While the past week didn’t produce any shocking upsets or long prices in the major Derby preps, it was arguably the most important of the entire campaign. It now appears that The Pamplemousse will be off the Kentucky Derby trail. The impact of this blow was softened somewhat by a dominating performance from I Want Revenge in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial, proving that he is a legitimate Derby threat (and possibly more). Everyone is furiously adjusting their rankings taking into account the recent changes as all of the roads to the Derby begin to converge.
We’re getting down to H-hour, folks. You can feel it in the air. I even cut my lawn this weekend for the first time this Spring. I’m a bit upset that we’ve lost The Pamplemousse, as he was one of my favorites, but I’m hopeful that a horse like Dunkirk will now find a way to squeeze into the field. He’ll make it a more interesting race if he does. With a month to go, here’s how I rank ‘em.
- #1 Quality Road - Hard not to give him the slight edge by virtue of his brilliant wins in the Florida Derby (G1) and the Fountain of Youth (G2), but it was not an easy decision. His sire, Elusive Quality, also gave us Smarty Jones a few years back, and we all know how that turned out. The biggest question he will face is whether the track at Gulfstream Park was favoring his speedy style. With the defection of The Pamplemousse the likely pace outlook has changed. I think it will take a horse who is somewhat forwardly placed to win it now, and Quality Road should be right there. A sensational colt who could be our best Triple Crown threat.
- #2 I Want Revenge- Feel you could rank the top three runners as 1, 1A, and 1B. I Want Revenge was just absolutely dominating in winning the Wood. He had no business winning that race, and he didn’t even have to win it. The fact that he did so makes it a mind blowing performance – off the Richter scale impressive. It’s exciting to see jockey Joe Talamo have his chance on a big named 3-year-old. Looks like a force to be reckoned with.
- #3 Friesan Fire – Drops a bit, though not by anything he has done. It’s just that as impressive as he looked winning the Louisiana Derby (G2), Quality Road and I Want Revenge have looked even better. Larry Jones is giving the colt a long break before the Triple Crown campaign begins, and he’ll go into the Derby on 6 weeks rest. I know some folks are questioning that, but I would not question anything Jones does with 3-year-olds as for my money he’s the best in the business with them. I would not forget about this guy come the first Saturday in May. He threw a sharp bullet work just before his performance in the Louisiana Derby (G2). Pay attention to how he works leading up to the big day.
- #4 Pioneer of the Nile - Moves to the front of the California division by virtue of his victory in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) as much as the defection of The Pamplemousse from the Derby trail. Many think he’s bred for turf/synthetics, but he’s a fighter that finds a way to win. The obvious challenge in predicting his Derby potential is that we’ve yet to see him run on true dirt and won’t until the first Saturday in May. For what it’s worth, the colt is currently on top of our 3-year-old colt standings over at the TBA.
- #5 Dunkirk – Still has to draw into the field, but if he does he has to be given a chance. The only horse to have bested him thus far is Quality Road, so if that one is a serious contender than Dunkirk must be as well. I’d prefer to see him pack on a little muscle before the Derby, but this guy still has a world of upside potential. Didn’t look like he enjoyed his hard effort in the Florida Derby (G1), but is bred to go the distance. I suspect he’ll be the “wiseguy” horse going into the Derby. With the loss of The Pamplemousse and the wins by Musket Man and I Want Revenge last weekend, he just might make it into the field. It’ll be close.
- #6 Old Fashioned – Has a chance to redeem himself in the Arkansas Derby next week. At one point this guy was the favorite for the Derby. He let one horse get passed him in the stretch of the Rebel (G2) and then came crashing to earth. Clearly he is option B now behind Friesan Fire for Larry Jones, but this colt could still make some noise before all is said and done.
- #7 Desert Party – I felt that this was the right spot for one of the two Godolphin runners from Dubai (Regal Ransom, winner of the G2 UAE Derby, being the other). You could rank whichever one you like the most here. My feeling was that Desert Party would get a chance to prove the UAE Derby effort a fluke and turn the tables on Regal Ransom. There doesn’t seem to be much separating these two. This guy’s stock will rise or fall depending on how he looks once arriving in Kentucky.
- #8 Win Willy – I’ve been on this guy’s bandwagon since his run in the Rebel (G2), and will likely remain on board for the ride as far as he takes us. I was blown away by his powerful move in the Rebel. If he defeats Old Fashioned again in the Arkansas Derby, than he’ll prove he’s a legit contender. His chances in the Derby will likely come down to the pace setup and what gate he draws as he seems to be a closer.
