Every so often the game of thoroughbred horse racing reminds you that there is a reason they run the races and don’t simply award purse money based on who looks the most formidable on paper. This Saturday at Oaklawn Park, the near consensus top selection at the moment for the 2009 Kentucky Derby, Old Fashioned, was upset by 50-1 longshot Win Willy in the (G2) Rebel.
So what happened? Well, in my opinion he simply got too close to a hot early pace. After starting the race out in front, Ramon Dominguez allowed John Court and Silver City to set the early pace, and that they did ripping off splits of :22.54 and :46.07.
Midway through the turn, Old Fashioned took the lead after an opening 3/4 of a mile in 1:11.67. Entering the stretch it looked like it might be smooth sailing for the Larry Jones trained colt, as he had opened up a 2 length advantage over Silver City.
However, what you can see by looking closely towards the rear of the pack in the replay above (pay special attention at the 1:19 – 1:22 mark) is that Win Willy was absolutely blowing past rivals on his last-to-first move. At the top of the stretch Win Willy was hung a bit wide but continued to explode down the center of the track.
Suddenly it became clear that Old Fashioned was in hot water. In a race that reminded me very much of the thrilling finish to the 2007 Preakness, Old Fashioned tried desperately to hold on begging for the wire, but ultimately came up short as Win Willy surged past him for the upset of the day. A valiant effort indeed on the part of Old Fashioned, but he is now undefeated no more.
Win Willy crossed the wire in 1:44.41 and returned $115.60 for the win. So much for obvious selections, huh?
A closer look at Win Willy reveals that perhaps we should not have allowed him to get away at such generous odds. The colt is clearly improving (well, clearly with the benefit of hindsight, that is), and was sired by Kentucky Derby champion Monarchos. Now that he’s shown he can close into a swift pace going a route of ground, there’s reason to suspect today’s performance was not a fluke.
So now what becomes of the ubiquitous Derby lists that abound on the blogosphere? Well, I’ll take first crack at a revamped top 10 in light of all the happenings this weekend.
-
Friesan Fire – welcome to the top of the mountain to Larry Jones “other” colt.
-
The Pamplemousse – seems to be the A-horse of the California circuit
-
Dunkirk - now becomes the horse who must live up to the hype
-
Old Fashioned – can’t drop him too far off that performance in the Rebel
-
Pioneer of the Nile – showdown looming with The Pamplemousse in April.
-
I Want Revenge – dominating 8 length win in the Gotham has his stock rising
-
Chocolate Candy – interested to see where this runner winds up next.
-
Quality Road - FOY winner will need to continue to step forward
-
Musket Man - won a thriller in the TB Derby
-
Win Willy – knock off the #1 seed and you earn yourself a seat at the table.
If you’re playing along in the Road to the Roses challenge, you’ll be able to add up to 3 additional runners to your stable this week starting on Monday. Dunkirk, The Pamplemousse, and I Want Revenge will likely be my additions.
These are my current top five and why:
1) Friesan Fire – Deserves # 1 ranking based on latest impressive win and not to mention three in a row on tough FG dirt.
2) Pioneer of the Nile – Did what he had to do on slow fractions in the Felipe. Don’t under-estimate this “cat-like” late runner when he gets to the KD . He sort of reminds me of a young developing Raven’s pass.
3) I want Revenge – Proved his mettle on dirt in a big way against weaker competition.
4) Old fashion – His race wasn’t as bad considering the hot pace and slop. If he wins the next prep, he will be back in the top three and a major competitor.
5) Papa Clan – Edges out The pamplemousse, by the smallest of margins, due to his first out in the Dirt slop 2nd. However, the grapefruit could be very special, but will have to prove it in the SA Derby, against a solid field
BMC
Correction on notes about top five (old Fashion)…. No slop in the Rebel. Just a very fast pace effected his perfromance. He should bounced back.
All worthy choices on your Top 10, but was Win Willy’s win more to his abilities or Old Fashioned misfiring, moving too soon, over confident handling on Dominguez’s part, etc. I also question Chocolate Candy and Musket Man’s inclusion based on the fields each has faced.
