THE ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER

Might the entry of  the speedy rabbit Z-Day in Saturday’s running of the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby spell trouble for The Pamplemousse?  It seems that the connections over at Zayat Stables hope so, particularly for their impressive colt Pioneer of the Nile, who will lock horns with “The Grapefruit”  for the first time this weekend.  The field for the 72nd running of the Santa Anita Derby sets up like this:

1. Chocolate Candy (J. Rosario/ J. Hollendorfer) 6/1
2. Z Day (A. Gryder/ M. Mitchell) 15/1
3. Unbridled Roman (T. Baze/ C. Paasch) 30/1
4. Pioneer of the Nile (G. Gomez/ B. Baffert) 2/1
5. Mr. Hot Stuff (C. Nakatani/ E. Harty) 8/1
6. Feisty Suances (V. Espinoza/ D. Vienna) 15/1
7. Take the Points (C. Decarlo/ T. Pletcher) 10/1
8. Cape Truth (M.C. Baze/ D. O’Neill) 30/1
9. Gallant Son (R. Bejarano/ F. Lucarelli) 15/1
10. The Pamplemousse (A. Solis/ J. Canani) 9/5*

Past performances available here from the Road to the Roses challenge

In the name of speed and efficiency, I’ll spare you the suspense and simply say that you can count me among those who are believers in “Da Mousse” (as I now refer to him).  At first I think I was more of a Pioneer of the Nile guy, but as I listened more and more to readers like Sally C and watched the much appreciated workout videos of him that Mary Forney puts on her blog, the more I started to believe he could indeed be something special.  As Superfecta puts it, he might be the one to “break the Santa Anita curse.” 

The idea behind entering a rabbit is usually to soften up the other speed ball competition so that they don’t have as much left in the tank when the off-the-pace runners come charging for the finish line.  Wear ‘em out.  Grind ‘em down.  Make it easy to punch through when it’s time to deliver the coup de grace.  Throughout the ages, men have based aggressive military campaigns on the similar notion that “softening up the enemy” would give their forces a better chance for victory.  How have things played out when such strategies were employed?  Well, obviously horse racing is a completely different animal, but it’s worth remembering a short list of major actions where this was the strategy used before an offensive was launched.  

Three specific examples pop into my mind (and there are countless more I could have chosen from). 

• Lee’s gamble with Pickett’s Charge at Gettysburg was begun with a massive artillery bombardment prior to the famous infantry advance.  Rather than being obliterated by the barrage, the defending Union soldiers on Cemetery Ridge weathered the storm and than decimated the oncoming rebel assault columns. 
• At Iwo Jima, the U.S. Navy fired just about everything it had at the tiny island stronghold in the Pacific before the Marines came ashore.  When they did they discovered that the enemy had barely even been bruised and was very much ready for a fight. 
• The Normandy landings of Operation Overlord in June, 1944 were similarly preceded by massive naval and air bombardments that were supposed to drive the Germans from their entrenchments.  They didn’t. 

While the U.S. was ultimately successful at both Normandy and Iwo Jima, it can hardly be said that success was achieved due to the “softening up” bombardments that initiated the actions.  Those battles, Pickett’s Charge included, were won or lost based on how events unfolded during the infantry advances themselves. 

My suspicion is that a similar outcome is likely this Saturday in the Santa Anita Derby.  I’m not drinking the rabbit flavored kool-aid.  If Pioneer of the Nile is going to win this thing, he’s going to have to do it on his own accord, and in the end I think that may be asking him to do just a little too much.  To be fair, the son of Empire Maker does have a tendency to make things exciting with thrillingly close finishes, and he could very well be coming on strong in the stretch under the steady hand of jockey Garrett Gomez, but if the Pamplemousse is able to handle the rabbit like I think he will, I’m not sure if it will be enough in the end.

Pace wise, I do expect Z-Day to have the lead, at least through the opening half mile.   I sort of let the cat out of the bag by posting some of this over on Facebook the other night, but I see The Pamplemousse being able to rate behind him if that’s what it takes.  I know some think he may be a one trick pony, but I think it’s important to note that this horse does have some versatility.  This is perhaps best illustrated by his debut effort when he closed from 11th  to 4th in the stretch, finishing just behind I Want Revenge.  I’m just sayin’.  Don’t be surprised if this guy is more versatile than he’s looked so far.  I’m not saying he wants to be in mid pack, but he should be able to tuck in about a half length or so off of Z-Day if that runner wants to go :22 and :44 in the early going.

Looking over the rest of the field, I’ve been aggressively ranking Chocolate Candy fairly high on my recent Derby rankings, and I’m hoping beyond hope that he validates that somehow this weekend.  A win seems highly unlikely, but he is eligible to be moving well late.  If you’re looking over the past performances, note that his late pace figures have been drifting downwards slightly, but those were in wins against Northern California runners.  I’m thinking he’ll run closer to the efforts we saw in the Real Quiet and his maiden breaker.  If he runs like that, he’s a contender.

Take the Points is rumored to be a likely scratch, so I’ll skip right past him.

That leads us next to Mr. Hot Stuff, who has somehow generated about as much buzz as Chocolate Candy despite having nowhere near as much success -  all because of his connections with Colonel John.  Obviously it’s fairly well known that I love to play Tiznow offspring, so while it’s fair to say that this runner hasn’t really shown much to back up his playability (one maiden victory and a distant 3rd in the Sham), he’ll be on my ticket. 

Two longshots that I think have a chance of hitting the Superfecta towards the bottom of the ticket are Gallant Son and Feisty Suances.  I know that the jockey change from Solis to Bejarano on Gallant Son is due to Solis having the mount on The Pamplemousse, but I think this one is worth taking a long look at.  Most players might easily dismiss him as just a dirt runner, due to his less appealing efforts on the synthetics in recent months.  I don’t think we can do that quite so fast though.  He was only beaten 3 1/2 lengths in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, a race he was clearly outmatched in.  The Cal Derby effort is admittedly not very enticing, but I actually am okay with his 6th place finish in the San Vicente.  He was only beaten 2 1/4 lengths that day, and I’m fond of the top three finishers in that race (Evita Argentina, Leed’stheway, and Gato Go Win).  Look, I’m not saying he’s a win candidate, but if you’re playing the superfecta, here’s a guy that will offer value who has won going a route distance, is accomplished on both dirt and turf, and who has run deceptively well against some fairly tough synthetic competition.  I think he has a good chance of hitting the board. 

Feisty Suances seems to always find a way to finish in the money, and he could in fact offer some pace pressure to Z Day and The Pamplemousse.  I doubt he can hang around long with the latter, but he has been in the Superfecta in each of his 6 efforts. That counts for something in my book. 

I’ll look for the Pamplemousse to win with Pioneer of the Nile, Chocolate Candy, and Mr. Hot Stuff battling for place.  I’ll add in Gallant Son and Feisty Suances underneath.  I’ll probably cover the field on the bottom just in case the confidently placed O’Neill runner or Z Day earn a slice.

Selections: 

• $20 Win #10 The Pamplemousse
• $.10 Superfecta:  10/1,4,5/1,4,5,6,9/All  ($7.20)