- #9 Chocolate Candy - Ran well in the Santa Anita Derby but could not get past Pioneer of the Nile. He’s another who it will be hard to gauge on true dirt until we see some strong workouts.
- #10 Musket Man – Not sure how this guy will stack up against the big boys as he’s been facing weaker competition, but he is a horse who knows how to find the winner’s circle. A $15,000 purchase at the September 2007 Keeneland sale, he continues to move forward with each performance. Illinois Derby win gives him victories at 4 tracks now in just 6 lifetime starts. That’s got to count for something and suggests he’ll ship well to Kentucky.
Other horses to keep an eye on include: Papa Clem, Theregoesjojo, Regal Ransom, and Mafaaz. Up next this weekend are the Arkansas Derby (G2) and the Blue Grass (G1).
Did you see Rachel Alexandra’s win in the Fantasy?! That filly needs to be in the derby, she totally outclasses the fillies this year and I think she could beat the boys.
I agree, Brian. I desperately want to see her in the Derby, but as of right now it seems the Oaks. I’m keeping my fingers crossed. She’s a serious win candidate if she does run.
If only the connections had nominated Rachel Alexandra to the Triple Crown! I think she’s out, unless it’s possible to supplement to the Kentucky Derby. (Is there? Just realized I have no idea.)
They can, but it’s pricey. $200,000 I believe.
Yup- just checked it over at Cindy Pierson-Dulay’s site:
http://www.horse-races.net/library/derby-entry.htm
Kevin,
The top 10 couldn’t be more complete. Great job, complete w/ videos.
As for the RACHEL ALEXANDRA comment…no doubt she’s a talented filly AGAINST OTHER FILLIES. I’m not sold that she’s good enough after this effort to be in the Derby. She beat a very ordinary field (my bet) or made a good field look ordinary (not likely). RACHEL and BOREL made this look oh, so easy. Against the boys in the Kentucky Derby she’d be tested early, middle, and late.
Consider her front-running style…she’d have to take on a speedy colt like REGAL RANSOM with QUALITY ROAD, a real physical specimen, in close attendance from the start in the Derby. PAPA CLEM and/or OLD FASHIONED still may author a breakout race in Arkansas which would add more fuel to fry RACHEL.
IF she was fast enough to put QUALITY ROAD and the other colts away (not sold), then she’d have to deal with I WANT REVENGE, a top if not THE top contender, along with DESERT PARTY and FRIESAN FIRE wearing on her in the middle of the race. IF she was classy enough to deter ‘REVENGE, ‘PARTY, AND ‘FIRE (unlikely), then PIONEEROF THE NILE or some combination of WIN WILLY/MUSKET MAN/CHOCOLATE CANDY/HOLD ME BACK will try to find the right trip the final 1/4 to take advantage of a spent RACHEL.
Putting her in the Derby this year, would be like sending your 15 year old daughter out to play running back for the varsity high school football team. In short, RACHEL would get clobbered.
Wouldn’t it be interesting to bet against RACHEL if the pace in the Oaks comes up spicy??? Nearly everyone’s off the STARDOM BOUND wagon after the Ashland. However, I remember a rather sub-par effort by STREET SENSE in the Blue Grass was a major reason he went off at 9-2 in his Derby win. I concede that STREET SENSE had proven dirt form prior to his Blue Grass 2nd…but couldn’t the synth/dirt question along with RACHEL’s effortless wins create an even better price on STARDOM BOUND in the Oaks??? WIth the right race shape and a fast dirt track, the 2y.o. champion could be an enticing price to regain her dominant juvenile form. Then, the Oaks/Derby double would be a playable proposition.
I’m moving over to I Want Revenge now that I’ve picked myself off the floor after The Pamplemousse left the trail.
At the Derby Gomez was wailing on Pioneerof the Nile, and it looked as if the next two would have overtaken him with another furlong. There’s something about the way that horse walks that I don’t like. And he has a skanky tail. I know, has nothing to do with speed.
Best looking horses seen on Derby Day: Rail Trip and Mr. Hot Stuff, brother of Colonel John I think(?) was an astonshingly great looking race horse. I felt that way the first time I saw Revenge too. But Mr. Hot Stuff doesn’t seem to have the earnings. We left after the Derby because the crowds were overwhelming.
I stick with horses I’ve seen because that’s the only handicapping advantage I have.
