You’ve got to love this time of year. Here in the Mid Atlantic the weather has turned from an icy snow storm at the dawn of the week to a much needed spring preview with gorgeous 60° temperatures for the weekend. Once again it’s time to go through the manly ritual of cleaning out the grill and preparing for prime barbecue season. Ribs, chicken, steak, burgers. “Meat and fire, baby!” And nothing goes with a spring barbecue like a meaningful throughoughbred horse race, especially one that could tell us quite a bit about several hopefuls for the 2009 Kentucky Derby. It’s Take Back Saturday time for sure. Check that….it’s hyper Take Back Saturday!
The field for the 57th running of the $250,000 Gotham (Grade 3) @ Aqueduct (1 1/16 Miles):
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- Naos (M. Luzzi/ T. Pletcher) 20/1
- Russell Road (T. Dunkelberger/J. Casey) 20/1
- Masala (E. Coa/T. PLetcher) 5/1
- Axel Foley (R. Migliore/K. McLaughlin) 15/1
- Mr. Fantasy (A. Garcia/K. McLaughlin) 7/2
- Haynesfield (C. Lopez/S. Asmussen) 5/1
- Imperial Council (R. Maragh/C. McGaughey) 5/2*
- I Want Revenge (J. Talamo/J. Mullins) 3/1
- Giant Ryan (J. Sanchez/B. Parboo) 50/1
Right away there is a major dilemma for me. I fully expected Haynesfield to be the chalk favorite here, but apparently the hype surrounding Shug McGaughey’s colt Imperial Council has reached deeper than I thought. To be fully honest, I was planning on trying to beat Haynesfield with him. Now I may have to look elsewhere if the odds hold. Before we get into that though, let’s run through the horses a bit more thoroughly.
Naos breaks from the inside for trainer Todd Pletcher, who suddenly has a bevy of Derby contenders after appearing to start the year on a down note. ‘Patient, grasshopper!” He looks a bit outclassed here though to me. That being said, take a look at the developmental cycle of the other Lion Heart colt in this race, Masala, and suddenly it’s not difficult to imagine a move forward on the speed figure scales on Saturday. Trouble is, he’ll have to run by some pretty good horses in the stretch, which might be asking a bit much. He seems to enjoy the added ground if his last effort at Philly Park is any indication. Also have to like that he’s at least had some stakes experience. I could see this horse having brighter days ahead of him. I’m just not sold yet that Saturday will be one of them. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if he hit the board though.
Russell Road warrants some mention in this field. While he seems a class below the rest, there’s not much you can say against a horse who has won 6 consecutive races. It’s just that those were sprinting further south in West Virginia and Maryland and this is a tough field to face stretching out over a mile for the first time in his career. He has seemed to run his best races when going the tricky 7 furlong distance. Still, it looks like he’d need to run the race of his life to win this. He’s another you’ve got to respect with a chance to hit the board.
Masala. This guy sure looks live on paper. Finished second to Take the Points last out and we saw what that one did shipping west on short notice and running second to the Pamplemousse in the Sham. Todd Pletcher would appear to have another dangerous horse here. . His speed figures are exciting and if this guy makes a nice appearance it might be worth considering him here. It seems both of Pletcher’s ‘Lion Hearts’ are looking to take steps forward. The only trouble is….if we’re going to base his chances on the Take the Points angle, then it must be said that The Pamplemousse sort of beat that one for fun in the Sham. I could go either way with this one. He’s got a chance here.
Axel Foley. The Officer colt has been chasing some of the better left coast horses lately in Chocolate Candy and Pioneer of the Nile. He looks up against it here to me. Shug knows how to get ‘em turned around though so an improved effort is certainly possible.
Mr. Fantasy is the first of the “big guns” here in post position order. A win here will rocket the Kiaran McLaughlin trained colt onto many Derby lists. He’s won big in each of his two starts and has devoured competition at the state-bred maiden and allowance levels. He’s moving up in class, but could be the controlling speed. If he’s the colt he’s looked like against lower levels of competition, than this one could be over before it starts. The whole question will be what happens with him up front early on. My guess is this guy can handle the class test and will run well here.
Haynesfield is the talented Speightstown colt who seemingly gets no respect a la Rodney Dangerfield. He’s at 5/1? All he’s done is win 4 straight races including the Damon Runyon, the Count Fleet, and the Whirlaway. What’s a guy gotta do? The two knocks that have followed this guy wherever he has gone are that he should run into some distance limitations being a Speightstown colt and that he hasn’t really beaten anybody of name or record. This is obviously his biggest test, so we stand to learn quite a bit about him. I suspect he’ll take a bit of money at the windows as well, but with the jockey switch from Ramon Dominguez to Lopez, I think there’s reason to take a stand against him this weekend.
Imperial Council. Are you kidding me? Watch how much buzz will surround this horse if he wins the Gotham. He’s essentially improved in each of his 3 lifetime races and should absolutely love stretching out the added distance of the Gotham. I like his foundation, and you’ve get a feeling that he could be the best of the Empire Maker contenders for the Derby. He’s going to have to earn it though, and that will mean running down both Haynesfield and Mr. Fantasy. I’ll be honest and repeat that he is my top selection here overall, but if the odds aren’t right there are reasons to consider taking a stand against him. His workouts would suggest he’s ready to run a big one and this colt could well be in top form right now. Eye him up in the post parade and decide how you feel about the odds. And yes, Mike from NY, you know I can’t cover an Empire Maker without thinking of you, buddy.
I Want Revenge is the x-factor horse here. He ships in on short notice from California with hotshot jockey Joe Talamo aboard. This is almost the exact reverse of what we saw with Take the Points heading west in the Sham last week, and the result might turn out to be the same. I absolutely loved how this horse chased Pioneer of the Nile the last two races. Visually they were impressive performance despite the lower speed figures. Jeff Mullins wouldn’t ship him all the way out here if he didn’t think he had a big chance. I’m just not sure I like him at 3/1. I actually expected the odds on he and Haynesfield to be reversed and this will be interesting to see where horseplayers wind up. As I often say, I definitely like the synthetic to dirt angle more than the other way around, and I prefer the west to east angle more so than vice versa. I think he hits the board and must be given a chance here. Here’s the intriguing thing with him. If he does run big, and if he were to win here, how might folks feel differently about the odds of The Pamplemousse, Pioneer of the Nile, and perhaps Stardom Bound come the first Saturday in May?
Giant Ryan….are you kidding me? Pass.
I’m going to go down to the wire here on my choices, and odds will likely influence the final wagers. I think Mr. Fantasy and Imperial Council are the top two in this field, but Haynesfield, I Want Revenge, and Masala could all pull it off as well. It really just comes down to who you like the most. Mr. Fantasy could well wind up being the play, but for now I’ll stick to my guns and select Imperial Council for the win.
From a superfecta standpoint I think you can use Mr. Fantasy, Haynesfield, I Want Revenge, Masala, Russell Road, and Naos as underneath possibilities. Without the benefit of the post parade I’d play Masala, Haynesfield, and Mr. Fantasy in place. I’d toss in I Want Revenge, Rusell Road, and Naos for the bottom spots of the ticket.
$.10 Superfecta: 7/3,5,6/1,2,3,5,6,8/1,2,3,5,6,8 ($6.00)
Best of luck to all. If you’re crusing around the web this weekend, do stop over on our TBA homepage and pay a visit. We always appreciate the traffic.
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