A horse, a horse, my kingdom for a horse!
Now that Quality Road has dispatched the heavily hyped Dunkirk, just where does the son of Elusive Quality belong in the rankings for the 2009 Kentucky Derby? All the way at the top, if you ask me. His gutsy performance to hold off the late charging Dunkirk in the stretch at Gulfstream Park has convinced me that this lightly raced colt will be a force to be reckoned with come the first Saturday in May.
Quality Road finds another gear to hold off Dunkirk in the Florida Derby
Ranking the Derby contenders gets incredibly complex, if you allow it to be so, due to the different paths being taken by the various runners. Without an opportunity to size them up in face-to-face competition, one is left using the non-scientific approach of interjecting much speculation into their analysis. Even taking things as straightforward as final time comparisons cannot be considered truly “apples to apples” due to the differences in surface at each of the race tracks in question.
So what are we to make of Quality Road? How does he match up with the other big guns? At some point you have to draw the line between hype and actual production. It’s a blurred line and one that is constantly changing as the situation unfolds. For example, I believe that right now you have to rank Friesan Fire and Quality Road above the other contenders. They’ve finished their preps, and they’ve both done so in impressive style. Just around the corner, however, we’ll get our best read on the contenders coming from California (in the Santa Anita Derby), and New York (In the Wood Memorial), so things are not set in stone at the top of the list.
Let’s start by looking at the top 5:
- #1 Quality Road
- #2 Friesan Fire
- #3 The Pamplemousse
- #4 Pioneer of the Nile
- #5 I Want Revenge
I don’t think there’s much variety out there in terms of who belongs in the top 5. The argument seems to be where these top 5 should be ranked in relation to one another. Disregard the #1 and #2 rankings for a moment on Friesan Fire and Quality Road. Truth be told I consider them to be dual #1 contenders. Both colts used similar stalk and pounce approaches to cash in on their recent victories. Friesan Fire had to run down the speedy Papa Clem early on, and then hold off late charges from Terrain and Giant Oak. Many of the bigger named horses who gave the Louisiana Derby such a deep feel prior to the race (Flying Pegasus, Patena, etc.) simply did not fire for whatever reason, leaving Friesan Fire with a relatively easy victory once he reeled in Papa Clem. Quality Road didn’t face a field quite as deep on paper, but the big names in the Florida Derby did show up to run, as he had to hold off the late charging Dunkirk in the stretch (as well as Theregoesjojo who ran well enough for show) after dispensing with longshot pacesetter Casey’s on Call. The end result? I think you’ve got to have these guys one, two. Where you rank them amongst each other is open for debate, but for now I”ll give the slight edge to Quality Road, and continue to be disappointed that I could not select the horse in the Road to the Roses challenge.
Moving down the list, the next great debate is what to do with the California runners and I Want Revenge. Obviously if I Want Revenge had remained in California, this would be easier to do from a direct comparison standpoint. However, that would have left us completely unable to determine how these colts might run once they tried the dirt for the first time. With the defections of Papa Clem and I Want Revenge and the subsequent success they’ve enjoyed, their would seem to be much promise for the colts currently leading the California Division; The Pamplemousse and Pioneer of the Nile. Until Pioneer of the Nile shows he can rundown The Grapefruit (which he very well might do in the upcoming Santa Anita Derby), I”ll continue to rank The Pamplemousse ahead of him. With The Pamplemousse firmly entrenched at 3rd, that makes things simple for me as I can look at the next two and say “well, Pioneer of the Nile defeated I Want Revenge head to head, so he stays on top for now.” Of course, it’s never quite that easy, and the 113 Beyer figure that I Want Revenge earned on dirt in the Gotham suggests he’s just as capable as Quality Road. Here’s one last factor in stacking them as I have above. Pioneer of the Nile and The Pamplemousse will square off face to face next weekend at Santa Anita, so we’ll get a much clearer read on how they match up. I Want Revenge will face a challenge from some of the lower ranked contenders, and could be vulnerable if a runner like Imperial Council rises to the occasion.
- #6 Old Fashioned
- #7 Imperial Council
- #8 Dunkirk
- #9 Chocolate Candy
- #10 Win Willy
Things get a bit fuzzier once you’re outside of the top 5. The first challenge is what to do with the falling stock of both Dunkirk and Old Fashioned. Dunkirk in particular might not have enough earnings to even qualify for the Kentucky Derby, which basically makes his position on a Derby rankings list rather moot. Let’s say he does find a way to draw into the field though. Then what would we make of him? Is he not good enough to merit consideration among the bigger guns? We must remember that the Florida Derby was this horse’s third race of his career. There’s still a tremendous amount of room for improvement, and judging from the way this guy is bred and the fact that he’s only allowed one horse to finish in front of him so far (and did not go down without a fight), I think you’ve got to keep him around. Ditto for Old Fashioned. Larry Jones is simply too good a horseman for this guy to fall too far. I’m convinced Friesan Fire is his best shot, but Old Fashioned has enough class in him to get past many in this year’s crop.