RACHEL got her last 1/4 in :24.71 and Borel never moved on her or asked her for any run at all. No telling how far she would have drawn off under urging…my guess is she had a :23.2 final 1/4 in her. She wouldn’t get away with a :47ish opening 1/2 in the Derby, but it’s clear she could contest an honest early pace at a comfortable cruising speed and still have plenty left late.
Great list! Pioneerof the Nile beat I Want Revenge twice already at Santa Anita. I don’t know why Revenge is #1 in the Derby pool by a big margin over him. He only ran triple digit Beyers because it was on the dirt. Pioneer should do same also when he switches to a dirt race. Empire Maker ran triple digit Beyers easy on the dirt track.
Stardom Bound’s race was dissapointing, I think they need to try running her from mid pack. She was too far back to make it to the front runners, but she was flying late.
I don’t know if anyone noticed, but Mr. Hot Stuff ran a very impressive third to POTN in the Derby. Watch a replay of the race, I just noticed, he had a ton of traffic problems and got cut off multiple times, i think this guys going to make some noise later on this year. Does he have the earning to go to the Derby?
Brian A, he’s 29 on the list, but quite a few drop outs above him.
Re: Mr. Hot Stuff. I can’t remember if it was Jill Byrne or not (my mind tells me it wasn’t), but whoever NBC had out on the track during the SA Derby said Mr. Hot Stuff looked like a baby amongst boys, and that he wasn’t very well defined. I must’ve have a horrible eye for horseflesh because when I saw him, I said to the wife “oh boy, he’s starting to look like a Tiznow, ain’t he?”
We both loved him. I was quietly pleased with his race. Honestly thought that race was going to go to Chocolate Candy when Pioneer started forcing the issue. He showed me something. Lesser horses would’ve been empty turning for home.
Don’t look now, but everything appears to be okay with Quality Road’s quarter crack:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/50078/quality-road-quarter-crack-not-serious
I Want Revenge has surged to the front of the poll. 9 out of 21 votes thus far.
The more you watch that Wood performance, the more amazing it becomes.
There will be quite a few that don’t make the earnings cut-off. No sense in making your ‘picks’ until then. Horses are fragile creatures at best – that is why racing’s TRIPLE CROWN is so hard to win – look for more defections from the list of K-DERBY hopefuls.
It has been reported that JEFF MULLINS trainer of ‘I WANT REVENGE’ is being investigated for ’suspicious conduct’ before the BAY SHORE HANDICAP. SUPPOSEDLY MULLINS WAS ‘CAUGHT’ GIVING ILLEGAL SUBSTANCES TO ONE OF HIS CHARGES. Will a suspension affect ‘I WANT REVENGE’s K-DERBY chances??? [Any break in routine could hurt - WE SHALL SEE WHAT DEVELOPS IN WHAT HAS BECIME AN ALL TOO FREQUENT SCENARIO OF TOP TRAINER'S ADMINISTERING PROHIBITED SUBSTANCES.]
If CROWDED HOUSE gets in with money earned – will be a EURO factor in the K-DERBY!!! AT THIS POINT DON’T KNOW IF HE IS HEADED FOR ‘THE STATES’ BUT HAS THE BREEDING + POSSIBLY THE ABILITY. GOOD LONG-SHOT FOR YOUSE TELEPHONE NUMBERS PLAYAHS IN EXACTAS, TRIPLES, SUPERS.
[...] early speed. He’s actually finished ahead of Pioneer of the Nile, who is currently 4th in the public voting on our Kentucky Derby poll, in both the Breeder’s Futurity and the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile. That’s really [...]
I’ll have to check him out, Zyskander. Hadn’t heard much about him before .
[...] purchased. I like this horse quite a bit and have been aggressively ranking him in my own Derby power rankings, but it doesn’t look like this race sets up his way on paper. I expect him to be flying [...]
[...] think we saw a colt who really grew up in a big way today, and his win adds depth to a 3-year-old division in need of another contender or two after The Pamplemousse was …. His next challenge will be handling the obvious class test looming in the distance. As [...]
[...] be diligently working on updated power rankings for the Kentucky Derby, and needless to say Papa Clem will be a fast riser when they are released tomorrow. Old [...]
Interesting that COA would rather ride MUSKET MAN than commit to GENERAL QUARTERS? YES/NO? But then jockeys aka ‘pinheads’ are at times notoriously bad at picking winning mounts(or there agents are?). WATCH THE MOST RECENT WORKS AS THIS FIELD AT FIRST GLANCE APPEARS VERY WELL MATCHED.
Very interesting! I guess he feels Musket Man is the better dirt runner?