Another question I have about such lists: are they based on “if” the Derby were being run in a few weeks, talent displayed right now, period or looking forward to who we think will make the gate on May 2? Maybe just a logistic question, but for me, I’m thinking May 2 based upon current performances. I re-evaluate each month, so as not to be reactionary each week. Hey, but that’s me.
When I draw up April’s Derby Baker’s Dozen – Patena, Stardom Bound and Flying Pegasus will go from my list. I’m not sure who the replacements will be until I draw it up following March 28th preps.
Good question, Tony! I suppose it changes from time to time with me. Knowing that “the shuffle” would be inevitable after the recent shakeups, it’s really a more spur of the moment thing. For me, it represents if the Derby were run today, who I feel have earned a spot on a top 10 list.
There’s a host of other colts worth including…slots 7,8,9, and 10 are open for MUCH debate. I’m pretty sure the top 6 will be the same in some variation or another on most lists.
I’m obviously drawing my attention away from Dubai for the moment as well.
Re: Chocolate Candy – may not have faced much up in GG, but did run well in SoCal before then. I really thought we’d see him in the San Felipe and was kind of surprised we did not. I’m thinking there may be some thought of sending him east with the recent success of ‘Revenge and Papa Clem. He’s really a guy that’s tough to pigeon hole and I could see ranking him anywhere from 7-20 depending on how deep a list you do. I do think he suffers a bit in people’s minds because they haven’t seen him recently.
Musket Man is definitely an inclusion stemming from “what have you done for me lately?” syndrome. I admit as much. The TB Derby was quietly one of the more entertaining races of the day. I don’t think he’s a candidate to win the Derby, (not a fan of the Yonaguska pedigree), but stranger things have happened.
Trouble is, with a victory in the TB Derby, can I rank a runner like Imperial Council, who I feel has a better Derby shot, ahead of him? At some point his win has to count for something is where I was coming from.
Same thing with Win Willy – although I actually like that one a bit more. He was sired by a Derby winner, and now he’s knocked off a #1. I know he got a swift pace to run at, but he did make a heckuva move to circle the field. Hard to believe he was just a Md Sp Wt $15k winner at one point. Now he’s got 3 wins in 4 lifetime starts, with each dirt start being a significant improvement on the last. I’m seeing signs of legitimacy here.
OLD FASHIONED was well in hand and laying comfortably second in brisk fractions – then he took an easy lead but hit the 3/4 in 1.11+ and the mile in 1.38 and faded at the wire. DO NOT SEE HIM GOING ON FROM HERE TO BE A FACTOR AT CHURCHILL. WIN WILLY had a good race, HAMAZING DESTINY should improve off this race.
old fashioned still beat a lot of other horses by a large margin. keeping him..fresian fire and the mousse as my top three. still a lot of racing to be run. i also like imperial council and quality road.not giving up on the joneses!
Old Fashioned got beat by Ramon Dominguez in my opinion. I don’t know what he was thinking laying him right off that pace. He still finished over eight lengths in front of third place, so I think he’ll get the job done in the Arkansas. Remember Jones only gave him one work for the Rebel, so that probably had something to do with his second place effort.
Hey Kevin, what is the name of your stable on Road To The Roses?
I’ve got 2 listed under “The Aspiring Horseplayer” (the second is ‘The Aspiring Horseplayer Redux”). Then Amy has one just listed under her name (“Amy Stafford”). I’m the, ummmm, general manager I suppose.
Re: Old Fashioned – he’ll have better days, but I’m jumping on the Friesan Fire bandwagon. I think that colt is his best bet for the Derby. It’s also nice to see him on top of some Derby lists as he had always been given the short end of the stick (even by me) until now.
Win Willy is for real. Everyone will see for themselves 4-11-09. Bring on Old Fashioned and don’t think they will slow down the pace when 1 million is on the line. Congratulations to Mac Robertson and JER-MAR Stables on a job well done! Isn’t it great to see someone turn 3 million dollars down for a chance to make history. Priorities are obviously in tact.
[...] set by Silver City and Old Fashioned, which likely cost the Larry Jones trainee in the stretch as Win Willy was able to overcome him and pull the upset. The pace of the Arkansas Derby should be a bit slower. Coupled with the added half furlong of [...]