Then you’ve got some room for “buzz” horses and longshots. Imperial Council fits into that former category and now becomes the hype horse in the rankings. He’ll get a shot to turn the tables on I Want Revenge in the Wood, and if he were to do so he’d have to be considered a top 5 contender in the Derby at least. I’m still holding out hope that this guy could be the best of the Empire Maker colts this year (with all due respect to Pioneer of the Nile).
Chocolate Candy is now the “Rodney Dangerfield” of this list. Each week it’s someone different who gets no respect. In CC’s case, I believe it’s because folks simply haven’t had many good looks at him.. All that will change next weekend with the Santa Anita Derby. He needs to finish in the top 3 to warrant this ranking, but stop for a moment and consider what a shakeup it would be if he found a way to prevail? I’m not saying that will happen, but what would the fallout be if it did? The only thing I can find that he hasn’t done is to win a race recently.
Lastly, there’s my longshot Win Willy, who I’m going to hold onto in this rankings until someone else forces me to remove him. I’ll clue you in on another thought going through my mind right now that relates to this guy. The Pamplemousse is a speedy type. Friesan Fire, Quality Road, and even Old Fashioned like to be just off the pace anywhere from 2nd to 4th in the early running. We just might have enough early zip up front that things could open up for a closer like this. It might take some additional lights out speed signed up on the front end, but I’m just saying that a horse that isn’t on most people’s lists despite running a very visually impressive race to defeat the then top ranked Old Fashioned still warrants some consideration.
So there you have it, for the moment at least. In the spirit of the increasingly annoying Capital One credit card commercials: “Who’s on your list? “
One additional comment I’d like to make. It seems like each week the winds of change blow from one direction to another with respect to the fillies Stardom Bound and Rachel Alexandra.
Hopefully I’ve been clear enough in recent posts that I don’t need to repeat the fact that I consider both to be major players, and that Rachel Alexandra in particular could be the best 3-year-old in the entire country.
It’s just that as of right now they both “seem” to be pointed to the Oaks…and if I’ve read correctly, have been trailing in the Oaks future wager pools behind Justwhistledixie.
I was surprised Dunkirk was so far back in the race at the start. Most tracks favor the front runners. It seems this year we have no one horse that everyone will say will win the Derby for sure. I can’t wait to see Imperial Council again in the Wood.
I was watching USA vs El Salvador in the soccer world cup qualifiers last night. Some game! Tonight starts the women’s professional soccer league. Im all excited about that.
It’s still too early to pick the top horse although Quality Road did look very impressive. As far as holding off Dunkirk, he had the speed of the track, a perfect trip and Gomez blew it by not adjusting to the fast track conditions. Same thing happened to Gomez at Sunland today, where the track conditions (very fast) were similar to Gulfstream this weekend. That being said, Dunkirk was a very tired horse after the race so he probably will not make it to the KD. Look for him in the Preakness.
If I want Revenge runs another big one, than he has the right to claim the top spot. Any of the top five have a solid chance to win in the Derby. Pioneer of the Nile needs to run the Santa Anita Derby with a 100+ Beyer or he will be out of the top five. It is difficult to win the derby without achieving a 100+ Beyer credential, but he is a solid horse that may peak in early November for the Breeders cup classic. He seems to relish “Pro-Ride”
Need to keep an eye on Win Willy, he is out of a Carson City mare like the great Barbaro was and he seems so far to have plenty of stamina. Old Fashion needs to show more speed. He could still make the top five with a good Arkansas Derby win.
In the final analysis, the draw will be important. Even though Big Brown won last year from the 20th pole, post position will be critical, because this year the KD is so much deeper than last year.
Haven’t decided whether to go to the track or watch the Santa Anita Derby at Vessels. Either way, it should be a good card next Saturday.
Quality Road looked really good winning at Gulfstream and I think your right will be a force in the Derby. I liked Dunkirk and think this horse has a real solid chance to improve dramatically off the Florida Derby effort IF he has enough money earned.
I think Quality road looked really good. Dunkirk also has alot of potential and can improve rapidly IF he has enough money won to even get into the Derby.
I am really looking forward to the Wood to see how I Want Revenge goes and also how Giant Oak runs if he goes in the Bluegrass, tough to get a read out of the Louisiana Derby and he has had some excuses.
