THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

If you’re like me, you’re champing at the bit to see more of the improving 3-year-old crop we’ve been treated to so far this year.  One gets the sense that next “big moments” in the sport are just a few weeks away.  All around us the signs point to the time of year we dream of in our slumber.  Spring is finally breaking through to the Mid Atlantic, and will soon envelop the East Coast in full.  Attention turns as the first Saturday in May approaches in an unstoppable procession. 

So, what have we this week?  One might say “not much” on the surface, but I tend to think we’ll wind up with a fairly competitive couple of stakes down at Turfway.   The Rushaway will lead things off in an increasingly rare national  broadcast on ESPN, while the feature race of the day, the Grade 2 Lane’s End, is scheduled to go off at 5:43 PM (ET)

Now, I’m all in favor of national broadcasts, especially in light of the Take Back Saturday idea I keep droning on about.  That being said, wouldn’t it have made more sense to feature some of the races we’ve seen over the last few weekends instead?   Don’t get me wrong…we’ve got some fine colts to watch in the Lane’s End, but wouldn’t showcasing Friesan Fire or Pioneer of the Nile have been more beneficial?   What about The Pamplemousse, Old Fashioned, or I Want Revenge?  While we’re at it, let’s not forget the fillies Stardom Bound and Rachel Alexandra.   Fine equine ambassadors all.  Tell a continuous story….give it context and relevance… well, you’ve heard it all before  so I’ll spare you the sermon.

We’ll start by taking a look at the Rushaway.

TP Race 9 – $100,000 Rushaway (1 1/16 Miles)

1. Ninth Client (I. Ocampo/D. Wayne Lukas) 10/1
2. Ziegfeld (G. Gomez/D. Romans) 3/1
3. Fitzaslew (K. Desormeaux/K. McPeek) 5/2*
4. Cliffy’s Future (J. Castanon/D. Miller) 9/2
5. No Inflation (C. Velasquez/T. Proctor) 3/1
6. Summer’s Empire (E. Prado/A. Mitchell) 6/1
7. Sunday’s Baby Grand (E. Zuniga/J. Christenson) 30/1
8. Toccet Rocket (T. Pompell/B. La Mew) 20/1

Past performances available here

I could make a case for 5 of the 8 horses running here, including Fitzaslew, Ziegfeld, Summer’s Empire, No Inflation, and Cliffy’s Future.  With the reduced field size of 8 runners, the risk to reward ratio figures to be flattened on most, if not all of those runners.

Obviously Fitzaslew (Seattle Fitz) looks plenty dangerous and is a decent  favorite on the morning line.  That being said, there are some glaring questions that in my mind surpass the respectable speed figures.  Firstly, he’s making the dreaded dirt to synthetic switch.   This is another topic I harp on quite frequently.  Suffice to say I’m much more comfortable with synthetics to dirt than the other way around.  Add to the equation that we can’t be certain Fitzaslew really wants to go long, and there’s reason to look a bit deeper for your win wagers.  Get off the chalk in this one.  Make him beat you if he can.

Two horses that look very interesting as alternatives are Summer’s Empire and No Inflation.  With Summer’s Empire this might seem  a bit hypocritical from my thoughts on dirt to synthetics, but I’m going to guess that this Empire Maker colt will run well tomorrow.  I suspect handicappers may be inclined to shy away from him due to three seemingly sub-par performances over the synthetics to start his career.  I’m willing to forgive those efforts. I chalk them up to being a rookie, running deceptively competitive in his second start, and then having all kinds of trouble (off slowly, bleeding) in his third start.  I’m also willing to forgive his dismal 12th place (beaten 26 lengths) effort last out in the Risen Star.  He was hung wide that day and simply outrun by a very strong field (Friesan Fire, Flying Pegasus, Uno Mas, etc.).  He makes a lot of sense at decent odds. 

No Inflation might get overlooked here as well. The son of Repriced has won on both synthetics and turf, which makes him a very dangerous commodity in this race.  All one has to do is forgive his lone dirt effort and this horse’s running lines suddenly look very strong against this field.  He’s also training well and has shown he can handle going a route distance.   All this guy has to do is make a solid post parade impression and he might well be the play.

