THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

Another weekend, another step forward down the ole Derby trail.  On Saturday nine horses will compete for lucrative graded stakes earnings and a potential starting spot in the 2009 Kentucky Derby in the 58th running of the Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park.  In recent years the Florida Derby has become arguably the key prep race in the road to the roses, having produced future Derby winners in Big Brown (2008) , Barbaro (2006), and Monarchos (2001).   On paper this has the feeling of a two horse race, but there are a few runners who could make things interesting for the favorites.  The field sets up like this:

Past Performances available here

1. Toby the Coal Man (J. Leparoux/ N. Zito) 10/1
2. Quality Road (J. Velazquez/ J. Jerkens) 2/1
3. Casey’s On Call (E. Baird/ A. Fehr) 15/1
4. Dunkirk (G. Gomez/ T. Pletcher) 9/5*
5. Sincero (E. Trujillo/ M. Azpurus) 20/1
6. Theregoesjojo (K. McPeek/ K. Desormeaux) 5/1
7. Danger to Society (M. Madrid/ R. Dutrow) 6/1
8. Europe (C. Decarlo/ T. Pletcher) 20/1
9. Stately Character (R. Douglas/ G. Procino) 20/1

There’s simply no getting around it.  The question everyone will be wanting to see answered is whether Dunkirk is worthy of the hype we’ve bestowed upon him in recent weeks.   To prove that he’ll have to find a way to get past a very talented Quality Road for trainer James Jerkens.  Quality Road has the obvious raw speed figure advantage, but Dunkirk is proven at the longer distance of the Florida Derby ( 1 1/8 miles), having defeated conditional allowance winners (including #5 Sincero) last out in what could only be described as a disastrous early trip.  It’s worth taking a look again at that race replay to try and form a final opinion of the son of Unbridled’s Song who sold for $3.7 million in September of 2007.

Dunkirk overcomes an extremely wide trip to crush Allowance runners at Gulfstream Park on 2/19/09

I’m not sure what else can be said to describe that effort short of “amazing.”   Had he not been carried so far wide, no doubt his final time and speed figures would have been boosted further.  It’s not hard to figure out why so many fans, including myself, have jumped aboard this guy’s bandwagon.   I mentioned in the last post though that he’s still got a ways to go.   This appears to be a deep crop of three-year-olds he’s in competition with (from an overall standpoint, if not necessarily in this particular field), so he”ll have to continue to improve.   As an unraced 2-year-old with such a light foundation so far coming into the Florida Derby, he’s still a bit of an unknown wild card.   In the end you’ve got to love how he finished that last race.  You get the feeling he wants more and will be ready for the step up in class.

Quality Road should not be taken lightly though.  Dismissed by yours truly in the Fountain of Youth (although I did  mention he would have a bright future in front of him), he romped over what was considered at the time to be an extremely deep group of horses, including Capt. Candyman Can, Beethoven, This One’s for Phil, Notonthesamepage, and Theregoesjojo (who he faces again today).  The son of Elusive Quality has shown he can put up big speed figures at the shorter distances and will now have to prove that he can run just as well going an extra furlong.   Judging from the way he drew off from the Fountain of Youth field,  it doesn’t look like the distance will be a huge concern.  Much like Dunkirk, it’s wise to take at least one last look at Quality Road’s performance in the Fountain of Youth.

Quality Road romps in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park on 2/28/09

Watching that  performance, it appears Quality Road got an almost perfect trip stalking This One’s for Phil.  I say “almost”  because there was some trouble at the start.  His running line for the race denotes “jostled start.”  In fact, it was the second such performance in a row where he’s run well after encountering some trouble at the start.   Theregoesjojo appeared to be running well for place, and it’s important to note that Quality Road showed his class by keeping a healthy lead on him through the home stretch.  This definitely looks like a serious horse.  One could easily this race boiling down to a similar denouement, where Quality Road has to hold off the charge of Dunkirk late in the stretch.

As for the rest of the field, Theregoesjojo is an improving runner for trainer Ken McPeek that will likely take some heavy play in the exacta pools.  Like Quality Road, he’ll have to prove he can run to those big speed figures stretching out an extra furlong.  In yet another similarity with Quality Road, he also encountered some trouble at the break in the Fountain of Youth by “stepping slow.”  The way he was moving late I think this one gets the added distance with no problems. 

Danger to Society is the x-factor (beyond Dunkirk) who could make his presence felt.  You can never count Rick Dutrow out of a horse race (as much as it pains me to say it), and he could get lucky with this son of Harlan’s Holiday who appeared to be progressing nicely before hitting a bump in the road in the Holy Bull in late January.  They’ve had him on the shelf for a long time since transferring  to Dutrow after the Holy Bull, and his workout tab for March suggests the light may have turned back on.  He could still be any kind of horse, and I’ll be expecting an improved performance in his first effort for his new barn.

If you’re looking for some longshots to round out your exotic wagers, consider the inside runner, Toby the Coal Man for trainer Nick Zito.  Yes, it took him 6 attempts to finally break his maiden last out, but his last two efforts have been tremendous improvements.  He had to fight to bust out of the maiden ranks last out as he was set down for an all out drive in the stretch to reach the promised land of the winner’s circle.  This is an ambitious placement on paper, but he has attracted jockey Julien Leparoux.  I’m guessing the worm has turned with this one.  Look for another step forward and a real shot of hitting the board.

Sincero is another who keeps coming up in my handicapping as a play underneath.  I doubt he can finish higher than 3rd, but he has gone up against some classy colts compared to some of the other long shots on the board.  Note that he has matched up against Big Drama, Free Country, Take the Points, and Dunkirk.  He’s another runner with a penchant for trouble in his running lines.  If he ever puts it all together he’s eligible to move forward. 

Ultimately, if you’re playing the superfecta, I think you’ve got to cover the field for the bottom of the ticket.  Even the longest shot on the board, Europe, looks a little worrisome to leave off completely.  True, he showed absolutely nothing in his debut, but he’s as well bred as his stablemate Dunkirk and his morning workouts suggest he’s more talented than we saw in that effort.  It’s probably asking a bit much for him to step up to the Grade 1 level, but it’s conceivable he could pick up a small share of the earnings. 

I’ll go with Dunkirk for the win, but you won’t hear and argument from me for those who choose to stand against him and take a possibly more prudent “wait and see” approach.  I’m banking on the fact that the distance will be more to his liking than it will be for Quality Road.  That beings said,  I expect Quality Road will make him earn it if he’s to pass him in the stretch.  I’ll use Quality Road, Danger to Society, and Theregoesjojo for place.   Add in Toby the Coal Man and Sincero for show, and then cover the field for the bottom and hope for a bomber.

Selections:

• $20 Win #4 Dunkirk
• $.10 Superfecta:  4/2,6,7/1,2,5,6,7/ ALL  ($8.40)