Was too busy laughing/guffawing at the ‘FOOLS’ in the FLORIDA DERBY to comment until now. 1st was that schmuck HAMMERIN HANK GOLDBERG wasting he says a C-note to win on DUNKIRK and various $50Exactas/Triples(which i had) and to boot he gave my K-Derby Pick ‘The PAMPLEMOUSSE’ the virtual ‘kiss of death’ by saying his speed would do the East Coasters in!? WHAT – YOU FRIPPIN FRAUD AS A HANDICAPPER/ALBATROSS!!! Then there was TODD’the-putz-punk-trainer’PLETCHER blaming blaming the race surface for DUNKIRK’s convincing loss!!!{First off the margin of victory would have been larger had not VELASQUEZ on QUALITY ROAD not looked to the inside and not seen DUNKIRK getting close on the outside a the top of the lane!!! DUNKIRK will be an OK 3 year-old later in the year and is still eligible for quite a few conditionedNW races at 1+1/16 and 1+1/8 TODD’the-putz’!!! DUNKIRK is not a CLASSIC HORSE despite his expensive ancestry. New ‘track record’ but all times were fast + aided by a 25 mph tailwind. Let the West Coasters now take the stage – and see what they bring to the CHURCHILL CHA-CHA the first Saturday in May.
I can’t WAIT for Saturday. The weather’s supposed to be ideal too. Gogo had a bad weekend, that’s for sure, starting with Friday when he fought with his ride Zensational from the time they came out and probably messed up his hands in the process. Odds on Zensational were 1/5! However, this worries me a little because he seems like he’s closing in on some most stakes won honors and it seems like whenever he loses too many in a row he comes back blazing. Solis remains a steady rider who’s been winning a lot lately. Here’s to the purple horse. Here’s to The Pamplemousse.
Quality Road was very impressive!! I noticed that his chest is built very deep, with could be giving him great lung capacity. I love the way he broke away from Dunkirk when asked, just like his burst of speed in the Fountain Of Youth. He looks to be totally push-button, whenever the rider asks, he gives. I think he’s the horse to beat in the Derby.
@Mike – you are the consummate sports fan!
@BMC – Love that someone else likes Win Willy! Also agree that if IWR runs a huge one that he becomes a serious win candidate. Well, even more so than he already is. Question is, can Imperial Council pull the upset?
@Dave – agree with everything you say, but for some reason I’ve just never been a Giant Oak fan this year. I’ve been quietly hoping he doesn’t make me regret that all year so far.
@Zyskander – I’m peeing myself I”m laughing so hard. Pletcher did seem pretty aggravated. Didn’t really sound like a vote of confidence there, but he had a point about how the track was playing. Don’t think it was the difference in the end as I think Quality Road was much the best. I was laughing at the experts as well, but not quite so hard as I was already down about $50 from Dubai earlier in the day and not feeling anything close to an authority on my own.
@Sally – gotta keep us posted on what you see out there! I’m fond of several of the runners listed so far (Grapefruit, Pioneer, CC, and Mr. H.S.), and I can’t wait to see them battle it out either. Whole thing should come down to how easy The Pamplemousse gets the lead. Let him coast and it’s probably over. if someone chews him up a bit, than Pioneer can get him. Should be interesting!
Brian – you hit on something I haven’t really mentioned yet, but has been on my mind. I thought the same thing about Quality Road’s build. And while Dunkirk is a fantastic looking horse, I thought he lacked something in terms of muscle development. I’m no expert on this, so that’s just my uneducated opinion.
Still, that’s probably the result of him having only raced twice before the Florida Derby. Of the two B-options for Dunkirk, I prefer the Preakness, for two reasons. One, I’ll be there (sheer selfishness!). Two, it’s a shorter distance than the Belmont, and I’m not sure right now how far Dunkirk really wants to go? Seemed a bit tired. Here’s hoping he comes back stronger next out as I’d love to see this guy really turn into something.
okay, kev- inside conversation at sa. listening in on the fellow in charge of the starting gate at SA for many years. he loves the P. he thinks the P is the real thing.
he says he’s told solis/julio not to pet the p in the gate, not to use a pony to bring him to the gate (they don’t), that this is a horse that doesn’t need any of that. very cool guy, very exciting talk.
[...] over the rest of the field, I’ve been aggressively ranking Chocolate Candy fairly high on my recent Derby rankings, and I’m hoping beyond hope that he validates that somehow this weekend. A win seems highly [...]
Pletcher had every right to be dissapointed with the super-fast track at Gulfstream. Dunkirk was coming out of slow races so he was kind of lazy at the start. He made an impressive rally into a moderate pace but Quality Road didn’t fatigue on the lightning fast track. Dunkirk will be ready to run a fast race next time and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he turns the tables on Quality Road. Everybody should be dissapointed if his Florida Derby loss means that one of the most talented 3yo’s misses the big show in Kentucky.
You’ve always got a way of putting things in proper perspective, Jerry – and you’re spot-on here as usual. It’s a tragedy indeed if we end up with Mafaaz or some of the other outsiders and not Dunkirk….although I’m still selfishly hoping to see him in the Preakness, where the smaller field size might give him a better shot coming off-the-pace.
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