Ziegfeld looks like an intriguing runner here as well.  He’s not going to face the likes of Dunkirk (or at least who we think Dunkirk is at this point in time) in this field.   Even looking at that race it appears he was in contention before encountering some trouble.  He’s yet another to keep an eye on in the post parade.  The jockey switch to Garrett Gomez will undoubtedly attract many bettors.  Also note that last bullet workout on 3/14.   The son of Elusive Quality has every right to move forward this weekend. Then again, there’s that nagging dirt to synthetics question to deal with.

Then there’s Cliffy’s Future.   He certainly looks like he could be difficult in this field.  He might only have one win, but he’s been in the thick of things on several occasions and should be again this weekend. 

It’ll come down to the post parade for final selections, but I’m leaning towards Summer’s Empire  or No Inflation here for the win.   I’d add in the other win candidates for the bottoms of the exacta and trifecta. 

TP R10 – The Grade 2 Lane’s End (1 1/8 Miles)

1.  Hold Me Back (K. Desormeaux/W. Mott) 6/1
2. Bittel Road (G. Gomez/ T. Pletcher) 5/2*
3. A. P. Cardinal (C. Velasquez/ K. McLaughlin) 10/1
4. West Side Bernie (E. Prado/ K. Breen) 3/1
5. Jack Spratt (J. Leparoux/M. Maker) 8/1
6. Parade Clown (E. Coa/K. Ball) 10/1
7. Bruce N Autumn (V. Lebron/ D. Romans) 20/1
8. Orthodox (J. Castanon/ J. Glenney) 10/1
9. Loch Dubh (C. Borel/ J. Talley) 20/1
10.  Flying Private (I. Ocampo/ D. W. Lukas) 12/1
11.  Dynamite Bob (M. Guzman/ J. Lopez) 30/1
12.  Proceed Bee (R. Prescott/T. Gestes) 12/1

Past performances available here

Right away I’m a bit surprised.  I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that the public will make West Side Bernie the post time favorite.  The son of Bernstein has yet to run a bad race, and is seemingly on the improve.  I actually based my initial handicapping on the assumption that he’d be a strong favorite here.   A win on Saturday and he’s tossed his name into the Derby contender ring.  True, he’s going from the dirt back to synthetics, but with West Side Bernie you can be comforted  in knowing that he’s triumphed on the artificial footing here at Turfway before.  There is one other thing I’ve got to say though.  I’m not a fan of the Delta Jackpot.  In fact,  I consider it to be the most overrated race in all of thoroughbred racing, with a purse that far exceeds the true quality of the race.  I suspect the lure of big bucks will eventually change that and turn the race into a key one, but for now I subconsciously downgrade even those runners who win that race, and ‘Bernie was a clear second (beaten 1 length).

The horse I was hoping (and still hope) to catch at decent odds?  Bittel Road.  I had thought that his recent running lines, including a pair of 4th place finishes, a place, and a dismal 8th in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf last October would have downgraded his odds, but evidently the power of a proven turf/synthetic runner is too hard to ignore.  He’ll be facing much less than the trio of Pioneer of the Nile, I Want Revenge, and Papa Clem that he ran into last out in the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita.  Garrett Gomez has travelled to ride him, and one gets the feeling that Todd Pletcher cannot be ignored with a chance to bring a runner like this along just in time for the Triple Crown.   Is he that quality of horse?  I sincerely doubt it, but he’s good enough to defeat this field.

Parade Clown is another runner with proven form over the synthetics. His last four races stack up very nicely with some of the other contendors in here.  His “hit or miss” recent style would seem to suggest he’s due for a solid outing.  Of the longer shots in the field he’s probably got the best chance. 

I’ll probably play the odds with West Side Bernie and Bittel Road.  Whoever offers the most value will likely be the play as I could see either horse winning.   For now I’ll go with Bittle Road, with West Side Bernie, Parade Clown, and A. P. Cardinal in place.  On the bottom of the trifecta I’ll add in Hold Me Back and Proceed Bee.

2/3,4,6/1,3,4,6,12

Best of luck to all! 

I’ll be off to a birthday party for our eldest son earlier in the day, and must hope I’m home in time to see the post parade.  Next weekend things really heat up with the Florida Derby(G1), the Swale (G2), and the UAE Derby (G2), so be wise and pace yourself.  Remember: it’s a route not a sprint!  Yeah…or something like that.