.  Catch him on a miss day and  he’s not even close.   It is interesting that he’s never had a clean trip.  There’s always been some sort of trouble, usually at the start of the race.  He’s one who could put it all together still.  Certainly he has a shot for a minor award against this field.

Selections:

• $20 Win #2 Pioneer of the Nile
• $.10 Superfecta: 2/3,6,7/3,4,6,7/1,3,4,5,6,7 ($3.60)