THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

Four weeks ago, I Want Revenge served notice on the 2009 Kentucky Derby trail by turning in an impressive 113 Beyer figure on his way to an 8 1/2 length victory over Imperial Council, Mr. Fantasy, and others in the Grade 3 Gotham at Aqueduct.  This Saturday, Imperial Council will make his bid for revenge as the two square off in the 85th running of the Grade 1 Wood Memorial.  The Wood is part of  an all-stakes Pick 4 sequence that begins with the Bayshore (G3), moves on to the Excelsior (G3) and finishes with the Carter Handicap (G1). 

The field sets up like this:

• #2 I Want Revenge (J. Talamo/J. Mullins) 4/5*
• #3 Lord Justice (C.C. Lopez/ T. Pletcher) 15/1
• #4Cellar Dweller (A. Napravnik/ J. Campo) 30/1
• #1 Atomic Rain (J. Bravo/K. Breen) 6/1
• #1A West Side Bernie (S. Elliot/ K. Breen) 6/1
• #5 Imperial Council (E. Prado/C. McGaughey) 2/1
• #6 Just a Coincidence (J. Velazquez/ N. Zito) 12/1
• #7 Lime Rickey (J. Castellano/ F. Alexander) 20/1

Past Performances available here from the Road to the Roses challenge

Looking back at I Want Revenge in his dominating performance in the Gotham, the son of Stephen Got Even had everything go his way.  He was able to comfortably stalk a soft pace and when he made his move to surge past Mr. Fantasy, the race was over.  Imperical Council came running hard from the back of the pack to close to 2nd, but never was able to threaten I Want Revenge. 

If he gets the same trip in the Wood, the outcome will likely be exactly the same.  From a pace setup, you could argue that the Wood figures to be run a bit quicker than the Gotham was.   If Lord Justice runs here (he’s also entered in the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne on Saturday), than he’s your likely pace setter.  However, Atomic Rain may show some speed as well, as might Nick Zito’s Just a Coincidence.  Might that open things up for Imperial Council coming off the pace? 

Imperial Council likely left himself way too much to do in the Gotham, and closing into I Want Revenge’s dream trip was seemingly an impossibility.  Today he’ll get an extra half furlong of ground, plus a bit wider turns as they move from the inner track to the main track.  Couple that with perhaps a better pace scenario and I think an upset here starts to become a possibility.  I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again;  despite the attention that Pioneer of the Nile receives on the California circuit, it would not surprise me if Imperial Council turned out to be the best of the Empire Maker offspring in this crop of three-year-olds – and Saturday just might be his day.  It’s also worth noting that he’s got Edgar Prado back in the saddle, so a return to his previous style of being noticeably closer to the pace should be expected.  Even trainer Shug McGaughey is quoted as saying as much in Saturday’s DRF. 

West Side Bernie and Atomic Rain make an intriguing pair of runners, but ultimately their coupling actually deflates the betting attraction of this race.   With only seven possible numbers to punch in your ticket, don’t expect bank breaking value here.  I’d cover the top 2 runners if you’re wading into the $400,000 guaranteed Pick 4 pool and move on. 

I think the world of I Want Revenge and have been a fan of jockey Joe Talamo’s since well before he earned fame on the series “Jockeys” - but I’ll probably play against him this weekend and look for Imperial Council at slightly better odds.  I suspect the public will hammer I Want Revenge thanks to his impressive speed figures, so even that 4/5 value on the morning line might not hold.  Admittedly I’d like a bit better risk/reward value than 2/1 on Imperial Council, but I’d be happy to get 3/1 or so by post time.  I think both of these horses are Kentucky Derby worthy, and with I Want Revenge most likely having his card already punched, we’ll see if Imperial Council can join him at the big party on the First Saturday in May.

It’s not that I don’t think I Want Revenge will win – he probably will, it’s just that there’s no value in taking him, and I can come up with a few scenarios in my mind where he could be vulnerable (could is the operative term there, note that I did not say “would”).   In the end I’ll be betting on the fact that while he may be clearly better than Imperial Council, I doubt that he’s really 8 lengths better.   This one ought to be closer, and Imperial Council should at least have a chance if all goes well. 

Alas, there is no 10 cent Superfecta wagering available on the Wood, so I’ll skip the single race exotic wagering and save my bankroll for later plays.  Besides – we’re going Pick 4 or bust at Aqueduct.  It’s time to welcome in April in triumphant style!

In the other races of the Pick 4 sequence  I like Capt. Candyman Can and Not for Silver in the Bayshore (G3).  I’ll spread a little deeper in the Excelsior (G3) and cover Barrier Reef, Alaazo, and Cool Coal Man.  In the Carter Handicap (G1) I’ll cover four numbers with True Quality, Fabulous Strike, Tale of Ekati, and Kodiak Kowboy.  

Selections:

• $20 Win #5 Imperial Council
• Race 7  All stakes Pick 4:  4,6/1,2,6/2,5/1,3,4,7  ($48)